Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

Hold on, Alabama Shakes. This title isn’t meant for you to run out and take a crowbar to an injured player’s knee. Instead, I’m handicapping injured players in terms of their value. In a way, this is an expansion upon an article I wrote about how Corey Hart compares to Allen Craig. I’ve heard people argue that you can’t predict injuries, so you should draft players with confidence who, though they have an extensive injury history, are currently healthy. To me, it doesn’t make sense to make that assumption, as if injuries have no lingering aftereffect or increase in chance of future injury. Just because we don’t know the full extent of something doesn’t mean we should ignore it. So, it’s worth building this potential risk into the price you pay or the round you draft that player. It is the same approach that you can use to value players who are currently injured. Does this sound controversial? Perfect, that means you’ve followed me so far. I’m going to use this approach to evaluate a few players. The goal of this post is to reduce the uncertainty of how injuries affect a player’s value, particularly in OPS leagues. Anyway, here’s how I value some of these players:

Hanley Ramirez – The toughest part of this exercise is estimating how much time an injured player will miss. I tend to use the high end estimate from reports, which is two months, or 1/3 of the season in this case. So if you draft Hanley, you’re going to need another shortstop to fill that time. If you’re in a 12 team league, let’s assume you can get the 19th best shortstop (assuming that 12 will be used at SS and 6 at MI), who is Andrelton Simmons according to Grey’s rankings. Steamer projects a .269/.342/.439 line for Hanley and a .274/.320/.387 line for Simmons. Using 2/3 Hanley and 1/3 Simmons (may or may not be taken from Hannibal’s cookbook) we calculate a .271/.335/.422 line. That looks an awful lot like Asdrubal Cabrera and it is reasonable to devalue Hanley close to Cabrera’s value. Does this make sense? Hopefully it’s not too complicated…

Troy Tulowitzki – This is probably the most controversial part, although nearly all projection systems do it to some extent. For players who are currently healthy but have an extensive injury history, I value them as if they will miss part of the season. To estimate how many games I project, I average their games played across the past three years. I’ll admit that three years is an arbitrary amount of time, but I believe it is reasonable because it does not overrate any recent injury without also dismissing it. For Tulo, this results in a projection of 104 games. Let’s call that 2/3 of the season and use Steamer’s .300/.373/.540 line for him, while again using Andrelton to fill in the remaining 1/3 season. The result is a .291/.355/.489 line, which is not easily comparable to another shortstop, but echoes Steamer’s Yoenis Cespedes projection. Depending on how you define and value position scarcity, I could see applying similar value to Tulo and Cespedes. I should also add that I’m using Steamer’s projections in an effort to be objective.

David Ortiz – These aren’t the only guys who matter, but I think each of them illustrates a great point. Is this a list of guys I’m going to avoid? Not exactly. I previously praised Ortiz and just drafted him in one of my Razzball Commenter Leagues. His line is so extraordinary, particularly in an OPS league, that he is valuable even if he only plays a partial season. He’s an interesting case because he was dealing with an injury this spring, but is supposed to be ready by the start of the season. I am going to use the same method I used for Tulo to project his games since I view him as a potential injury risk. Over the last three seasons he’s averaged 127 games. Let’s project him for 3/4 season and use Alfonso Soriano, Grey’s 66th ranked outfielder (assuming 60 OFs are drafted in 12 team league and some for Utility), as a replacement for the remaining 1/3 season. Using Steamer’s .279/.374/.508 line for Ortiz and .244/.301/.442 line for Soriano, we have a .270/.356/.492 projection. This is in Paul Goldschmidt and Jay Bruce territory (minus the steals unless we witness some miracles).

Jacoby Ellsbury – I couldn’t resist writing about him after seeing another fantasy baseball writer say that he expects Ellsbury to be healthy this year. That’s either wishful thinking or an irresponsible assertion. Regardless, I don’t think assuming Jacoby will play the full season is the appropriate way to value him considering that he’s only averaged 83 games over the past three seasons. Yes, if you go back before that, he used to play in full seasons so I wouldn’t argue much with estimating 2/3 of a season instead of a 1/2 season. Let’s again use Soriano for the remaining 1/3 season and Steamer’s .285/.338/.434 line for Ellsbury. This results in a .271/.326/.437 line, which looks like a slight step up from Angel Pagan in Steamer’s projections.

