The Jays started this trading season with a bang by sucking the soul from the Marlins, leaving them soul-less. Now they’re finishing up the winter trading season by reaching into the Mets’ chest and ripping out their heart like Mola Ram. The Mets trading Cy Young winner, R.A. Dickey is the smartest thing I’ve seen the Mets do since they clearly labeled the foul lines during their 1986 championship. There’s no reason people need to be sniffing powdered limestone. “Hey, Mex, wanna go to Tijuana to get some Devil’s Dandruff?” “Doc, we got a World Series game today.” *blank stare from Gooden* “So?” I don’t think Dickey is a one-hit wonder (pun noted); he was solid enough since 2010. His last three seasons ERAs are 2.84, 3.28, 2.73. Sure, there’s some xFIP issues in those years and his K-rates in 2010 and 2011 were 5.37 and 5.78. This was not an ace. Last year, he was. He matched his insane 1st half (2.40 ERA, 123 Ks in 120 IP) with a great 2nd half (3.09 ERA, 107 Ks in 113 2/3 IP). He’s 38 years old, but knuckleballers age at wildly different rates than most pitchers. Phil Niekro didn’t really peak until he was a doppelganger for Phil Donahue. I mean, when your fastest pitch couldn’t win a SpongeBob at a local carnival it’s not unreasonable to think Dickey can still have success. Still, Dickey has nowhere to go but down. This is a classic sell high trade, so I say good for the Mets. Dickey is a tough pitcher to predict. It’s not surprising that he had a great year last year vs. the AL. He had a great year vs. everyone. In 24 IP, he had a 1.88 ERA and a 0.50 WHIP with 28 Ks vs. the AL. In 26 IP in 2011, his ERA was 2.08 with a 1.08 WHIP and 24 Ks vs. the AL. I think his Ks are going to fall a bit closer to his career average. Give him say a 7+ K-rate instead of a 8+ K-rate, and, due to Metco suppressing homers a tad more than Rogers, I’m going to bump up his ERA a bit. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 16-8/3.38/1.17/182. There is admittedly a larger margin of error in this line than I’ve given other pitchers. Anyway, here’s some more offseason moves for 2013 fantasy baseball:
Travis d’Arnaud – Traded to the Mets. He’s the best catching prospect in baseball. hitting-wise, and he’s not too shabby with the glove. On one hand, he’s being slightly boosted by the friendly PCL with his 2012 numbers at 45/16/52/.333/1. On the other hand, those stats were only in 67 games because he tore his PCL. PCL giveth, PCL taketh away. On a third hand, there’s no third hand — freak! He was on pace for 30+ homers when he was shut down at the June with the injury, an injury that needed two months to recover. I should just say, do you want 2013′s Wilin Rosario? That’s what we’re looking at here. Last year, the fifteenth best catcher was Jesus Montero with a line of 46/15/62/.260. If d’Arnaud hits less than 15 homers in a full season of ABs, I’d be shocked. 15 homers isn’t terrific, I know. That’s the base. There’s a ton of upside from that. He usually chips in a few steals, having one year in the minors when he stole 8 bags. He always hits for power and average. It wasn’t a complete accident I brought out Montero’s stat line. d’Arnaud looks a lot like him. What’s French for Jesus? Jerry Lewis. Hey, lady! d’Arnaud’s mixed league ready right now. The Mets could find that he needs a couple of weeks in the minors in April just to make sure his PCL is healed, but I highly doubt him not being up by May 1st. I’m gonna give him a line of 40/16/56/.283/3 in 375 ABs.
Ty Wiggington – Signed with the Cards to be a bench bat/insurance for when Allen Craig or David Freese are hurt. This doesn’t mean much for fantasy, except Matt Adams just fell a bit on the depth chart. Now we need Freese and Craig to get injured at the same time. So, now we’ll see Adams in May. I’m only 37% joking. Unless they both get injured and Wiggy is asked to play 1st and 3rd simultaneously. I suggest he lobs throws across the diamond.
