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Some people will tell you Giancarlo Stanton‘s plate discipline has improved while in the majors and that his comps suggest further reduction in K% and growth in BB%.  Most will boast he’s one of a Lilliputian handful of players with a legitimate shot at 40+ HR and that he has room to improve on his power.  Many will point to the improved lineup around him as RBI and R opportunities waiting to sustain your fantasy team like mana (or homers) from heaven.  Some will note his career BABIP is high, but that it’s because he’s got plus speed for a 6-5, 235 pound hunk of beef and can chip in a few SBs.  While I’ve never seen a steak plow through a catcher or slide willingly onto my plate, I can tell you the majority of these people are right about Giancarlo Stanton.

What other people probably will NOT do, is SHOW you what Stanton can do and how freakin’ cool his shizz is. Haha! HA!  Sorry, I lost it for a second.  Below is a diagram of Giancarlo Stanton’s HRs from 2010 and 2011 based on data from hittrackeronline.com and park info from the interwebs. The Marlins Park walls are outlined, along with foul lines, distance tickers, the whole shebang… The light colored dots are dongs from 2010, the fully opaque dots 2011 bombs. The blue dots are away dingers, the red dots home, homers on the range in Sun Life Stadium, and the annoying little piggy on TV went “Wee, whee, whee!” all the way back into your memory. Wait for it…
Mike Stanton’s HR vs. Marlins Park
Ain’t that a pretty cupcake with little, patriotic jimmies on top? As I’ve commented before, the new Marlins Park is roughly comparable to Petco in physical dimension (read: BIG). I’ve not seen official documentation of the wall heights, but from the photos it sure looks like more than 8 feet, unless your tape uses Stanton feet. It appears to be mostly around a dozen human feet, but slopes up from the right side power alley to as high as 20. Where? Right out in the deepest part of center by the wacky, leaping Marlin homer sculpture. While we can’t be sure what effect the wind (or lack thereof) may have when the roof’s open (or closed), we can get a rough idea how he might have fared playing in this new park.

In 2010, there’s one that probably would have been an out to left in the new park. The others look like they should have been smooth sailing.  In 2011, we see one more likely out to left, while the duo to straight away center probably would’ve been doubles. Another pair are pretty close on the lower walls to left and right, but the rest are golden with no Teal Monster staring down left center.

All in all, he might’ve lost as many HRs as Antonio Alfonseca can count on one hand; a few doubled down and a few loud outs. He also pulled less in 2011, so that could be trouble for center field shots. But, and in Miami you’ll see lots of those, you’ll also notice the darker dots trend further out than the lighter ones. If the majority of these people and me are right about Giancarlo, I’m pretty certain we’ll get to see wacky, leaping marlins aplenty in 2012.

  1. Urine in the Clear, Ryan says:
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    I dream about Giancarlo in bed at night. I picture him on the cover of romance novels. I want to go on fishing trips with him to the mountains.

    I just know that when my draft happens next week, that whatever pick I make in round one, I won’t be able to resist him. I could see grabbing elite 1B or Longoria and then scooping him up in the second over Kinsler, Hanley, Reyes…. really you name it. But in mock draft after mock draft, I see him go in the high third round in 12 teamers.

    Oh Giancarlo, please won’t you wait for me? Why can’t I quit you (in the second round)?

    • Jake

      Jake says:
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      @Urine in the Clear, Ryan, Ha! If urine luck, you’ll get an early pick then pounce on him in the late 2nd.

      • Doug Ault says:
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        @Urine in the Clear, drop the “the”

        • Doug Ault says:
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          @Doug Ault, oops, I mean drop the “in”

    • TheNewGuy says:
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      @Urine in the Clear, Ryan, haha likin the name…

  2. chata says:
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    nice article .
    thank you , for that .

    also , great el pulpo reference ,
    or , as he is known , in my circle ,
    meester veinticinco !

    • Jake

      Jake says:
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      @chata, Thanks. Because El Pulpo was 25 during most of his first season?