Some of this may seem obvious, but I hope that this provided you with a quick way to adjust your valuation of an injured player or a player with an extensive injury history. I recommend this process because it can be tweaked to fit your circumstance, while remaining fairly objective.

  1. AL KOHOLIC says:
    (link)

    cool,i have big pappi and was deciding wheather or not to hang on,its a 10 team league ,so i will keep him,thank you

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @AL KOHOLIC: No problem. Good luck!

  2. bob says:
    (link)

    oh yeah,whats your gut feeling for lorenzo cain and valdespins numbers this year?am i nuts to see a possible 20-20 from valdespin and 20-30 from cain

    • Cheese says:
      (link)

      @bob: why post using 2 different names? Weird…

      • Jay

        jaywrong says:
        (link)

        @Cheese: why post with a name that makes me want to eat you? Yummy…

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @jaywrong: This line could (and should) be used on any commenter.

          • Jay

            jaywrong says:
            (link)

            @Tom Jacks: concur!

      • DonSlaughtOnslaught says:
        (link)

        @Cheese: Al Koholic is the half of him that worries about old DH’s, bob the half that likes toolsy 5th outfielders. Common enough.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @DonSlaughtOnslaught: So one is re-draft league brain and the other is keeper? The yin and yang of fantasy baseball.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @bob: Yeah, i think each of those is very optimistic. I’d guess maybe 70% of those in each case.

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
      (link)

      @bob: I do not envision either happening. The 14-18 club for Valdespin would be good. 15-20 for Cain would be good. Those are my optimistic projections and I will look to draft one or both in my leagues.

      • AL KOHOLIC says:
        (link)

        @Wallpaper Paterson: im bob when im not drinking,hehe,trying to not let my numerous league mates onto my thinking,thanks for the thoughts

  3. kingforaday151 says:
    (link)

    Who’s more likely to reach 100 RBI, Ike Davis or Victor Martinez? I’m really not convinced the Mets are going to put up many runs with that lineup, but V-Mart has the age/injury/days off thing lingering over him.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @kingforaday151: I’d think V Mart due to the better lineup and higher batting average. He’ll be the dh for the most part so that should help preserve his ancient body. Davis could end up with 20 more homers though…

  4. PhillyYorker says:
    (link)

    That’s really great stuff. I think that methodology is understandable and produces relevant results. IIRC, Ortiz could only be slotted at Util in Yahoo last year. This year he’s a 1B. To me, that increases his value immensely. And I play in an OPS league, so we love us some Papi.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @PhillyYorker: Thanks! Yeah, if he qualifies at first, that really helps his value.

  5. guidedbyvoices says:
    (link)

    considering the lack of depth at 3B,how do you value Longo?….

    in a 12 team h2h dynasty league(R,H,RBI,XBH,BA,W,CG,K,ERA,WHIP),Im considering giving up Miggy for Longo and Gio.

    I know the only reason this guy is even considering it is Longo’s injury history.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @guidedbyvoices: I bump Longoria back to the third from the second round due to the injury risk. It’s a tempting offer, but I wouldn’t take it since Miggy is #1 in my view for that league.

  6. tyler says:
    (link)

    12 team, 5×5 roto (holds +NS, QS) and (OPS rather than BA and NS)

    slow auction draft, noticed that everyone seemed to be going stars and scrubs….does this than invalidate the approach, further, can you recommend a strategy to take advantage of everyone doing this?

    i ended up with a very blah-se team, stocking on value mehs

    we are working 24 starters, and have yet to enter the snake bench draft, biggest weakness obviously 3b and ss, was wondering who to target in the snake, everyone in the rankings is gone but Alvarez, should i get him round one or has spring shown any new names? also, other areas to address in snake draft? 1400IP cap, yahoo league.

