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The walks weren’t really an issue when Francisco Liriano was striking out twenty-seven guys a game.  He walked to the mound and you knew you were getting 10 Ks.  Maybe nothing else.  But you got ten Ks.  Even if he faced only nine batters.  The scorer would give him an extra one just because he was Francisco Liriano.  His numbers since Frank Jobe surgery are disturbing.  Disturbing like one of those Discovery Channel shows where they show plastic surgery gone wrong.  Liriano’s throwing his slider less (his old strikeout pitch) and chucking up salamis, pitch after pitch.  Could he be laying off the slider because of the surgery?  My guess is yes.  *pointing my index finger at you*  That is my guess.  He looked like he turned a corner when we hit May and K’d nine Tigers.  Could it be the old Liriano, you pondered while nestled in your woobie.  Alas, it was not.  The old Liriano’s in a medical waste bin outside Dr. James Andrews’s office.  Liriano’s now consistently showing himself to be a 7 to 8 K/9 pitcher instead of the 10+ he was prior to surgery.   He’s at 6.04 ERA on the year, but I think he should get that down to a 4.25 by the end of the year.  But it’s a far cry from the 2.16 of 2006.  A far cry, friend.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Mark Reynolds – 4-for-9, 2 HRs, 5 steals.  Get on the mini-donkey-donkey… Could he become the first player to 10/10 on the season?  Do you really care if he bats .240?  Is Mark Reynolds not King-Sire of our land and everyone else is simply called, Not Mark Reynolds?  Where were you when Mark Reynolds was suckling from his mother’s teat?  Reynolds’s straw reaches across the room to drink your milkshake.  He drinks it up!  He drinks your milkshake!  Did you think your song and dance and superstition would help you when Mark Reynolds wasn’t on your fantasy team?  He’s smarter than you!  Chris Davis is a false prophet!  Aramis Ramirez is a false prophet!  Reynolds is a revelation!  Reynolds is King-Sire of this land and he calls it Mini-Donkeyville.  Bow down.

Joey Votto – Reds will release his tests on Thursday.  Hopefully, it’s not a press conference.  Press conferences are never a good sign.

Edinson Volquez – Will miss a start because he’s suffering from lower back spasms.  He should totally sit in one of those massage chairs at Brookstone.  They are so comfy.

Grady Sizemore – Supposedly he’s battling a sore elbow.  Indians player does poorly (V-Mart ’08), they blame the elbow.  What’s in the water in Cleveland?  Actually, don’t answer that.

Justin Upton – 2 HRs, one steal.  He hits moonshots.  Moon.  Shots.  He’s one of my regrets this year.  I pegged him as a sleeper.  Talked him up.  And here I am with Fred Freakin’ Lewis.  Damn you, Fred!  You lied to me!

Nelson Cruz – HR yesterday.  Doode’s super streaky.  You need to just ride the waves.  Sometimes they’re high.  Sometimes they’re low.

Wandy Rodriguez – 7 IP, 1 ER, 5 Ks.  Get on the Wandwagon!

Chris Sampson – Got another save.  Honestly, I have no idea if LaTory Hawkins will be back tomorrow or never.  With closers, react now, ask questions later.  Pick up Sampson for desperation saves.

Aaron Harang – 7 IP, 1 ER, 9 Ks.  Looks like the ugly 2008 that’s in his rearview mirror is not closer than it appears.

Scott Kazmir – 4 1/3 IP, 7 ER.  The A’s’s offense is terrible and they’re worse against lefties, batting .198 on the season.  Further, the Rays bullpen stepped in and only gave up one hit in the last 4 and two-thirds of the game.  I’m benching Spaz until further notice.  In 10 team leagues, I could see dropping him.

Yovani Gallardo – 5 IP, 6 ER.  After having his last start shortened because of rain, he looked rusty.  Rain will do that.

Jorge De La Rosa – 3 2/3 IP, 7 ER.  ¡Naranjas en la cabeza!  That great control George of the Rose showed was gone and so was all his promise.

Matt Harrison – 5 IP, 5 ER.  Apparently it was a bad night to be a crappy pitcher.

Javier Vazquez – 5 IP, 0 ER.  Hey, Bobby Cox has been reading Razzball!  He dropped a preemptive strike on Javy’s One Bad Inning Syndrome™ by removing him in the fifth after 71 pitches.

Omar Infante – Broken hand that coincided with Kelly Johnson’s hot streak.  Thinking he might’ve Tonya Hardy’d him.  Pure speculation!

