Hitters Coming Correct
June 15, 2010
Category: fantasy baseball strategy
If you’ve ever watched a game (if you haven’t, I suggest it sometime) and thought, “Everything this doode hits is dropping in. And why am I spelling dude wrong when I’m saying it aloud?” then you know where I’m going in this post. Some guys are just born lucky, other guys sit under bird cages hoping they’re crapped on. To refresh (that’s your cue to skip ahead, if you know this shizz): BABIP is a quick way to know how much luck a hitter is having. There’s more to it, but for the purposes of this, a high BABIP for a hitter and it means the hitter could hit a bloop single just over the pitcher’s head with the infield drawn in. Below .200 and the hitter could hit a line drive into the Grand Canyon and it would get caught by Alice on the back of a mule. Then there’s HR/FB%, which is a quick way to know if a hitter is hitting more home runs than what makes sense for that player’s amount of fly balls. Then there’s LD%, which is the percentage of hits that are line drives. Line drives are usually a sign of solid contact aka a player is hitting the ball hard. Finally, K% or the percentage a hitter Ks. Anyway, here’s some hitters that have been lucky or unlucky so far for fantasy baseball:
Jose Bautista – HR/FB% is way above where his career marks are. Also, has 6 homers that are “Just Enoughs,” which is 2nd in the AL. (BTW, that site I just linked to is a good place to lose 2 hours.) Doesn’t take a genius to see Bautista’s start to the season is unheard of for him, but how long will it last? Will it be a career year or a career 1st half? I’d bet on the latter.
Colby Rasmus – I’m actually a fan of Rasmus, but, and there’s always a but unless you’re an alien, Ramus’s HR/FB% is way above where he was last year, he has the 4th worst K% in the major leagues and his BABIP is about 75 points above his career mark. He can get to 20/20, but I don’t think he’s going to fly past those numbers.
Justin Morneau – Probably goes without saying, but his .350 average is an aberration wrapped in total B.S.
Prince Fielder – Current HR/FB% is pretty far off his career rate, where all his other numbers look pretty normal, except his infield fly ball percentage is high. In fact, the one thing in common with all his off years is how his infield pop up numbers go up. He’s still good for 35 homers, but I think it’s safe to kiss away 45+ homers at this point.
Jay Bruce – Currently leads the league in “No Doubt” home runs. Unfortunately, none of my leagues have Homer Distance as a category. His HR/FB is below where it should be, so hopefully more balls fly out of the yard in the 2nd half.
Evan Longoria – He’s made progress with his K%, hasn’t lost much on his BB% and he’s getting good wood on the ball. Still, his HR/FB is down. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him get crazy/hot at some point.
Jayson Werth – His FB% is up, but his HR/FB% is down. In Citizens Flank, I’d expect him to start chucking more balls at drunk bleacher babies.
June 15th, 2010 at 11:05 am
Grey is Alvarez getting called up today?
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:07 am
Longoria crazy/hot? Would that make him an “avoid” unless you’re in college and wearing beer goggles?
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@Mets fan: Tomorrow, I heard.
@peter: Ha
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:10 am
How would you rank Bruce and Rasmus ( and Krispie and Abreu) for the rest of the year?
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:12 am
Start Cahill in Chicago tonight?
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:14 am
Or Pavano against the Rockies?
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:16 am
What’s your take on an Ubaldo/Rasmus for F-Her/Werth or Wainwright/Werth deal in an 8 Team H2H Keeper?
Props to @peter: in the crazy/hot department…
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:18 am
So how about Soriano? What do his numbers look like? He’s been a turd lately, similar to Werth……I’m wondering if he’s going to heat up again.
