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Let’s look at some potential homerun decliners based on the following “Power Score” or expected homerun (xHR) formula and compare it to their actual homerun totals. Here is the formula:

Plate Appearances(PA)*Contact Rate(Ct%)*Outfield flyball rate(OFFB%)*Homerun per Outfield Flyball ratio(HR/OFFB).

Make sense? Sure it does: How many homeruns does a player hit per outfield flyball? How much of their contact results in an outfield flyball? How much overall contact does a batter make when swinging the bat in a plate appearance? This should provide us with an expected HR total.

The below lists are ranked by the largest actual HR-expected HR differentials. Their HR related performance (PA, Ct, OFFB, HR/OFFB) is listed along with their average homerun and flyball average distance and rank.

Two contingencies worth noting at this time: 1) Our samples size still isn’t huge and 2) We’re not taking into account platoon hitters, i.e. Scott Van Slyke as a right-hand hitter only raking against left-hand pitchers. So when I extrapolate the data, keep this in mind. In other words, if Scott Van Slyke consumed more playing time against right-hand pitchers, there’s a good chance his performance/power would drop off.

Here are the top potential HR decliners (I think you will see the value of this xHR comp immediately):

(Stats courtesy of FG and up to date as of 7/4):

Rnk xHR Differential Hrdiff PA Ct% OFFB% HR/OFFB xHR HR Dist(ft) Dist.Rnk
1 Albert Pujols 5.34 364 84.8% 20.0% 18.9% 11.7 17 279.6 136th
2 Alexei Ramirez 4.55 350 84.9% 10.6% 11.0% 3.5 8 264.3 227th
3 Justin Morneau 4.51 325 85.0% 18.2% 16.9% 8.5 13 284.3 105th
4 Adam Jones 4.03 368 78.0% 23.2% 18.0% 12.0 16 293.2 41st
5 Mark Reynolds 3.82 280 66.4% 20.5% 24.1% 9.2 13 301.1 20th
6 Charlie Blackmon 3.34 347 88.2% 19.8% 14.3% 8.7 12 272.0 192nd
7 Brett Lawrie 3.31 281 81.9% 21.4% 17.6% 8.7 12 277.4 152nd
8 Erick Aybar 3.12 345 89.7% 10.7% 8.7% 2.9 6 267.7 208th
9 Salvador Perez 3.01 307 87.5% 19.0% 13.7% 7.0 10 281.0 123rd
10 Hunter Pence 2.99 373 77.9% 19.3% 14.3% 8.0 11 288.7 74th
11 Dayan Viciedo 2.62 326 76.6% 19.3% 13.2% 6.4 9 287.7 82nd
12 Nelson Cruz 2.52 359 74.4% 32.8% 26.8% 23.5 26 302.2 14th
13 Ian Desmond 2.46 347 70.1% 24.4% 21.1% 12.5 15 299.9 27th
14 Jose Bautista 2.42 351 81.8% 23.3% 21.8% 14.6 17 283.9 106th
15 Brandon Phillips 2.42 335 78.0% 18.8% 9.3% 4.6 7 280.3 129th
16 Jose Abreu 2.29 308 72.2% 28.3% 37.7% 23.7 26 312.8 3rd
17 Melky Cabrera 2.29 386 87.2% 19.3% 13.4% 8.7 11 256.4 261st
18 Giancarlo Stanton 2.22 373 70.3% 26.6% 26.9% 18.8 21 302.5 13th
19 Pablo Sandoval 2.08 336 82.2% 24.1% 11.9% 7.9 10 272.5 190th
20 Michael Morse 2.00 300 75.9% 22.3% 21.7% 11.0 13 311.8 4th

…Alexei and Blackmon? Obviously. Pujols? Yup. He is a big-time sell candidate to me. I posted on it earlier this season, but it’s even more clear now as his balls in play data (gross groundball and popup rates killing his BABIP/Average) is stabilizing. Sell! Abreu and Stanton on the other hand are monsters. We’ll get to them in a minute.

Here are the top potential HR improvers (again, I don’t see many surprises, but it’s pretty darn sweet we see Mike Trout #1 overall!):

Rnk xHR Differential Hrdiff PA Ct% OFFB% HR/OFFB xHR HR Dist(ft) Dist.Rnk
165 Mike Trout -4.47 362 80.7% 40.6% 19.8% 23.5 19 293.87 40th
164 Adam Dunn -4.10 289 70.9% 41.9% 18.8% 16.1 12 292.37 48th
163 Anthony Rizzo -3.05 357 80.5% 35.3% 19.8% 20.1 17 286.90 88th
162 Shin-Soo Choo -2.36 342 80.0% 30.3% 12.5% 10.4 8 289.55 64th
161 Kyle Seager -1.74 339 83.2% 38.6% 13.5% 14.7 13 277.13 154th
160 Adam LaRoche -1.74 282 81.9% 35.2% 16.9% 13.7 12 288.93 69th
159 David Ortiz -1.73 353 82.7% 38.5% 18.4% 20.7 19 298.25 31st
158 Paul Goldschmidt -1.70 381 76.1% 28.8% 20.0% 16.7 15 316.28 2nd
157 Christian Yelich -1.67 306 83.1% 19.6% 15.4% 7.7 6 287.79 81st
156 Chris Davis -1.41 299 67.4% 33.0% 21.7% 14.4 13 304.63 7th
155 Joey Votto -1.38 264 81.8% 30.2% 11.3% 7.4 6 310.22 6th
154 Freddie Freeman -1.33 377 78.3% 33.6% 14.4% 14.3 13 291.92 51st
153 Seth Smith -1.32 281 80.6% 31.9% 14.3% 10.3 9 285.75 93rd
152 Mike Zunino -1.30 265 66.3% 44.8% 16.9% 13.3 12 283.12 112th
151 Carlos Santana -1.26 320 80.0% 27.2% 19.0% 13.3 12 277.68 151st
150 Dexter Fowler -1.15 334 79.7% 30.0% 9.0% 7.2 6 283.34 110th
149 Ryan Howard -1.05 357 67.8% 37.3% 16.7% 15.0 14 289.31 65th
148 Garrett Jones -0.99 320 79.9% 37.4% 11.5% 11.0 10 277.77 150th
147 Mike Napoli -0.92 282 74.7% 28.5% 18.2% 10.9 10 310.67 5th
146 Matt Carpenter -0.83 384 89.5% 31.3% 4.5% 4.8 4 266.68 212th

Seager is starting to heat up, Rizzo is a young masher and we see a sundry of others that should become more impressive this year: Goldy, Crush Davis and Joey Votto. I am very happy to see Freeman here as well. Slow starters Carlos Santana and Matt Capenter aren’t surprising to see as well, however we need to look another factor: batted ball distance.

Another way we should be verifying this overall list is by using Baseball Heatmap’s Homerun and Flyball Average Distance Leaderboard. Let’s look at the Avg. HR & FB distance (distance and rank in last two columns above) in relation to their HR/FB ratios for the Top20 potential decliners and Top20 potential improvers above.

