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Frankly, I don’t want to waste too much space with this topic. I told readers since January to avoid Granderson and as recently as two weeks ago that you can get greater safety and value with Abreu. I’m not claiming to be Nostra-dumbass and saying I saw Grandy about to be beaned by some crap Phillie pitcher (and, besides Hamels and Myers, they’re all crap). Grandy strikeouts out too much; this is well documented on this site and others. But when I say ‘Granderson’s injured, now deal,’ I don’t mean trade him away. I mean emotionally deal. Boo-freakin-woo, you were the one that drafted him in the third round when you should’ve been grabbing Rios or Markakis. What you should not do…

Trade away Granderson. You’ll never get full value for him right now. Will his hand heal properly? Well, he struck out in the boatloads before, I can’t see an injury to his hand helping, but his speed will still be there when he returns. I see no reason why you still can’ get 17/30. Was it what you were expecting? Maybe not, but it should’ve been closer to what you were expecting. If anything, it’s a buyer’s market. See if the Grandy owner in your league will give you him for Marmol and Accardo or some other trade where you’re treating the Grandy owner like some pig-tailed girl. That’s right; now is the time to buy low on Granderson or wait out this setback.

  1. I took your advice but still managed to get Grandy in one of my leagues. He fell to the 4th round, so I drafted him as trade bait. About an hour after the draft I dealt him and Kouzmanoff for David Wright. Nothing better then underpaying for David Wright in a keeper.

    I am with you. I definitely like Markakis, Rios and even Corey Hart over Granderson this year. Victorino is a better value as well several rounds later.

    Herb Urban’s last blog post..The Brucegasm ™ commeth!

  2. Grey

    Grey says:
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    “…I definitely like Markakis, Rios and even Corey Hart over Granderson this year. Victorino is a better value as well several rounds later.” Yup, and great trade.

  3. Pingback: Baseball News Aggregator » Granderson’s Injured, Now Deal

  4. Man, I SO want to disagree with Grey right now because his position on Granderson feels like a full of crap gut call.

    But in this case, his gut is proved out by the Point Shares estimates.

    Here are the rankings among OF in 10 team MLB leagues based on my Point Shares:

    1) Matt Holliday – 6.51 point shares
    2) Carlos Lee – 3.84
    3) Alfonso Soriano – 3.48
    4) Vlad Guerrero – 3.07
    5) Lance Berkman – 2.76
    6) Carl Crawford – 2.73
    7) Carlos Beltran – 2.51
    8) Grady Sizemore – 2.39
    9) Adam Dunn – 1.99
    10) Corey Hart – 1.87
    11) Nick Markakis – 1.57
    12) Alex Rios – 1.44
    13) Magglio Ordonez – 1.4
    14) Torii Hunter – 1.09
    15) Bobby Abreu – 0.94
    16) Hunter Pence – 0.76
    17) Curtis Granderson – 0.63

    Given his upside potential, I wouldn’t have any issues taking him ahead of Bobby Abreu but you can’t argue that case against Hart, Rios, or Markakis.

    The K rate that Grey mentions has a direct impact on batting average which is his least valuable category (-0.5). Runs and SB are positive and HR/RBI are about average.

    The reason why Granderson is overrated – in short – is that he’s not that great at stealing bases to compensate for so-so HR/RBI. If Granderson improved to 40, he’d be near Carl Crawford in value…

  5. note: that was supposed to be an 8 with a ) for sizemore but it got converted to a smiley face.

    even wordpress is gay for sizemore…

  6. Grey

    Grey says:
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    As I would say to a non-functioning snack machine, “No, you’re out of order!”

  7. alex says:
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    So how would you feel trading away Damon or Phil Hughes for Granderson? Or are Damon/Hughes still too high in value for Granderson? Should I be thinking more in the Felix Pie range??

  8. Damon OR Phil Hughes for Granderson? that’s a no-brainer. Both Damon and Hughes are poised for negative Point Share (below drafted position average) while Granderson is above average. figure you could alway find another 4th/5th starter on free agency…

    Damon and Philip Hughes for Granderson would be a tougher call but one that I’d definitely consider, especially if I had good pitching depth. Yeah, it could backfire if Damon rebounds to 20 HR/25 SB and Hughes has a breakthrough 15 W / 175K season but sometimes you got to take chances…

  9. alex says:
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    Agreed on the 4th/5th starter … currently Hughes is positioned 6th starter behind Lincecum, Hernandez, Vazquez, Sheilds and Pedro Martinez … so a WW pickup might be very feasible to replace Hughes.

  10. in that case, i’d definitely trade damon/hughes for granderson.

    doubt they’ll take it, though…

  11. For 5X5 purposes I think you guys are vastly underrating Granderson. I mean Markakis would probably be a better option if he was on the Tigers, but in the context of that Oriole’s lineup I’d expect better numbers from Granderson. The injury does suck though.

    SportsHubris’s last blog post..If You Don’t Know Rondo

  12. Well, let’s look at the projections. I am going to use ZIPS for the projections as it’s free (you can see them on fangraphs.com). This is pre-injury:

    Granderson: 104/21/87/14/.278
    Markakis: 90/24/98/10/.294

    It’s a fair argument that Granderson could steal more than this (he had 26 last year) but he also isn’t a great lock for 87 RBIs either.

    I think if you’re a Granderson fan, you can make the case he’s the more valuable player. My money is on Markakis…

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