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Was definitely a struggle to own Ike Davis in 2012.  Was uncomfortable like the air in the room when you find out on Christmas Eve that your crazy aunt is going to jail for seven years.  Take it from me, for Christmas, don’t buy her a nail file or black and white striped pajamas.  Or when she says she was railroaded, don’t comment that’s ironic because now you’re going to be working on the railroad.  Looks like I’m gonna need to update Who Is Grey Albright? for my jailbird aunt.  Thankfully, criminality skips a generation!  If you didn’t outright drop Davis in the first two months, you never appreciated when he turned his season around.  And, if you did drop him in the first two months, you really didn’t appreciate it.  For hitters with more than 175 plate appearances in the 1st half, he had the 12th worst average at .201 and the 2nd worst case of Valley Fever since Alicia Silverstone in Clueless.  Other than Rickie Weeks and Carlos Pena, Davis had the most ABs (268) from the bottom of the batting average charts pre-All-Star break, so he was causing a considerable amount of pain.  At the end of May, he was hitting .154…Shoot, he ended July hitting .208.  He only ended the season hitting .227, so it wasn’t like he Ichiro-slap-chopped balls for cheap hits at any point last year.  His career BABIP (after this horrendous year) is .292.  That would put his average in the .260 range with neutral luck.  For April through September, he had two months that were in that BABIP range.  In June, his BABIP was .288 and in August it was .294.  In those two months, he hit .264 and .287, respectively.  It wasn’t like he was super lucky to hit .287 one month. He just wasn’t unlucky.  The reason why we’re not talking about anything except average is because everything else was absolutely fine last year.  So, what can we expect from Ike Davis in 2013 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

He had the fifth most homers in the 2nd half with 20, and off Miggy’s 26 homer pace by justthatmuch.  His homers per at-bat was fourth in the league after the break, just behind Giancarlo, Miggy and Edwin Encarnacion.  His 1st half wasn’t even that bad for power (12 HRs, 49 RBIs, and the third best RBI total for anyone with an average under .240).  After the All-Star break, he had a top twenty OPS and near-40 homer pace if prorate his 2nd half numbers out over a full season.   If you go back to June (when his BABIP turned around briefly), he had a near-45 homer pace.  The one problem, and why he still isn’t an elite 1st baseman with neutral luck, his splits look like Molly Shannon’s from her SNL days.  Davis can’t hit lefties.  With or without luck…Well, unless his luck really turns and a leprechaun runs on the field to distract the fielders.  But all things being fair and less like a bad acid trip, he can’t hit southpaws.  Facing lefties in his career, he has a .277 BABIP (so not that unlucky) and a .217 average.  For 2013, I give him the overall line of 76/34/102/.259.  As mentioned above, he could hit 40+ bombs and make you want to adopt him as your new step daddy.  “Ike, tell me again how you’re coming cheaper than you should in 2013 fantasy baseball drafts….  Okay, will you tell me if I call you Mr. Davis and promise not to make up lies about you to Mom?”

  1. sean says:
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    Any advice for how to manage a player like Ike in a weekly league? Is it worth tinkering with a platoon and sitting him in lefty-heavy weeks? Sounds like a recipe for a lot of second guessing to me.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I could see benching him in a lefty heavy week… Chances are there will be at least one really strong lefty in the mix and you’re better off sitting him…

  2. AbNormal says:
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    Thanks for the post, just moved Davis up my draft board a bit, maybe around a R. Howard? What are your thoughts on Brandon Moss for next year? Is Oakland’s likely to still deploy him in that platoon at 1B? He got a shot at taking over the job?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, he’s above Howard… From what I’ve read and since it was successful last year, I don’t think Moss will be full time as of right now…

  3. Jack says:
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    But! — is he keepable at $17 in a custom (19 MLB teams) 5×5 roto league?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      That’s just barely fair… No great deal there…

      • Jack says:
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        @Grey: My sentiment exactly… Struggling with my second keeper… #1 is Trout for $16!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Well, at least you got that great one…

  4. Jon says:
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    Do you like Ike or Hosmer for 2013? Does Hosmer have more long-term keeper value?