Decliners:

Verifying their “decliner” status, Pujols, Alexei and Blackmon are sure to drop-off from a HR-perspective based on their average distance. While monsters Abreu and Morse are on this list, their average distance should ensure great HR totals.

Improvers:

While Seager. Santana and Carpenter are likely to regress positively in the HR department, it still won’t be a huge jump/total based on their average distance. On the other hand, there’s a great chance we see rebounds from Napoli, Votto and Davis based on their expected HR totals in conjunction with their average distance.

*Now the fun part! What if everyone had 375 PA (and as I mentioned earlier, continued at their current pace exclusive of platoon effects and park factors for that matter)? Here are the top50 expected HR totals based solely on PA=375*Ct%*OFFB%* HR/OFFB:

xHR Differential exHR Hrdiff ePA Ct% OFFB% HR/OFFB xHR HR
Jose Abreu 28.9 2.3 375 72.2% 28.3% 37.7% 23.7 26
Devin Mesoraco 28.8 0.2 375 74.0% 36.0% 28.8% 14.8 15
Edwin Encarnacion 26.4 0.1 375 82.1% 38.2% 22.4% 25.9 26
Scott Van Slyke 24.9 -1.9 375 75.9% 41.3% 21.2% 8.9 7
Juan Francisco 24.6 -0.3 375 66.3% 30.4% 32.5% 13.3 13
Nelson Cruz 24.5 2.5 375 74.4% 32.8% 26.8% 23.5 26
Mike Trout 24.3 -4.5 375 80.7% 40.6% 19.8% 23.5 19
Mike Olt 24.1 -1.1 375 66.5% 37.8% 25.6% 12.1 11
Victor Martinez 23.5 -0.1 375 92.6% 34.8% 19.4% 21.1 21
Evan Gattis 23.2 1.0 375 73.7% 38.3% 21.9% 15.0 16
J.D. Martinez 22.8 -0.1 375 75.0% 35.7% 22.7% 10.1 10
Colby Rasmus 22.6 0.2 375 69.0% 37.1% 23.5% 11.8 12
Sean Rodriguez 22.4 0.1 375 73.1% 34.7% 23.5% 7.9 8
Mark Teixeira 22.1 -0.4 375 80.9% 29.1% 25.0% 15.4 15
David Ortiz 22.0 -1.7 375 82.7% 38.5% 18.4% 20.7 19
Brandon Moss 22.0 -0.7 375 74.4% 40.7% 19.4% 19.7 19
Steve Pearce 21.4 0.1 375 76.2% 39.7% 18.9% 9.9 10
Anthony Rizzo 21.1 -3.1 375 80.5% 35.3% 19.8% 20.1 17
Adam Dunn 20.9 -4.1 375 70.9% 41.9% 18.8% 16.1 12
George Springer 20.1 -0.2 375 61.0% 34.1% 25.8% 16.2 16
Brandon Belt 19.9 1.6 375 69.5% 27.2% 28.1% 7.4 9
Troy Tulowitzki 19.6 0.3 375 82.3% 29.3% 21.7% 17.7 18
Giancarlo Stanton 18.9 2.2 375 70.3% 26.6% 26.9% 18.8 21
Mike Zunino 18.8 -1.3 375 66.3% 44.8% 16.9% 13.3 12
Justin Upton 18.8 -0.5 375 72.3% 33.3% 20.8% 16.5 16
Adam LaRoche 18.3 -1.7 375 81.9% 35.2% 16.9% 13.7 12
Josh Donaldson 18.2 0.0 375 77.0% 32.3% 19.6% 18.0 18
Chris Davis 18.1 -1.4 375 67.4% 33.0% 21.7% 14.4 13
Josh Willingham 17.9 -0.7 375 73.4% 39.1% 16.7% 7.7 7
Todd Frazier 17.3 0.7 375 74.7% 32.3% 19.1% 16.3 17
Khris Davis 17.0 -0.4 375 71.5% 37.5% 16.9% 14.4 14
Chris Carter 16.9 0.8 375 64.7% 36.5% 19.1% 12.2 13
Marlon Byrd 16.9 0.3 375 72.0% 35.6% 17.6% 15.7 16
Paul Goldschmidt 16.4 -1.7 375 76.1% 28.8% 20.0% 16.7 15
Kyle Seager 16.3 -1.7 375 83.2% 38.6% 13.5% 14.7 13
Lucas Duda 16.2 -0.4 375 75.4% 40.2% 14.3% 12.4 12
Aramis Ramirez 16.1 0.7 375 78.2% 39.9% 13.8% 10.3 11
Matt Wieters 16.0 0.2 375 84.6% 34.4% 14.7% 4.8 5
Ryan Howard 15.8 -1.0 375 67.8% 37.3% 16.7% 15.0 14
Corey Dickerson 15.8 1.2 375 77.9% 22.7% 23.8% 8.8 10
Kole Calhoun 15.7 -0.2 375 80.9% 31.1% 16.7% 8.2 8
Jose Bautista 15.6 2.4 375 81.8% 23.3% 21.8% 14.6 17
Carlos Santana 15.5 -1.3 375 80.0% 27.2% 19.0% 13.3 12
C.J. Cron 15.4 2.0 375 80.8% 24.8% 20.5% 6.0 8
Miguel Cabrera 15.0 -0.2 375 81.1% 33.2% 14.9% 14.2 14
Brian Dozier 14.9 0.1 375 85.3% 27.4% 17.0% 14.9 15
Marwin Gonzalez 14.9 -0.9 375 88.5% 25.8% 17.4% 4.9 4
Rene Rivera 14.8 -0.3 375 73.1% 49.6% 10.9% 5.3 5
Marcell Ozuna 14.7 1.1 375 67.9% 30.6% 18.9% 12.9 14
Pedro Alvarez 14.6 0.1 375 72.9% 31.2% 17.1% 12.9 13

As you can see (keep in mind the inflated HR/OFFB ratios to date), JD Martinez, Steve Pearce and Scott Van Slyke have excellent HR potential and they aren’t likely to drop off based on the individual factors in the formula.

Here is the entire list ranked by most likely to decline:

