Comments on: Granderson’s Injured, Now Deal

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 17:09:42 +0000

Well, let’s look at the projections. I am going to use ZIPS for the projections as it’s free (you can see them on fangraphs.com). This is pre-injury:

Granderson: 104/21/87/14/.278
Markakis: 90/24/98/10/.294

It’s a fair argument that Granderson could steal more than this (he had 26 last year) but he also isn’t a great lock for 87 RBIs either.

I think if you’re a Granderson fan, you can make the case he’s the more valuable player. My money is on Markakis…

By: SportsHubris

SportsHubris — Tue, 25 Mar 2008 15:53:00 +0000

For 5X5 purposes I think you guys are vastly underrating Granderson. I mean Markakis would probably be a better option if he was on the Tigers, but in the context of that Oriole’s lineup I’d expect better numbers from Granderson. The injury does suck though.

SportsHubris’s last blog post..If You Don’t Know Rondo

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 23:19:52 +0000

in that case, i’d definitely trade damon/hughes for granderson.

doubt they’ll take it, though…

By: alex

alex — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 21:44:23 +0000

Agreed on the 4th/5th starter … currently Hughes is positioned 6th starter behind Lincecum, Hernandez, Vazquez, Sheilds and Pedro Martinez … so a WW pickup might be very feasible to replace Hughes.

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 21:33:25 +0000

Damon OR Phil Hughes for Granderson? that’s a no-brainer. Both Damon and Hughes are poised for negative Point Share (below drafted position average) while Granderson is above average. figure you could alway find another 4th/5th starter on free agency…

Damon and Philip Hughes for Granderson would be a tougher call but one that I’d definitely consider, especially if I had good pitching depth. Yeah, it could backfire if Damon rebounds to 20 HR/25 SB and Hughes has a breakthrough 15 W / 175K season but sometimes you got to take chances…

By: alex

alex — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 21:20:33 +0000

So how would you feel trading away Damon or Phil Hughes for Granderson? Or are Damon/Hughes still too high in value for Granderson? Should I be thinking more in the Felix Pie range??

By: Grey

Grey — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 21:04:26 +0000

As I would say to a non-functioning snack machine, “No, you’re out of order!”

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:56:22 +0000

note: that was supposed to be an 8 with a ) for sizemore but it got converted to a smiley face.

even wordpress is gay for sizemore…

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:55:00 +0000

Man, I SO want to disagree with Grey right now because his position on Granderson feels like a full of crap gut call.

But in this case, his gut is proved out by the Point Shares estimates.

Here are the rankings among OF in 10 team MLB leagues based on my Point Shares:

1) Matt Holliday - 6.51 point shares
2) Carlos Lee - 3.84
3) Alfonso Soriano - 3.48
4) Vlad Guerrero - 3.07
5) Lance Berkman - 2.76
6) Carl Crawford - 2.73
7) Carlos Beltran - 2.51
Grady Sizemore - 2.39
9) Adam Dunn - 1.99
10) Corey Hart - 1.87
11) Nick Markakis - 1.57
12) Alex Rios - 1.44
13) Magglio Ordonez - 1.4
14) Torii Hunter - 1.09
15) Bobby Abreu - 0.94
16) Hunter Pence - 0.76
17) Curtis Granderson - 0.63

Given his upside potential, I wouldn’t have any issues taking him ahead of Bobby Abreu but you can’t argue that case against Hart, Rios, or Markakis.

The K rate that Grey mentions has a direct impact on batting average which is his least valuable category (-0.5). Runs and SB are positive and HR/RBI are about average.

The reason why Granderson is overrated - in short - is that he’s not that great at stealing bases to compensate for so-so HR/RBI. If Granderson improved to 40, he’d be near Carl Crawford in value…

By: Baseball News Aggregator » Granderson’s Injured, Now Deal

Baseball News Aggregator » Granderson’s Injured, Now Deal — Mon, 24 Mar 2008 20:33:58 +0000

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