    c McCann
    c salty
    1b i davis
    2b b phillips
    ss segura
    3b: middleton
    ci: adam laroche
    mi: uggla
    of:crawford
    of:heyward
    of:bruce
    of:ichiro
    Of:choo
    dh:N. Cruz
    p: c Lee
    p:m latos
    p:A. Sanchez
    p: Sherzer
    p:j lester
    p:Chapman
    p;league
    p:broxton
    p:estrada
    p: j. fernendez

    thoughts?
    thanks.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @tyler: If everybody is going stars and scrubs, then the stars go for way too much since they’re a limited supply. In that case, I’d try to get a lot of second tier guys, like you have with Heyward, Bruce, Choo, Lee, and Latos. I’d grab Alvarez. Maybe look for a late round high power guy, like Brandon Moss or Chris Carter. Also an upside speedster could be useful, like Leonys Martin or Andrelton Simmons. Do you have a DL spot? Maybe an upside pitcher like Beachy could help if somebody like that is out there.

      • tyler says:
        (link)

        thanks for the reply, 2 dl spots, but i think that crawford maybe be on the dl already boesch is out there, simmons and martin are not. bigger concern middlebrook or segura? also any word on fernendez this spring?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @tyler: I’d take Middlebrooks ahead of Segura. I think Fernandez was optioned to the minors.

  7. GTWMA says:
    (link)

    While an approach like this is an improvement, it’s too simple for more difficult leagues. You need to understand different projection systems before you make these adjustments. Some systems already take injury probabilities into account through their estimated playing time and regression/projection methodologies. Others do not. If you make additional adjustments to a system like Steamer (which already factors playing time and injury history into estimates), you are make a double adjustment that is not necessary.

    In addition, most estimates like this should not be based on rates or counts, but on standings points above replacement across all categories. If you account for ABs in your calculation of the rates as you do that, then you get a point value for each player that includes injury risk.

    • I do factor playing time and injury potential into my playing time estimates used for the Steamer Projections on this site. Will be updating that throughout the year. I will provide Games so it will be easier to adjust – adding in replacement only works for DL stints or daily change leagues with deep benches. But I do think injured player are undervalued at drafts – especially in unlimited DL leagues which is the case in our expert leagues (and my preference). I have hart on a couple teams as well as baker, luebke, and gambled on c-bills

      • Big AL says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble:
        Got a shout out for Rudy,who is on record flatly stating. “DO NOT DRAFT HAN RAM” Credit where credit do. Right on the money Rudy. Down goes HAN RAM almost on cue.
        Great article Tom got me thinking about where to draft someone like C. Hart in a upcoming draft. This makes good sense and help’s me put a reasonable value on some of these guys.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Big AL: Thanks! Glad it helps.

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: Thanks for the clarification, Rudy!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @GTWMA: Good points and I agree about needing to be careful. That’s why I looked at slash line instead of counting stats. It’s admittedly a simple approach. I don’t think I’m double counting in this case though because I’m assuming that, when healthy, the Steamer line is what they produce, while I am regressing the time I project them to miss. I believe it would be double counting for counting stats, but not slash line using this approach.

  8. Dileo says:
    (link)

    We get 2 free add/drops before the season. 12team points league. Only have Doubront as abench SP. I have the ability to cut loose Dirks, LoMo and Cozart (jeter insurance for now). And maybe Parnell (4th closer). Avail players are:

    Bats
    Carpenter (love the pos versatility)
    Carter (HOU)
    Starling Marte (set at OF, but love his potential)

    Arms
    Worley
    Kendrick
    Westbrook
    Wily peralta
    Lhose

    I know I plan on grabbing one arm, prob Kendrick. What’s my best bet with my second add/drop given the circumstances…..again, it’s a very pitching heavy league

    • Dileo says:
      (link)

      @Dileo: Smyly is also avail. I would bet he’s the 5th on DET, but is it worth chancing it?

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
        (link)

        @Dileo: I’d rank Kendrick ahead of Smyly.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Dileo: Hang onto Cozart. Dirks and LoMo can go for Kendrick and Marte. If you need a non-OF, then Carter or Carpenter would be fine too.