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:19 am
What about Ryan Howard? His HR/FB% is way down too and there are these disquieting articles on him too:
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ryan-howards-odd-decline/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ryan-howard-and-handedness/
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:27 am
Grey
In regards to Jose Bautista, does it matter that he is tied for the lead with the “No Doubt” homers? Dude has not been given a shot at a full year since 2004 and was only 23. Seems though the year of his 30th birthday he found his power…. definitely not complaining for a FA 3rd baseman
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:35 am
@Mr2Bits: Pretty much the only thing that matters is what gets you the championship. If you want to hold onto Bautista go ahead. Stats show that it may be a mistake but results aren’t always what stats tell us they will be.
Personally, I wouldn’t touch Bautista. The guy in my league has been trying to sell off Bautista for about a month but no one is taking his 2 for 1 offers. It’s tough to believe it will last.
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@Brian: Bruce, Krispie, Rasmus…
@Nuke LaDouche: Cahill… Not crazy about either.
@Wilsonian: I’d take F-Her and Werth. Or Wainwright and Werth.
@Frank Rizzo: He’s injury-prone and always hits well in May, which has passed.
@Tom Emanski: Thanks for the heads up, will have to read them when I get a second.
@Mr2Bits: When he get a guy off the wire that hits you that many homers, you’re playing with the house’s money. Just saying that it probably won’t continue.
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:44 am
H2H league with AVG and OBP / WINS and QS. In a vacuum, is Ian Stewart for Ian Kennedy good value? Stewart’s been riding my bench and UTIL, and I picked up S-Rod. But since I’m looking for wins, I don’t like my chances what with AZ’s bullpen. Thanks!
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:45 am
@Grey – Rest of the season at 3B – Smashbuckler, A-Ram, Figgy or Mr. Freese?
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:45 am
Do I start Ian Kennedy vs Boston tonite as they have been raking lately?
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:47 am
Hamilton/Vargas for Ubaldo/Gregg
Who ya got?
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:54 am
Non keeper rest of year h2h
Posada, Santana or Posey?
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@Big Nate: Figgy or Alvarez, depends on needs.
@Joe B: I wouldn’t.
@JackInTheBox: Ubaldo…
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@Casey Blake’s Beard: Sure, Kennedy’s fine there.
@Ryan: Posada…
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:02 pm
We have two minors spots in my 16-team H2H-POINTS Keeper League. Anyone in the minors as of Sept 1st can be kept the following year for free, (doesn’t matter if he was up and down already during the season).
It’s the kind of league where you want to stash minors guys who are close to coming up or within a year of coming up, not long term projects.
That being said, Chris Carter (OAK) and Chris Davis are currently in my minors. Scott Sizemore is a free agent and he’s been raking in AAA. For some reason, I have an unhealthy allegiance to Davis who has burned me more than once.
Should I bother to continue to own Davis? Should I dump Davis for Sizemore?
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@Commish Cauda: I’d own Davis over Sizemore.
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
@ anyone who cares to chime in…
im negotiating a deal in my 12 team head to head keeper league where we can keep six guys next year. Im in first right now so im reluctant to make any moves but i just got offered his wright/F-Her/B.Wilson for my Ubaldo and Kinsler plus a first round pick next year.
I have uggla and mcgehee hanging around at 2nd but im just worried about not getting fair value for ubaldo – thoughts?
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
@Grey: thanks…saves me from taking apart the shrine I have to him in my basement
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:15 pm
In my 20 team dynasty league I was offered carlos gonzalez and cliff lee for morneau ludwick and colby lewis. Is this a trade I should accept?
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:20 pm
@grey- would you start ian kennedy tonight @ Boston in a 12 team mixed league?
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:23 pm
Starting a new league next year, borrowing from an old league that I’m in and love, and we’ll start a preliminary draft offline as soon as July.
Several guys from here are joining – and the nine commitments I have are some of the best fantasy owners I’ve ever played against. Three spots left – very deep 32-man rosters. If you’re interested in learning more, let me know and I’ll send a detailed league charter for you to review.
My expectations are that this league will be around a very long time.
Meanwhile:
Grey: Medlen, Niese, LeBlanc, E. Jackson for rest of year? Thanks.
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@CHoP Suey: I’d take the Wright side.
