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Next up, we have the award for Who’s Most Likely to Be the Mark Reynolds of 2010?  The camera finds Chris Davis in the audience, grasping his Mom’s hand.  The camera pans to Mat Gamel, who’s fumbling with his drink.  Finally, the camera lands on Ian Stewart seated next to a mini donkey.  And the winner is… Well, dur.  You see the title of the post.  First, let’s see the “con” coincidences, going into 2009.  Mark Reynolds was battling Chad Tracy for an every day spot.  Check!  Ian Stewart’s not guaranteed time.  Mark Reynolds hasn’t seen many pitches he doesn’t like.  Check!  Ian Stewart’s strikeout rate last year was 32.5%.  (Mark Reynolds was at 38.6%.)  Mark Reynolds and Ian Stewart both had a walk rate of 11.6% in 2009.  But enough of the negatives, we’re familiar with those.  Let’s look at the positives on why Ian Stewart is a 2010 fantasy baseball sleeper.

Last year, in 425 ABs, Stewart hit 25 homers.  With an every day job, he should get close to 30 homers.  On Bill James’s Speed Score, where the average is 5, last year Mark Reynolds had a 4.8; Ian Stewart had a 5.2.  Ian Stewart probably won’t steal 24 bases, but, frankly, Reynolds shouldn’t have stole that many either.  Stewart is more likely to steal 10 to 15 bases with an every day job.  Ian Stewart’s career BABIP is .310; last year he had a .275 mark.  So rather than the .228 average last year, that pushes him close to .250 average.  Because average is so fickle, Stewart should hit anywhere from .260 to .230.  At .260, he won’t kill you.  You need some luck there, but as you saw with Reynolds last year, it could happen.  One huge positive for Stewart, he has 2nd base eligibility.  So the worst case scenario is he’s a cheap Uggla.  But it all comes back to an every day job, right?  With his flexibility, I think he can easily sneak in 450 at-bats.  If he gets hot at the right time, he could see 500+ ABs.  Honestly, I wouldn’t have given Reynolds more than that going into 2009 either.  Will Stewart hit 44 homers and steal 24 bases like Mini Donkey?  Aw, heck’s no.  But no one saw that coming from Reynolds either.  Ian Stewart can hit 30 homers with 10 steals and a .260 average.  Also, there’s power upside for more.  At 2nd or 3rd base, that’s a nice little sleeper for 2010 fantasy baseball.

  1. big o says:
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    well , Simply Fred is certainly buying this particular flavor of kool-aid ,
    as he’s drafted this under-achiever in every single mock draft
    that he’s done , so far , this off-season .

    i think i’d rather go with lawrence jones ,
    and whatever the soup du jour is ,
    as back-up .

    i’ll look elsewhere
    to make up the 12 stolen bases .

  2. Tony says:
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    Who is going to push stewart for PT?

    Why do i like and want to own half of the rockies offense?

    I definitely want Car-GO, TULO, and Stewart…. and fowler is another interesting case….

  3. Tony says:
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    wow- and whats with the orioles talking about Holliday, Agon, and signing Atkins, and Mike Gonzalez?

    WILD. I think the orioles feel left out in the Big boy league sometimes and like to throw bids at guys like Teixiera, etc to make themselves feel better, when in reality they know they’re not going to get them.

  4. sean says:
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    @Tony: Bingo! The O’s are just trying to get the fans wet. They don’t have any intention of making a buy other than a 3B on the cheap.

    @Tony: Re: PT: Stewart seems to have the 3B job to himself, but the 2B eligibility from last year is clutch. He may play 10 games in the OF. He may play 5 games at 2B. I think he’ll see 350+ ABs as the starting 3B. Call me old fashioned, but seeing him at 3B makes me more comfortable with his ability to slug than if he was manning 2B.

    @Grey: Trade Rumors was really pumping the AGone to the Sox bit that Olney and the other ESPN rumor mongers were pushing on the kids. Not sure why on Earth they’d give up Ellsbury and Buchholz for Adrian (who has youth on his side but whose skill set does not age gracefully) when they wouldn’t offer them together in a deal for Halladay…

  5. Tony says:
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    @sean: I’d only like stewart at 3B better b/c 3B is so shallow. OR SO IT SEEMS. Each year you think a position is shallow 4 guys fly in outta no where and give depth. If he can go 30/10 at 2B thats pretty nice too for a 2Bagger….

    I doubt the Pads move AGON, why would they deal him with 2 years on the contract, its as dumb as what Cleveland did with Cliff Lee. Ellsbury and Bucholz sounds like alot to me, who knows tho, we’ve seen crazier in the last 5 days….

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: Wow, didn’t check the news before putting this up. Yeah, with Atkins officially gone, the job’s Stewart’s.

    @sean: I’m reading A-Gon to Sox is remote at best.

  7. Tony says:
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    @Grey: clear the path rockies, clear the path…. mini-donkey2 is coming…..