  9. Paddyman says:
    (link)

    Nice work Tom. However, the Ortiz evaluation seems very optimistic. Since both heels are bothering him and he hasn’t run yet, he won’t be ready to start to start the season. You’ve gotta wonder if it’s not some kind of arthritic/tendonitis condition that could easily hamper his whole season. This may be the year when he really starts to break down and I’d rather go with Konerko if it comes to a decision between the 2. I think this is a useful exercise though. What about Granderson, & Teixeira? What names do you think their shortened seasons would mirror? Also any thoughts on pitchers like Garza, Pineda, Beachy, Luebke? BTW of all the injured guys (eaton included) which one would you target to stash?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Paddyman: Thanks! Fortunately, Ortiz won’t have to play the field, but I agree that the potential is there for him to miss more than 1/4 season.

      I’m fairly down on those Yanks: http://razzball.com/does-curtis-granderson-have-teixeira-syndrome/

      I think Granderson might be similar to Reddick, which is both because I’m down on Grandy and somewhat optimistic on Reddick. Tex feels like a Carlos Pena type at this point, low batting average with homers. Sorry if you’re a Yankees fan…

      I’d rank those injured guys as: Beachy, Eaton, Luebke, Garza, Pinieda.

  10. Ralph says:
    (link)

    Followed the Pitcher APPLES strategy and ended up with…

    Jordan Zimmerman
    Jon Niese
    Mike Minor
    Mat Latos
    Homer Bailey
    Ryan Vogelsong
    AJ Griffin

    Relievers with Holds as a category…

    Tom Wilhelmsen
    Huston Street
    Mitchell Boggs
    Jake McGee
    Drew Storen

    Think pitching should be solid?
    Categories include standard ERA, WHIP, K’s, but add in HR’s Allowed, Wins-Losses, Appearances, Quality Starts, Saves and Holds for Relievers

    5 SP slots as well as 5 RP slots

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Ralph: How many teams in your league?

      • Ralph says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: for the record I’m not the same Ralph who accused you of reposting stuff. 12 teams in my league

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Ralph: Haha thanks! That looks fine to me for a 12 teamer.

  11. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    Speaking of injuries…what’s your guess on how long Motte will be out and how Boggs will do?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Wake Up: Not sure how long Motte will be out, but I’m guessing at least a month. Elbow injuries to pitchers scares the heck out of me. I like Boggs as a mid-level closer. He’s been a solid reliever the past couple years and I loved him in holds leagues last year.

  12. Slava says:
    (link)

    What about Granderson? I wound up drafting him with the 80th pick, ahead of Austin Jackson.

    What do you think?

    • Wake Up says:
      (link)

      @Slava: in a 12 team…I have Grandy in the 10/11th round…

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Slava: I agree with Wake Up. An overpay in my mind, but not terrible if you like him. I would’ve rather had Jackson though.

      • Slava says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: It’s a keeper (3 year limit) so that was the tie-breaker

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Slava: Ok, that changes things a bit. I’d view it as more of a toss up in that case.

  13. Ralph says:
    (link)

    So, just read baseball guys.com and post the identical thoughts on Hanley? Kind of weak.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Ralph: Honestly, I’ve never read that site. I mostly stick to Razzball… Thanks for accusing me though!

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: they said he’d be out for 1/3 of the season and you said he’d be out for 1/3 of the season…plagiarism!

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: I just looked at what you were referring to. Seems a bit different to me. The main similarity is we’re looking at Hanley, but who isn’t right now? I wrote the article a couple days ago. It doesn’t go up immediately…

        • Wake Up says:
          (link)

          @Tom Jacks: I was joking bro…everyone know’s he’ll be out for 1/3 of the season…

          • Tom Jacks

            Tom Jacks says:
            (link)

            @Wake Up: That last one was meant for Ralph. It’s tough trying to do this from a phone haha…

    • Gumby says:
      (link)

      @Ralph:
      Wow…look at that. lol. Weak indeed.