Rnk xHR Differential Hrdiff PA Ct% OFFB% HR/OFFB xHR HR ePA xHR(375)
1 Albert Pujols 5.3 364 84.8% 20.0% 18.9% 11.7 17 375 12.0
2 Alexei Ramirez 4.5 350 84.9% 10.6% 11.0% 3.5 8 375 3.7
3 Justin Morneau 4.5 325 85.0% 18.2% 16.9% 8.5 13 375 9.8
4 Adam Jones 4.0 368 78.0% 23.2% 18.0% 12.0 16 375 12.2
5 Mark Reynolds 3.8 280 66.4% 20.5% 24.1% 9.2 13 375 12.3
6 Charlie Blackmon 3.3 347 88.2% 19.8% 14.3% 8.7 12 375 9.4
7 Brett Lawrie 3.3 281 81.9% 21.4% 17.6% 8.7 12 375 11.6
8 Erick Aybar 3.1 345 89.7% 10.7% 8.7% 2.9 6 375 3.1
9 Salvador Perez 3.0 307 87.5% 19.0% 13.7% 7.0 10 375 8.5
10 Hunter Pence 3.0 373 77.9% 19.3% 14.3% 8.0 11 375 8.1
11 Dayan Viciedo 2.6 326 76.6% 19.3% 13.2% 6.4 9 375 7.3
12 Manny Machado 2.6 232 80.1% 14.2% 16.7% 4.4 7 375 7.1
13 Nelson Cruz 2.5 359 74.4% 32.8% 26.8% 23.5 26 375 24.5
14 Kevin Kiermaier 2.5 134 76.7% 15.0% 29.2% 4.5 7 375 12.6
15 Ian Desmond 2.5 347 70.1% 24.4% 21.1% 12.5 15 375 13.6
16 Jose Bautista 2.4 351 81.8% 23.3% 21.8% 14.6 17 375 15.6
17 Brandon Phillips 2.4 335 78.0% 18.8% 9.3% 4.6 7 375 5.1
18 Jose Abreu 2.3 308 72.2% 28.3% 37.7% 23.7 26 375 28.9
19 Melky Cabrera 2.3 386 87.2% 19.3% 13.4% 8.7 11 375 8.5
20 Nolan Arenado 2.3 208 83.0% 18.3% 11.8% 3.7 6 375 6.7
21 Michael Choice 2.3 218 78.3% 17.6% 19.0% 5.7 8 375 9.8
22 Rajai Davis 2.2 251 81.5% 16.6% 11.1% 3.8 6 375 5.6
23 Giancarlo Stanton 2.2 373 70.3% 26.6% 26.9% 18.8 21 375 18.9
24 Pablo Sandoval 2.1 336 82.2% 24.1% 11.9% 7.9 10 375 8.8
25 Derek Norris 2.0 207 82.3% 18.8% 18.6% 6.0 8 375 10.8
26 Michael Morse 2.0 300 75.9% 22.3% 21.7% 11.0 13 375 13.8
27 C.J. Cron 2.0 147 80.8% 24.8% 20.5% 6.0 8 375 15.4
28 Raul Ibanez 1.9 198 73.2% 12.7% 11.4% 2.1 4 375 4.0
29 Torii Hunter 1.8 278 78.7% 27.2% 13.7% 8.2 10 375 11.0
30 Starlin Castro 1.8 353 81.2% 22.8% 14.1% 9.2 11 375 9.8
31 Wilin Rosario 1.7 230 75.3% 24.1% 15.1% 6.3 8 375 10.3
32 Tyler Flowers 1.7 249 66.3% 11.2% 17.9% 3.3 5 375 5.0
33 Domonic Brown 1.6 311 80.1% 16.0% 8.5% 3.4 5 375 4.1
34 Brandon Belt 1.6 139 69.5% 27.2% 28.1% 7.4 9 375 19.9
35 Michael Cuddyer 1.5 131 82.7% 16.0% 20.0% 3.5 5 375 9.9
36 Tommy Medica 1.5 115 77.8% 13.8% 20.0% 2.5 4 375 8.1
37 Jhonny Peralta 1.5 332 77.5% 27.5% 14.8% 10.5 12 375 11.8
38 Neil Walker 1.5 303 83.3% 26.3% 14.3% 9.5 11 375 11.7
39 Jose Reyes 1.5 318 86.3% 23.6% 7.0% 4.5 6 375 5.3
40 Yoenis Cespedes 1.4 345 80.8% 34.1% 13.2% 12.6 14 375 13.6
41 Ian Kinsler 1.4 367 89.9% 32.4% 9.0% 9.6 11 375 9.8
42 John Mayberry 1.3 128 77.5% 19.9% 18.5% 3.7 5 375 10.7
43 Martin Prado 1.3 351 87.9% 11.1% 4.8% 1.7 3 375 1.8
44 Jason Heyward 1.3 371 83.3% 23.2% 9.3% 6.7 8 375 6.7
45 Ben Zobrist 1.3 325 84.6% 20.9% 8.2% 4.7 6 375 5.4
46 Collin Cowgill 1.3 191 78.0% 16.5% 15.2% 3.7 5 375 7.3
47 Carlos Gomez 1.3 345 72.8% 29.1% 16.0% 11.7 13 375 12.8
48 Brian McCann 1.3 295 85.6% 29.1% 11.9% 8.7 10 375 11.1
49 Andrelton Simmons 1.2 318 86.7% 21.9% 6.3% 3.8 5 375 4.5
50 Chris Heisey 1.2 152 77.0% 10.4% 6.5% 0.8 2 375 1.9
51 Daniel Murphy 1.2 379 89.8% 19.0% 9.0% 5.8 7 375 5.7
52 Alex Presley 1.2 211 82.7% 19.4% 8.3% 2.8 4 375 5.0
53 Mike Aviles 1.2 202 84.4% 16.5% 6.5% 1.8 3 375 3.4
54 Corey Dickerson 1.2 210 77.9% 22.7% 23.8% 8.8 10 375 15.8
55 Evan Longoria 1.1 381 78.1% 25.6% 11.6% 8.9 10 375 8.7
56 Marcell Ozuna 1.1 328 67.9% 30.6% 18.9% 12.9 14 375 14.7
57 Gordon Beckham 1.1 268 83.3% 24.6% 10.8% 5.9 7 375 8.3
58 Jordy Mercer 1.1 275 80.2% 22.7% 9.8% 4.9 6 375 6.7
59 Alejandro De Aza 1.1 279 79.3% 18.1% 9.8% 3.9 5 375 5.3
60 Starling Marte 1.1 319 70.6% 14.3% 12.2% 3.9 5 375 4.6
61 Yonder Alonso 1.1 244 86.0% 24.4% 7.7% 3.9 5 375 6.1
62 Hanley Ramirez 1.0 317 81.4% 24.9% 15.5% 10.0 11 375 11.8
63 Andre Ethier 1.0 263 79.7% 15.9% 8.9% 3.0 4 375 4.2
64 Josmil Pinto 1.0 158 80.5% 22.1% 21.2% 6.0 7 375 14.2
65 Yan Gomes 1.0 278 76.4% 27.5% 13.6% 8.0 9 375 10.7
66 Delmon Young 1.0 114 74.9% 18.0% 13.0% 2.0 3 375 6.6
67 Ryan Ludwick 1.0 225 73.4% 22.4% 10.9% 4.0 5 375 6.7
68 Nick Markakis 1.0 393 90.5% 23.0% 7.4% 6.0 7 375 5.8
69 Evan Gattis 1.0 243 73.7% 38.3% 21.9% 15.0 16 375 23.2
70 Logan Morrison 1.0 105 77.3% 22.5% 16.7% 3.0 4 375 10.9
71 Adam Lind 0.9 187 82.1% 20.4% 9.8% 3.1 4 375 6.1
72 B.J. Upton 0.9 342 68.2% 25.6% 10.1% 6.1 7 375 6.6
73 Leonys Martin 0.9 299 76.7% 12.6% 7.1% 2.1 3 375 2.6