Anibal Sanchez – Tigers re-signed him (her?). First clue that I’m human, when I heard I was sitting on the same stool that was once used by a 90-year-old woman to sit on while showering, I shuddered. Second clue that I’m human, I loved Anibal going into last year. Through two months, he had a 2.57 ERA and looked primed for a break out. Things fell apart in June when he posted a 7.06 ERA and a 3.99 BB/9, easily his wildest month. During the month of June, Anibal averaged a 91+ MPH, which is around what he throws, but his location was all over the map. Not sure if he was struggling with mechanics — you said it would only be $170 to fix the taillight! — but he righted the ship as the season went on, and ending up having a 2.43 ERA in September. A bigger concern is he threw his fastball a lot less in 2012 and lost any strikeout gains he made in 2011. He looks like a number two to (stutterer!) three fantasy starter and, unlike going into last year, I don’t see the number one fantasy upside. For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 13-9/3.92/1.28/180.
Mike Pelfrey – Twins signed him to a one-year deal. They’ve now added Pelfrey, Vance Worley and Kevin Correia. The Twins have succeeded in their offseason goal to boost their hitters’ confidence in split squad games.
In a trade of Anibal for Jesus Montero, roughly equal keeper costs (10$ of a 260 budget) Who would you rather? Or are neither keepers at that price?
@Nelson santovenia: Montero, barely a keeper at $10… Though I’m not sure of your other options…
where is the link for the next great fantasy baseball writer? I think there needs to be a contest.
@Justin: There’s no contest for the baseball side of things (yet)…
@Grey:
hopefully soon!!!!
So I’be been planning on keeping dickey for the 13′ season but I’m not so sure with him leaving that great pitchers park. If you could only keep two pitchers of these guys who would you go with? (Keep in mind we field 5 pitcher spots with no specific closer spot)
Choices are dickey, Chapman, Cain, wainwright
@matt: Chapman and Cain, it’s not close…
@Grey: thanks for the input. I like the upside of aroldis for the long term, but feel like i may have to temper my expectations for this season, seeing as how he’ll be hard pressed to go deep into games. If he truly does become a starter it’ll be like watching strasburg. Expecting 6 innings tops. 7 innings when he’s very efficient.
I’ve never been a huge fan of Cain, but the numbers are hard to argue with. I just keep looking at dickey and thinking that he’s likely to put up a bunch of complete games. That may be true now more then ever with him going to the AL and not having to bat. That probably buys him 10-15 more pitches per game over Cain.
I also feel like Dickey would be less likely to have arm problems then Cain based on everyone saying that the knuckler isn’t as damaging to throw. Cain’s also logged alot of innings over the past 7 years averaging over 200. One could argue that this makes him safe bet to continue the trend, but it makes me paranoid that this is the year it finally breaks down…
Anyone could break down… Cain could, Dickey could, anyone… I wouldn’t throw back a keeper like Cain because he could break down… Aroldis was a top 10 pitcher for baseball last year as a reliever, I’d gamble on his upside over Dickey in the AL…
@Grey: true. I tend to over analyze.
@Grey: Cain is a horse, literally…
Dickey might be a horse too (that’s what she said!), but I trust Cain more…
Looks like we were both wrong Re: Survivor. One of the more bitter juries, as a whole.
@Awesomus Maximus: Who did you have? I was surprised Lisa didn’t deliver more votes… The jury seemed to like her, and fairly impartial to Denise… I actually thought it was between Skulpin and Lisa… Overall, very solid season though, which I’m happy about after the One World’er… Who do you think is coming back for Favorites next year?
@Grey: I had Skupin… wife had Malcom… we all bombed out. I think Denise must have played an incredible social game (had meaningful conversations) with lots of different groups of people. We didn’t really get to see that because it doesn’t make for good television and it’s something that happens over time, not just in one shot. That’s the only thing that makes sense to me, because it was a landslide.
I didn’t think Lisa would get any votes, to be honest. She was smiling and having a good time, and a bitter jury never wants to see that.