    • mauledbypandas says:
      (link)

      @Ralph: It’s not like this is a new concept… Hanley is probably the most high profile player to be hurt this spring so yeah.. every writer is talking about it.

      For all we know you are the guy who writes the poorly edited pieces on that website. How’s that for accusation?

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
        (link)

        @mauledbypandas: He’s just been mauled by pandas.

  14. Chris says:
    (link)

    When should I expect players to become DL eligible, like Hanley and Ryan Madson? March 31?

    I’m waiting to pick up some lingering talent on the free agent wire but I don’t want to wait too long.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Yeah, I’d think then at the latest.

  15. In a 14 team mixed, redraft 6×6 (ops, holds) league — have the 8th pick

    assuming the tier 1 1b, Cutch, Cano are gone – would you consider taking Longoria at #8 overall? There are 4 guys Im considering there: J.Upton, CaGo, Stanton and Longoria.

    Given the lack of quality depth at 3B, and a potential Top 5 year a healthy Longo could have, I’m starting to like this thought. That way I can likely still get a decent OF on way back at pick #21 in 2nd round (Adam Jones, etc).

    My feeling is if I go OF, I’m likely stuck with a MI or lower end 1B – Gonzo or Goldie.

    Thoughts on draft Longo early strategy? Thx

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @El Burro: I wouldn’t take Longoria in the first round. If you’ve got the 8th pick, couldn’t you get the remaining one of: Miggy, Braun, Trout, Votto, Cano, Cutch, Fielder, Pujols?

      • @Tom Jacks:

        I’m assuming Kemp slips in favor of those 1b. If that happens, I’m passing – would rather have Cargo or J.Upton in lieu of Kemp

        I think it’s early on Longo, but no way he’s there at 21. Hence my quandary…I have no problem going OF/ 1b — but I just really want Lo

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @El Burro: I didn’t list Kemp though. Shouldn’t one of those eight fall to you?

          I’d rather have Cargo/Upton over Kemp too. It’s your team though – if you really believe in Longo, go for it. I would grab one of those other guys instead of him and hope he falls.

  16. Boomer19 says:
    (link)

    Thoughts on some SP stashes…who do you like for bench stashes out of of Santana, Beachy, Luebke, etc. Worth a spot? Two spots? I’m in a 13 team mixed 5×5 roto league with standard cats. Anyone else on your injured pitcher radar? Thanks.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Boomer19: Those are the biggest names, I think. I’d absolutely grab Beachy and Luebke, in that order.

      • Boomer19 says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks:

        Better than free agents like Masterson, Gee, Nova? I’m guessing yes.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @Boomer19: Yeah, they’re got upside. Those free agents will be back on the waiver at some point.

  17. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Breaking trade offer occurence! This is back to my keeper league, id been hunting a 3B and have reeled one in, though theres a caveat (if this is the correct use of caveat, sounds like caviar) to it.

    Trade:
    C Santana ($8) and M Moustakas ($6) FOR: D Wright ($38)

    Now I’m trading away my catcher excess (due to autodraft) as I have Yadi too so that part seems great, and im upgrading from Moose to Wright (no brainer). BUT the problem is this, Wrights salary. He crazily gave Wright a 3 year $38 contract, and theres still 2 years left on it. If I cut Wright at the end of the year and noone claims him then i pay a penalty of half ($19) for the broken contract. So it seems like this is an “all in this year” type of deal, ideal for me this year, but not next. I could maybe try and be really clever and cut Wright with a few days of the season to go, to hope someone claims him and takes on the contract.

    Question is is (stutterer!) it worth the risk?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @TheNewGuy: I’d pass on that trade. The contract feels too risky for me. I’d take it if it was a re-draft league, but not here. Wright idea though…

      • TheNewGuy says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: Yeah I mean in terms of keeper value, Santana and Moose would cost more to keep next year due to inflation, thats how it works in our league.

