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If you’ve ever watched a game (if you haven’t, I suggest it sometime) and thought, “Everything this doode hits is dropping in.  And why am I spelling dude wrong when I’m saying it aloud?” then you know where I’m going in this post.  Some guys are just born lucky, other guys sit under bird cages hoping they’re crapped on.  To refresh (that’s your cue to skip ahead, if you know this shizz):  BABIP is a quick way to know how much luck a hitter is having.  There’s more to it, but for the purposes of this, a high BABIP for a hitter and it means the hitter could hit a bloop single just over the pitcher’s head with the infield drawn in.  Below .200 and the hitter could hit a line drive into the Grand Canyon and it would get caught by Alice on the back of a mule.  Then there’s HR/FB%, which is a quick way to know if a hitter is hitting more home runs than what makes sense for that player’s amount of fly balls.  Then there’s LD%, which is the percentage of hits that are line drives.  Line drives are usually a sign of solid contact aka a player is hitting the ball hard.  Finally, K% or the percentage a hitter Ks.  Anyway, here’s some hitters that have been lucky or unlucky so far for fantasy baseball:

Jose Bautista – HR/FB% is way above where his career marks are.  Also, has 6 homers that are “Just Enoughs,” which is 2nd in the AL.  (BTW, that site I just linked to is a good place to lose 2 hours.)  Doesn’t take a genius to see Bautista’s start to the season is unheard of for him, but how long will it last?  Will it be a career year or a career 1st half?  I’d bet on the latter.

Colby Rasmus – I’m actually a fan of Rasmus, but, and there’s always a but unless you’re an alien, Ramus’s HR/FB% is way above where he was last year, he has the 4th worst K% in the major leagues and his BABIP is about 75 points above his career mark.  He can get to 20/20, but I don’t think he’s going to fly past those numbers.

Justin Morneau – Probably goes without saying, but his .350 average is an aberration wrapped in total B.S.

Prince Fielder – Current HR/FB% is pretty far off his career rate, where all his other numbers look pretty normal, except his infield fly ball percentage is high.  In fact, the one thing in common with all his off years is how his infield pop up numbers go up.  He’s still good for 35 homers, but I think it’s safe to kiss away 45+ homers at this point.

Jay Bruce – Currently leads the league in “No Doubt” home runs.  Unfortunately, none of my leagues have Homer Distance as a category.  His HR/FB is below where it should be, so hopefully more balls fly out of the yard in the 2nd half.

Evan Longoria – He’s made progress with his K%, hasn’t lost much on his BB% and he’s getting good wood on the ball.  Still, his HR/FB is down.  Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get crazy/hot at some point.

Jayson Werth – His FB% is up, but his HR/FB% is down.  In Citizens Flank, I’d expect him to start chucking more balls at drunk bleacher babies.

150 Responses

  1. Mets fan says:
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    Grey is Alvarez getting called up today?

  2. peter says:
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    Longoria crazy/hot? Would that make him an “avoid” unless you’re in college and wearing beer goggles?

  3. Brian says:
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    How would you rank Bruce and Rasmus ( and Krispie and Abreu) for the rest of the year?

  4. Nuke LaDouche says:
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    Start Cahill in Chicago tonight?

  5. Nuke LaDouche says:
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    Or Pavano against the Rockies?

  6. Wilsonian says:
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    What’s your take on an Ubaldo/Rasmus for F-Her/Werth or Wainwright/Werth deal in an 8 Team H2H Keeper?

    Props to @peter: in the crazy/hot department…

  7. Frank Rizzo says:
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    So how about Soriano? What do his numbers look like? He’s been a turd lately, similar to Werth……I’m wondering if he’s going to heat up again.

  8. Mr2Bits says:
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    Grey
    In regards to Jose Bautista, does it matter that he is tied for the lead with the “No Doubt” homers? Dude has not been given a shot at a full year since 2004 and was only 23. Seems though the year of his 30th birthday he found his power…. definitely not complaining for a FA 3rd baseman

  9. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Mr2Bits: Pretty much the only thing that matters is what gets you the championship. If you want to hold onto Bautista go ahead. Stats show that it may be a mistake but results aren’t always what stats tell us they will be.