      • chata says:
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        @Jake,
        total # of digits

        • Jake

          Jake says:
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          @chata, Wow, didn’t know he has 13 toes too. I’ll file that one away in the bag of number tricks.

          • chata says:
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            @Jake,

            will s-p-e-l-l it out for you … 12 fingers + 12 toes + ?
            = veinticinco .

            though , to be honest , am making an assumption on the “?” ,
            otherwise , I think we would have heard about THAT .

            • Jake

              Jake says:
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              @chata, Nice. Thanks for digitizing it for me.

  3. longbeachyo says:
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    So what you’re saying is… the purple pig flies at night???

    • Jake

      Jake says:
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      @longbeachyo, If that’s code for “Go ahead and draft ‘Sexy Stanton’ even if his prodigious park looks painful.”, then yes.

      • longbeachyo says:
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        @Jake, EXACTLY!
        But you’re supposed to say, “the fat man walks alone”

        I think we’re on the same page. But the whole changing name thing kinda scares me. I’d like to see some data from other famous athletes that have changed their names and how their numbers have fared in the first year… I’ll submit that question to fangraphs!

        • Jake

          Jake says:
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          @longbeachyo, I thought the fat man was with me.

  4. papasmurf says:
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    And how many shots did he hit high off the LF wall? Those would be homers in the new park with a lower fence.

    • Jake

      Jake says:
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      @papasmurf, No way to know for sure, but that’s a good point. If you look at the diagram someone posted here http://soflamarlins.com/showthread.php?t=466 you’ll see the new left field wall is further out than most of the Teal Monster was. High LDs toward the right end of the wall might have been gonezo in the new park, so yes, a few more leaping marlins added back in. It’s worth noting that his LD% was lower and his HR/FB was ludicrous high (51.4%) on pull shots. I’d speculate he tends to get more loft on those, though his GB% is higher on pull shots too. As long as he keeps pulling a good amount with solid contact he should be be fine. If not, he’s got some speed to leg out extra bags and his 6 3B were all to center/opposite.

  5. Wake Up says:
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    Don’t think Stanton puts up 2nd round numbers. Can’t say why, I just feel it in my mullet.

    • TheNewGuy says:
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      @Wake Up, Don’t wanna quash all this giancarlo-lovin, but i have to agree. Guys a HR monster but aint really much more than that yet in my eyes, 85 RBIs last year show he aint an RBI guy yet. I see him more of a higher AVG Adam Dunn in his prime but with RBIs…so really more a 3rd/4th round type.

      • Jake

        Jake says:
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        @TheNewGuy, Last year he hit mostly 6th behind a busted Hanley. Moving into the cleanup spot with Reyes in front of him shouldn’t hurt those counting stats. I think that ought to push him up to early 3rd in value.

    • Jake

      Jake says:
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      @Wake Up, My mullet doesn’t ache for him blindly in the 2nd round either. Was just saying Urine would be best served getting him there late if he’s dead set on it.

  6. jimbo says:
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    Couple injuries last year masked his true talent level imo. I’d suggest he was better than the stats showed. Look at his daily trends for slugging%. Having owned him all year, I could tell after both injuries when he finally seemed comfortable. (seemed he came back too early, but what do I know) Wouldn’t shock me at all to see him slug over 600.

    • Jake

      Jake says:
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      @jimbo, I experienced that as well and it could be more of the same this year, other than he ought to know better when to come back. A big man who likes to run a little is another good reason to hold off on him until the 3rd.

  7. jimbo says:
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    @Jake, he makes me wish my league was auction not snake. I’m at the end of the snake, so my options are giancarlo at 13 or a pipe dream at 36.

    If someone really felt he could reach 50 this year and wanted to build their team around that? I wouldn’t laugh at an early second round pick.

    Much as I like and ‘trust’ him, I’m gonna pass.

    • Jake

      Jake says:
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      @jimbo, Yup, 50 and early 2nd seem like stretches, just like him falling to 36 in most drafts.

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