        If you couldnt get any other offers fitting this need (trading away an excess C to greatly improve at 3B), would you be tempted to take it? I have Yadi at my Util currently this year…hardly ideal.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @TheNewGuy: Yeah, I probably would take it if there’s nothing better, considering that those guys would cost more in future years. Maybe you could get a better deal for a “lesser” 3B?

          • TheNewGuy says:
            (link)

            @Tom Jacks: Yeah im trying the same deal for Longo (much cheaper price at $26 and keepable). But if I get refused them im gonna take it, I got offered the same deal for A-Ram earlier…no way was I gonna do that.

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
              (link)

              @TheNewGuy: That sounds like a good plan.

          • TheNewGuy says:
            (link)

            @Tom Jacks: Would you consider an upgrade at 2B to be a better deal for this season and long-term?

            C Santana ($8) and Altuve ($8) for Pedroia ($28)

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
              (link)

              @TheNewGuy: I’d take that before the Wright deal.

  18. Blue says:
    (link)

    You’re overthinking this: let injured players be Someone Else’s Problem.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Blue: Haha that’s one approach

  19. royce! says:
    (link)

    Great post, but it does make me wonder how much damage clogging up a DL spot can do to a team. In the RCl, we only get one DL spot, so if I were to draft Granderson and someone else on my team were to get hurt, I’d have to drop that player or Granderson or use a bench spot until one came back. I have no idea how to value a DL spot, but I think that having to use it should further reduce the value of drafting an already DL’d player.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @royce!: Good point. I’m going to think about that a little more. Maybe each additional DL/bench spot reduces the injury risk of a player by x%…

      I wouldn’t stockpile injured guys in the RCL, but I do like Hart quite a bit, especially considering his draft position.

  20. MessyF says:
    (link)

    Thanks for the write-up Tom. As a Dodger fan I’m none too pleased but at least he’ll be back at some point to help.

    A couple questions:
    - Do you think Jordany stays in the lineup when murph/wright come back?
    - Who are your fav relievers not currently in a closing position?

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
      (link)

      @MessyF: Depends on how he hits. Collins has said Valdespin will be the leadoff hitter to start. I suppose if he plays really well he will remain a regular even when Murphy comes back. Maybe Valdespin would stay at 2B or be moved to the outfield. Valdespin will not play 3rd, so Wright’s situation should not effect Valdespin too much.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @MessyF: Thanks! I agree with Wallpaper. I like Gregerson and Clippard.

  21. T Moore says:
    (link)

    2 factors must be added to the injured players

    Let’s take a H Ram for example…

    The first and a positive… You get to combine his numbers with others taking their spot in that slot

    Let’s say you run an amalgam of others for 2 that months who do well with 180 ABs/ 265 BA/ 7 HR/ 27 Runs/ 7 SBs… Not saying ,you would do that well – But you might riding hot streaks.. Those are added to H Rams roster slot… H Ram spot has not suffered that much if at all — If you do well..

    The 2nd is in 2 parts and the Down Sides of drafting an injured player Part A) You tie up a DL slot (and most likely a bench slot for that long of haul as others will surely be DLed on your team)… Part B) The player may not hit as his normal self upon returning??? (Hand and forearm injuries are the worst)

    Drafting more than one DLed player in ESPN would seem awfully risky where you only have 1 DL slot and 3 bench slots….

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @T Moore: You are correct on those potential downsides. I wouldn’t draft more injured players than the number of DL spots unless the bench was huge.

  22. Scott says:
    (link)

    I am in a 12-team league- H2H, standard scoring, although stolen bases are worth 4 points. In an extended draft, I drafted Hanley in the 4th, before learning of his injury in about the 7th round of our draft. I drafted Adam Jones in the 5th. I have an offer on the table of HanRam and AdJones for Wainwright and Alex Gordon. I also drafted Lawrie and Rollins to cover me at 3B/SS.

    I need starting pitching, because I only have Lincecum, Zimmerman, Homer Bailey, and AJ Burnett in the stable. We get a guaranteed 6 starts every week, so this deal seems like a no-brainer to me. But do I hold out because Adam Jones is going to raise the bar even more this year and hope that HanRam returns clean from injury? At this point, I think I have convinced myself of the deal, but I wanted to elicit an outside opinion. Thanks.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Scott: On the surface, I’d want a little more. Considering your pitching though, I’d do it.