Chris Jakubauskas – 6 IP, 0 ER.  He’s not a worth a pickup outside a 20 team league that only uses Mariners.  BTW, you think he ever misspells his own last name?

Ervin Santana – 6 1/3 IP, 1 ER.  Much better start obviously and a good opportunity for you to trade him away.

Kevin Kouzmanoff – HR yesterday.  You look at his season numbers and you think blech, but he’s been good of late.  If you need a corner, he’s worth a shot.

Paul Konerko – Two games, two homers.  Another corner guy that is currently hot.

Gil Meche – 6 IP, 2 ER.  As I mentioned yesterday in my pitchers who should be better thingamajiggywitit, I’m suddenly a fan of Meche.  If he’s on waivers, you pick him up.

Philip Hughes – 5 IP, 3 ER, 9 Ks vs. the Orioles.  Last start was 5 IP and 3 ER too.  Start before that, he gave up eight earned in one and two-thirds to the Orioles.  Oh, and Wang’s up on Friday.  Confused yet?  Yeah, me too.

Nolan Reimold – HR yesterday off Mo Rivera.  Now we’re cooking with gas.  If Reimold gets hot, you might be able to ride him for a week or two then sell him high.

Wilkin Ramirez – HR yesterday as he filled in for Clete Thomas against a lefty.  I know I mentioned this before, but this is really comical to me (which is to say boring and not actually comical), but Leyland hit Wilkin third because that’s where the guy he was replacing was hitting who was only hitting third because he was replacing the three hole hitter.  So can anyone manage the Tigers now that we have a set lineup card?  Did Leyland misplace his blank lineup cards and he’s Xerox’ing?  Seriously, this is mind boggling.

Brad Ziegler – Got the save yesterday.  I think this was because Bailey threw 44 pitches the day before.  But it shows us that Ziegler isn’t completely out of the picture.

David Ortiz – Someone located their stash of HGH.  Trade. Him. Now.

Chris Carpenter – 5 IP, 0 ER.  Exactly what you should hope for every time out.  Pray they don’t try and throw him more than 100 pitches for at least two months.

Daniel Murphy – Was assigned the Mets 1st baseman job vs. righties as he makes his first start there. Trial by fire, you say! I say, who cares?  This does nothing for his value.  Sheffield should see more time too.  Doesn’t really get me that excited about him either.

Jose Reyes – Aggravated his calf.  PETA will be paying him a visit.

  1. Gareth says:
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    Superb write-up as usual Grey.

    Some the other day, I think it was NoonTime, asked if anyone had had a worse day than 4-for-44. Yesterday I had 3-33 with 2R, 1RBI, and nothing else.

    For the week, I am 10-for-80, 6R, 1HR, 6RBI 2SB. With a lineup that consists of Sandoval, Gonzalez, A., Utley, Miggy, Han-Ram, Kemp, Sparkakis, Abreu, Ethier, Loney and Ibanez (naturally he was on the bench for his solo shot yesterday).

    My opponent (5×5) this week is 37-for-93 with 21R, 7HR, 23RBI and 2SB. He currently leads the match up 5-4. Thank you Francisco Liriano!

  2. DrEasy says:
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    Cito Gaston also subscribes to Leyland’s School of Non-Management. Vernon Wells shall hit clean-up all year, crappy or not crappy! And the way he left poor rookie Brett Cecil out there last night in the 5th inning while he kept giving up home runs (including one to Big Papi, that should have raised a flag!) was simply criminal.

    But the Jays are still leading the AL East, so we’re not allowed to criticize.

  3. Drev says:
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    Soto or Iannetta?

    Hawpe or Magglio?

  4. Joe Hatter says:
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    hey grey, long tim reader, first time poster.

    just giving you a heads up, i’ve been reading the blog for the whole season but for the last couple of days, my rss reader has been giving me this error:

    XML Parsing Error: not well-formed
    Location: file:///
    Line Number 94, Column 75:
    ————————————————————————–^

    …eveverything was just dandy until last week where i started getting that. any ideas?

  5. jp says:
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    i need to open a roster spot in my 11 team roto league to bring Youk back off the DL.

    should i drop loney or laroche (as youk can play either corner IF spot)
    or
    should i drop a starting pitcher
    my staff is santana, peavy, j johnson, lackey, wainwright, myers, jurjens, hanson.

    who’d go-hanson, jurjens, myers?