@Commish Cauda: Ha
@Ryan: I wouldn’t.
@Martin: Nope…
@Jif & The Choosy Mothers: LeBlanc (at home), Niese, Edwin…
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:29 pm
Guthrie worth a start against the Giants in H2H tomorrow?
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:31 pm
@Grey: Do you think it is close/fair?
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:32 pm
5×5 yahoo keeper league, only 3 outfield spots so OF’s are plentiful.
Kemp for F-Her. Pull the trigger?
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@Steve: Sure…
@JackInTheBox: Yeah, it’s fair.
@FD: I wouldn’t.
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:42 pm
Standard 5×5 league: Kennedy or Nolasco?
Time to drop Cueto again (perhaps for Alvarez)?
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:47 pm
How about I trade ludwick and colby lewis for cliff lee. Is that better? Do you think my offense can take the hit of losing ludwick?
20 TEAM H2H DYNASTY LEAGUE
c russel martin
1b miguel cabrera
2b howie kendrick
3b edwin encarnacion
ss ryan theriot
if justin morneau
lf chase headley
cf colby rasmus
rf justin upton
of ryan ludwick
util neil walker
bn fucodome
bn jose tabatha
bn lastings milledge
sp jon lester
sp colby lewis
sp mike leake
sp clayton kershaw
rp jose mijares
rp rafael soriano
rp c.j. wilson
rp jason motte
p ryan rowland smith
p hisanori takahashi
p homer bailey
bn jason hammell
bn geo gonzalez
bn carlos carrasco
bn brad lincoln
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June 15th, 2010 at 12:51 pm
I’d be interested in finding out more, Jif. Send me something on the forums.
How’d you rate these 3 Cs from here on:
Santana
Doumit
Martin
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:04 pm
Grey, do you think that a Jimenez/Rasmus for Lincecum/Bruce swap is fair? Winner is the Lincecum side, right?
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:05 pm
Offered the following in a 6×6 league where INN and TB+BB are the xtra cats:
My: Votto, Utley, Ichiro and Nolasco
For
His: Adrian Gonzo, J.Lopez, Dread Pirate and Josh Johnson
Im losing big time here yes?
Would u counter with Utley for Johnson and Lopez if u needed the pitching?
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:15 pm
My closer situation is Gregg/Axaford/AArdsma.
I to this point have been 4th in saves in the league (one guy has 6 closers).
Another guy is looking for any 2 closers for Utley.
I am thinking about punting saves all together and beating people on waivers for the rest of the season to pick up closers.
Please let me know that I am not crazy for going this route
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:15 pm
@Grey – What are your thoughts on Kinsler for the rest of the year? I’m considering offering up Posey and Uggla to see if I can get him. I’d then grab Soto off the waiver wire.
What do you think?
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
so…offer sent my way:
my: votto, mmd, dlr
his: j-up, marcum
i have wright at 3B and weeks at 2B, and glaus for 1B (and smoak is still on my bench and could be usable if june signs of him coming out)
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
@Killing Machine: i would, sagnof!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:24 pm
@ThePoonTycoon: oh wait, never mind, brain fart, other dude has bj upton, not j-up…so yeah strike that deal
holliday or votto?
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:26 pm
Grey
Who should I start in my last utility spot
Boesch, Gomes or Kelly Johnson?
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:29 pm
Left handed power hitters – massive infield shift against them – the 2nd baseman plays in short right field now – they clubs have taken the shift to a new extreme – this has to put pressure on those hitter – I am sure they may have adjusted their swing in some way which is hurting their homerun production
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:33 pm
@Grey:
Who wins this trade Grey:
Lester and Jaime
for
Wainwright and Liriano
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:34 pm
drop J. Lopez for Sean-Rod?
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:38 pm
Grey–got to make a tough cut in my OF/bench for an arm–Abreu, V Wells, Bruce, Ibanez, Robot, Manny. Thoughts?