  23. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Would you consider an upgrade at 2B to be a better deal for this season and long-term?

    C Santana ($8) and Altuve ($8) for Pedroia ($28)

    • Wallpaper Paterson says:
      (link)

      @TheNewGuy: I would rather have Santana and Altuve.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @TheNewGuy: I’d take that deal before the Wright one.

  24. ADP says:
    (link)

    Great article. How far back are you bumping Chase Headley? And Sandoval (elbow)?

    • ADP says:
      (link)

      @ADP: and Motte

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
        (link)

        @ADP: Elbow problems scare me with pitchers. I’m bumping Motte from a top closer to someone I’d take after the first half of them are gone.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @ADP: Thanks! I’m looking at those guys around pick 100.

  25. harkrider says:
    (link)

    drafting tonight in a 10 team 5×5 keeper league with positions
    1B,2B,SS,3B,4OF’S,2 UTIL SPOTS, 2 SP, 2 RP, 3 P, 6 BENCH

    My 5 keepers = Pujols, Votto, Castro, Heyward, and Bruce,

    I draft 7th and here are the players available that I am considering. Any help would be appreciated.

    Goldschmidt, Ryan Zimmerman, Choo, Lawrie, Jennings, Sandoval as hitter options

    Grienke, Bumgarner, or Scherzer as SP options

    If all these are still available (which I doubt they will be) which 2 should I take (round 6 &7)? Should I consider waiting on a SP until round 8 and taking 2 hitters? We have 1 player who kept 3 SP’s and most kept 2 SP’s, does that change anything?

    If available my top options right now are Goldy, Zimmerman, Grienke, and Bumgarner. At least how I see it. Thoughts?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @harkrider: Love your keepers. I’d rank your top options in that order and add Choo, so: Goldy, Zimmerman, Grienke, Bumgarner, Choo. Just take the top guy available from that group, regardless or whether it’s a hitter or pitcher. Good luck!

      • harkrider says:
        (link)

        @Tom Jacks: I got Goldy and then Grienke on the turn. thanks!! Zimmerman went 2nd and then Bumgarner between my Goldy and Grienke picks.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
          (link)

          @harkrider: Awesome! Glad to see it worked out. With those as a top 2 and your 5 keepers, you should have a fantastic shot this year…

          • Harkrider says:
            (link)

            @Tom Jacks: my team

            C Perez
            1B Votto
            2B Espinosa
            SS Castro
            3B Keppinger
            OF Bruce, Heyward, Beltran, Gordon
            UTIL pujols, goldy
            Bench Rutledge, Bonifacio, Aoki

            SP grienke, Scherzer, Parker, samardzija, minor
            RP romo, wilhelmsen, Marmol, clippard, holland

            My biggest hole is 3B. Will I be ok with Keppinger, or should I look to trade? I figure ill add SB’s throughout the season.

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
              (link)

              @Harkrider: I’d look to upgrade 3B since it’s a 10 teamer. Maybe there’s still somebody decent on the waiver wire like Seager?

              • harkrider says:
                (link)

                @Tom Jacks: I was going to take Seager, but he was taken right before me. Michael Young and Dominic Brown are on the waiver wire though, thoughts?

                • Tom Jacks

                  Tom Jacks says:
                  (link)

                  @harkrider: Brown is nice, but not worth dropping any of your guys at this point in my mind. I don’t like Young. Since you have Rutledge on the bench, maybe you could use your MI depth to upgrade 3B?

  26. Not sure you are around OPS Tom, but I’m getting ready to draft my 7×7 league soon, have both OPS and Total Bases as cats. Got the 6th pick, I;m thinking Albert or Votto, and ideally Stanton r2 (its a 10 teamer)

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
      (link)

      @Elijah: Somewhat here! That sounds great to me. I prefer Votto slightly to Pujols, and Stanton could fall to you in the second round.

Comments are closed.