  6. Tony says:
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    so francouer for mark reynolds is a no brainer? I’d be dropping french face….

    Cavs were a bad dream last night. Ugly finish. You lose 2 games all year at home and you’re gonna lose the first game in the playoffs? Will Lebron learn to shoot FT’s please? Can someone else other than Lebron make a damn shot!?

    I flip over to my tribe then, wood walks 3 straight in the bottom of the 9th. Daryl Cousins gives him a few “i feel sorry for you” strikes, and he somehow then K’s 3 guys in a row?! At least the tribe won, even tho it was just as UGLY as the cavs!

    And my 3rd, 4th, and 5th round picks didn’t play last night…. Kemp, Quentin, and Votto…. Unreal.

    Votto’s news is negative yet they’re disclosing the rest of the info today? I dont get it. This doesnt sound good.

  7. Tony says:
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    ahhh i see Reynolds is ranked #44 in yahoo now, i guess its a no brainer to snag him, i am sure some other doosh nozzle will get him before me tho since he had the night he did last night…

  8. Tony says:
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    @jp: id drop meyers? but thats just me, you’ve waited this long on tommy hanson can’t drop him now IMO, and jurjjens absolutely not.

  9. mikey boy324 says:
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    in regards to votto baker said after the game all the tests came back negative so hopefully he’ll be back in the lineup this weekend

  10. Tony says:
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    @mikey boy324: ya i saw that, i just dont understand why they say that, then say “we’ll disclose the results tomm” that just doesn’t make sense, disclose what? it was negative right?

  11. BigFatHippo says:
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    Nice Daniel Plainview, he’s day to day.

  12. mikey boy324 says:
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    @tony: it is a lil strange but i read this just a lil while ago in the dayton daily news:”One story I heard from inside the clubhouse is that as a kid Votto had a bad ear infection and that the flu he had a couple of weeks ago caused the infection-like symptoms to return – dizziness, lack of focus. Just somebody talking – not officials. Yet.”
    i think the reds just wanna find exactly whats wrong with him before they make any official statements or at least i hope so lol just think while hes been battling this he hit 2 hrs hopefully he fully recovers cuz i think hes gonna be a top 5 hitter in the nl this year

  13. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Hot Rumor: Chicago radio is reporting a Peavy to White Sox trade. Apparently they’re getting the information from San Diego media. They were stating it a done deal as far as the teams were concerned, but Peavy himself needs to sign off on it and word is he’s not real excited about becoming a South Sider. Sounds like he’s not a huge Ozzie fan.

  14. Marr says:
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    Bill Hall: 0-for-5, 4 K, now batting below .200 against RHP on the year, still isn’t a very good defender.

    Mat Gamel: 1-for1, 2B, 2 RBI

    Hm, Macha certainly has a mysterious plan going here…

  15. ScoutAbout says:
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    @Gareth: For the week I’m 23 for 91 with 5R, 1HR, 7RBI, and 0SB with a lineup of Sandoval, Howard, Utley, Peralta/Rollins (depends on match-up), Cantu, Kemp, Rios, Hart, and Ellsbury (with Votto mostly on my bench this week). I keep asking myself how I can have those numbers with this lineup. I’m hoping for a big weekend with all my lefty Phillies hitters in the Yankee ballpark this weekend.

  16. nick m. says:
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    kuroda or escobar for a DL stash?

  17. Tony says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: WOW i dont know if Peavy to CWS is a good thing or bad thing for Peavy? He gets a better offense, but enters US Cell and leaves Petco? He goes from facing a pitcher in the line up to a DH? Interesting… Peavy might VETO this… he wants to be a cub!

  18. Tony B. says:
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    Was really hoping for a Ziegler pounding last night to further enhance Bailey’s resume as possible closer replacement.

    I’m starting Alexei today b/c he is like 4-7 in his career versus Blackburn and he even mixed in a couple walks against him as well.

    Rollins, back to my bench for Felipe Lopez.

    Swisher was my sonofabench last night. It came down to Swish, Morales, and D. Lee for 2 spots and Swish made me pay.

    I didn’t watch the Indians last night, I heard Wood nearly blew it again.

    I also read where the Indians are shopping DeRosa with the Mets as possible partners. The Indians’ request, MLB ready starting pitching. Who the hell could you possibly acquire Shapiro? Ollie Perez? Mike Pelfrey? John Maine? Jon Niese? How about ship DeRosa back to Wrigley for Sean Marshall? Flip DeRosa to the Braves for some of their young talent? Jesus Christ, I hate playing armchair Shapiro on Thursday mornings.