Very strong season, and a pretty good finale (weak reunion, though). Denise isn’t my kind of winner — I prefer more scheming types (the kind who orchestrate torch snuffing) — but I guess if you don’t HAVE to get your hands dirty, there’s no reason to. She got bloody when she needed to (final four) so she played a good overall game and certainly deserves the title.
As crazy as it sounds, I could see Ozzy coming back yet again. Wouldn’t be surprised if Malcom went back into the fray immediately after… he seemed awfully disappointed. Maybe Cochran?
If you’re right about Denise playing a great social games with convos (which I do think you’re right), then my thought all along how the jury’s questions and final tribal don’t really mean anything… People have their minds made up going in… Ozzy won’t be returning. Probst said in an interview that it will only be favorites who have only been on once… No returning players who have been on 3 or 4 times… I’m guessing definitely Malcolm… Maybe even Lisa (though this would surprise me)…
@Grey: I think it depends on the jury and season. There have been a fair share of close final votes, and good/bad showings at final tribal certainly seemed to win/lose one or two votes for a player.
Then you have the jury members who say they came to final tribal without knowing who they’ll vote for. I don’t believe them most of the time, but it’s probably true in some cases.
When it’s a landslide then I agree, the final tribal means nothing. And looking back, you could tell that these people already had their minds made up. I mean, the opening statement explains why the player thinks they deserve the million dollars… and then at least 1/3 of the jury asked, “Why do you deserve my vote tonight?” Another 1/3 just ground their personal axe, and the last 1/3 had a mostly pointless rant. The jury didn’t really test anyone… probably because they didn’t care.
Yeah, that’s all probably true… I just thought going in last night all of them had a chance, so I was surprised when it didn’t seem like they did… I would’ve liked to hear from Penner why he voted for Denise when it seemed like he was friendly with Lisa and Skulpin to a degree… But, as you said, the reunion wasn’t very illuminating….
@Grey: I had Denise. She was on the bottom of every tribe–that got her creds.
When Lisa said that she just “ran, fell down, and ran some more,” well, that didn’t speak to playing the game.
Skupin made a good case for being a target, but, face it, he’s no Boston Rob and they weren’t going to let a previous player win.
Malcolm appears a shoe in for next.
@simply fred: Yeah, Lisa knew she had no shot at winning, and doesn’t seem to have it in her to fake it very well.
Turned out it didn’t matter what Lisa said… Could you look into the email I sent you?
@Grey: On the surface, it did seem like it could be anyone’s game… I chalk that up to good production/editing.
I was a little surprised Penner didn’t vote for Skupin. He seems to be a guy who appreciates more active strategy, and at least Skupin had a hand in orchestrating some throat cutting. Lisa was flying blind and Denise was treading water, for the most part. Maybe Penner was too busy writing his speech to put any real thought into his vote…
@Awesomus Maximus: I think it really came down to what you originally said. Denise had meaningful conversations over a long period of time, and there was no way to show that…
IM IN A 15 TEAM LEAGUE WTIH LOTS OF POSITIONS TO FILL… IS IT EVER A GOOD IDEA TO NOT DRAFT ANY CLOSERS AND JUST GO FOR THERE BACKUPS LATER… GIVES ME A BETTER LINUP AND BETTER SPS
I’d draft at least one closer…
I’ve got to choose between keeping Wainwright or Medlen next season (NL only league, standard pitcher stats) – I am leaning towards Wainwright, but it’s hard to let go of Medlen. Wainwright is certainly the safer pick, and now that he’s fully recovered I could see him doing something like 16/3.25/1.2/200 (220 IP), which is great.
On the other hand, once he began starting games last year, Medlen pitched like vintage Halladay – his K/BB rate was unreal. As a Braves fan I watched just about ever Medlen start last year, and it looked like a combination of legitimate improvement and some luck. Here’s my guess for 2013: 15/3.1/1.1/170 (200 IP). That might sound optimistic, but Medlen’s career ERA/WHIP is 2.85/1.11… in other words, he’s been really excellent, albeit never over a full season of starting pitching.