74 Robinson Cano 0.9 348 85.7% 17.4% 9.8% 5.1 6 375 5.5
75 Carlos Beltran 0.9 242 86.5% 29.7% 13.0% 8.1 9 375 12.6
76 Chris Owings 0.9 254 80.1% 23.5% 10.7% 5.1 6 375 7.6
77 Desmond Jennings 0.9 361 81.0% 19.2% 10.9% 6.1 7 375 6.4
78 Omar Infante 0.9 278 87.6% 27.9% 6.1% 4.1 5 375 5.6
79 Lorenzo Cain 0.9 235 76.6% 16.7% 7.1% 2.1 3 375 3.4
80 Juan Uribe 0.8 186 78.2% 23.3% 9.3% 3.2 4 375 6.4
81 Ryan Braun 0.8 295 78.8% 25.9% 16.9% 10.2 11 375 13.0
82 Chris Carter 0.8 270 64.7% 36.5% 19.1% 12.2 13 375 16.9
83 Dioner Navarro 0.8 269 85.4% 23.0% 7.9% 4.2 5 375 5.8
84 Jon Singleton 0.8 117 63.2% 22.7% 19.0% 3.2 4 375 10.2
85 Jonathan Schoop 0.8 266 77.5% 26.5% 9.5% 5.2 6 375 7.3
86 Mike Moustakas 0.8 237 84.4% 32.9% 11.0% 7.2 8 375 11.4
87 Derek Dietrich 0.8 183 78.1% 23.1% 12.8% 4.2 5 375 8.7
88 Danny Espinosa 0.8 268 65.5% 19.9% 15.0% 5.2 6 375 7.3
89 Rougned Odor 0.8 144 83.9% 20.4% 9.1% 2.2 3 375 5.8
90 Junior Lake 0.7 250 60.8% 34.4% 15.8% 8.3 9 375 12.4
91 Willie Bloomquist 0.7 109 82.0% 5.1% 5.9% 0.3 1 375 0.9
92 Andrew Romine 0.7 148 79.9% 4.2% 5.6% 0.3 1 375 0.7
93 Matt Adams 0.7 277 81.5% 31.0% 11.8% 8.3 9 375 11.2
94 Aramis Ramirez 0.7 240 78.2% 39.9% 13.8% 10.3 11 375 16.1
95 Travis Snider 0.7 164 81.3% 18.6% 13.3% 3.3 4 375 7.6
96 Todd Frazier 0.7 354 74.7% 32.3% 19.1% 16.3 17 375 17.3
97 Matt Holliday 0.7 361 82.2% 23.3% 6.3% 4.3 5 375 4.5
98 Matt Joyce 0.7 281 75.6% 28.0% 9.0% 5.3 6 375 7.1
99 Eric Hosmer 0.7 374 83.9% 21.8% 4.9% 3.3 4 375 3.3
100 Endy Chavez 0.7 107 85.4% 7.1% 5.3% 0.3 1 375 1.2
101 Jesus Guzman 0.7 147 76.5% 12.0% 10.0% 1.3 2 375 3.4
102 Cameron Maybin 0.6 159 82.2% 7.3% 3.7% 0.4 1 375 0.8
103 Robinson Chirinos 0.6 182 79.8% 24.4% 17.9% 6.4 7 375 13.1
104 Jean Segura 0.6 333 85.8% 16.2% 7.3% 3.4 4 375 3.8
105 J.J. Hardy 0.6 313 83.8% 20.4% 2.6% 1.4 2 375 1.6
106 Yasiel Puig 0.6 355 72.9% 27.0% 14.9% 10.4 11 375 11.0
107 Dustin Pedroia 0.6 379 88.7% 19.4% 5.2% 3.4 4 375 3.4
108 Josh Harrison 0.6 228 81.4% 28.4% 8.3% 4.4 5 375 7.2
109 Yunel Escobar 0.6 296 85.6% 22.1% 6.1% 3.4 4 375 4.3
110 Ike Davis 0.6 255 82.5% 21.8% 9.6% 4.4 5 375 6.5
111 Oswaldo Arcia 0.6 150 65.6% 31.5% 14.3% 4.4 5 375 11.1
112 Carlos Quentin 0.6 108 73.7% 30.2% 14.3% 3.4 4 375 11.9
113 Alex Gordon 0.6 349 80.7% 31.0% 9.7% 8.4 9 375 9.1
114 Kolten Wong 0.5 171 90.7% 8.9% 3.3% 0.5 1 375 1.0
115 Aaron Hill 0.5 337 83.7% 31.3% 6.2% 5.5 6 375 6.1
116 A.J. Pollock 0.5 192 80.7% 28.2% 12.5% 5.5 6 375 10.7
117 Dustin Ackley 0.5 273 85.0% 24.4% 6.2% 3.5 4 375 4.8
118 Alcides Escobar 0.5 321 83.7% 20.8% 2.7% 1.5 2 375 1.7
119 Brandon Guyer 0.5 122 80.4% 9.0% 5.6% 0.5 1 375 1.5
120 Josh Hamilton 0.5 157 62.1% 28.6% 16.1% 4.5 5 375 10.7
121 Kurt Suzuki 0.4 270 92.7% 19.3% 3.2% 1.6 2 375 2.2
122 Carlos Gonzalez 0.4 212 75.3% 29.6% 16.0% 7.6 8 375 13.4
123 Kevin Frandsen 0.4 144 84.3% 12.5% 3.7% 0.6 1 375 1.5
124 Jimmy Rollins 0.4 359 83.7% 28.7% 8.8% 7.6 8 375 7.9
125 Wil Myers 0.4 224 75.8% 24.9% 10.9% 4.6 5 375 7.7
126 Jose Altuve 0.4 376 90.8% 21.4% 2.2% 1.6 2 375 1.6
127 Alberto Callaspo 0.4 292 91.0% 23.4% 4.2% 2.6 3 375 3.4
128 Adrian Gonzalez 0.4 354 79.9% 29.6% 16.3% 13.6 14 375 14.4
129 Coco Crisp 0.4 278 85.8% 28.6% 9.7% 6.6 7 375 8.9
130 Peter Bourjos 0.4 180 74.7% 14.0% 8.7% 1.6 2 375 3.4
131 Ben Revere 0.4 306 91.4% 7.3% 3.1% 0.6 1 375 0.8
132 Nate Schierholtz 0.4 280 80.5% 30.9% 6.7% 4.6 5 375 6.2
133 Jacoby Ellsbury 0.4 350 85.3% 22.0% 5.6% 3.6 4 375 3.9
134 Conor Gillaspie 0.4 251 84.7% 16.8% 1.8% 0.6 1 375 1.0
135 Billy Hamilton 0.3 312 84.6% 21.8% 6.3% 3.7 4 375 4.4
136 Travis d’Arnaud 0.3 177 81.3% 29.9% 8.5% 3.7 4 375 7.8
137 Troy Tulowitzki 0.3 338 82.3% 29.3% 21.7% 17.7 18 375 19.6
138 Jonathan Lucroy 0.3 343 87.6% 27.8% 9.2% 7.7 8 375 8.4
139 Asdrubal Cabrera 0.3 342 81.9% 31.2% 8.8% 7.7 8 375 8.4
140 Marlon Byrd 0.3 348 72.0% 35.6% 17.6% 15.7 16 375 16.9
141 Jedd Gyorko 0.3 221 74.8% 30.6% 9.3% 4.7 5 375 7.9
142 Josh Rutledge 0.3 103 77.5% 22.3% 9.5% 1.7 2 375 6.2
143 A.J. Pierzynski 0.3 263 82.9% 25.0% 6.8% 3.7 4 375 5.3
144 Elvis Andrus 0.3 363 86.4% 11.4% 4.8% 1.7 2 375 1.8
145 Yasmani Grandal 0.3 187 74.8% 26.5% 15.4% 5.7 6 375 11.4
146 Scooter Gennett 0.3 269 85.1% 27.0% 9.2% 5.7 6 375 8.0
147 Juan Lagares 0.3 196 78.8% 22.8% 4.9% 1.7 2 375 3.3