    Personally, I wouldn’t touch Bautista. The guy in my league has been trying to sell off Bautista for about a month but no one is taking his 2 for 1 offers. It’s tough to believe it will last.

  10. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian: Bruce, Krispie, Rasmus…

    @Nuke LaDouche: Cahill… Not crazy about either.

    @Wilsonian: I’d take F-Her and Werth. Or Wainwright and Werth.

    @Frank Rizzo: He’s injury-prone and always hits well in May, which has passed.

    @Tom Emanski: Thanks for the heads up, will have to read them when I get a second.

    @Mr2Bits: When he get a guy off the wire that hits you that many homers, you’re playing with the house’s money. Just saying that it probably won’t continue.

  11. Casey Blake's Beard says:
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    H2H league with AVG and OBP / WINS and QS. In a vacuum, is Ian Stewart for Ian Kennedy good value? Stewart’s been riding my bench and UTIL, and I picked up S-Rod. But since I’m looking for wins, I don’t like my chances what with AZ’s bullpen. Thanks!

  12. Big Nate says:
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    @Grey – Rest of the season at 3B – Smashbuckler, A-Ram, Figgy or Mr. Freese?

  13. Joe B says:
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    Do I start Ian Kennedy vs Boston tonite as they have been raking lately?

  14. JackInTheBox says:
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    Hamilton/Vargas for Ubaldo/Gregg

    Who ya got?

  15. Ryan says:
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    Non keeper rest of year h2h

    Posada, Santana or Posey?

  16. Commish Cauda says:
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    We have two minors spots in my 16-team H2H-POINTS Keeper League. Anyone in the minors as of Sept 1st can be kept the following year for free, (doesn’t matter if he was up and down already during the season).

    It’s the kind of league where you want to stash minors guys who are close to coming up or within a year of coming up, not long term projects.

    That being said, Chris Carter (OAK) and Chris Davis are currently in my minors. Scott Sizemore is a free agent and he’s been raking in AAA. For some reason, I have an unhealthy allegiance to Davis who has burned me more than once.

    Should I bother to continue to own Davis? Should I dump Davis for Sizemore?

  17. CHoP Suey says:
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    @ anyone who cares to chime in…

    im negotiating a deal in my 12 team head to head keeper league where we can keep six guys next year. Im in first right now so im reluctant to make any moves but i just got offered his wright/F-Her/B.Wilson for my Ubaldo and Kinsler plus a first round pick next year.

    I have uggla and mcgehee hanging around at 2nd but im just worried about not getting fair value for ubaldo – thoughts?

  18. Commish Cauda says:
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    @Grey: thanks…saves me from taking apart the shrine I have to him in my basement

  19. Ryan says:
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    In my 20 team dynasty league I was offered carlos gonzalez and cliff lee for morneau ludwick and colby lewis. Is this a trade I should accept?

  20. Martin says:
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    @grey- would you start ian kennedy tonight @ Boston in a 12 team mixed league?

  21. Jif & The Choosy Mothers says:
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    Starting a new league next year, borrowing from an old league that I’m in and love, and we’ll start a preliminary draft offline as soon as July.

    Several guys from here are joining – and the nine commitments I have are some of the best fantasy owners I’ve ever played against. Three spots left – very deep 32-man rosters. If you’re interested in learning more, let me know and I’ll send a detailed league charter for you to review.

    My expectations are that this league will be around a very long time.

    Meanwhile:

    Grey: Medlen, Niese, LeBlanc, E. Jackson for rest of year? Thanks.

  22. Steve says:
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    Guthrie worth a start against the Giants in H2H tomorrow?

  23. JackInTheBox says:
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    @Grey: Do you think it is close/fair?

  24. FD says:
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    5×5 yahoo keeper league, only 3 outfield spots so OF’s are plentiful.

    Kemp for F-Her. Pull the trigger?

  25. Art Vandelay says:
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    Standard 5×5 league: Kennedy or Nolasco?

    Time to drop Cueto again (perhaps for Alvarez)?

  26. Ryan says:
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    How about I trade ludwick and colby lewis for cliff lee. Is that better? Do you think my offense can take the hit of losing ludwick?