Your thoughts?
I agree with what you’re saying, and I think Wainwright is safer, and would lean towards him depending on my other keepers…
D’arnaud sats in las vegas is not much different then arencibia’s. Las vegas scews stats
arencibia’s minor league stats
2005-Present:
Year Team League AVG G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI TB BB SO SB CS OBP SLG OPS
2007 AUB NYP .254 63 228 31 58 17 1 3 25 86 14 56 0 0 .309 .377 .686
2007 Minors .254 63 228 31 58 17 1 3 25 86 14 56 0 0 .309 .377 .686
2008 DUN FSL .315 59 248 38 78 22 0 13 62 139 11 46 0 0 .344 .560 .904
2008 NH EAS .282 67 262 32 74 14 0 14 43 130 7 55 0 0 .302 .496 .798
2008 Minors .298 126 510 70 152 36 0 27 105 269 18 101 0 0 .322 .527 .850
2009 LAS PCL .236 116 466 67 110 32 1 21 75 207 26 114 0 1 .284 .444 .728
2009 Minors .236 116 466 67 110 32 1 21 75 207 26 114 0 1 .284 .444 .728
2010 LAS PCL .301 104 412 76 124 36 1 32 85 258 38 85 0 0 .359 .626 .986
2010 Minors .301 104 412 76 124 36 1 32 85 258 38 85 0 0 .359 .626 .986
I think d’arnaud will be similar to arencibia when he comes up. I love the over hype of top notch catchers….a la wieters
d’Arnaud walks more, strikes out less and has better speed, so he should have a slightly higher BABIP, and a higher average…
trade dilema…in my h2h 12-team league with a heaving scoring focus on pitching (premium on k’s with a weekly innings limit) we keep 14 total players (no penalty). i have 15 solid keepers including the best rotation in the league and the best lineup and whatever pitcher i drop will likely be the first player taken in the draft. should i trade gallardo+wainwright for weaver to be my #3 or 4 SP? Is weaver a fantasy ace whereas those guys aren’t?
Eh, don’t love that trade…
Grey, first time post, long time reader, thanks for the enjoyable writing!
NL Only Roto Keeper League, can keep up to 4.
Posey 15
Howard 11
Harper 11
Samarzdjia 2
Wainwright $6 for one year or $11 for two years
Lohse 4 (if in NL)
Belt $6 for one yr or $11 for two years.
Posey and Harper are no brainers. Wainwright for one or two years? Then Howard or Samardjia? Thanks!
Thanks for the kind words! Posey, Harper, Wainwright for one year, Samardzija…
Curious why $2 Samardzjia over $11 Howard? Do you not think Howard will be healthy enough to hit 30+ HR’s/100+ RBI’s?
And Wainwright for only 1 year because of free agency risk, health concerns or $11 for two years isn’t great value?
Thanks!
And hit .240… I went over Samardzija and the other day… http://razzball.com/jeff-samardzija-2013-fantasy-sleeper/ Wainwright at $11 isn’t terrific for right now…
Hi Grey,
In a 10 AL only Keeper league, I’ve got all the following starters at $5 for next year. Could you tell me which ones you’d keep and rank them in whatever way you think is useful.
Hector Santiago
Tom Milone
Hisahi Iwakuma
Erasmo Ramirez
Jeremy Guthrie
Felix Dubront
Franklin Morales
Doubront, Milone, Iwakuma…
Dickey passes physical. Can’t begin to imagine what was involved.
Guffaw, guffaw.
Ha! The hernia test gives a new meaning to the knuckleball…
@Grey: Would you consider Jose Bautista be a first round pick in a standard h2h 12 man league? I dont think I would mind getting him if i had a late pick in first round …
Nah, he’s not a first rounder at this point…
I am pretty sure that the worthless Twins could finish in last place with or without losers like Pelfrey or Correira. I live in MN and this team has become a joke.
But you have Pedro Florimon Jr.!
@Bob:
There will be a lot of licking in Minnesota next season.
