Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Matt Holliday is a sell.  Zoinks!  Holliday’s value does go up with this trade to the Cards.  But his value doesn’t skyrocket as it seems most people will now think.  Remember, this is Matt “Shin-Soo Choo Has Better Numbers Than Me” Holliday.  In the National League, where there’s better pitching and less Runs scored, suddenly Matt Holliday has a ton of value?  Way more value than he had in Oakland?  Why, because Oakland was a bad team and the Cards were a great team?  Oakland actually had a better OBP than St. Louis (though that includes Holliday).  Better ballpark?  This year Oakland Coliseum actually ranks above Busch for offense.  Holliday will suddenly readjust his sonar for NL pitchers?  That didn’t work so well when he moved to the AL.  Listen, I think Holliday’s a terrific hitter, but to suddenly expect him to cure gout is asking too much.  I wouldn’t sell Holliday for a box of Cinnamon Toast Crunch, but I’d explore offers.  Anyway, here’s some more players to buy or sell this week in fantasy baseball:

BUY

Chone Figgins – I don’t like Figgins.  He reminds me of Grover Dill to Vlad’s Scut Farkus.  More than that, I think you put yourself in an ugly hole if you have a 3rd baseman who gets you less than 5 homers on the year (though that hasn’t stopped me from touting Alex Gordon before).  But this is about something else.  This is about do or die time in fantasy leagues.  It’s coming up with fantasy baseball trading deadlines approaching faster than ever.  (It’s true, it’s faster this year.  Has to do with gravity or some shizz.)  So you have the Dwarf Planet (Pablo Sandoval) at third and you’re fine in the outfield with a bunch of big boppers (minus Richie Valens and Buddy Holly), but you’re stuck in third place and need steals.  Steals are the easiest thing to catch up in (saves being a close second).  Chone Figgins may not have been appealing to you (or I) on draft day, but right now you need steals and Figgy can provide them.  Or Bourn.  Or Taveras.  Or Ellsbury.  Or random schmohawk SAGNOF’er behind door number three.  Time is not your friend.  Do what you do, but Figgins is a very viable option if you need steals.  So… Figgy, give me one more chance…. (Notice how I didn’t mention his Runs or average.  His steals, that’s why you get him.)  (Notice II, this paragraph has more sidenotes than a David Foster Wallace story.  (You went way too soon.))

Chris Perez/Jon Rauch/Jim Johnson – Potential vulture SAGNOF’ers.

Matt Thornton – With Bobby being jenky, Thornton’s a decent vulture to look at for potential saves.  Though the White Sox have a pretty deep bullpen so it’s probably not that clear cut.

Seth Smith – The Rox are saying Smith is their every day leftfielder.  He could hit 10+ homers and some steals with full time play, but I still doubt he sees many ABs vs. lefties.  So his name is about as boring as his stats.  Talk about selling a buy!  Smith’s worth a spot in deep leagues, I wouldn’t bother with him in 12 team leagues yet.

Erick Aybar – Okay, Alex, Aybar Brothers for $300.  This Aybar brother has seven homers and a .282 average.  Who is Erick?  Sorry, that would be Willy.  Aybar Brothers for $400.  This Aybar brother is batting .417 in his last four games.  Who is Erick?  Sorry, still Willy.  Okay, let’s finish the category.  This Aybar brother is batting .483 in the last 7 games, has stolen two bags and plays every day.  Who is Willy?  No, it’s Erick.  You might think about auditioning for Wheel of Fortune.

Miguel Montero – Honestly, the D’Backs shouldn’t play Sndyer when he returns.  Miggy Pipp is doing work with his lumber stick.

Daric Barton – In his first start filling in for Giambi, Barton hit a homer.  Since then he’s made Nadir Bupkus look promising.  Doode needs to do much better with the time he’s getting while Giambi nurses his no ‘roids problem.  But all of that aside, Barton’s still worth a look in AL-Only leagues.

Chris Tillman – If the Orioles bring him up, and it seems like they will, he could be a solid guy for matchups.  Just don’t drop anyone too valuable in one year leagues because the Orioles schedule gets ugly in September.

Steve Pearce – Member when he went by Steven?  Ah, maybe I’m showing my age.  Pearce was recalled from Indianapolis on June 21st and has played once since July 8th.  Here’s what I think happened.  The Pirates bought a ticket for Ian Snell to be recalled, he said he was having too much fun in Indianapolis (I’ve been to Indianapolis; Snell may want to redefine fun), so Snell gave his ticket to Pearce.  Pearce should get some time at first with LaRoche outta there.  At one time, Pearce was a decent prospect, tis the reason he’s even here.  Tis indeed.

Jon Niese – I think he’s underseasoned like your Mom’s cooking, but he is in the NL and in Metco.  Matchups could work for him.

Rajai Davis – Rajai Davis is a buy and Holliday’s a Sell?  What’s the world coming to?  With Holliday out of town, Rajai could see more time.  SAGNOF!

SELL

Colby Rasmus – Rasmus was a sell two weeks ago.  With the Holliday trade, things are only going to get worse.

Kerry Wood/Chad Qualls/George Sherrill – The Trading Deadline Reaper may be cutting off their saves.

Ricky Romero – Really, I could’ve put any young pitcher here whose innings are starting to creep up.  Young pitchers will begin to get skipped and shutdown to preserve their arms.

Jarrod Washburn – Watching Washburn ’09 vs. Washburn Oh-earlier in his career is like watching any Batman not directed by Joel Schumacher right after any Batman directed by Joel Schumacher.  Everything is pointing to Washburn being a solid starter going forward, but I can’t tell you to grab a guy that I wouldn’t grab myself.  I’m sorry, I don’t trust Washburn as far as I can throw him. (And I can’t throw him very far — I mean, look at my mustachioed picture — that’s actual size.)

Garrett Jones – Blasphemy!  I don’t think he’s going to hit another 9 homers in his next ten games.  That’s all I’m saying.  Don’t shoot the messenger.  (BTW, isn’t it weird how the phrase don’t shoot the messenger was out there since Shakespeare (thanks, Wikipedia!) then everyone starting going postal? It’s almost like postal employees felt too safe and abused their power.  Or not!  These are things for you to decide.)

197 Responses

  1. Charlie says:
    (link)

    This just became my favorite fantasy baseball site on the net. David Foster Wallace reference in a Chone Figgins write up? That’s a Buy.

  2. brad says:
    (link)

    Grey, does advising me to trade Quentin for Reynolds mean DON’T trade BJ for Reynolds if trading partner scoffs at Q? Or would you still do it (albeit with more reluctance)?

    Thanks man, you’re the best.

  3. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Charlie: Thanks!

    @brad: Don’t trade BJ for Reynolds.