    20 TEAM H2H DYNASTY LEAGUE

    c russel martin
    1b miguel cabrera
    2b howie kendrick
    3b edwin encarnacion
    ss ryan theriot
    if justin morneau
    lf chase headley
    cf colby rasmus
    rf justin upton
    of ryan ludwick
    util neil walker
    bn fucodome
    bn jose tabatha
    bn lastings milledge

    sp jon lester
    sp colby lewis
    sp mike leake
    sp clayton kershaw
    rp jose mijares
    rp rafael soriano
    rp c.j. wilson
    rp jason motte
    p ryan rowland smith
    p hisanori takahashi
    p homer bailey
    bn jason hammell
    bn geo gonzalez
    bn carlos carrasco
    bn brad lincoln

  27. Penguin says:
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    I’d be interested in finding out more, Jif. Send me something on the forums.

    How’d you rate these 3 Cs from here on:

    Santana
    Doumit
    Martin

  28. Van Hammersly says:
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    Grey, do you think that a Jimenez/Rasmus for Lincecum/Bruce swap is fair? Winner is the Lincecum side, right?

  29. quimmy says:
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    Offered the following in a 6×6 league where INN and TB+BB are the xtra cats:

    My: Votto, Utley, Ichiro and Nolasco
    For
    His: Adrian Gonzo, J.Lopez, Dread Pirate and Josh Johnson

    Im losing big time here yes?

    Would u counter with Utley for Johnson and Lopez if u needed the pitching?

  30. Killing Machine says:
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    My closer situation is Gregg/Axaford/AArdsma.

    I to this point have been 4th in saves in the league (one guy has 6 closers).

    Another guy is looking for any 2 closers for Utley.

    I am thinking about punting saves all together and beating people on waivers for the rest of the season to pick up closers.

    Please let me know that I am not crazy for going this route

  31. Big Nate says:
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    @Grey – What are your thoughts on Kinsler for the rest of the year? I’m considering offering up Posey and Uggla to see if I can get him. I’d then grab Soto off the waiver wire.

    What do you think?

  32. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    so…offer sent my way:

    my: votto, mmd, dlr
    his: j-up, marcum

    i have wright at 3B and weeks at 2B, and glaus for 1B (and smoak is still on my bench and could be usable if june signs of him coming out)

  33. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Killing Machine: i would, sagnof!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  34. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: oh wait, never mind, brain fart, other dude has bj upton, not j-up…so yeah strike that deal

    holliday or votto?

  35. cashmoney says:
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    Grey
    Who should I start in my last utility spot
    Boesch, Gomes or Kelly Johnson?

  36. mr baseball says:
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    Left handed power hitters – massive infield shift against them – the 2nd baseman plays in short right field now – they clubs have taken the shift to a new extreme – this has to put pressure on those hitter – I am sure they may have adjusted their swing in some way which is hurting their homerun production

  37. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    Who wins this trade Grey:

    Lester and Jaime

    for

    Wainwright and Liriano

  38. Nuke LaDouche says:
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    drop J. Lopez for Sean-Rod?

  39. joecoz1 says:
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    Grey–got to make a tough cut in my OF/bench for an arm–Abreu, V Wells, Bruce, Ibanez, Robot, Manny. Thoughts?

  40. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Eddy: wain/liriano side

  41. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @joecoz1: later raul

  42. FD says:
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    @Grey re: Kemp for F-Her, any reason why NG? seems like long term they could both have similar keeper values. our team lacks pitching this yr.

    thank you.

  43. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @FD: you could probably get more for kemp, or at least get a mid-tier bat with f-her. like say f-her + pence?

  44. Matt says:
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    Grey – how can you just point out Rasmus’ K% without noting his minor league track record (which suggests he’ll only improve his K%) and also this year’s BB%: 11th best in the league. That’s a good sign. And you can’t just compare his track record to last year, which was his transition to the majors. That doesn’t seem like a fair comparison.

  45. Kent Bottenfield says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Holliday’s post all-star break numbers the last 3 seasons is averaging a HR every 16.1 ABs, and a .333 avg.

    Votto’s post all-star break numbers for the past 2 seasons (in 2007 he only played 24 games): a HR every 19.4 ABs, and a .309 avg.