    Like I said back in April, he should have went out and got Juan Pierre to play LF and bat leadoff, then signed Dallas MacPherson once the Giants released him and gave him a shot at 3B.

    Well last night, I traded Sizemore, Lincecum, and Soria for Miggy Cab, Dan Haren, Qualls, and Gordon. I needed a power 1B and got it and with McLouth and Granderson in my outfield, I felt I could afford to deal Sizemore. I might be nuts, but I don’t think Haren is too far off from Timmy this year, especially if he avoids a 2nd half slide. Soria and Qualls could end up being a wash and I’d rather go with the healthy closer on a good team versus the guy with shoulder problems going through his 2nd go-around in the A.L. as a closer.

    Today’s minor clubhouse diary entry goes like this…

    We had the Omaha Royals in last year, first series of the season…

    It was bitter cold, I’m talking 38-40 degrees at 7PM gametime, so we were brewing hot, steaming java all night long and the bench guys we’re constantly coming from the dugout into the clubhouse to stay warm and to get a fresh cup of Joe. By the 5th inning, these guys had smashed nearly all the pre-game spread and the only thing left were cookies and crackers, no meal type foods.

    Enter Jorge De La Rosa. He is supposed to be charting Kyle Davies but instead leaves the dugout and comes and finds us. Here’s 20, go get me a bunch of food from the concessions, I’m gonna hide out in your office til you get back, I can’t sit out there in that cold, no one will know I’m gone.

    We roll up to the concessions area and load up on pizza, hot dogs, pretzels, and nachos. We get back and the Omaha coaches ask if we’re having a party inside the clubhouse, I go, “yea sort of”. De La Rosa’s eyes lit up and he ate everything we got him in about 10 minutes, all the while the coaches are yelling for him. “Tell them I’m taking a shit and to get someone else for right now.” So we went with it – “He’s taking a shit, his stomach hurts, he’ll be out in a few!”

    “Thanks guys, wow that was good, lets do it again tomorrow.”

    Enjoy

  19. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Tony: I hope he veto’s this. I picked him because I was hoping in the back of my mind that he’d become a Cub this year. I love Peavy, and I love the Cubs. Peavy would be a god on the Northside. The White Sox are for the drunken likes to fight punks on the south side. Only the dregs of humanity are Sox fans…..oops…sorry bout that Mr. President. No offense, of course.

  20. Tony says:
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    @Tony B.: Great story again tony B, “smokeys taking a shiiiiiiit, smokey did you eat corn!?”

    @anyone: Start Wainwright vs. the Cubbies tonight?

  21. Tony B. says:
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    @Tony: Thanks, “you bet’ not tell nobody Ezel! Yes, I’m starting Wainy. He looked good last week after he found his mechanical flaw.

  22. Tony says:
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    hell the cubs are batting FUKEDOME 3rd? and he’s the only guy hitting over .300 in that line up….

    no aramis and DLEE is bumming…. I think i have to start wainwright. 12 team H2H league only need 32 innings and i have 21 already with RP’s going and Haren vs. Oak tomm or sat i dont know…

  23. Neil says:
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    A quick trade question for a fellow fan of Mark “The Sheriff” Reynolds:

    Keeper league (12 teams). Standard 5×5
    I am 4th in runs, 7th in HR, 7th in RBI, 11th in AVG and 2nd in SB

    I was offered Granderson for BJ Upton. The guy who offered me Granderson is last in AVG and struggling in steals, so it looks like a great trade for him because he’s giving up on AVG and he’s going to gain a lot of steals.

    As for me, I feel that Granderson (going forward) will outperform Upton in AVG, RBI and HR while costing me steals. The runs will be a tie.

    I want to make the trade because I think the extra HR/RBI/AVG will help me in the standings more than the steals. Would you do it?

  24. Tony says:
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    @Tony B.: what a great movie, i watched the VHS i had of it so many times in college it doesn’t play anymore…. “because its friday, we aint got no jobs, an we aint got shit to do”

  25. ScoutAbout says:
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    @Tony B. Yeah, I plugged Alexei into my UTIL slot today (with Votto out, why not?). And it the Mets had MLB ready starting pitching wouldn’t they be trotting that out already? I hope you are right and that Haren avoids a 2nd half slide. He’s my ace and I’ve been thinking about trying to deal him now. Dunno. But enjoyed your story.