148 Jay Bruce 0.3 275 70.1% 24.4% 14.3% 6.7 7 375 9.2
149 Gregory Polanco 0.3 103 77.1% 21.7% 15.8% 2.7 3 375 9.9
150 Stefen Romero 0.3 159 73.9% 31.7% 7.3% 2.7 3 375 6.4
151 Daniel Nava 0.3 161 87.8% 18.4% 6.7% 1.7 2 375 4.0
152 Chris Johnson 0.3 333 73.7% 21.2% 5.3% 2.7 3 375 3.1
153 Brad Miller 0.3 272 78.5% 28.1% 12.9% 7.7 8 375 10.7
154 Michael Bourn 0.3 300 78.5% 16.3% 4.5% 1.7 2 375 2.2
155 Brian Roberts 0.3 273 87.1% 27.2% 5.8% 3.7 4 375 5.2
156 Jayson Werth 0.2 353 83.1% 30.9% 7.4% 6.8 7 375 7.2
157 Devin Mesoraco 0.2 192 74.0% 36.0% 28.8% 14.8 15 375 28.8
158 Nick Swisher 0.2 275 76.6% 27.1% 8.3% 4.8 5 375 6.5
159 Prince Fielder 0.2 178 80.9% 23.0% 8.3% 2.8 3 375 5.8
160 Yangervis Solarte 0.2 278 88.3% 27.0% 8.7% 5.8 6 375 7.8
161 Zack Cozart 0.2 302 86.8% 24.6% 2.7% 1.8 2 375 2.2
162 Carlos Ruiz 0.2 273 83.0% 23.4% 3.3% 1.8 2 375 2.4
163 James Loney 0.2 358 87.8% 27.0% 5.6% 4.8 5 375 5.0
164 Josh Reddick 0.2 196 80.4% 31.1% 7.7% 3.8 4 375 7.2
165 Will Venable 0.2 255 73.6% 22.9% 4.2% 1.8 2 375 2.6
166 Chris Coghlan 0.2 125 80.7% 24.0% 7.4% 1.8 2 375 5.4
167 Matt Wieters 0.2 112 84.6% 34.4% 14.7% 4.8 5 375 16.0
168 Nick Castellanos 0.2 293 71.9% 38.5% 7.1% 5.8 6 375 7.4
169 Dee Gordon 0.2 355 89.3% 14.2% 4.0% 1.8 2 375 1.9
170 Ryan Raburn 0.2 155 73.7% 27.6% 5.7% 1.8 2 375 4.4
171 Donnie Murphy 0.2 127 68.5% 29.5% 14.8% 3.8 4 375 11.2
172 Colby Rasmus 0.2 196 69.0% 37.1% 23.5% 11.8 12 375 22.6
173 Jeff Baker 0.2 129 81.1% 21.6% 8.0% 1.8 2 375 5.3
174 Ed Lucas 0.2 138 79.5% 11.8% 6.3% 0.8 1 375 2.2
175 Darwin Barney 0.2 185 85.7% 29.2% 3.9% 1.8 2 375 3.7
176 David Murphy 0.2 295 85.2% 28.0% 6.8% 4.8 5 375 6.1
177 Wilson Ramos 0.2 122 82.7% 19.9% 9.1% 1.8 2 375 5.6
178 Rickie Weeks 0.2 150 73.9% 18.7% 13.6% 2.8 3 375 7.1
179 Nick Hundley 0.2 118 75.7% 30.7% 6.7% 1.8 2 375 5.8
180 Brayan Pena 0.2 182 88.4% 25.2% 7.0% 2.8 3 375 5.8
181 Everth Cabrera 0.2 343 80.5% 10.6% 9.7% 2.8 3 375 3.1
182 Sam Fuld 0.2 153 83.6% 23.5% 2.8% 0.8 1 375 2.0
183 Casey McGehee 0.2 367 86.2% 20.2% 1.3% 0.8 1 375 0.9
184 Alfonso Soriano 0.1 234 69.5% 39.6% 9.1% 5.9 6 375 9.4
185 Reed Johnson 0.1 122 78.5% 33.1% 5.9% 1.9 2 375 5.7
186 Tyler Colvin 0.1 114 68.1% 22.3% 5.0% 0.9 1 375 2.8
187 Brock Holt 0.1 230 86.1% 19.4% 4.9% 1.9 2 375 3.1
188 Alex Rios 0.1 343 84.5% 26.8% 3.7% 2.9 3 375 3.1
189 Angel Pagan 0.1 262 89.6% 23.7% 5.2% 2.9 3 375 4.1
190 Denard Span 0.1 344 92.5% 23.3% 1.2% 0.9 1 375 1.0
191 Danny Santana 0.1 143 80.9% 16.4% 10.0% 1.9 2 375 5.0
192 Chris Young 0.1 226 81.0% 37.7% 10.0% 6.9 7 375 11.5
193 Justin Smoak 0.1 241 75.4% 30.4% 12.5% 6.9 7 375 10.7
194 Alexi Amarista 0.1 181 86.2% 22.1% 2.6% 0.9 1 375 1.9
195 David Peralta 0.1 109 77.5% 21.8% 15.8% 2.9 3 375 10.0
196 Cody Ross 0.1 154 82.5% 23.6% 3.0% 0.9 1 375 2.2
197 Matt Dominguez 0.1 347 79.0% 32.2% 12.4% 10.9 11 375 11.8
198 Nick Punto 0.1 160 80.8% 18.3% 3.8% 0.9 1 375 2.1
199 Pedro Alvarez 0.1 332 72.9% 31.2% 17.1% 12.9 13 375 14.6
200 Eric Young 0.1 215 79.4% 14.6% 3.7% 0.9 1 375 1.6
201 Steve Pearce 0.1 174 76.2% 39.7% 18.9% 9.9 10 375 21.4
202 Ryan Hanigan 0.1 179 83.4% 29.0% 9.1% 3.9 4 375 8.2
203 Paul Konerko 0.1 125 82.1% 37.4% 10.3% 3.9 4 375 11.8
204 Sean Rodriguez 0.1 133 73.1% 34.7% 23.5% 7.9 8 375 22.4
205 Edwin Encarnacion 0.1 369 82.1% 38.2% 22.4% 25.9 26 375 26.4
206 Brian Dozier 0.1 375 85.3% 27.4% 17.0% 14.9 15 375 14.9
207 Charlie Culberson 0.1 119 72.3% 24.8% 9.1% 1.9 2 375 6.1
208 Ryan Zimmerman 0.1 161 81.0% 29.4% 7.7% 2.9 3 375 6.9
209 Josh Donaldson 0.0 369 77.0% 32.3% 19.6% 18.0 18 375 18.2
210 Xander Bogaerts 0.0 335 76.4% 32.2% 7.2% 6.0 6 375 6.7
211 Jackie Bradley Jr 0.0 275 73.3% 24.3% 2.0% 1.0 1 375 1.3
212 Justin Turner 0.0 176 84.8% 23.9% 8.3% 3.0 3 375 6.3
213 Gerardo Parra 0.0 371 85.1% 18.6% 8.5% 5.0 5 375 5.0
214 Logan Forsythe 0.0 176 83.8% 28.9% 4.7% 2.0 2 375 4.2
215 Grady Sizemore 0.0 205 81.4% 29.8% 4.0% 2.0 2 375 3.6
216 Derek Jeter 0.0 328 86.9% 18.5% 3.8% 2.0 2 375 2.3
217 Chase Utley 0.0 357 85.7% 31.0% 6.3% 6.0 6 375 6.3
218 Hector Sanchez 0.0 152 72.3% 36.3% 7.5% 3.0 3 375 7.4
219 Tommy La Stella 0.0 133 82.1% 24.5% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
220 Ichiro Suzuki 0.0 182 86.0% 6.5% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