    Not a huge discrepency, but I’d take Holliday. Then again, Votto’s only 26, and this is only his 3rd full season so who knows what he’s capable of.

  46. mr baseball says:
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    It seems every former MLB player now has a job – Every 45 minutes there seems to be 4 new former players taking over the show

    MLB TONIGHT
    MLB LAST NIGHT
    MLB TOMORROW NIGHT
    MLB 11 WEEKS AGO

    come on with all the former MLB hitters that they hired – I want to know where Frank Tepedino is

  47. Ryan says:
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    So… Buck or Wieters or Kendall. Gotta pickup one, those are the best 3 avail I think.

  48. Big Nate says:
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    Are you worried that Kinsler is hiding an injury? He’s just been so incredibly bad….Batting .244 and his one homer came back on May 18th.

  49. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    grey –

    votto or holliday form here on out?

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Nate: He says his ankle is still bothering him.

  51. brad says:
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    with cojack going to the A’s would you take Parra over Andres Torres?

  52. JackInTheBox says:
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    @Grey: Thanks as always.

  53. Mr. Rickey says:
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    How would you rank these SF OFs the rest of the way:

    Rowand
    Schierholtz
    Burrell
    Bowker

  54. Seequinn says:
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    @Grey: Am I retarded for playing Stanton over Ryan Howard for just tonight? RyHo be-lows against lefties, he’s facing CC and the Yankees own him. And Stanton is bigger than a Decepticon.

  55. Martin says:
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    @grey- should i pick up alvarez and drop sean rod or freese? When do you think the call will come?

  56. Steve says:
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    @Mr. Rickey: Giants of the game, every one.

  57. Mr. Rickey says:
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    Correia or Takahashi assuming both must start every game?

  58. Kazmere says:
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    Dodgers placed RHP Chad Billingsley on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to June 12, with a groin strain.

  59. Seequinn says:
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    @Grey: Thanks. I think tight races in fantasy baseball makes dudes more irrational than PMS makes chicks.

  60. danimal35 says:
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    Spot start:

    Niese @ Cle
    Correia vs Tor

    Should I own any of these over Cueto given his recent struggles:

    Niese
    Floyd
    Hammel
    Medlen

  61. barker says:
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    20 team league 30 man rosters
    5 OF counts holds

    i give magglio and masterson
    i get R soriano and teahen

    current OF holliday pence maggs hawpe matsui francoeur burrell

    current relievers villanueva wood feliciano axford heilman benoit storen

    and which on of these relievers would u drop to accommodate soriano b/c i have limited spots for RP or try to trade wood for dogshit

  62. tourinct says:
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    10 team 5×5 roto. 9 keepers. 1800 IP cap. Currently in 3rd place 7.5 points back. Currently 4th or 5th in R, HR, RBI and SB and suffering in ERA & Whip and with low W/9 and K/9. I’ve be offered Carpenter and Burnett for Sandoval and Kinsler. I would replace them with some combination of J. Lopez, Aviles , Borbon, Alvarez and Huff, and drop Wolfe and Correia. But he also has Lester, Liriano, Hughes, Strasburg and Garza. Two part question, trade overall and which two pitchers would you ask for. I really don’t want Burnett… wouldn’t even keep him. Trade two keepers, need two in return.

  63. danimal35 says:
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    Also Weiters was just dropped…I have Santana at C…would you recommend picking up Weiters and trying to trade Santana for an upgrade elsewhere…or just enjoy Santana’s hope?

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tourinct: The trade as it stands not is not even close. I’d want Strasburg, Lester, Hughes, or Liriano, in that order. I’d want at least two of them.

    @danimal35: Own only one catcher.

  65. GTS says:
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    Better CI pick up for the next week or so: Gaby Sanchez or Kouz?

  66. Nuke LaDouche says:
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    Would you guys trade D-Lee for Aaron Hill if you could plug Panda in at first. Current 2B is J. Lopez. Basically, who do you think is more valuable long haul Lee or Hill? Thanks.

  67. joecoz1 says:
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    Thanks Grey and crew!

  68. black love says:
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    Do you think Adam Lind is worth owning at this point?
    I read where you thought maybe hes good for 25Hrs this year but do you think only 25 is worth his terrible avg?