  5. Bermuda Triangles says:
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    Speaking of 1Bs with bad luck…

    In a HTH standard keeper with a $300 budget

    I have Hosmer at $3 with the option to keep him the next 3 years… could you see keeping him at $3 over any of the following players (ie who would you drop from the following list of 6 keepers to make room for Hosmer)

    $4 S Castro
    $16 Y Cespedes
    $30 C Hamels
    $12 R Zimmerman
    $1 K Medlen
    $4 A Sanchez (this could also be $1 L Cain, $2 Al Ramirez, $24 A Jones, $1 V Martinez, $32 J Weaver, $1 T Clippard)

    Basically, who are your 6 keepers based on those prices?

    Thanks so much!
    Bermuda Triangles
    Get Lost!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I wouldn’t keep Sanchez over Hosmer…

  6. What do you think about Chris Davis and how do you compare the two? Ron Shandler has them at the same exact $ value ($19) i belive while hosmer is at $17 & howard is at $14 (LaRoche at $18).

    I’m inclined to draft the Davis’ over hosmer, laroche & howard in that order but dont know who i prefer between Ike & Chris (i haven’t done my own assessment of them two yet).

    Let me know what you think.

    Thanks,
    RB/Dano

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d go with Ike over Chris Davis…

  7. Sky

    Sky says:
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    Silly fun fact of the day that will hopefully change when the shizz gets real around here: MCD likes Chris Davis a full round higher than Ike Davis. Considering one got lucky as hell with their BA and the other got the shaft…je ne pense pas!!! Sorry, Rosetta Stone working a little too well. Probably shouldn’t fall asleep to it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I like the one with the shaft! Huh?

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @Grey: You’re daaaaaamn right.

  8. Todd says:
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    Off topic, but I noticed the worldwide leader has League tabbed as the Dodgers closer, not Jensen. Do you see this being the case? KJ has far better “closer stuff”…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      The Dodgers are saying it’s League, that will change as long as Jensen is healthy…

  9. Bryce Krispie Treats says:
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    I’ve been building and building and actually won the regular season in a 16 team head to head that lets you keep 12 but crapped out in the playoffs. What was intersting was that it was my pitrching that really did it for me. My staff was insane – Kershaw Felix Latos kuroda hudson anderson ( my last pick) Chapman holland
    I’ve been trying to build a great 5 year hold infield and hold my outfield for the best of the best, though i missed out on Trout for Harper (though I think I will win that one long term).
    rigt now I have to keep 12 and trade the best of the rest for draft picks.
    I would love to see a column on the value of pitcher keepers over hitter keepers in H2H . SAGNOF aside, does a chapman or kimbrell change things?
    Would I be nuts to trade a felix to hold more of these uber prospects?
    Do you think longterm updside of an ackley is better than that of a rutelidge?

    My projection is to keep
    Felix
    Kershaw
    Carlos Santana because someday he”ll have a samba for me
    Hosmer Rizzo
    Ackley
    Machado
    longoria
    stanton harper
    Moustakas Alvarez

    Tough cuts – j Kubel
    Oscar Tavares, Josh Rutelidge, Chapman Sheilds Latos Anderson…
    The format is standard full infield, 3 of and 3 u get started each week, and 4 pitchers and one reliever.
    I don’tknow what to do – any suggestions

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Chapman over Alvarez… I’d hold Felix… I’d go Latos over Ackley too… Ackley’s no great shakes as of right now… No reason to hold him…