221 James Jones 0.0 217 82.3% 7.0% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
222 A.J. Ellis 0.0 123 86.5% 37.6% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
223 Craig Gentry 0.0 168 83.1% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
224 Norichika Aoki 0.0 292 90.7% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
225 Jose Tabata 0.0 154 83.1% 20.2% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
226 Anthony Gose 0.0 129 73.1% 14.4% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
227 Gregor Blanco 0.0 186 80.8% 27.1% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
228 Ryan Kalish 0.0 100 80.6% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
229 Adeiny Hechavarria 0.0 287 83.5% 17.9% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
230 Clint Barmes 0.0 100 78.4% 27.6% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
231 Gerald Laird 0.0 101 83.2% 35.0% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
232 Jonathan Herrera 0.0 103 83.8% 10.9% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
233 Tony Gwynn 0.0 110 84.1% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
234 Ender Inciarte 0.0 139 89.7% 15.4% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
235 Mark Ellis 0.0 162 89.0% 26.5% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
236 Eric Sogard 0.0 169 91.5% 27.8% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
237 Ryan Sweeney 0.0 120 89.5% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
238 John Baker 0.0 111 76.2% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
239 Jose Molina 0.0 136 74.4% 28.6% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
240 Joaquin Arias 0.0 100 87.4% 25.4% 0.0% 0.0 0 375 0.0
241 Mitch Moreland 0.0 184 76.2% 27.9% 5.1% 2.0 2 375 4.1
242 Chris Parmelee 0.0 119 80.8% 37.6% 11.1% 4.0 4 375 12.7
243 Chris Colabello 0.0 161 69.9% 24.1% 14.8% 4.0 4 375 9.4
244 Carl Crawford 0.0 157 88.2% 28.3% 10.3% 4.0 4 375 9.6
245 Eduardo Escobar 0.0 240 80.0% 28.4% 3.7% 2.0 2 375 3.2
246 Ryan Flaherty 0.0 150 75.3% 27.6% 12.9% 4.0 4 375 10.1
247 John Jaso 0.0 230 79.5% 29.1% 13.2% 7.0 7 375 11.5
248 Jarrod Dyson 0.0 140 89.7% 18.9% 4.3% 1.0 1 375 2.8
249 Billy Butler 0.0 341 84.2% 22.0% 3.2% 2.0 2 375 2.2
250 Justin Ruggiano -0.1 129 70.8% 32.3% 10.3% 3.1 3 375 8.9
251 Emilio Bonifacio -0.1 261 83.7% 19.3% 2.5% 1.1 1 375 1.5
252 Yadier Molina -0.1 316 85.5% 26.5% 9.9% 7.1 7 375 8.4
253 Abraham Almonte -0.1 113 73.0% 24.4% 5.3% 1.1 1 375 3.5
254 Brandon Crawford -0.1 308 75.1% 36.3% 8.4% 7.1 7 375 8.6
255 Bryce Harper -0.1 103 76.7% 27.5% 5.0% 1.1 1 375 4.0
256 Nate McLouth -0.1 145 87.0% 26.0% 3.3% 1.1 1 375 2.8
257 Cody Asche -0.1 191 77.4% 25.5% 13.5% 5.1 5 375 10.0
258 Chris Denorfia -0.1 212 82.7% 21.9% 2.9% 1.1 1 375 1.9
259 Welington Castillo -0.1 202 77.9% 33.6% 11.5% 6.1 6 375 11.3
260 J.D. Martinez -0.1 166 75.0% 35.7% 22.7% 10.1 10 375 22.8
261 Bobby Abreu -0.1 110 82.3% 30.5% 4.0% 1.1 1 375 3.8
262 Victor Martinez -0.1 337 92.6% 34.8% 19.4% 21.1 21 375 23.5
263 Chris Iannetta -0.1 188 72.3% 33.9% 11.1% 5.1 5 375 10.2
264 Skip Schumaker -0.1 135 85.0% 22.5% 4.3% 1.1 1 375 3.1
265 Corey Hart -0.1 156 75.3% 40.2% 10.9% 5.1 5 375 12.3
266 Adam Eaton -0.1 292 88.5% 19.4% 2.3% 1.1 1 375 1.5
267 Miguel Cabrera -0.2 353 81.1% 33.2% 14.9% 14.2 14 375 15.0
268 Robbie Grossman -0.2 133 76.0% 25.6% 8.3% 2.2 2 375 6.1
269 Moises Sierra -0.2 115 75.2% 23.8% 10.5% 2.2 2 375 7.1
270 Ruben Tejada -0.2 254 82.6% 23.3% 4.4% 2.2 2 375 3.2
271 Anthony Recker -0.2 120 71.1% 44.6% 5.7% 2.2 2 375 6.8
272 Kole Calhoun -0.2 195 80.9% 31.1% 16.7% 8.2 8 375 15.7
273 Jeff Mathis -0.2 103 68.0% 26.5% 11.8% 2.2 2 375 8.0
274 Marcus Semien -0.2 181 76.2% 27.7% 8.3% 3.2 3 375 6.6
275 Jon Jay -0.2 219 87.5% 17.3% 3.6% 1.2 1 375 2.0
276 Andrew McCutchen -0.2 374 78.3% 29.5% 14.1% 12.2 12 375 12.2
277 Jonny Gomes -0.2 203 75.9% 34.4% 9.8% 5.2 5 375 9.6
278 Dan Uggla -0.2 143 74.7% 40.2% 5.1% 2.2 2 375 5.8
279 George Springer -0.2 302 61.0% 34.1% 25.8% 16.2 16 375 20.1
280 Jason Kubel -0.2 176 71.6% 29.9% 3.2% 1.2 1 375 2.6
281 Trevor Plouffe -0.2 294 79.1% 33.2% 6.8% 5.2 5 375 6.7
282 Steve Tolleson -0.2 101 76.0% 34.7% 8.3% 2.2 2 375 8.2
283 Drew Stubbs -0.2 216 74.9% 25.0% 15.4% 6.2 6 375 10.8
284 Caleb Joseph -0.2 108 79.6% 36.3% 10.3% 3.2 3 375 11.2