  69. tHe ShiT says:
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    @Grey: Since Bills is now on the DL, gotta drop either S-Rod, Boesch, PacMan, Snider(DL). Which one gets the ax?

  70. tHe ShiT says:
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    @Grey: I will pick another SP by the way…

  71. sparts says:
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    12 Team League
    I would get Ichiro
    I give Cueto and J. Weaver

    My SP are:
    Verlander
    Ubaldo
    Garza
    Price
    Weaver
    Cueto

    OF are:
    Choo
    Adam Jones
    Rasmus
    Raji Davis

    Currently 2nd in the league and winning most pitching catagories but am weak in average. I Was going to counter offer Weaver for Ichiro strait up.

    Good move or Bad?

  72. Ron Washington's Stache says:
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    I want to add Heilman, so I’d have to drop either Kerry Wood or Brandon Morrow…thoughts?

  73. Ron Washington's Stache says:
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    @sparts: You dealt from a position of strength, but I’m not sure Ichiro is any more valuable than Weaver, so there was no need to throw in Cueto.
    @Nuke LaDouche: Lee > Hill

  74. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Hopefully Dunc has cured Suppan of his dyslexia…………maybe he’ll go back to giving up 3 runs in 6 innings instead of 6 runs in 3!

  75. Dr. Orlando Schadenfreude says:
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    I need to make room on my roster in a shallow league, which of these players do I cut?

    Ian Stewart, Jose Lopez, Huff, Stanton

  76. tHe ShiT says:
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    @Grey: ok pick up Paulino, Niese, Kennedy, Scherzer, Masterson, Hammel, Hochevar? Need the best one… gracias!

  77. Eddie says:
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    Ok, time to come clean, Piniella. “Three Finger” Koyie Hill is now the starter, and Geo is the backup. Just admit it.

  78. Wilsonian says:
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    With Soto out of the lineup, again, do you think he should be an outright drop for Sean-Rod when I have Supernatural as well?

    Also, who wins: Wright/Bay for Howard/Rasmus?

    Thanks!

  79. Andy says:
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    @Grey: Big trade! Need help!

    I send Pujols, Zobrist, Alfredo Simon

    I get Votto, Liriano, Wagner

    Mind you my only SPs are Garza and Josh Johnson. Billingsley just hit the DL. Guys like Scott Baker, Ervin Santana, and Jonny Cueto are on the wire however.

    What do you think?

  80. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddie: Ha

    @Wilsonian: Sure, go for Sean-Rod. Wright side, but it’s fair.

  81. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Andy: I’d take the Votto side if you Liriano.

  82. GTS says:
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    Bench Baker tomorrow vs COL or if you have him, start him?

  83. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian: Thanks for the heads up!

    @GTS: I’d bench him.

  84. bodymore says:
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    Traded Adam Jones for Smoak, so I am reluctant to drop him. I picked up Alvarez for CI insurance anyway. Didn’t want to miss out on Heilman, so I ended up dropping Quentin who is being benched against a righty tonight. Was this the right move or should I hope to scoop Quentin back up if he clears waivers? Keep 5 OPS league.

  85. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @bodymore: I would’ve dropped Smoak, but it’s fine.

  86. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: same deal as earlier, but some pitchers might have been added (only preliminary discussions), so it would be Wright/Bay/Cain for Howard/Rasmus/Verlander. Still fair and still leaning slightly Wright-side?

  87. Wilsonian says:
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    @Grey: thanks, maybe we should leave the pitchers out of it. I’m assuming you’re of the thinking that Verlander will remain at this level or get better, and Cain is going to regress (he was in the Buy/Sell last Friday, wasn’t he?)?

  88. danimal35 says:
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    I guess starting Masterson wasn’t such a good idea

  89. mr baseball says:
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    This is my deal – no matter what the match ups are I play my regulars today I decide to pull Swisher and Granderson out of the lineup against the Doc – thats why I am a loser

  90. Steve says:
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    @mr baseball: I hear ya. Sat Grandy (despite his decent record against Doc) in one league for Bay. Not working out so well thus far.

  91. mr baseball says:
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    what is even worst for me the replacement was LIND

  92. Eddy says:
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    Has there been a more boring series all year than the Astros and Royals matchup?