  10. Big AL says:
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    I had Ike on 2 teams last year and waited for the funk to fall off him and finally benched him. He was my big Daddy sleeper last year. He slept for half the season.Couldn’t move him,so finally dropped him. You want to believe in him.He’s kinda like the Dad that went to the 7-11 store and never came back,but your Mom still sets a place for him for dinner.Maybe if he’s late round fodder or you need HR’S in a league. I kinda turned the page on him.
    On another subject. 12 team H2H need to pick one. Your man crush Giancarlo on a bad Marlin team.Or Votto coming off the knee injury ? I want you thinking with your big head on this one.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha, nice analogy… Votto over Giancarlo…

      • Big AL says:
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        @Grey: Thanks.That was the way I was leaning,but the HR potential is kinda blinding. The Runs and RBI’S are gonna take a hit.Votto gets Choo-Choo hitting in front of him too this year and I’m thinking a huge year for him. Besides I put a picture of Votto in my wallet. That’s not weird is it ?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Not as long as it’s not a naked self pic…

  11. prezii says:
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    Happy holidays grey and all of razzball nation! Couple more months and we can cuddle up in our matt adams’ snuggies and watch opening day with our mustaches wrapped around eachothers… Cant wait!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Happy holidays! My mustache with save you a warm spot…

  12. OaktownSteve says:
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    I don’t think the SABR stat community has caught up to the effect of the shift on BABIP. Hosmer, Davis, Teixieria and many more all have BABIPs that refuse to regress to the established mean. They all hit heavy into the shift. I’d like to see some numbers. Why don’t you have one of your many Razzball research minions get on it? I seriously may downgrade batting average in my own charts for guys who I know face the shift.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Please… I need minions! You’re probably right… Those three guys have been killed by the shift…

  13. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    With respect to Miggy projections for 2013, the following compares the average HR/RBI/BA for the most recent 10 triple crown winners with their succeeding year:

    Most recent 10 TC winners: HR/RBI/BA
    TC Year: 41/136/.351
    YR Next: 29/107/.330
    PRCT Dif: 73%/79%/94%

    w/o Ted Williams: HR/RBI/BA
    TC Year: 33/108/.273
    YR Next: 22/79/.251
    PRCT Dif: 52%/56%/72%

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I think you’re comparing apples and oranges…

      • Simply Fred

        simply fred says:
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        @Grey: Cool. I’ll quote you next October!

        comparing triple crown winners with triple crown winners–that’s apples to apples in my book. would think it would be tough to replicate that year.

    • Simply Fred

      simply fred says:
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      @simply fred: the last line ‘PRCT Dif’ obviously didn’t copy correctly. it should be:

      67%/73%/92%

  14. Molly Lee says:
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    Moving forward, in a keeper league, which 3 do you prefer, and in what order? Jason Hammel, Anibal Sanchez, Ryan Cook, Trevor Bauer, AJ Griffin, Mike Zunino, or Brandon Moss? Thanks, handsome. Great new website, btw!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Bauer, Anibal, Moss… Thank you, beautiful!

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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      @Molly Lee: Shoosh. A keeper league where those guys are being considered? Is that a 30-team league? Bauer and Sanchez are legit. The others are not who I would be looking to keep in a normal 12-team league.

      To answer the question, Bauer and Sanchez and then pull a name from a hat.

  15. Bob says:
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    Definitely going to pay more attention to Ike in the next few months. Thanks.

    Seems like there is better semi-sleeper depth at 1B this year with guys like Ike Davis and Rizzo sitting around with .280, 30+HR upside…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, agreed…

  16. Steve says:
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    Yo – hope everyone’s holidays are going well. Sun’s finally come out here!

    I don’t mind Olney usually, but watching him defend his HOF ballot on Twitter is kind of amusing, if a-m-u-s-i-n-g is how you spell baffling.

    Sorry to go off-topic…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      What was his ballot?

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: Upfront, I need to say (and this might put me in a minority here), that I think drug cheats don’t deserve to be in the HOF. And yeah, I know there are drug cheats in there now. To that, I say, throw them out too.

        Anyhoo, Olney has voted for, amongst others, Bonds, Clemens, Sosa, McGwire and Palmeiro. His reasoning is that these guys are all held to be ‘of good standing’ by MLB and the HOF. So he is just voting for the best guys from that bunch.