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:38 pm
@Eddy: wain/liriano side
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June 15th, 2010 at 1:41 pm
@joecoz1: later raul
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:00 pm
@Grey re: Kemp for F-Her, any reason why NG? seems like long term they could both have similar keeper values. our team lacks pitching this yr.
thank you.
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
@FD: you could probably get more for kemp, or at least get a mid-tier bat with f-her. like say f-her + pence?
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:02 pm
Grey – how can you just point out Rasmus’ K% without noting his minor league track record (which suggests he’ll only improve his K%) and also this year’s BB%: 11th best in the league. That’s a good sign. And you can’t just compare his track record to last year, which was his transition to the majors. That doesn’t seem like a fair comparison.
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@Art Vandelay: Alvarez, Nolasco…
@Ryan: More importantly, I don’t see why you need Lee.
@Penguin: The order you have them.
@Van Hammersly: I’d take the Bruce side, yeah.
@quimmy: I wouldn’t do that trade or the Utley one.
@Killing Machine: I’d want Utley.
@Big Nate: Looks like a good trade for you.
@cashmoney: Depends on matchups… Boesch.
@mr baseball: Yeah, could be.
@Eddy: What Poon said.
@Nuke LaDouche: Eh
@joecoz1: Raul…
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:05 pm
@ThePoonTycoon: Holliday’s post all-star break numbers the last 3 seasons is averaging a HR every 16.1 ABs, and a .333 avg.
Votto’s post all-star break numbers for the past 2 seasons (in 2007 he only played 24 games): a HR every 19.4 ABs, and a .309 avg.
Not a huge discrepency, but I’d take Holliday. Then again, Votto’s only 26, and this is only his 3rd full season so who knows what he’s capable of.
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:08 pm
It seems every former MLB player now has a job – Every 45 minutes there seems to be 4 new former players taking over the show
MLB TONIGHT
MLB LAST NIGHT
MLB TOMORROW NIGHT
MLB 11 WEEKS AGO
come on with all the former MLB hitters that they hired – I want to know where Frank Tepedino is
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
So… Buck or Wieters or Kendall. Gotta pickup one, those are the best 3 avail I think.
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@mr baseball: Ha!
@Ryan: Wieters…
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:16 pm
Are you worried that Kinsler is hiding an injury? He’s just been so incredibly bad….Batting .244 and his one homer came back on May 18th.
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:18 pm
grey –
votto or holliday form here on out?
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@Big Nate: He says his ankle is still bothering him.
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@ThePoonTycoon: Votto
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:21 pm
with cojack going to the A’s would you take Parra over Andres Torres?
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:26 pm
@Grey: Thanks as always.
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@brad: Nah…
@JackInTheBox: No problem.
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:32 pm
How would you rank these SF OFs the rest of the way:
Rowand
Schierholtz
Burrell
Bowker
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
@Grey: Am I retarded for playing Stanton over Ryan Howard for just tonight? RyHo be-lows against lefties, he’s facing CC and the Yankees own him. And Stanton is bigger than a Decepticon.
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:35 pm
@grey- should i pick up alvarez and drop sean rod or freese? When do you think the call will come?
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:36 pm
@Mr. Rickey: Giants of the game, every one.
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@Mr. Rickey: Burrell, punt…
@Seequinn: I wouldn’t bench Howard ever.
@Martin: Drop Freese.
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:50 pm
Correia or Takahashi assuming both must start every game?
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@Mr. Rickey: Correia…
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:54 pm
Dodgers placed RHP Chad Billingsley on the 15-day disabled list, retroactive to June 12, with a groin strain.
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June 15th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
@Grey: Thanks. I think tight races in fantasy baseball makes dudes more irrational than PMS makes chicks.