285 David Wright -0.2 354 82.3% 31.1% 6.9% 6.2 6 375 6.6
286 Brandon Barnes -0.2 177 70.6% 26.0% 10.0% 3.2 3 375 6.9
287 Cesar Hernandez -0.3 101 77.3% 21.0% 7.7% 1.3 1 375 4.7
288 Austin Jackson -0.3 316 83.1% 36.9% 3.4% 3.3 3 375 3.9
289 David DeJesus -0.3 210 87.5% 28.1% 10.2% 5.3 5 375 9.4
290 Kelly Johnson -0.3 185 78.4% 24.0% 15.2% 5.3 5 375 10.7
291 Rene Rivera -0.3 134 73.1% 49.6% 10.9% 5.3 5 375 14.8
292 Ramiro Pena -0.3 103 77.9% 34.1% 12.0% 3.3 3 375 12.0
293 Howie Kendrick -0.3 359 80.0% 19.4% 7.7% 4.3 4 375 4.5
294 David Lough -0.3 131 82.7% 36.0% 5.9% 2.3 2 375 6.6
295 Juan Francisco -0.3 203 66.3% 30.4% 32.5% 13.3 13 375 24.6
296 Jonathan Villar -0.3 247 71.4% 26.2% 13.6% 6.3 6 375 9.6
297 Jason Kipnis -0.3 249 80.3% 30.4% 5.5% 3.3 3 375 5.0
298 Adrian Beltre -0.3 295 84.8% 34.0% 11.0% 9.3 9 375 11.9
299 Chase Headley -0.3 251 76.4% 29.2% 11.3% 6.3 6 375 9.5
300 Luis Valbuena -0.3 265 82.2% 36.8% 6.7% 5.3 5 375 7.6
301 Brett Gardner -0.3 355 87.0% 22.3% 12.1% 8.3 8 375 8.8
302 David Freese -0.4 246 76.0% 23.3% 7.7% 3.4 3 375 5.1
303 Drew Butera -0.4 130 83.0% 39.3% 5.6% 2.4 2 375 6.8
304 Lyle Overbay -0.4 176 75.0% 31.4% 8.1% 3.4 3 375 7.2
305 Mark Teixeira -0.4 261 80.9% 29.1% 25.0% 15.4 15 375 22.1
306 Khris Davis -0.4 318 71.5% 37.5% 16.9% 14.4 14 375 17.0
307 Jose Lobaton -0.4 151 75.0% 30.5% 6.9% 2.4 2 375 5.9
308 Lucas Duda -0.4 286 75.4% 40.2% 14.3% 12.4 12 375 16.2
309 Anthony Rendon -0.4 356 86.5% 34.2% 11.8% 12.4 12 375 13.1
310 Joe Mauer -0.4 339 84.9% 19.2% 4.3% 2.4 2 375 2.7
311 Lonnie Chisenhall -0.4 256 84.1% 33.5% 13.0% 9.4 9 375 13.8
312 Jed Lowrie -0.4 344 87.8% 40.2% 3.6% 4.4 4 375 4.8
313 Gaby Sanchez -0.4 146 79.5% 38.3% 12.2% 5.4 5 375 13.9
314 Jason Castro -0.4 291 71.6% 29.6% 12.1% 7.4 7 375 9.6
315 Justin Upton -0.5 329 72.3% 33.3% 20.8% 16.5 16 375 18.8
316 Michael Brantley -0.5 345 91.0% 23.5% 16.9% 12.5 12 375 13.6
317 Hank Conger -0.5 146 79.5% 43.0% 7.0% 3.5 3 375 8.9
318 Aaron Hicks -0.5 156 79.7% 25.3% 4.8% 1.5 1 375 3.6
319 Allen Craig -0.5 352 85.6% 22.4% 9.7% 6.5 6 375 7.0
320 DJ LeMahieu -0.5 295 87.8% 18.7% 7.3% 3.5 3 375 4.5
321 Buster Posey -0.6 307 87.0% 30.3% 11.8% 9.6 9 375 11.7
322 Brandon Hicks -0.6 238 62.4% 42.8% 13.6% 8.6 8 375 13.6
323 Matt Kemp -0.6 306 71.5% 27.6% 14.3% 8.6 8 375 10.6
324 Miguel Montero -0.6 328 81.5% 28.9% 15.1% 11.6 11 375 13.3
325 Curtis Granderson -0.7 342 72.9% 36.4% 14.0% 12.7 12 375 13.9
326 Russell Martin -0.7 201 76.6% 25.2% 12.1% 4.7 4 375 8.8
327 Michael Saunders -0.7 190 79.4% 34.8% 10.9% 5.7 5 375 11.3
328 Brandon Moss -0.7 336 74.4% 40.7% 19.4% 19.7 19 375 22.0
329 Marc Krauss -0.7 125 77.5% 42.8% 11.4% 4.7 4 375 14.2
330 Jarrod Saltalamacchia -0.7 231 65.3% 38.4% 15.1% 8.7 8 375 14.2
331 Josh Willingham -0.7 162 73.4% 39.1% 16.7% 7.7 7 375 17.9
332 Matt Carpenter -0.8 384 89.5% 31.3% 4.5% 4.8 4 375 4.7
333 Alex Avila -0.8 236 69.0% 24.4% 14.7% 5.8 5 375 9.3
334 Marwin Gonzalez -0.9 123 88.5% 25.8% 17.4% 4.9 4 375 14.9
335 Mike Napoli -0.9 282 74.7% 28.5% 18.2% 10.9 10 375 14.5
336 Garrett Jones -1.0 320 79.9% 37.4% 11.5% 11.0 10 375 12.9
337 Ryan Howard -1.0 357 67.8% 37.3% 16.7% 15.0 14 375 15.8
338 Mike Olt -1.1 188 66.5% 37.8% 25.6% 12.1 11 375 24.1
339 Dexter Fowler -1.2 334 79.7% 30.0% 9.0% 7.2 6 375 8.0
340 Carlos Santana -1.3 320 80.0% 27.2% 19.0% 13.3 12 375 15.5
341 Mike Zunino -1.3 265 66.3% 44.8% 16.9% 13.3 12 375 18.8
342 Seth Smith -1.3 281 80.6% 31.9% 14.3% 10.3 9 375 13.8
343 Freddie Freeman -1.3 377 78.3% 33.6% 14.4% 14.3 13 375 14.3
344 Joey Votto -1.4 264 81.8% 30.2% 11.3% 7.4 6 375 10.5
345 Chris Davis -1.4 299 67.4% 33.0% 21.7% 14.4 13 375 18.1
346 Christian Yelich -1.7 306 83.1% 19.6% 15.4% 7.7 6 375 9.4
347 Paul Goldschmidt -1.7 381 76.1% 28.8% 20.0% 16.7 15 375 16.4
348 David Ortiz -1.7 353 82.7% 38.5% 18.4% 20.7 19 375 22.0
349 Adam LaRoche -1.7 282 81.9% 35.2% 16.9% 13.7 12 375 18.3
350 Kyle Seager -1.7 339 83.2% 38.6% 13.5% 14.7 13 375 16.3
351 Scott Van Slyke -1.9 134 75.9% 41.3% 21.2% 8.9 7 375 24.9
352 Shin-Soo Choo -2.4 342 80.0% 30.3% 12.5% 10.4 8 375 11.4
353 Anthony Rizzo -3.1 357 80.5% 35.3% 19.8% 20.1 17 375 21.1
354 Adam Dunn -4.1 289 70.9% 41.9% 18.8% 16.1 12 375 20.9
355 Mike Trout -4.5 362 80.7% 40.6% 19.8% 23.5 19 375 24.3