    SLOW DAY OR WHAT, did everyone take a sick day? LOL

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: We should’ve had you make a clay trophy with a Reynolds head and donkey body to present to Stewart. Wait… Why am I having deja vu? Did I or someone say that already?

  9. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @big o: You can bring a Big Ol’ horse to water, but you can’t make him drink. :-)

  10. Stephen says:
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    Now that Stewart has the job, lets keep mum on his mini-donkey status so he can stay a bargain. Grey, I think you sold/persuaded me enough to make sure he’s on my team this year.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Stephen: Assuming you won’t have to draft him until around the 120th pick mark, there’s not much downside.

  12. Tony says:
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    @Grey: haha, that would be funny… i have not been asked. Haven’t made any trophies yet this year, been doing alot of painting, art teacher…. livin’ the dream.

  13. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    Found Bill James’ hitters and pitchers projections for 2010 at the link at the bottom. Looks as if the site gets around copywrite laws by providing the link to purchase the book (so I will to):
    http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0879464070?ie=UTF8&tag=fantabaseb-20&linkCode=as2&camp=1789&creative=9325&creativeASIN=0879464070
    I was able to copy and past into a sortable spreadsheet. Here’s the link to the tables:
    http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/209927/Projections_from_Bill_James_Handbook_2010.pdf

  14. Vic Vinegar says:
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    what do you guys think of this trade:

    i get Justin Upton and Tulo

    for

    Grady Sizemore and Carlos Lee

    it’s a longterm keeper league, so i’m tempted to unload Lee now while he’s still productive, and i’m hoping Upton and Tulo will combine to make up for Grady’s SBs. i hate to get rid of Grady, but i think you can make a case that Upton is already about even with him.

  15. Tony says:
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    @Vic Vinegar: do it great deal for you, cash in on lee, and upton is comparable if not better than grady…. wouldn’t even hesitate

  16. Tony says:
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    @Vic Vinegar: Upton could go 30/30 this year, i think the little bit more power and sb’s grady might give you are brought back to even with Uptons better average.

    Tulo is 10X’s better than carlos lee… fills your SS position with what i see as the 2nd to 3rd best SS in baseball….

  17. Quintero says:
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    Too bad Nick Johnson is not a pull hitter…otherwise he could be a lovely later round flier at the Jetstream…

    @Vic Vinegar: If it’s a long term keeper league, I’d want the Justin Upton/Tulo side for sure.

  18. Steve says:
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    Last day of work for the 09 – and it’s also moving day.

    That’s all I got.

    Oh – and I have Stewart as a $5 keeper. I know you said I could get him back in the auction, but I’m thinking Al K or Hippo would grab him out of spite…

  19. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Steve: What, no Big O love?

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Nice, good luck on the move! Stewart’s a $5 to $10 player, so $5 is good but don’t you have better keepers?

  21. Steve says:
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    @Grey: I do, and we can pick up on it in the forum thread in the new year.

    Just didn’t want the comment to be ALL about me, so threw a little relevance in there.

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Hehe… It’s always about you anyway! You gonna do anything over your vacation besides move or is that going to take the bulk of the time?

  23. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Nice! When do I get to vacay with the Lyons?

  24. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You’d be welcome anytime.

    “Yeah, are you OK to mind the kids for the whole day? Grey and I are just off to the bar… “

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Hehe… That sounds wonderful. I’m off to visit family in Delaware. I’m guessing your vacation is nicer than Delaware. Wait, anything’s nicer than Delaware.

  26. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Well, I’ve never been to Delaware, so I couldn’t say ;-)

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: You’re best to trust me.

  28. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    hey mr. techno :
    i don’t know if this is of interest to you ,
    ‘cuz i have no idea what the guy is talking about .
    http://paulsporer.com/

    if you take the headline personally ,
    you’re prolly reading too much in to it .

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Wonder what you had to Google to find something re: tools.

  30. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    actually ,
    doing an AL only mock draft with this guy .

    was that shizz good stuff ?

  31. big o says:
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    @Grey:
    not to get all high-tech on you , but ,
    my wife bought me a half wheel
    of french raclette , from this place ,
    http://www.igourmet.com
    for my birthday .

    LOVE THAT GIRL .

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: re: Paul, Not helpful for me, but thanks for the heads.

    re: gift, Wow! And she deals with you? You do have a good woman. So when are we invited over the O’s for cheese and crackers?

  33. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: And, of course, happy birthday!

  34. DrEasy says:
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    @big o: Looks like you enter a player’s name in the box, and it creates a link to the player’s profile on Fangraphs. You can then use the link in whatever article you’re writing about the player.

  35. GopherDay says:
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    @Grey: I want A-Gonz to be dealt right after my fantasy draft.

  36. big o says:
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    @DrEasy:
    ok …. thanks .
    i thought it could be used to give a site more exposure .
    generate more traffic , etc .

  37. HotCorner says:
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    Got I.S. late in a 10 team league after already drafting I.K. Good thing cause I.K. is on da shelf (newsflash).

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