  93. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Maybe not, but Astros vs. everyone is pretty close 2nd.

  94. hoju says:
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    Possible trade. 12 team H2H non-keeper.

    I sell Lincecum, Wagner, O-Cab.

    I get Hanley, Qualls, Braden.

    Is Ramirez worth that dropoff in pitching?? My other starters are Greinke, Hudson, Buchholz, Bonderman, Kuroda, Takahashi and Cueto. I’m not too concerned about the RP exchange. I have Axford and there’s other closers on the waivers (I know Qualls is losing his job).

  95. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @hoju: I’d take Hanley there.

  96. peter says:
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    Btw, I’m feelin’ Pavano’s mustache… and, could that be a soul patch beneath his lip? Pavano is starting to look like Frank Zappa.

    To replace Billingsley, 2 different leagues (both h2h):

    One: Carmona, CJ Wilson, Floyd, E Jax

    Two: Carmona, Galarraga, Neise, Guthrie

  97. Big Nate says:
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    Argh – Both my DL slots are filled and I have nowhere to put Bills. Time to drop Aramis outright if I have Figgy to plug for the remainder of the season? Or, do I hold on for the fantasy goodness upon his return?

  98. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    will you say something
    to make utley come “alive” ?

    i’d appreciate that .

  99. Big Nate says:
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    Theriot or Brignac at SS?

  100. EffenHooer says:
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    I just saw the news that Brian Roberts is out another 4-6 weeks.

    What do y’all think: dump Roberts?

    Am I the only one who’s held onto him?

  101. Calogero says:
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    Posted in the forum, but there is no action over there:

    I’m trading Carl Crawford in my 5×5 roto. Who should I get back?

    1. Gallardo and Rasmus
    2. Greinke and Abreu
    3. Lester and Ludwick/Kubel/Pence (choose one)

    Extra info: I currently have 1′s in ERA and WHIP and 2 in W. Otherwise, I think I could definitely compete for a top 3 spot and finishing in the money.

    My #1 priority is to get back a keeper level SP. We keep 6-8 keepers per year, the only locks right now are Pujols, Longoria, McCutchen and Hanson along with probably Garza, maybe Zobrist, maybe Javy Vazquez if he continues his June pitching through Sept, and that’s really all (not counting Crawford, of course). What do we say?

  102. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @peter: Stache isn’t bad at all. Wilson, Niese…

    @Big Nate: Lose him.

    @big o: I’ll do what I can.

    @Big Nate: Theriot…

    @EffenHooer: Lose him.

    @Calogero: All the deals are fine. 1, 3 with Ludwick and 2, in that order.

  103. Steve says:
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    WTF has happened to Erv-San?

  104. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ugh, that’s a terrible line.

  105. Bill Lumbergh says:
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    @Steve: Not sure, but I’m glad I sold high!

  106. royce! says:
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    @Steve: Oops, sorry. I added him to my team.

    Just kidding. I’ve had him for a while. Not sure how much longer though.

  107. Bill Lumbergh says:
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    @Steve: It should be noted that I also recently sold high on both Hamilton and Filthy Sanchez. If this trend continues, you can fully expect them to crap the bed soon!

  108. Terrence Mann says:
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    My razzball homerun jinx continues.

    I added Matt Tolbert Sunday and in his first game on my roster, he goes yard.

    I know y’all don’t care about my homerun jinx updates but I’m going to continue to post them out of frustration!

  109. mauledbypandas says:
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    Maybe Ervin can really put the bow on this present and walk a bunch of guys.

  110. phil says:
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    question on rasmus…so you’re using two comparative stats from last year, which was his first at age 23, he’s not yet 24, so I don’t think he’s established his numbers enough to say he’s going to regress with any certainty.

    He’s a streaky hitter as I’ve noticed thus far this season, but power and speed seem for real. 30/25 is a generous prediction, but possible. However the K rate is worrisome, but when have we known Larussa to worry about a thing like that?

  111. Steve says:
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    @mauledbypandas: Nah – he’s really rolling now.

  112. dsimon says:
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    Hey Grey, I know SAGNOF, but in my big keeper league we also count holds, so its much harder to jump on saves from waivers.