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:06 pm
Spot start:
Niese @ Cle
Correia vs Tor
Should I own any of these over Cueto given his recent struggles:
Niese
Floyd
Hammel
Medlen
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:07 pm
20 team league 30 man rosters
5 OF counts holds
i give magglio and masterson
i get R soriano and teahen
current OF holliday pence maggs hawpe matsui francoeur burrell
current relievers villanueva wood feliciano axford heilman benoit storen
and which on of these relievers would u drop to accommodate soriano b/c i have limited spots for RP or try to trade wood for dogshit
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@Kazmere: Thanks for the heads up!
@Seequinn: Hehe
@danimal35: Correia… Medlen…
@barker: That’s not good for you.
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:22 pm
10 team 5×5 roto. 9 keepers. 1800 IP cap. Currently in 3rd place 7.5 points back. Currently 4th or 5th in R, HR, RBI and SB and suffering in ERA & Whip and with low W/9 and K/9. I’ve be offered Carpenter and Burnett for Sandoval and Kinsler. I would replace them with some combination of J. Lopez, Aviles , Borbon, Alvarez and Huff, and drop Wolfe and Correia. But he also has Lester, Liriano, Hughes, Strasburg and Garza. Two part question, trade overall and which two pitchers would you ask for. I really don’t want Burnett… wouldn’t even keep him. Trade two keepers, need two in return.
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:23 pm
Also Weiters was just dropped…I have Santana at C…would you recommend picking up Weiters and trying to trade Santana for an upgrade elsewhere…or just enjoy Santana’s hope?
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@tourinct: The trade as it stands not is not even close. I’d want Strasburg, Lester, Hughes, or Liriano, in that order. I’d want at least two of them.
@danimal35: Own only one catcher.
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:28 pm
Better CI pick up for the next week or so: Gaby Sanchez or Kouz?
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:31 pm
Would you guys trade D-Lee for Aaron Hill if you could plug Panda in at first. Current 2B is J. Lopez. Basically, who do you think is more valuable long haul Lee or Hill? Thanks.
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:40 pm
Thanks Grey and crew!
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:47 pm
Do you think Adam Lind is worth owning at this point?
I read where you thought maybe hes good for 25Hrs this year but do you think only 25 is worth his terrible avg?
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@GTS: Gaby…
@Nuke LaDouche: I’d take Hill.
@joecoz1: No problem.
@black love: Depends on league size.
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June 15th, 2010 at 3:59 pm
@Grey: Since Bills is now on the DL, gotta drop either S-Rod, Boesch, PacMan, Snider(DL). Which one gets the ax?
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
@Grey: I will pick another SP by the way…
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:06 pm
12 Team League
I would get Ichiro
I give Cueto and J. Weaver
My SP are:
Verlander
Ubaldo
Garza
Price
Weaver
Cueto
OF are:
Choo
Adam Jones
Rasmus
Raji Davis
Currently 2nd in the league and winning most pitching catagories but am weak in average. I Was going to counter offer Weaver for Ichiro strait up.
Good move or Bad?
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:09 pm
I want to add Heilman, so I’d have to drop either Kerry Wood or Brandon Morrow…thoughts?
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
@sparts: You dealt from a position of strength, but I’m not sure Ichiro is any more valuable than Weaver, so there was no need to throw in Cueto.
@Nuke LaDouche: Lee > Hill
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:12 pm
@Grey: Hopefully Dunc has cured Suppan of his dyslexia…………maybe he’ll go back to giving up 3 runs in 6 innings instead of 6 runs in 3!
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@tHe ShiT: Snider…
@sparts: Sure, take Ichiro there.
@Ron Washington’s Stache: Lose Morrow.
@BigFatHippo: Ha!
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:23 pm
I need to make room on my roster in a shallow league, which of these players do I cut?
Ian Stewart, Jose Lopez, Huff, Stanton
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:24 pm
@Grey: ok pick up Paulino, Niese, Kennedy, Scherzer, Masterson, Hammel, Hochevar? Need the best one… gracias!
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@Dr. Orlando Schadenfreude: Huff…
@tHe ShiT: Kennedy…
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:54 pm
Ok, time to come clean, Piniella. “Three Finger” Koyie Hill is now the starter, and Geo is the backup. Just admit it.