  4. DrEasy says:
    (link)

    Sidenotes in David Foster Wallace books drive me N U T S !

  5. AdamMN says:
    (link)

    Would you trade Holliday for one of those giant boxes of Cinnamon Toast Cruch like you get at Costco?

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @DrEasy: Him too, unfortunately.

    @AdamMN: Two of them.

  7. GTS says:
    (link)

    I’m grabbing Harang and starting him at util after his 3-run bomb.

  8. chris says:
    (link)

    I currently own both Holliday and Rasmus in a Dynasty Keeper League. Now I could never move Rasmus since his future is so bright. However, you don’t see a significant spike in Holliday’s future numbers? He is surrounded by people who can hit (Ludwick, DeRosa, Pujols, Rasmus, Shumaker, Molina) and while the NL pitching is better…Holliday hit much better in senior circuit alas it was in Coors. Would you actively shop Holliday trying to land a ransom or would you field offers?

  9. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @chris: I’d want a top hitter or pitcher for Holliday, so I’d want a ransom. I’m not saying to sell Holliday for three spare parts. I’d want a 2nd rounder-type level guy at the worse.

  10. Beau says:
    (link)

    @Grey: After telling me to get cordero and mclouth for him?

  11. Okay, I’m a Holliday owner who’s pleased he’s being released from the As — so pleased that I’ll celebrate this day, July 24, every year from now on, as my own personal Holliday holiday — so take this with a grain of salt.

    But a few questions:

    1) Is it not much better for Holliday that he’ll be hitting behind the most feared hitter in baseball? As opposed to behind Jack Cust and Scott Hairston? Couldn’t part of Holliday’s struggles in Oakland be attributed to the fact that HE WAS THE ONLY MAJOR LEAGUE HITTER IN THE LINEUP?

    2) Are the pitchers in the NL really better? When did we decide that? Isn’t the AL the “harder league”? I mean, the NL pitchers may have better numbers, thanks to facing only 8 hitters each game (and Gallardo).

    I just remember when Holliday went to the AL everyone was all like, “He’ll have to adjust to the harder league.” Now he’s headed back to the NL — that can’t also be the harder league! They can’t both be harder!

    3) Even if the pitchers are better, he should know them better. Yes?

    4) He will run more in St. Louis. Right? I mean, that seems logical.

    5) Every once in awhile, there’s someone who gets traded to a pennant contender and, for a few months, they play with their hair on fire. Think Doyle Alexander, once upon a time. Think Jason Bay, once upon a last year. Think Manny. A change of scenery can be good for you, especially when it means you’re no longer looking at Mark Ellis and instead you’re looking at Albert Pujols.

    I mean, imagine you’re a baseball player. Imagine you get traded to a mediocre team with a lousy lineup, and people are saying you’ll get traded again from your very first day there.

    Now imagine you get traded from said lousy team to a playoff-contending team with a strong lineup and beautiful crisp white uniforms, and everyone’s saying you’re the missing piece to the puzzle and, oh, by the way, you’re playing for a free agent contract. Would you not wake up with a spring in your step? Would you not waggle the bat somewhat more ferociously?

    Would you maybe even, I don’t know, get inspired by the pennant-race and go on a three-week tear during which time you carry your team — much like the very tear Holliday went on in 2007 in September with the Rockies?

    6) Is Oakland even a major-league team any more? They are to the rest of baseball as the WFL was to the NFL. See also: Pittsburgh.

    If I was an Oakland fan I’d be burning my season tickets in effigy right now.

  12. GTS says:
    (link)

    Holliday ($13)/G. Jones for someone like Braun ($7)?

  13. zk says:
    (link)

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Sing it, sister! I factored Pujols hitting behind him into my pre-season projections. It’s called a gut, and I have a large and hairy one.

  14. chris says:
    (link)

    Yeah I won’t be shipping him for nothing, I was just wondering if you were recommending actively shopping him.

  15. big o says:
    (link)

    @Baron Von Vulturewins:
    we knew it was just a marketing ploy all along .
    season tickets were never a consideration .
    we just buy single game tickets … and cheap ones , at that , and sit where we want .
    of course , we’ve been doing that for 3 years now , waiting for the much heralded return of chavez .
    ha !

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Beau: That’s two players. I’m confused. Huh?

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Everything you say seems logical. But he only hit one homer in September last year and 25 homers in Coors all of last year. He also hit 12 homers in that September month and that was the most he ever hit in any month in his career. (Though his 2006 September was close.) All I’m saying is for the first time in a long time, Holliday has more perceived value than actual value. For a guy with 12 homers and batting .280, that’s a feat.

    @GTS: I’d take Braun there.

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Grey: It’s actually 11 homers.

  18. Fade says:
    (link)

    Have to admit, Grey, your reasoning is alittle batty.

    The NL always scores less runs because of no DH. That’s nothing new. Take the cumulative offensive statistics for all AL DH’s and compare them to the same statistics for all NL pitchers. I think a disparity would come at no surprise. Or even take each AL team’s worst offensive starter and compare them to the statistics of all NL pitchers. This doesn’t mean that a particular player’s move to the NL means he’ll be worse.

    Also, I wouldn’t say the NL has better pitching. They simply play against lesser hitters – again a product of no DH. Of the top 10 fantasy SPs to date, 5 of them are from the AL, and 5 are from the NL.

    We also can’t forget that batting in between Hairston and Cust is much different than between Pujols and Ludwick. Regardless of current statistics, Busch is less spacious than Oakland.

    Better lineup, better pitches, better park, more familiar and less talented pitchers = all positives. He’s been a top 50 hitter so far this season. One can only expect that to improve.

  19. DrEasy says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Ha!

    Verlander is single-handedly killing my White-Sox-heavy roster’s offensive categories.

  20. Robert says:
    (link)

    If the other guy would go for it, Lackey&Hanson for Braun is a steal, correct?

  21. @Grey: It’s true that his power numbers in Coors were inflated by a few monster months as well as, well, Coors.

    I don’t see him at more than, say, 25 HRs this year. That means he’s got 14 more in his bat. I’ll take every one of them.

    I also don’t think you can underestimate the effect of a very good hitter surrounded by unintimidating hitters. I am learning this lesson in a painful way with Miggy Cabrera, currently protected in the order by, er, Marcus Thames. If I’m a pitcher, I’m serving a four-course meal of slop to Miggy, then taking my chances with Old Man River.

    Now, if you’re facing the Cards, the guy you have to take your chances with is Holliday. I say he sees more fat pitches, and smokes more of them, too.

    In short: Me parading, you raining.