    I’m considering my Smoak for his Aardsma. I’ve heard the Rangers are looking for a righty 1B and might platoon Smoak, plus Qualls is done as the closer in AZ it appears, and Heilman is rostered. Thoughts?

  113. dsimon says:
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    Also, is it reasonable to drop Qualls at this point?

  114. royce! says:
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    @phil: I agree that due to Rasmus’ youth, there might not be a baseline to which you could convincingly contrast Rasmus’ current .375 BABIP, but, like Bautista, 6 of Rasmus’ HR this year were “Just Enoughs,” so I think it’s fair to expect a regression on the HR/FB at least. Due to his high K% and top-10 BABIP, I would bet on a regression in the AVG dept as well, but you are right that his relative youth reduces the power of that argument.

  115. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mauledbypandas: Ha

    @phil: You make fair points. I’m just saying he doesn’t look like a 30 homer guy. He looks like a 20/20 guy, posing as a 30 homer guy. Hey Aaron Hill hit 35 homers last year and Bautista’s hit god knows how many this year, so anything’s possible. Nothing’s foolproof.

    @dsimon: Smoak looks like he’s in trouble this year, but I don’t like that in a keeper. I wouldn’t drop Qualls either in a “big keeper league.”

  116. Donnie Baseball says:
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    Adam Jones, never doubted him for a minute.

  117. Big Nate says:
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    @Donnie Baseball – He’s doing his best to stay on our rosters, isn’t he? I’ve been telling myself I’m going to drop him for weeks now but he is somehow sticking in my lineup…just so much upside. However, Judgment Day is approaching quickly with Nelson Cruz coming off the DL….

    I recently grabbed Delmon Young and that guy looks like he’s finally breaking out…

    Drop Delmon or Pacman?

  118. Kazmere says:
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    Manny cleared waivers in my 12 tm roto. Should I care? My OF is JUpton, Grandy, Bruce, Pierre/Robot (bench).

  119. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Big Nate: Young

    @Steve: Thanks for the heads up!

    @Kazmere: Depends who you’re dropping for him, but it looks like your outfield is set.

  120. Kazmere says:
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    One more… I know the rule is Don’t carry more than 1 catcher. I had intended to trade Posada, but no one wanted him. I have Napoli too. After 2 grand slams I’m getting some interest. Before I move him, just wanted to get your thoughts on Napoli’s playing time once Mathis returns, not to mention if/when the Angels pick up a 1B (Konerko?).

  121. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Kazmere: Napoli may lose some playing time, nothing’s for sure there. Unless there’s no catchers on waivers though, I’d trade Posada anyway, assuming you get someone worthwhile. You’ll be fine with Napoli or someone else.

  122. Steve says:
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    Hernandez on for the save…

  123. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yeah, because Samuel said it would be Simon. *shakes fist*

  124. Steve says:
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    @Grey: *Pumps fist* Still have him on a couple of teams, but dropped him in the RCL to grab Alvarez so won’t get this one.

  125. penpen says:
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    To add myself to the list of Rasmus Apologists, I’d like to present the following piece of evidence:

    http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/8951D23E76D22474862577370008C070?OpenDocument

    April BB:K Ratio – 17:22
    May BB:K Ratio – 11:33
    June BB:K Ratio – 4:6

    Colby got the new lenses on June 1 and wore them to a game that night, where he went 3 for 5 with a homer, in the process creating the following ridiculous monthly splits

    April OPS – 1.171
    May OPS – .677 [the bad eyes/allergies month]
    June OPS – 1.347

  126. NukeLaDouche says:
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    I just got offered Utley and Markakis for D-Lee and Heyward. My other outfielders are Ethier, Pence, Soriano, and Cruz when he gets back. This is a no brainer right? J. Lopez is my 2B.

  127. ViagraFalls says:
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    I get that slumps happen, but aside from “The Machine” re-booting his software along with Rasmus getting hot, what the hell is going on with the Cardinals? It’s painful right now to own Matt Holliday, who we would normally expect to be dealing left and right.

    I start him every game because, well, he’s Matt Holliday and you hope he snaps out of this. But it increasingly is pushing to me to think about benching him to start Hunter, Heyward, Granderson and Byrd instead.

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