Comments on: Ian Desmond, 2010 Fantasy Outlook

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 16:12:37 +0000

@AJ: The Nats are supposedly moving Guzman to 2nd for Desmond, so he should get 400+ ABs. @bourquer: Maybe a little hype, but he's still a Nats player. Depends on your league, but I see him lasting to the end rounds of a draft.

By: bourquer

bourquer — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 15:19:43 +0000

how late do you think he will last in the drafts? do you think there will be much hype about him come spring?

By: AJ

AJ — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 11:19:23 +0000

So what are the odds that the Nats actually open the season with him at short, and he garners 400+ at-bats? If a 10/20 season is a realistic possibility, then I’m guessing that it must be a legitimate option for them at this point? Hmm, interesting.

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 06:29:41 +0000

@brett: Don't sell yourself short, I liked the bears better.

By: brett

brett — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:44:58 +0000

@Steve: Wow. My go-to clip of bears playing hockey has nothing on that.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nah3nMStXV4

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:40:36 +0000

@Freak: Hmm... No, Esmailyn Gonzalez is Lugo now. Desmond's always been Desmond. I think.

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:38:44 +0000

@Freak: His Wikipedia page doesn't even know. Get his Moms on the line.

By: Freak

Freak — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 05:24:56 +0000

So is his name Ian Desmond or Carlos Lugo?

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:41:39 +0000

@Grey: You're a hard man to please. I don't feel quite right about it, but it is without doubt one of the best clips I've ever seen.

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 03:40:20 +0000

@Steve: I was slightly disappointed there weren't any monkey judges.

By: royce!

royce! — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:58:11 +0000

@sean: That’s precisely my point. The whole thing gets confusing because what you define as “tHR” is “Standard Distance” on Hit Tracker. From their Glossary:

Std Distance (Standard Distance) – The estimated distance in feet the home run would have traveled if it flew uninterrupted all the way down to field level, and if the home run had been hit with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level. Standard distance factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.

And what Hit Tracker defines as “True Distance” is actually just, and I’m paraphrasing, “how far the ball would have traveled given the atmospheric conditions if some fan [or in the Nats case, seat], didn’t get in the way.”

So, as I said, the word “true” is being used differently on Hit Tracker than sabermatricians tend to use it. It probably has something to do with fantasy baseball managers having a liberal concept of truth. I, for example, think that my 2009 h2h team was truly better than the guy’s that knocked me out of the playoffs. And no one can convince me otherwise. But I wouldn’t consider myself a sabermatrician. More like a stubborn ass.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:44:55 +0000

That monkey serving the beer in the bar? Well, he needs to kow that there is a new kid in town:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pOj_QoSH6is

By: sean

sean — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 02:28:31 +0000

@royce!: true as the sabermetricians seem to use it refers to neutral distance... or park/weather independent distance. basically, as i understand tHR, it's used to determine the quality of the contact a hitter makes when he blasts a homer -- you want guys that hit "no doubters" because his near misses may actually leave the park whereas a guy with less power flies out.

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:58:20 +0000

@royce!: Yeah, I saw that homer too when I was researching. I also read somewhere he hit the longest homer at home for the Nats all year and included that tidbit in a daily roundup during the year, but I couldn't find where I originally read that to verify it again. @bob: I'd take the Braun side. @Mark: Agreed

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:46:11 +0000

@Steve: You had to ask?

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:43:10 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Stripper pole?

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:42:09 +0000

@Steve: Cool, then you don't even need a door! I'm trying to bootheel this place up so I feel more at home...........

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:39:28 +0000

@BigFatHippo: Ha! Unlike the French Quarter, our can is actually inside the house.

By: BigFatHippo

BigFatHippo — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:36:55 +0000

@Steve: You’re gonna love the new house, you get to poop with the door open while browsing your fantasy baseball magazines………………….

Or that could just be me.

By: Steve

Steve — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 01:05:33 +0000

@AL KOHOLIC: Nah - still at the in-laws. Don't move into the new one til December 18.

By: AL KOHOLIC

AL KOHOLIC — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:39:20 +0000

@Steve: steve,did you get in to your house yet,or are you still cooking for mom?

By: Mark

Mark — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:23:29 +0000

Not nearly in the young player category that Beckham, Andrus, or even Coghlan are in but someone to watch nonetheless.

By: bob

bob — Tue, 01 Dec 2009 00:15:21 +0000

What do you think of this deal;

Braun/Verlander/Nolasco/T. Snider
or
Halladay/Holliday/Danks/I. Stewert

keeper league.

By: royce!

royce! — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:59:54 +0000

I think that the name “true distance” is strangely misleading… As I understand it, Desmond’s first HR was hit 428 feet (it’s True Distance (distance it would have traveled had there been no obstacles)). Had he hit it “with no wind, in 70 degree air at sea level,” (it’s Standard Distance) it would have traveled 434 feet. Perhaps it feels misleading because in the sabermetric the word “true” seems to get employed in the same way that “standard” is being used here, i.e., “truth” is used as a term describing what we would expect if all the variables were standardized.

Apparently his last HR of the season went 445 feet (https://secure.mlb.com/media/video.jsp?mid=200910036989655&c_id=was). Funny, cause it looked like his first HR went further…which I guess justifies hittracker’s existence.

By: AL KOHOLIC

AL KOHOLIC — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:36:16 +0000

@Steve: youve got a good group of keepers already,pure power hitters cost to much to keep,so im hoping to grab a couple in the auction,and as grey has stated pitching is inpredictable

By: Grey

Grey — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 23:03:58 +0000

@mrbaseball: I think you'll be good there. @sean: As I mentioned in the forum on Sunday (and on the blog before), last year I had some combo of Haren, Wainwright, Wandy, Cain and Wolf on all of my teams. Only Haren was in the first half of the draft. There's always pitching bargains.

By: sean

sean — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 22:47:58 +0000

Pitching will be really interesting this year. After Lincecum, your guess is as good as mine. I can’t say that I’d be itchy to pull the trigger on Greinke, Haren, or even King Felix in the third round.

Early ADP out of some SPs that are on my radar for 2010. Obviously this list doesn’t have the stability of a real front end guy and has some risk, but it looks like there are a lot of bargains to be had without taking a pitcher in the first half of the draft.

Beckett (96)
Nolasco (110)
Jimenez (121)
Shields (122)
Garza (125)
Billingsley (130)
Baker (159)
Wandy (163)
EJackson (170)
Floyd (191)

By: mrbaseball

mrbaseball — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 21:44:10 +0000

I expect Ian Desmond to be my starting shortstop in my 20 team keeper league next you – dynasty keeper league

By: Steve

Steve — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 21:29:47 +0000

@AL KOHOLIC: Just remember, I'll be a year wiser in 2010.

By: Grey

Grey — Mon, 30 Nov 2009 21:18:29 +0000

@AL KOHOLIC: I agree, that's why I leaned towards Vazquez. Jones, Nolasco and Gallardo you can always get back.