Grey :
current computer connection prevents me from displaying my amazing cut and paste abilities ,but if you head on over to cbssports.com (baseball) , there’s an interesting article on pitcher
head-gear being developed and tested by Unequal Technologies and MLB .
The cap insert weighs 4.3 ounces .
am thinking that the wispy little guys (like the freak) might get their timing thrown off .
on the other hand , the kevin mench types might not even notice the difference .
Interesting… Maybe it will be what The Freak needs to right his ship… It’ll counterbalance the gusty winds in San Fran…
I like this move for the Jays. I realize there’s a good chance they will end up regretting it, but I love that they are going for it. I think it is worth the risk.
Yeah, I don’t think it’s terrible for the Jays to go for it with the Sox and Yanks looking beatable for the first time in a while, but I also think the Mets made a good move… Dare I say, it’s a smart move by both teams…
@Grey: With the jays recent moves how would you rank all of the ALE teams right? Given its still the offseason and some moves are still left to be down by clubs…. Also What do you think about these first 4 picks in a Mock : 1. Prince Fielder 2 Curtis Granderson 3 David Ortiz 4 Gio Gonzalez
Jays, Yankees, Rays, Sox… I think Ortiz is way too early… And don’t love Grandy in the 2nd either…
King Grey,
Very DEEP league with contracts. Roster maneuverability is enormous! All four of these players require them to stay on my roster for the entire 2013 season, unless I buy them out (very costly, though I have the flexibility).
Russell Martin
Adam Lind
Brennan Boesch
Nick Markakis
What are your fantasy thoughts on these guys? I have the opportunity to eat one/some of these guys in an effort to get my desired players in a trade.
Regarding the value of a catcher, it’s a daily lineup league, so it helps to have some catching depth. On the other hand, catchers don’t put up the offense numbers like other positions, so when they go in slumps or just plain suck I want the ability to not have that guy eat a roster spot.
Besides Markakis, I wouldn’t want any of them, but I’m not completely clear on their prices…
No comment on Drew to the Sox??? Trying to figure out if I should keep in for next year…… projected stat line????
I wouldn’t keep him in just about any league, but I don’t know your options…
keep him
@Grey: Ok so you dont like my first 4 picks even though i think the 3 hitters i picked would be solid bats in terms of HR. What do you think about the rest of this mock:
Fielder
Granderson
David Ortiz
Gio Gonzalez
Rollins
CC Sabathia
BJ Upton
Latos
Mccann
Fernando Rodney
Tim Hudson
Emilio Bonifacio as my 2b …
Jim Johnson
Torri Hunter
Chase headley ( 15th round )
Jarrod Parker
Drew Stubbs
Alcides Escobar
Nick Markakis
Casey Janssen
Luke Gregerson
Cory Luebke
Tyler Colvin
This was a 12 man draft i had 12 pick and there was about 6-8 guys there. What do u think Strengths/Weaknesses? ? ?
I didn’t say I didn’t like the first 4 picks… You don’t need Gio, CC and Latos… It’s too much pitching in a 12 team league… You also look very light on average and heavy on speed…
@Grey: Would you rather Granderson or Bautista ?
Bautista
Nice post but not sure about this bit:
” I think his Ks are going to fall a bit closer to his career average. Give him say a 7+ K-rate instead of a 8+ K-rate, and, due to Metco suppressing homers a tad more than Rogers, I’m going to bump up his ERA a bit.”
Doe Metco only suppress homers a TAD more than Rogers? I’d have thought it’s like hitting on the moon compared to Metco. Rodgers was one of the best hitters parks in the majors last year I thought, whereas Metco still looked a tough place to hit last year (or maybe its because Wright and Davis are the only proper hitters the Muts have).
Rogers is a hitters park and Metco is a pitchers park, but homers alone were close to neutral between the two parks last year. Over the last three years, Rogers gave up more homers, but Metco moved in the fences last year, so it’s hard to say which is which… It’s fair to say Rogers is a lot better for hitters, but only a tad better for homers due to how last year played…