  22. Beau says:
    (link)

    I think its safe to say we dont really know what Holliday we’ll do. We can make inferences on what may happen due to past experience, as always with fantasy, but we have to wait and see. Who says he wont feel more pressure and not perform. Who says he wont climb the st louis arch and try to hang glide from it and strain something. We never know, i wouldnt count on him doing much more than what he has done so far this season, that seems like the best set of empirical data with which to make a prediction of what he’ll do the rest of the way. Of course his surroundings change, but who knows which way they’ll sway him. Personally I think he should be better, but of course he has been better for the last 6 weeks anyways.

  23. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Beau: Dude, where’s the post that you made to Grey regarding mclouth and cordero?

  24. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Simply Fred: the first one where he advised?

  25. GTS says:
    (link)

    Wow, there is so much disagreement on Holliday. I do agree with Grey on one thing and that is Holliday’s value jumped big time so I think whenever something like that happens that you can take advantage of it by selling the guy for someone better than you could have gotten before the trade went through. Time will tell though.

  26. Beau says:
    (link)

    @Simply Fred: The question was on the last blog post, do you want me to repost it?

  27. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Beau: I searched all of July’s posts. Didn’t see it. Maybe I missed it. Because if it was prior, then he would have been advising on the Holliday that hadn’t had a single HR since June 5. Cust Kayin’

  28. Beau says:
    (link)

    It was from the post from earlier today.

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Fade: I don’t know if there’s any empirical data saying lineup protection is or is not a myth. I haven’t read anything that says definitively it does help or not so I purposely avoided it in the post. Let’s assume it does help.

    A better park? If Busch is better I’d like to see that backed up by stats from this year. It’s neutral. Neither here nor there. But it has usually played better than the Coliseum. So let’s say Busch is better.

    No DH making NL pitchers better or worse, there’s no correlation. I never mentioned the DH. But let’s assume the NL has weaker pitchers.

    So net-net-net for Holliday.

    But it proves my point that you’re arguing in favor of Holliday. Everyone suddenly feels like Holliday will be wonderful again. Arguing for a guy who has 11 homers and is batting .286 (as of last week he had 8 homers and a .270 average). He’s a 25/100 guy. So 14 homers in the final two months. Ludwick can do that. So you trade Holliday for Ludwick and Bourn and you’ve made your team much better (if you need steals). Trade Holliday for and a top 20 player? I’d do it in a second. As I said above, Holliday gets a slight boost, but I don’t see him suddenly being a top 20 player just because of this. He’s still overrated.

  30. PJtres says:
    (link)

    grey,
    how do you rank these young OF’s in a keeper system? Thanks

    mccutcheon/fowler/dukes/milledge/rasmus

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Robert: I’d want Braun.

    @PJtres: Fowler, Rasmus, McCutchen, Dukes…

  32. Steve says:
    (link)

    Certainly makes me feel a bit happier about starting Joba against the As tonight ;-)

  33. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Beau: OK. Here it is:What do you guys think, i trade holliday and drop reimold in a 10 team keeper for cordero and mclouth? Im 2nd to last in saves but first by a large margin in HR/RBI. Mclouth and holliday would be kept virtually in the same round, not sure that id keep either though. Im thinking of just punting saves though, the standings go 39, 42 (me), 49, 49, 50, 61…so i dont think the downgrade from holliday to mclouth is worth it, especially with sherill and gonzalez as my only other closers…thoughts?

    @Grey: I only have 1 spot to go down though, and dont really see a good chance of moving up enough to trade holliday for mclouth essentially.

    @Beau: I’d take Holliday there, just not sure why you can’t get to the 49/50 save guys.

    Looks like Grey recommends Holliday. What am I missing? Your post at the top:@Grey: After telling me to get cordero and mclouth for him?

  34. Colin says:
    (link)

    I’m grabbing Holliday with my number 1 waiver in our NL only. I just have a feeling hitting behind the best hitter in baseball, new surroundings and pennant race will kick him in the ass and he’ll start producing. Just a hunch.

  35. Lava says:
    (link)

    Man, it sucks to be an A’s fan. Their future is brighter than Baron so pessimistically described, but it’s pretty hard to pay attention to them this year.

    But next year! Next year! …

  36. Beau says:
    (link)

    @Simply Fred: I was responding to the post by grey saying to aim for a 2nd rd player for those shopping holliday and trying to sell high, i was commenting that he had just told me to take mclouth and cordero for him, certainly not a 2nd rd player. But his point that they combined value makes it worth it seems to hold. Im taking off for the weekend now, everyone have a good one!

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Colin: That’s a no brainer. You have to grab him with a waiver claim.

  38. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Beau: Well, he didn’t tell you to take mclouth and cordero. He said: “i’d take Holliday there.” Cut and run and runnnnnn. Have a nice weekend.

  39. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I apologize. I don’t need to be picking battles for you.

  40. shydog says:
    (link)

    my NL only team is named Unexamined Life after a fictitious DFW watering hole. Sometimes, i think i like the sidenotes the most.

  41. Robert says:
    (link)

    Grey- Do you think Hanson will fall into the Romero/Porcello category of being skipped/shut down in Aug.?

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Robert: He will in September is my guess.

  43. Dingo says:
    (link)

    @Grey: So Holliday for Crawford would be a yes?

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Dingo: Yup, if you need what Crawford gives you.

  45. Dingo says:
    (link)

    @Grey: To put it mildly, what he’s got I’ve got to get it put it in … my roster.

  46. Robert says:
    (link)

    Another one: If V-Mart is traded, do you see a negative affect on Choo?

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Dingo: Ha!

    @Robert: Might lose some slight value — nothing major — but I don’t think V-Mart’s going anywhere.

  48. mbelsky says:
    (link)

    Would you swing Holliday & CQ for Granderson & Hamilton?

  49. Fade says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Holliday is on pace for a season similar to Abreu’s last year. Abreu was the 24th best fantasy hitter that season. Holliday, at least in Yahoo!, was being drafted in the late 3rd, early 4th, round this season. Now you see him as a sell high? He’s on pace to out produce his ADP (and that’s given his horrendous first month of this year).

    Now Grey, it’s only been a couple hours since he’s even been traded, yet you’re making some assumption that everyone now thinks he’s a 1st round pick. I’m not sure who realistically thinks that at all, and I’m not sure how you made such an inference.

    About lineup protection, there is data that supports but also refutes its existence. Regardless, you can’t argue against two things – Holliday will have more chances to drive in runs (1-3 St. Louis hitters’ cumulative OBP is much higher) and more chances to be driven in (St. Louis hitters’ cumulative BA is much higher).

    About Busch, just take a look at ESPN’s park factors for the last 4 years since Busch opened. Every season (but this one), Busch has been classified as a better hitter’s park than Oakland – although both are slightly pitcher’s parks overall.