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:57 pm
With Soto out of the lineup, again, do you think he should be an outright drop for Sean-Rod when I have Supernatural as well?
Also, who wins: Wright/Bay for Howard/Rasmus?
Thanks!
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June 15th, 2010 at 4:58 pm
@Grey: Big trade! Need help!
I send Pujols, Zobrist, Alfredo Simon
I get Votto, Liriano, Wagner
Mind you my only SPs are Garza and Josh Johnson. Billingsley just hit the DL. Guys like Scott Baker, Ervin Santana, and Jonny Cueto are on the wire however.
What do you think?
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@Eddie: Ha
@Wilsonian: Sure, go for Sean-Rod. Wright side, but it’s fair.
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@Andy: I’d take the Votto side if you Liriano.
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:01 pm
Article saying Arizona is going to use Heilman at closer:
http://mlb.fanhouse.com/2010/06/15/aaron-heilman-is-arizonas-new-closer/
If you read the article all Hinch is saying is that Qualls won’t close tonight or tomorrow night, but it could be a long term change as well.
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:02 pm
Bench Baker tomorrow vs COL or if you have him, start him?
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@Brian: Thanks for the heads up!
@GTS: I’d bench him.
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:09 pm
Traded Adam Jones for Smoak, so I am reluctant to drop him. I picked up Alvarez for CI insurance anyway. Didn’t want to miss out on Heilman, so I ended up dropping Quentin who is being benched against a righty tonight. Was this the right move or should I hope to scoop Quentin back up if he clears waivers? Keep 5 OPS league.
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@bodymore: I would’ve dropped Smoak, but it’s fine.
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:21 pm
@Grey: same deal as earlier, but some pitchers might have been added (only preliminary discussions), so it would be Wright/Bay/Cain for Howard/Rasmus/Verlander. Still fair and still leaning slightly Wright-side?
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@Wilsonian: I’d take the Howard side.
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:25 pm
@Grey: thanks, maybe we should leave the pitchers out of it. I’m assuming you’re of the thinking that Verlander will remain at this level or get better, and Cain is going to regress (he was in the Buy/Sell last Friday, wasn’t he?)?
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:28 pm
I guess starting Masterson wasn’t such a good idea
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:29 pm
This is my deal – no matter what the match ups are I play my regulars today I decide to pull Swisher and Granderson out of the lineup against the Doc – thats why I am a loser
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:30 pm
http://killingtimewithijahamran.files.wordpress.com/2009/12/loser-11250699604.jpg
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:31 pm
@mr baseball: I hear ya. Sat Grandy (despite his decent record against Doc) in one league for Bay. Not working out so well thus far.
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
what is even worst for me the replacement was LIND
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@Wilsonian: Verlander is better than Cain.
@danimal35: Yup…
@mr baseball: Ha
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:38 pm
Has there been a more boring series all year than the Astros and Royals matchup?
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@Eddy: Maybe not, but Astros vs. everyone is pretty close 2nd.
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:45 pm
Possible trade. 12 team H2H non-keeper.
I sell Lincecum, Wagner, O-Cab.
I get Hanley, Qualls, Braden.
Is Ramirez worth that dropoff in pitching?? My other starters are Greinke, Hudson, Buchholz, Bonderman, Kuroda, Takahashi and Cueto. I’m not too concerned about the RP exchange. I have Axford and there’s other closers on the waivers (I know Qualls is losing his job).
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@hoju: I’d take Hanley there.
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June 15th, 2010 at 5:49 pm
Btw, I’m feelin’ Pavano’s mustache… and, could that be a soul patch beneath his lip? Pavano is starting to look like Frank Zappa.