        Never mind that MLB wouldn’t know ‘good standing’ if it jumped up and bit them on the elbow, and stood by and did SFA while all the juicing was going on. Indeed, used the home run chase to promote the game.

        Nice way to avoid the moral argument there, Buster…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s become a bit thankless now to vote for the HOF… I don’t think those five deserve to be in the HOF because they are obvious steroid cheats… But I bet I can guess his argument that during that era who’s to say Bagwell didn’t cheat… Just because he wasn’t caught? I guess I’d vote for guys that weren’t caught… So I’d either be voting for better cheats or guys that were actually clean…

  17. costaricanchata says:
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    ike should adopt molly’s armpit smelling technique , while in the batter’s box .
    might change his “luck” .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Could work, who’s to say?

  18. costaricanchata says:
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    tough choices today .

    go to ocean beach , where the water temperature is 82 degrees ,
    or to the river waterfall , where the water is closer to 70 degrees .

    any advice ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m looking at 3-6 inches of snow in NY so I’d take either… You seem more like a beach/boogie board man though…

  19. In a long-term league, Maestro, would you rank Ike over fellow first-basers Goldschmidt and Belt*?

    (*If you say “Goldschmidt and Belt” in a German accent it sounds pretty funny. I pounce on life’s little pleasures….)

    Danke!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha! Not over Goldschmidt… Way over Belt…

  20. Brian says:
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    Grey- got offered Votto ($33) for Goldschmidt ($9) and Jennings ($6).

    12 team keeper roto league ($260 budget) non-OPS. Goldschmidt can be kept for 2 more years after this (at $14-$19); Jennings has one more year after this (@ $11). Votto has no more options.

    We can keep six, and I have 7 legit keepers (maybe 8 if KJensen comes back)- so I’m trying to package 2 for 1. In addition to Goldschmidt and Jennings, I have Cargo (19- no more years), Bumgarner (11- one more year at 16), Gio (9- two more at 14-19), Rizzo (1- two more at 6-11), Hamilton (23- no more years), and K Jensen at 6 (w 2 yrs at 11-16).

    Would you make the deal, or try and package someone else from above? If i don’t make the trade, who you think are my 6 keepers?

    Thanks for your help!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Try to trade Bumgarner and Hamilton for one big piece… If not then do the Votto trade…

  21. The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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    grey, how high are you going to be on Kris Medlen next year? I got into a little twitter battle with ray flowers last night, he was saying how he has no trust in Medlen and is not high on him this year. I salivate over medlen twice a day and 4x on fridays…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I like him a lot for next year… Any time a guy has an insane K-rate and a solid walk rate you should be excited about him… If you’re not, you’re just guessing about an injury or some other nonsense gut call…

  22. Marty says:
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    12 team root mixed league. I can keep 6 players but lose the round.

    J Bautista round 27
    Frazier r 31
    Smjardjzia 29
    A Craig 23
    Rios 16
    Bumgarmer 19
    J upton 5
    Andrus 11
    Billy Hamilton 30
    Verlander 3

    Which 6 do you keep?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Bautista, Craig, Bumgarner, Samardzija, Frazier, Upton…

  23. Marty says:
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    Bumgarmer is round 10 not 19

  24. Hats for Bats says:
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    What does New Years Eve Grey think of Stanton for next year with an anemic sushi lineup down in Miami?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He thinks Giancarlo can still get 85+ runs and 105+ RBIs…

  25. Zigs says:
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    Grey need your advice on my 8th and final keeper. Currently keeping Pujols Castro Zimmerman Stanton Bats J. Upton and Madison B. final keeper choices are Ike, Willingham, Werth, Altuve, Niese, or Brett Anderson. Loved the article on Ike and I could see hit topping off at 40hr. Also really like Niese. What are your thoughts? Thanks and Happy New Year!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Go with Ike… You can take newest comments to my latest post…

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