If you’ve ever watched a game (if you haven’t, I suggest it sometime) and thought, “Everything this doode hits is dropping in. And why am I spelling dude wrong when I’m saying it aloud?” then you know where I’m going in this post. Some guys are just born lucky, other guys sit under bird cages hoping they’re crapped on. To refresh (that’s your cue to skip ahead, if you know this shizz): BABIP is a quick way to know how much luck a hitter is having. There’s more to it, but for the purposes of this, a high BABIP for a hitter and it means the hitter could hit a bloop single just over the pitcher’s head with the infield drawn in. Below .200 and the hitter could hit a line drive into the Grand Canyon and it would get caught by Alice on the back of a mule. Then there’s HR/FB%, which is a quick way to know if a hitter is hitting more home runs than what makes sense for that player’s amount of fly balls. Then there’s LD%, which is the percentage of hits that are line drives. Line drives are usually a sign of solid contact aka a player is hitting the ball hard. Finally, K% or the percentage a hitter Ks. Anyway, here’s some hitters that have been lucky or unlucky so far for fantasy baseball:
Jose Bautista – HR/FB% is way above where his career marks are. Also, has 6 homers that are “Just Enoughs,” which is 2nd in the AL. (BTW, that site I just linked to is a good place to lose 2 hours.) Doesn’t take a genius to see Bautista’s start to the season is unheard of for him, but how long will it last? Will it be a career year or a career 1st half? I’d bet on the latter.
Colby Rasmus – I’m actually a fan of Rasmus, but, and there’s always a but unless you’re an alien, Ramus’s HR/FB% is way above where he was last year, he has the 4th worst K% in the major leagues and his BABIP is about 75 points above his career mark. He can get to 20/20, but I don’t think he’s going to fly past those numbers.
Justin Morneau – Probably goes without saying, but his .350 average is an aberration wrapped in total B.S.
Prince Fielder – Current HR/FB% is pretty far off his career rate, where all his other numbers look pretty normal, except his infield fly ball percentage is high. In fact, the one thing in common with all his off years is how his infield pop up numbers go up. He’s still good for 35 homers, but I think it’s safe to kiss away 45+ homers at this point.
Jay Bruce – Currently leads the league in “No Doubt” home runs. Unfortunately, none of my leagues have Homer Distance as a category. His HR/FB is below where it should be, so hopefully more balls fly out of the yard in the 2nd half.
Evan Longoria – He’s made progress with his K%, hasn’t lost much on his BB% and he’s getting good wood on the ball. Still, his HR/FB is down. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get crazy/hot at some point.
Jayson Werth – His FB% is up, but his HR/FB% is down. In Citizens Flank, I’d expect him to start chucking more balls at drunk bleacher babies.