 

Follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter.

      • Dano

        dano says:
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        @Fish: this is different…its based on diatance and angle vs plate appearance results. Thanks for the value add though…I’d use this after the season and combine the two to see what we come up with.

      • Dano

        dano says:
        (link)

        @Fish: this is different…its based on diatance and angle vs plate appearance results. Thanks for the value add though…I’d use this after the season and combine the two to see what we come up with.

        • Fish says:
          (link)

          @dano:

          I realize it’s different as this might be the first time I’ve seen of the OFFB and Ct.% formula. Count me as one of the curious ones to see which xHR formula has a higher R-squared value.

          From my experience with the Fangraphs formula, it feels like it has a weakness with the line of regression. They used a straight line of regression when it feels like the general trend in their numbers suggest a parabolic curve could better predict the xHR rate for hitters who average a FB of more than 300ft. To their (Fangraphs) credit, they acknowledge that weakness in the first part of their series.

          …I think we just passed the line from overly STATty to overly NERDy.

          • Dano

            dano says:
            (link)

            @Fish: ha yeah…well it’s kinda like pitch f/x vs outcomes…here…it’s a difference of levels. I can guarantee angle and dist is better b/c that’s on the bat to ball level ie pitch f/x on the pitch level vs. Mine which is on the plate appearance outcome level like k,bb or a bip in general. I asked jzimm and while he said he would keep it the same he agrees combining the two somehow would have an even better xHR but it’s connecting two different levels which I’m not a fan of .

  1. No Soup for Yu says:
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    Darn I have Pujols and Morneau…. Would I be winning by selling Pujols in these trades in your opinion? 10 team h2h categories redraft with OBP

    I give Pujols and K Davis/Polanco I get C Davis and Pence
    I give Pujols and Polanco I get Votto/Rizzo and M latos
    I give Pujols and Altuve I get Freeman and Cano
    I give Pujols and K Davis I get A Gon and J Bruce
    I give Pujols and Polanco I get B Hamilton and B Moss
    I give Pujols and Morneau and Marte I get A Jones and B Moss

    Thanks for the help!

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @No Soup for Yu: not sure of your team needs. Id target outside of latos. I like freeman and cano more but Altuve and his speed have been glorious I’d you need the sb. Can you trade just Pujols for moss + something/sp. That’s something I’d do.

      • No Soup for Yu says:
        (link)

        @dano:

        I think I probably could trade Pujols for Moss + something but in a shallow league I prefer to trade the 2 for a better 1 but the waiver wire has so much talent still.

        Also I have Marte, K Davis, and Polanco sharing one outfield spot so I wouldn’t mind trading Pujols and an outfielder for an upgrade.

        I guess to simplify how do you feel about these two options….
        Pujols for C Davis
        Pujols, Marte, Morneau for B Moss, B Hamilton, S Gray

        • Dano

          dano says:
          (link)

          @No Soup for Yu: I hear you. Then I’d trade Pujols, marte & k.Davis for a clear upgrade like Goldy/mcutch or with another for trout somehow. Maybe someone will accept the quantity for quality

  2. Anthony Gayton says:
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    Brett Gardner and CJ Wilson or Leonys Martin, Lincecum, and Gallardo?? Thanks man!

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @Anthony Gayton: @Anthony Gayton: hm, if i knew it would last i’d say the 15/40 from gardner. i might say that side in any case.

  3. stonepie says:
    (link)

    great work again between this and the pitching article. i own many of the pitchers who will be improving and some of the hitters who should (rizzo, choo, just landed chris davis). davis is such an obvious buy low to me. he’s had some terrible babip luck while still maintaining a good fly ball rate and great avg. distance.
    he won’t be as good as last year but no reason he can’t hit a 35 HR pace the rest of the season

    • stonepie says:
      (link)

      @stonepie: the only problem i see is that you assume hitters will keep up their hr/fb rate. abreu won’t continue hitting 37% of his FB for homers.. just like davis didnt after the first half of 2013. while he will regress, he can still be a ~25% hr/fb guy which is still excellent

      • Dano

        dano says:
        (link)

        @stonepie: yeah i totally agree and mentioned that in the post (“keep in mind inflated hr/fb ratios” and that isn’t stabilized yet). The xHR in this case is descriptive even and not predictive i.e. im calling a drop on pujols even with the 15% hr/fb he has now. I would use the avg distance/angle formula to further verify an expected drop or rise….not my formula though. this is another level to look at = descriptive/plate appearance outcome level. Jeff Zimmerman’s xHR using distance and angle is on an even better but still descriptive level.

  4. Goose! says:
    (link)

    My Albert Pujols for his Scott Kazmir. Do you make the deal?

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @Goose!: no i wouldnt do this. you can get better for pujols.

  5. DiRo says:
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    Would you trade Pujols for either J Zimmerman, Weaver, Ryu or Shields?

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @DiRo: maybeee Zimmermann

  6. Andre says:
    (link)

    Trade Question:

    I’m in a 10 team, h2h, keeper league….5 keepers per team. Hits, HR, RBI, Avg, SB, and runs are the offensive counting stats….W, Sv, ERA, Whip, Ks, and QS are the pitching categories….. I’ve just been offered B.Moss and Sonny Gray for Morse and Jose Fernandez. Fernadez was one of my keepers, however Harvey is sitting on the Waiver Wire so I think he’d be a good replacement for JoFer….my question is, is Moss’ season legit? Do I make this trade or try and get a guy like Lucroy from him instead? My team as it stands is like this:

    C. Posey (K)
    1b. Adams
    2b. Rendon
    3b. Arenado
    SS. D. Gordon
    Inf. Seager
    Of. McCutchen (K), Stanton (K), K. Davis
    UTL. Morse, A. Gordon

    bench: C. Granderson, Bogaerts

    Sp: Darvish (K), Weaver, Hammel, Bailey, Keuchel, Alvarez, Wood, Roark,

    Rp: Soriano, Robertson, Soria

    DL: Cashner, Fernandez (K)

    • Dano

      dano says:
      (link)

      @Andre: I’m about the win now so I’d def pull that trade with Harvey as a free pickup.

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