    And to say that DH has no correlation between pitcher performance is crazy. Of the top 15 run scoring teams, only 4 are from the NL, and 11 from the AL. I’m sure you’ll argue that just means “NL pitching just must be better!” but I think we all know there are too many statistics pointing towards a the NL being the weaker offensive league (as you can go back year after year to see that the AL scores more runs – or I guess the NL pitching could have been that good for that long, lol).

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @mbelsky: Seems fair, but I wouldn’t. Too much risk on the other side. I could see it working out for you though.

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Fade: General vibe of seems to indicate people are excited about Holliday again. As someone who reads all the comments we get, I’m telling you people weren’t excited about him before. No one was trading for him.

    Busch is a neutral park that was playing in favor of pitchers this year, the opposite was true for Oakland this year. This year only.

    There’s no correlation to how well a pitcher pitches to the DH. They don’t throw better. The results are better. If you put Lincecum in the AL, his numbers might come down a slight bit, but he still pitches as well.

    NL scoring less runs can also be used against Holliday. Lineups don’t turn over as much. In the NL rallies die.

  52. Steve says:
    (link)

    My Aramis and Utley for his Quentin and Wright? I already have Ibanez in my LF spot.
    I’m not feeling it.

  53. Dingo says:
    (link)

    @Fade: No need to go on the attack — every league is different, so if perceptions in your league don’t match what Grey is predicting, then you can safely ignore his “sell” recommendation. Come to think of it, you can ignore his recommendations as much as you want. Nobody here will hold it against you.

  54. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Dingo: It’s cool. Debate is fine, I don’t feel attacked.

  55. Chilli says:
    (link)

    2 questions
    Drop Beltran and pick up Holliday ?
    Where will Holliday hit in the lineup ?

  56. Fade says:
    (link)

    @Dingo: I wasn’t attacking Grey at all. If you’re going to own a popular fantasy baseball website, you have to expect people to disagree and challenge their assessments. I’m sure Grey didn’t see my comments as hostile, but just as dissent.

    Grey came to a hypothesis based on evidence that I felt supported the opposite conclusion. I was only presenting the facts I see them.

  57. Pete says:
    (link)

    Grey need trade advice. My staff is Gallardo, Wainwright, Kazmir, Weaver, Smolz. Pretty weak. Would you do Utley for A. Hill and Halladay?

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Chilli: Holliday will probably bat 4th. Drop Beltran for him, sure. Gotta think you have someone better to drop though.

    @Fade: Debate is great. No worries there at all.

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Pete: I’d take Hill and Halladay there.

  60. Panti Jose says:
    (link)

    Assuming no particular need in a 15 team, 5 x 5 mixed, as a CI replacement for Lowell:

    Pearce or Coghlan (or neither)

    Thanks in advance Grey or anyone else. Picked up Holliday today for Bourn. Despite his being a sell, me likee.

  61. DrEasy says:
    (link)

    Guys, “sell” doesn’t mean “no value”! In this case, I think we can all agree that Holliday’s value increases as a result of the trade. He becomes a “sell” only if the generally perceived increase in value is higher than what the actual increase wlll be (which we don’t know and are debating here). I would definitely drop Bourn to pick up Holliday. For the rest of the year, I think Holliday’s numbers will be comparable to Granderson’s, with an edge to Holliday w.r.t AVG.

  62. Panti Jose says:
    (link)

    (Sorry if this is a repeated message–the last one isn’t showing up)

    Assuming power and speed needs are equal, which replacement for Lowell in 15 team, 5 x 5:

    Coghlan or Pearce (or neither)

    Thanks in advance Grey or anyone else.

  63. Panti Jose says:
    (link)

    Thanks Grey!

  64. Dingo says:
    (link)

    @Fade: It’s all good. I actually agree with your perspective on this question anyway. But that might be the Holliday Stockholm Syndrome talking.

  65. peter says:
    (link)

    Speaking of Holliday, Yahoo says he’s not starting tonight (I wish I had a link to Rudy’s post about Y!’s “^” from the other year). But, at the same time, he’s listed in Y!’s lineup for tonight’s Cards game. Think he’ll still get credit for tonight’s stats? Yahoo’s system still lists him as playing for Oakland.

  66. SamYo says:
    (link)

    Grey, James Shields and Derek Lowe were dropped in my league, who should I drop ?
    My SP are – Nolasco, Jobacum, Price, Harang, Gallardo.

    Can you rank these – Fowler, Schumaker, Posednik ? (i need avg and steals)

    Last question – Do you think Justin Verlander will win the Cy Young ?

  67. Pops says:
    (link)

    Lineups posted in Philadelphia. Holliday batting fourth. Behind King Albert, in front of Ludwick.

  68. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @peter: He’ll get credit if he plays. Whether he’s playing, I’m not sure. Assuming if he’s there, he’ll be in the lineup.

    @SamYo: Verlander may win it. Has a good shot. Fowler, Pods… I’d drop Scherzer for Shields. And drop Harang for Lowe, though I have to think you have someone else to drop for them.

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Pops: Thanks for the heads up!

  70. john says:
    (link)

    All this talk about Holliday’s value..what about Ludwick’s, does this affect him at all? (I mean I don’t start him now as it is, but maybe it’ll help his trade value for me)

  71. BigFan says:
    (link)

    Behind in stolen bases. Crazy to sit Granderson for a couple weeks and pick up Fowler? Can’t pry Crawford or anyone else away. I have Jacoby but he’s given me nothing but a headache for the last 2 wks. When’s he going to pick it up?

  72. GTS says:
    (link)

    @BigFan: or Pods or Bourn

  73. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @john: Ludwick gets a slight boost.

    @BigFan: It’s a bit of a push for steals between those too. Maybe Fowler gets a few more.

  74. john says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I figured it would be modest…hopefully its more of a psychological boost to my fellow leaguemates so they’ll wanna trade for him

  75. Pops says:
    (link)

    Fun factoid: JA Happ has no lost a start since his Major League debut two years ago.

  76. Colin says:
    (link)

    @Grey: It’s him or Halladay, but I figure I’ll go after the player that can contribute every day rather than every 5 days.

  77. inertiatic says:
    (link)

    Great buy/sell as always… Except for one major poo-poo:

    SELL GARRET JONES? Blasphemy indeed! The Robot cannot be sold for pittance! It is programmed for only one thing, to hit home runs. RBI be damned. The Robot’s sat-com intercepted this post from the WWW and it’s space age plutonium fuel cells are boiling over with rage! It’s program has now been amended from super human homer power to super duper robot homer pace. Now it will obliterate the single season home run record, the Pirates will win the pennant, dogs and cats will live together and pandemonium will ensue! You will rue the day you blasphemed The Robot, Grey! Well, go on. Start rue-ing!

  78. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Colin: Go with Holliday. Bird in the hand and all that jazz.