To replace Billingsley, 2 different leagues (both h2h):
One: Carmona, CJ Wilson, Floyd, E Jax
Two: Carmona, Galarraga, Neise, Guthrie
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June 15th, 2010 at 6:12 pm
Argh – Both my DL slots are filled and I have nowhere to put Bills. Time to drop Aramis outright if I have Figgy to plug for the remainder of the season? Or, do I hold on for the fantasy goodness upon his return?
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June 15th, 2010 at 6:14 pm
@Grey:
will you say something
to make utley come “alive” ?
i’d appreciate that .
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June 15th, 2010 at 6:25 pm
Theriot or Brignac at SS?
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June 15th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
@Jif & The Choosy Mothers: I’d be interested in your league. Thanks!
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June 15th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
I just saw the news that Brian Roberts is out another 4-6 weeks.
What do y’all think: dump Roberts?
Am I the only one who’s held onto him?
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June 15th, 2010 at 7:01 pm
Posted in the forum, but there is no action over there:
I’m trading Carl Crawford in my 5×5 roto. Who should I get back?
1. Gallardo and Rasmus
2. Greinke and Abreu
3. Lester and Ludwick/Kubel/Pence (choose one)
Extra info: I currently have 1′s in ERA and WHIP and 2 in W. Otherwise, I think I could definitely compete for a top 3 spot and finishing in the money.
My #1 priority is to get back a keeper level SP. We keep 6-8 keepers per year, the only locks right now are Pujols, Longoria, McCutchen and Hanson along with probably Garza, maybe Zobrist, maybe Javy Vazquez if he continues his June pitching through Sept, and that’s really all (not counting Crawford, of course). What do we say?
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@peter: Stache isn’t bad at all. Wilson, Niese…
@Big Nate: Lose him.
@big o: I’ll do what I can.
@Big Nate: Theriot…
@EffenHooer: Lose him.
@Calogero: All the deals are fine. 1, 3 with Ludwick and 2, in that order.
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June 15th, 2010 at 7:36 pm
WTF has happened to Erv-San?
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@Steve: Ugh, that’s a terrible line.
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June 15th, 2010 at 7:42 pm
@Steve: Not sure, but I’m glad I sold high!
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June 15th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
@Steve: Oops, sorry. I added him to my team.
Just kidding. I’ve had him for a while. Not sure how much longer though.
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June 15th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
@Steve: It should be noted that I also recently sold high on both Hamilton and Filthy Sanchez. If this trend continues, you can fully expect them to crap the bed soon!
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June 15th, 2010 at 7:53 pm
My razzball homerun jinx continues.
I added Matt Tolbert Sunday and in his first game on my roster, he goes yard.
I know y’all don’t care about my homerun jinx updates but I’m going to continue to post them out of frustration!
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June 15th, 2010 at 8:00 pm
Maybe Ervin can really put the bow on this present and walk a bunch of guys.
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June 15th, 2010 at 8:03 pm
question on rasmus…so you’re using two comparative stats from last year, which was his first at age 23, he’s not yet 24, so I don’t think he’s established his numbers enough to say he’s going to regress with any certainty.
He’s a streaky hitter as I’ve noticed thus far this season, but power and speed seem for real. 30/25 is a generous prediction, but possible. However the K rate is worrisome, but when have we known Larussa to worry about a thing like that?
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June 15th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
@mauledbypandas: Nah – he’s really rolling now.
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June 15th, 2010 at 8:16 pm
Hey Grey, I know SAGNOF, but in my big keeper league we also count holds, so its much harder to jump on saves from waivers.
I’m considering my Smoak for his Aardsma. I’ve heard the Rangers are looking for a righty 1B and might platoon Smoak, plus Qualls is done as the closer in AZ it appears, and Heilman is rostered. Thoughts?
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June 15th, 2010 at 8:28 pm
Also, is it reasonable to drop Qualls at this point?
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June 15th, 2010 at 8:32 pm
@phil: I agree that due to Rasmus’ youth, there might not be a baseline to which you could convincingly contrast Rasmus’ current .375 BABIP, but, like Bautista, 6 of Rasmus’ HR this year were “Just Enoughs,” so I think it’s fair to expect a regression on the HR/FB at least. Due to his high K% and top-10 BABIP, I would bet on a regression in the AVG dept as well, but you are right that his relative youth reduces the power of that argument.