    @inertiatic: Ha, one of the best comments in a while.

  79. big o says:
    (link)

    @Grey:
    we’re on the same page vis-a-vis washburn .
    up until last night , g. jones was 0 – 14 with runners on base !

    @ all
    what’s the eligibility requirement for yahoo ?
    pablo catching for me this year , but will he qualify @ C , next year (keeper league) ??
    also , can anyone direct me how to find out how many games he has played this year , and at which positions ???

    thanking you all , in advance , but ,
    type slowly …. cuz i’m computer stupid .

  80. Also going to a playoff contender could bring a little life back in him like colorados run a few yrs back….

    either way i traded the ahole for carlos lee one month into the season

  81. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @big o: Has 3 games so far.

  82. Adam says:
    (link)

    Got offered Derrek Lee for my Paul Konerko…similar hitters I know, but who do you like for the rest of the season? Are either known for being great/poor second half hitters?

  83. big o says:
    (link)

    @Grey:
    dewayne wise just made a better catch of granderson’s 1st inning drive … 2nd game .
    interesting listen on mlb pkg …. so far , NO announcers …ha .

    also , where did you find that info (3 games @ C) about pablo ?

  84. Pops says:
    (link)

    Holliday infield single and a stolen base.

  85. big o says:
    (link)

    check that …. announcers just checked in for bekham’s ab … top of the 2nd ..
    not sure it’s better .

  86. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Adam: Coin flip, I’d hold tight.

    @big o: On ESPN’s player card for Pablo, bottom 3rd of the card.

    @Pops: And run scored.

  87. Adam says:
    (link)

    @Adam: Also, if I can get him to include a throw-in, would you prefer Randy Wells or Liriano?

  88. big o says:
    (link)

    @Grey:
    thanks for the link … i see it now .
    couldn’t find that info on cbs nor yahoo .

    also … if wise’s catch doesn’t make baseball tonight’s top play , then i’m a monkey’s uncle .

    @ all
    still looking to hear about yahoo’s player-position eligibility ,
    if one of you could clue me in ,
    i’d appreciate it .

  89. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Adam: Liriano

    @big o: 5 starts, 10 total appearances.

  90. big o says:
    (link)

    @Grey:
    again , you da man .

  91. big o says:
    (link)

    A ‘s playing “indian rubber rules” …. i love it !!!
    see j. damon’s 3rd inning AB .

    growing up in small town new hampshire , pick-up games were usually played with only 3 or 4 players/side .
    rather than tag a guy out , indian rubber rules allowed you to throw the ball at the runner .
    no one ever played 1st base or catcher .

  92. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @big o: Ha! I saw that play and thought a similar thing (dodge ball).

  93. BigFatHippo says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Interesting story about Indy. I actually had fun in Indy one night!

    We were at an Illini game the year they went to the final 4, 84 I think it was. After the game we were partaking in a shady watering hole name of the Slippery Noodle. Needless to say, we slipped out of the place quite inebriated.

    Upon leaving we discovered a big metal sign on the wall of the building near a parking lot that said in huge red letters…………

    NO SLIPPERY NOODLE PARKING

    15 minutes and seven bloody digits later (yes, it was bolted to the brick) it was all mine. Spent a couple years in my dorm room until it got passed on to another idiot college kid, and then another, and then another until I have no idea where it is. Good times, good times.

    If anybody knows where my NO SLIPPERY NOODLE PARKING sign is, Hippo wants it back!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  94. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Pops: Did you see the forums post this week: Happ-less?

  95. Corey says:
    (link)

    Piniero doing good work against the Phillies. When will someone take him seriously so I can trade him?

  96. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Corey: # 54 Simply Fred Says:
    July 23rd, 2009 at 9:22 am
    @Noodles: If you need K’s, Liriano. If you need ERA and WHIP, Pineiro.

    Posted this yesterday. Just feelin’ my oats.

  97. Corey says:
    (link)

    @ Simply Fred: Am I missing something?

  98. Prince says:
    (link)

    @inertiatic: The Robot with another bomb…

  99. Greg says:
    (link)

    BUY: Robot Jones.

  100. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Corey: Oh, I was just sayin’ that I was taking your man Pineiro seriously and giving him respect. Am not in a position to trade for him.

  101. bobbo says:
    (link)

    Since Grey’s disrespect of G. Jones: 1 game, 1 HR (and wasnt even a solo!)

  102. Corey says:
    (link)

    Oh. Gotcha. I thought you meant that as a reply to something I said, but I understand what you’re saying. I guess the only thing from people loving this guy is the ks, or lack thereof.

  103. Chief says:
    (link)

    I love Garrett Jones AND Grey, though only one of them homered already tonight.

  104. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Corey: Yes, generally the K’s get the respect. However, that era and whip are worthy. Someone in your league must be trailing in those categories and might bite after a performance like today’s.

  105. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Corey: ADD: The era and whip have been solid for the season.

  106. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @BigFatHippo: Hey, I have that same sign!

    @Greg: Ha, I like that. Robot Jones. Nice.

    @bobbo: Their shame is your reward.

    @Chief: Ha!

  107. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: He’s come back with His Wright and Hamilton for A-Ram and Utley. I could slot Hamilton in at CF (and drop Da Big Fra-Gu. I’ve still got Beltran to come back at CF) and move Felipe from the bench to 2B.

    I’m tempted, but that’s an awfully big drop-off from Utley.

    What say you? The guy I’d be trading with is in 2nd, behind me BTW.

  108. Robert says:
    (link)

    Start Price@Tor and Hanson@Mil?

  109. Corey says:
    (link)

    @ Simply Fred: I always end up asking for more than they want to give. I want to trade him, but I don’t want to settle for less than I think I deserve.

  110. Robert says:
    (link)

    I really can’t stand Liriano. Will he ever get it together?

  111. Robert says:
    (link)

    Grey- My Hanson for his Bay was accepted. This was not a mistake, right?

  112. big o says:
    (link)

    dodgers playing like clowns .
    trying to make manny feel right at home ??

  113. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Robert: I give it a tossup. Price a plus in K’s; Hanson the edge in whip. Let’s see what Grey says.

  114. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Corey: Does Grey know your team? Ask him what you are looking for.

  115. Prince says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I know you’ve recommended Huff in the 2nd half, but he’s looking dead, and I’m a bit concerned. Are either Cantu or Encarnacion any improvement?

  116. Prince says:
    (link)

    Actually add Stewart to the mix up there…

  117. Eric C. says:
    (link)

    @Grey Trade Ellsbury or Victorino for Juan Rivera/Weaver? Team is in need of more HR/RBIs.

  118. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: I wouldn’t do it.

    @Robert: I’d go with them both.

    @Robert: No, not a mistake at all.

    @Prince: How deep is this? 10 team? If so, go with the hottest hand, Stewart.

    @Eric C.: You can do a lot better than Rivera there.

  119. Prince says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Yeah, sorry, 10 team. Always forget to give you that info. With such a shallow league is this kind of a general rule (go with hottest hand)?

  120. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Prince: More often than not, I figured it was ten team since those guys were on waivers. They’re not in most leagues.

  121. Robert says:
    (link)

    OK, Grey. Thanks. I am slightly behind in era and whip. Other team has Jackson and Harden going, so I guess I’ve got nothing to lose with Hanson and Price.

  122. Robert says:
    (link)

    Grey- With Bay, my OF will be Cruz, Bourn, Rios, Choo, and Bay. Util. spots are Aram and Jones. If I were to move Rios or Choo, who would you trade and what type of pitcher? Thanks.

  123. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Robert: Price’s Away stats for the season: 7.01 ERA; 1.90 WHIP.

  124. Harang only start @ home? nasty splits

  125. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Robert: Rios should get a solid #2, think Wainwright-type.

  126. Nick says:
    (link)

    Garrett Jones with another homer tonight, this time a two-run shot. This kid is out of control, even if he is set to regress (his LD% is at 10%). If he manages to keep it up (like his 44 FB% seems to suggest power-wise), he’ll be a low AVG/big power Russell Branyan type.

  127. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Grey: What determines eligibility for someone like Pablo Sandoval for next year? Say he plays almost exclusively the rest of the year at 3B, will he get C eligibility next year? What are the rules regarding keepers, when a player progresses from C to 3B in future years?

  128. Robert says:
    (link)

    Fred- you are making me nervous. My era 3.75 to his 3.09, my whip 1.23 to his 1.17. And if I don’t use Price he will throw another gem like the last time against the Jays.

    Grey- for Rios…Oswalt, Wandy, Shields. Someone like that?

  129. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Robert: His away games were inflated by @Tex and @Col. @NYA he only gave up 1 earned. And, you have the recent @home against TOR. So, it will probably be OK. I had not drilled down to who the individual away matchups had been.

  130. Nick says:
    (link)

    So the time is now…do I go for Garrett Jones a very risky but potential huge payoff for Reyes or A Gonzo (Reyes cause the owner is big met fan) and Adrian, whats up the last few weeks? I could try Pence too…

  131. Robert says:
    (link)

    Thanks Fred. I feel better. Know anything about hold? Can’t believe I have to find a good holds guy. I have Hughes. Debating between Darren Oliver and Todd Coffey.

  132. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Robert: Sorry, out of my realm. Will be pulling for Price. Don’t own him but was hot on him at start of season. BTW: I would like periodic reports of where you stand. I know you were at/near the bottom at one time and have moved up some. I am impressed that you didn’t throw in the towel and see you working it with Grey.

  133. Robert says:
    (link)

    Fred- Don’t worry, I will keep coming back to Grey for lots of questions. 2nd year doing fantasy baseball. Still figuring it out. I thought I knew alot about baseball, very frustrating. Last year I was 6th in an 8 team league in June and by the end of Aug. had moved into 3rd. Got lucky I guess. Bad pitching and underachieving hitters this year. A strong finish this weekend and a good one next week and I could move into 7th, one spot from a ticket to the dance. Thanks for your help.

  134. Stephen says:
    (link)

    Do you think Price, Kershaw or Hanson get shut down in September?

  135. Quintero says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I can trade Holliday for Miguel Cabrera or Tim Lincecum in a Dynasty. Is Miggy a safe bet? I know you ranked him 4th, but I will be trading with my nemesis…playing super safe here..

    Oh, and thanks, Grey, I just turned Garrett Jones and Beckham into Rollins yesterday. Ha.

  136. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Meant to ask this the other day, but what’s your current thinking on Correia? He gets the Reds away and the Brew Crew at home in his next two starts.

    Give him one more and see how he does?

  137. Aan says:
    (link)

    Anticipating a Halladay trade, what will his value be if he lands with Philadelphia – I’m in a league that counts IP, is Braun for Halladay a fair enough trade if I have an excess of OF and need pitching help down the stretch?

  138. BSA says:
    (link)

    Grey and other familiar with Marlins –

    Why doesn’t Calero get a sniff as closer? His numbers have been pretty solid – shut the door solid.

  139. steamer says:
    (link)

    So glad I sat Pineiro last night…and I’m going up against the guy who had Halladay, Verlander, Johnson, Hanson pitch this week. I’m trailing 3.00 to 2.22 in ERA, barely in WHIPm & 4-2 in Ws. Do I start Bedard, Cueto, or Floyd today?

    I’ve got a DL spot to stash a player, are any of these players stashable: Delgado, Marcum, Volquez, Dice-K, Meche?

  140. knighttown says:
    (link)

    Wondering who to start in single matchups this week. Slightly over in innings pitched so good matchups are key. My picks so far in brackets:

    Kuroda vs. Florida (yes)
    Hanson @. Brewers (yes)
    E-Jax vs. Pale Hose (yes)
    Harden vs. Cin (yes, reluctantly)
    Scherzer vs. Pit (yes)
    Oswalt @. Cubs (yes)
    Weaver vs. Indians (no)

    Anything you’d do differently?

  141. big o says:
    (link)

    @knighttown:
    if winds are greater than 8 mph (sw to w) , you might want to reconsider oswalt’s start at wrigley .
    or hope like hell that he misses a lot of bats .

  142. big o says:
    (link)

    @Grey:
    carlos pena :
    2007 … 46 HRs … 121 RBI … .282 BA
    2008 … 31 … 102 … .247

    saw a pre-season interview where carlos guaranteed 40 HRs this year , so i figured him for a .272 BA

    presently , he is 7 … 15 … .198 vs lefties , so , i am platooning him to take advantage of a healthy 17 …. 45 … .231 line vs righties .

    how screwed am i , and what the hell happened ??
    not that it can get much worse , but can i expect a late season up-tick , or just more of the same ??

  143. Jacob says:
    (link)

    Bourn is on the Free Agency list. should I drop McCutchen The Dread Pirate to get him?

  144. David says:
    (link)

    Given Brian Roberts’ propensity for yawnstipating second halves, who should I look to target for him in a trade? Am I crazy for thinking Prado?

  145. struggler says:
    (link)

    Turned Garrett Jones/Tommy Hanson into Mark Reynolds!