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@mauledbypandas: Ha
@phil: You make fair points. I’m just saying he doesn’t look like a 30 homer guy. He looks like a 20/20 guy, posing as a 30 homer guy. Hey Aaron Hill hit 35 homers last year and Bautista’s hit god knows how many this year, so anything’s possible. Nothing’s foolproof.
@dsimon: Smoak looks like he’s in trouble this year, but I don’t like that in a keeper. I wouldn’t drop Qualls either in a “big keeper league.”
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June 15th, 2010 at 8:47 pm
Adam Jones, never doubted him for a minute.
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June 15th, 2010 at 9:02 pm
@Donnie Baseball – He’s doing his best to stay on our rosters, isn’t he? I’ve been telling myself I’m going to drop him for weeks now but he is somehow sticking in my lineup…just so much upside. However, Judgment Day is approaching quickly with Nelson Cruz coming off the DL….
I recently grabbed Delmon Young and that guy looks like he’s finally breaking out…
Drop Delmon or Pacman?
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June 15th, 2010 at 9:14 pm
Pedro’s on his way:
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/pirates/s_686193.html
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June 15th, 2010 at 9:17 pm
Manny cleared waivers in my 12 tm roto. Should I care? My OF is JUpton, Grandy, Bruce, Pierre/Robot (bench).
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@Big Nate: Young
@Steve: Thanks for the heads up!
@Kazmere: Depends who you’re dropping for him, but it looks like your outfield is set.
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June 15th, 2010 at 9:34 pm
One more… I know the rule is Don’t carry more than 1 catcher. I had intended to trade Posada, but no one wanted him. I have Napoli too. After 2 grand slams I’m getting some interest. Before I move him, just wanted to get your thoughts on Napoli’s playing time once Mathis returns, not to mention if/when the Angels pick up a 1B (Konerko?).
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@Kazmere: Napoli may lose some playing time, nothing’s for sure there. Unless there’s no catchers on waivers though, I’d trade Posada anyway, assuming you get someone worthwhile. You’ll be fine with Napoli or someone else.
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June 15th, 2010 at 9:51 pm
Hernandez on for the save…
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@Steve: Yeah, because Samuel said it would be Simon. *shakes fist*
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June 15th, 2010 at 9:55 pm
@Grey: *Pumps fist* Still have him on a couple of teams, but dropped him in the RCL to grab Alvarez so won’t get this one.
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June 15th, 2010 at 10:33 pm
To add myself to the list of Rasmus Apologists, I’d like to present the following piece of evidence:
http://www.stltoday.com/stltoday/sports/stories.nsf/cardinals/story/8951D23E76D22474862577370008C070?OpenDocument
April BB:K Ratio – 17:22
May BB:K Ratio – 11:33
June BB:K Ratio – 4:6
Colby got the new lenses on June 1 and wore them to a game that night, where he went 3 for 5 with a homer, in the process creating the following ridiculous monthly splits
April OPS – 1.171
May OPS – .677 [the bad eyes/allergies month]
June OPS – 1.347
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June 15th, 2010 at 10:39 pm
I just got offered Utley and Markakis for D-Lee and Heyward. My other outfielders are Ethier, Pence, Soriano, and Cruz when he gets back. This is a no brainer right? J. Lopez is my 2B.
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June 15th, 2010 at 11:11 pm
I get that slumps happen, but aside from “The Machine” re-booting his software along with Rasmus getting hot, what the hell is going on with the Cardinals? It’s painful right now to own Matt Holliday, who we would normally expect to be dealing left and right.
I start him every game because, well, he’s Matt Holliday and you hope he snaps out of this. But it increasingly is pushing to me to think about benching him to start Hunter, Heyward, Granderson and Byrd instead.
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