  146. MDS says:
    (link)

    how long did you have to search to find a statistic to back up your horrible claims? OBP? what does that matter? the cardinals score more runs than the A’s. Pujols and Ludwick, believe it or not, are better protection than jack cust and nomar garciaparra. get a clue. do you think you can sell holliday for rd 2 prices? its time for you to sell your buy/sell articles and stop assuming we play vs our little sister

  147. MDS says:
    (link)

    sell washburn for what? lemme guess. adrian gonzalez.

    you are terrrrrrrrrrrrible

  148. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @knighttown: here’s a start (need to step away). I weigh Season most; 08/07 least.

    K/9 ERA WHIP
    weaver Hcle season home 8.1 2.51 0.92
    Last 2 home 11.7 5.08 1.04
    09 headsup na
    08/07 headsup H 9.0 5.79 1.71

    oswalt Achn season away 6.5 3.38 1.03
    Last 2 away 4.7 0.92 0.46
    09 headsup
    08/07 headsup A 4.0 5.82 1.34

    kuroda Hfla season home 6.1 4.48 1.25
    Last 2 home 6.4 5.81 1.57
    09 headsup na
    08/07 headsup H 7.3 4.35 1.29

    hanson Amil season away 5.4 2.72 1.42
    Last 2 away 4.5 3.74 0.97
    09 headsup 7.5 9.00 1.17
    08/07 headsup A na

  149. knighttown says:
    (link)

    @Simply Fred:

    So if I;m reading that right, Weavers been as shitty as I recall him being lately, Oswalt has been dominant, Kuroda’s just not that good (but it’s only Florida) and Hanson’s doing his damage at home mostly and got ripped apart by the Brewers last time.

  150. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Robert: Oswalt, Wandy, Shields — yup.

    @Nick: Are you saying to trade Jose Reyes for Garrett Jones? No, I wouldn’t do that.

    @Stephen: I think Hanson might get skipped. Lots to do with where the Braves are in the race.

    @Quintero: Nice on Rollins. I’d want Miggy.

    @Steve: Don’t know which options you have, but I’m waiting on Brewers at home.

    @Aan: That’s a fair trade.

    @steamer: I’d start Bedard and stash Volquez.

    @knighttown: Looks right.

    @big o: I think he still has one more big hot streak in his bat.

    @Jacob: Get Bourn there.

    @David: I wouldn’t trade him for Prado.

    @struggler: Nice!

  151. Corey says:
    (link)

    I finally got a buyer for Piniero. I moved him in a big deal for Howard and Harang.

  152. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @knighttown: Wow: good read. Here’s the rest:
    jackson Hchaseason home 6.9 2.73 1.05
    Last 2 home 6.0 1.86 0.98
    09 headsup 5.4 3.60 1.8
    08/07 headsup H na

    harden Hcinseason home 10.2 7.68 1.75
    Last 2 home 8.5 2.29 1.42
    09 headsup 12.0 3.00 0.83
    08/07 headsup H 12.9 0.00 0.29

    scherzer Hpitseason home 9.0 5.03 1.38
    Last 2 home 9.1 4.02 1.22
    09 headsup na
    08/07 headsup H na

    I project the following overall rankings in a 12X12 roto (its 55/45 their actual performance will fall +/- 2 ranks):

    oswalt Achn 5
    weaver Hcle 5
    scherzer Hpit 6
    jackson Hcha 6
    harden Hcin 6
    hanson Amil 8
    kuroda Hfla 9

    So, regarding your initial analysis, I would trade out Kuroada for Weaver.

    This analysis still won’t be as good as Grey’s: Get him to answer your original.

  153. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Simply Fred: edit: replace “roto” with “RCL”

  154. Robert says:
    (link)

    Grey- I have pitchers for Ks and I am thinking I should target a low era/whip guy. Maybe a Wandy, Oswalt, Jurrjens, Lannan? The first two I would have to trade for and Lannan would take be pick up #41/50. Are you eh on Lannan? I know the other guys are better, but trades are not easy in my league.

  155. Robert says:
    (link)

    sorry, the first three need to trade for.

  156. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Corey: Nice!

    @knighttown: Indians aren’t an easy matchup (their hitting’s much better than their pitching, not that it could be worse) so Weaver might be okay with a 5 to 4 win, but he’s been getting hit around lately. So I’d bench him until he puts up a decent start or the matchup is just too good to ignore.

  157. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Robert: Lannan’s a good start vs. the Padres.

  158. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Corey: Coooool!

  159. Robert says:
    (link)

    Well, Fred, there goes Price. Unbelievable!!!

  160. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @knighttown: See! Believe in The Man.

  161. G-RAM says:
    (link)

    Time to cut Price loose? I’m watching this game in action and he looks just awful, almost belabored. Little movement on his pitches, trouble locating. He almost looks like he’s throwing batting practice. It’s hard to believe this is the same guy that was so dominant in the playoffs last year.

  162. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @G-RAM: I wouldn’t cut him in anything but a 10 team league or shallower.

  163. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @Robert: He was a little risky. Maybe Hanson can cut some of the pain. You’ve got stones (even if Price doesn’t have ‘em today).

  164. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @G-RAM: Price’s K/9/ERA/WHIP
    Away: 9.0/7.01/1.90
    Home: 6.6/2.42/0.88

    Still looks like a spot starter at home until he proves he can’t do it there?

  165. G-RAM says:
    (link)

    @Simply Fred: Good point. It doesn’t help that my league counts BB against a pitcher, either though. That’s what has killed me with Kershaw this season! Strange that Price’s K/9 rate is so high on the road, where he’s had all kind of control issues.

  166. Rnunnerley says:
    (link)

    First Grey let me thank you for your cunning analysis and foresight, that being said I must again ask you for advice…

    I just traded Piniero for McLouth, didnt really need him but I couldnt not do it based on the sheer value. So I will now have a lineup that looks like this:

    12 team 5×5

    C Russel Martin
    1B Ryan Howard
    2B Aaron Hill
    3B Miguel Cabrera
    SS Rafael Furcal
    OF Ben Zobrist
    OF Nate McLouth
    OF Grady Sizemore
    UTIL Manny Ramirez
    UTIL Aramis Ramirez
    UTIL Alfonso Soriano
    BN Corey Hart

    My pitching staff is pretty mediocre since I traded most of it away for hitting and I really need to add another starter or closer from the WW.

    Who is the odd man out in my offense to trade or drop?
    Thank a ton

  167. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Rnunnerley: Thanks for your kind words! I like that McLouth trade for you. I think you should try and move Manny for a top starter. Or Soriano or A-Ram. I’d start at Manny and try and get the best starter possible.

  168. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @G-RAM:
    Price Home:
    26.2 IP, 30 K, 16 BB, 2 HR
    Away:
    23.1 IP, 23 K, 17 BB, 6 HR

    Not much difference, except for the HRs.

  169. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
    (link)

    @G-RAM: I see where the conflict is. I had mis-reported the home K/9 in the first post. since I was looking at his away game matchup, I failed to update the home. Another reason to count on Grey. My bad.

  170. Rnunnerley says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Thank you sir, I have sent out three offers of Manny for Johan, Lincecum and Halladay, hopefully one of them bites

  171. Nick0rz says:
    (link)

    Day after you put Figgins on the buy he comes up big. 1 HR, 3SB, 3R, 2RBI. Looks like a real 5 tool threat there!

    But those steals… yum.

  172. BabyBeluga says:
    (link)

    drop Baez for Tillman? or hold on and see.

  173. Someone you might want to have a look at if you need a catcher is Miguel Montero, this kid is really making the most of playing every day. He could always hit with power but never got the PT due to his defense and gamecalling skills being lacking.

  174. Duh, never mind, you already had him listed. At least Im not imagining things heh.

  175. Prince says:
    (link)

    @Grey: This is me quoting you: “Beckham, McGehee, Prado, Everth then Kendrick, in that order.” Still agree with those rankings (from July 6th, I think)? Wondering specifically about Kendrick.

  176. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Prince: Nope, play the hot hand. Go with Kendrick.

  177. Prince says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Thanks. Just realized that it would mean dropping Alexei or S.Drew (I picked up Drew for Everth a week ago), so I imagine it’s a no-go, even though Kendrick is indeed the hot hand.

  178. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Prince: I wouldn’t drop either.

  179. Jpm says:
    (link)

    My starting pitching is pretty weak: harden, hansen, happ, romero, price. Looking to trade for a better one, hopefully jurrjens. I think my most tradeable guys based on my roster are Damon, Abreu, Rivera, N. morgan, o. hud, or prado. Anyone have tips on types of packages or who else might be a good target?

  180. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Jpm: I’d see if I could get Wainwright with Damon or F-Her with two of them.

  181. Grimlock says:
    (link)

    Grey, Holliday was coming around even before the trade. Do you not believe the business about altering his stance with McGwire in the offseason (what a rotten idea…I mean, unless you’ve got the roids to back it up) and it throwing his whole game off early on? I absolutely do believe that, just as I believe in lineup protection. It’s not entirely clear if lineup protection affects independent stats (OPS), but it is 100% clear that it affects runs and RBIs, and Holliday gets a very obvious boost in both categories. The mental boost that he’s now got from returning to his old stance and going to a much stronger lineup is harder to quantify, but it’s there, all the same.

    As far as the pitcher killing rallies is concerned, that is going to most affect batters hitting somewhere near the pitcher’s slot in the batting order. For a cleanup hitter, as Holliday is now, the pitcher’s performance as a hitter has only a miniscule affect on how likely he is to come up with runners on base (it only happens when the #9 hitter leads off, gets on base, and then the team records two outs and another man on base without driving the pitcher in over the next three batters), and a near zero affect on how likely he is to score, himself (as in: mathematically, a #9 hitter can drive in a #4 hitter only with 2 outs and the bases loaded).

    As far as David Foster Wallace barreling into the catcher is concerned, knowing what we know about the man, Ray Fosse should not have been surprised.

  182. jamiesonmj says:
    (link)

    Washburn, Slowey (DL), or Liriano ROS?

  183. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Grimlock: I don’t give much credence to anecdotal evidence. I try to just look at the stats. So I heard the thing about his stance, I don’t buy that it had anything to do with his recent hitting. He was a good hitter last year (just not much power) and I don’t think he suddenly became a bad hitter this year. He slumped and now he’s hitting. Usual shizz hitters go through. Psychologically, maybe it was the batting stance thing, maybe he lost his pet turtle, either way he’s out of it. ZIPS, a very reliable projection service gives him 20 HRs on the season. I gave him 22 in February. I’ll concede 25 HRs at this point. Still not really as wonderful as people make him out to be. Runs and RBIs should go up a tick, but not enough for the current excitement.

  184. jamiesonmj says:
    (link)

    @jamiesonmj: scratch Slowey – out for season

  185. aconstipatedmonkey says:
    (link)

    In an 12 team NL only league, which side do you like, Josh Johnson and Milledge for Ibanez? I’ve got 11/8/9.5/12/9.5 in hitting and 4/3/8/12/12 in pitching for a 4 point lead. I’m only 3.0 IP ahead of pace, and my other starters are De La Rosa, Scherzer, and Sanchez for spot starts. Should I ask for a 4th or 5th starter for extra spot starts? My ERA and WHIP leads are 0.20 and 0.05 respectively.

  186. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @aconstipatedmonkey: Forget Milledge and get a 4th or 5th starter throw-in. Someone like Gaudin or Correia.

  187. Grimlock says:
    (link)

    Grey: as an economist of sorts, I have always perceived a strange correlation between economics and baseball analysis. Both disciplines are extremely math-intensive (and even use math along the same basic lines) and purport to yield accurate predictive models, and yet both fields are hugely ego-dependent – meaning they’re attempting to apply a mathematical model to human behavior. Not surprisingly, both models break down spectacularly at many points and are debatably worse than the “gut instinct” of a well-informed expert. The human element simply cannot be factored into the equation in a rational way, and so, as rationalists, we ignore it, entirely.

    But I can tell you (and you surely know, having played, yourself) that baseball is a hugely mental game – far moreso than any other professional sport other than perhaps golf precisely because it is such an individual sport (your teammates cannot pull you out of a slump) and because the margin of error – the difference between success and failure – is so very small. Ignoring the irrational is the rational thing to do, but the question becomes: is baseball a rational game?

    It may well be that we’ve conflated two wholly different qualities – that baseball, by virtue of the fact that it is a sport based so very much on individual skill, is emminently *quantifiable*, but at the same time hugely *irrational* for exactly the same reason. Put that in your pipe and smoke it. At any rate, I think Holliday is a top-15 hitter for the rest of the year, and anything less than 1st round value (which nobody’s going to get) is underselling him at this point. I’ll take my crow with hot sauce at the end of the season if I’m wrong.

    BTW, have you come off the ledge about Kendry Morales yet? Maybe he reads your blog, because he’s been on a tear ever since you called for a punt. I’m glad I trusted April Grey over July Grey and held on for one more day…I heeeeeeld on for one more day, and things went my way. I held on for one more day.

  188. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Grimlock: A) Awesome comment B) I love hot sauce C) April Grey is a good friend and he sends his regards.

  189. Chupacabra says:
    (link)

    Jeez, I could have just done a little search on the net, and I would have seen the Sizemore elbow…instead I bother you. I suppose it is too late to get someone to trade anyone decent for him at this point.

  190. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Chupacabra: You can try to trade him, not sure how much you can get.

  191. Quintero says:
    (link)

    I know this is dumb question..but Jorge de la Rosa or Cliff Lee? Thx.

Comments are closed.