  26. I think Upton will get more HR/RBI from here. Definitely HRs. And, is Granderson even that much of an AVG bump?

  27. Tony B. says:
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    @Tony: One of the best comedy movies ever, up there with Caddyshack.

  28. Tony B. says:
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    @ScoutAbout: Haren’s good for now, but if I see any signs come late July, I won’t hesistate to move him for another SP.

  29. and1mcgee says:
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    i love the J.D. Salinger reference………

  30. Gareth says:
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    @ScoutAbout: That is sucktastic. Awesome!

  31. Neil says:
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    Granderson is shaping out to be a steady 10% BB, 20% K, 19% line drive, 80% overall contact player. That looks like .275 or so

    Upton is all over the place, but he is showing himself to be a 30% K player, 19% line drive, 77% contact. Upton did hit .300 and .275, but it took a .400 and a .351 BABIP.

    However, BJ Upton puts the ball on the ground a LOT more than Granderson. There shouldn’t be a big difference in AVG between the two, but with me in the basement in AVG and this Upton going 1-9 every two days, I’d sooner bet on higher AVG from the guy with better K% and contact #s.

  32. Tony says:
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    @Tony B.: Yep use to watch FRIDAY and HALF BAKED about every day for a while there…. haha

    and whats funny is didn’t and still dont smoke weed!

  33. mc serch says:
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    Quick question guys, now that Jh. Peralta has 3B eligibility, how do you rate him, Blaylock and Lowell for the remainder of the season at that position?
    Also, with Posada ready to come off the DL, I don’t know what to do with Ianetta, who has heated up over the past few weeks (which is to say he’s not brick flippin’ cold anymore). Should I hold Ianetta for a week or so after Posada comes back as insurance, or do I offer him and Joba now for, say, Soria/Duchscherer?
    Great story Tony B! Keep’em coming. I’m starting to look forward to your posts in addition to Grey’s round-ups each morning.

  34. Tony B. says:
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    @mc serch: Thanks

    @Tony: Same here

  35. Tony B. says:
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    @mc serch: Lowell, Blalock, Peralta

    I’d hold onto Ianetta for a while, Posada is no sure thing to stay healthy or even make 4-5 starts a week, who knows how they are gonna rest him and use him.

  36. Neil says:
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    The best part about Jhonny is that he qualifies at SS, making him an elite HR/RBI source at that position. Why use him at 3B, where he is outgunned by so many more hitters? If you had a Hanley/Reyes/Rollins at SS, then I would trade Jhonny. It doesn’t make sense to use him at 3B (unless you’re shuffling due to injuries)…it’s like using Sandoval at 3B instead of C.

  37. Mann of Sandd says:
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    Ibanez/Lowe for Halladay/Jenks is not happening at this time, so in a 14 team mixed keeper, would anyone here move (dollar values in parenthesis) Ibanez (31) and Doumit (4) for McCann (22), Wainwright (22), and Frank Francisco (7)? Try to upgrade Francisco for K-Rod (30)?

  38. Tony says:
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    @Neil: 3B is thinner than SS if you ask me, was to start the year and with Aramis down it got that much thinner…. I think Johnny there is as and maybe more valuable than SS, IMO….

  39. Dumbmutt says:
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    Anyone starting Jackson – TEX?

  40. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Neil: Very interesting. Any info/educated guesses on where the Other Upton ends up this year?

  41. Anthony G says:
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    I am convinced that Mark Reynolds is better than Chris Davis. I had reynolds then traded him and now have Chris Davis. Should I now go back and trade reynolds for Davis? Should I ask for more since I have Davis and he gets love in a lot of circles?

    For the love of god I hope jackson gets pounded in texas.

  42. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Anthony G: Is Jackson going to get pounded in Texas on his next visit? Pounded by what? He’s pitching in Detroit today.

    Say no Peavy….Say no Peavy….Say no Peavy….Just say NO!

  43. royce! says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: I hope he vetoes it as well. From what I’ve read, he has reemphasized his desire to remain in the NL, but also said that the deal was “something to think about.” My hope is that he doesn’t want to veto the trade outright in order to avoid looking bad in the press. From a Padres fan’s perspective, who cares where he ends up, as long as the return is good?

    Moreover, nothing that my wife has said was “something to think about” has ever happened. So that’s how I’m going to read this. And not just because I have great tickets for Saturday’s game versus Harden and the Cubs.

  44. ron mexico's papi says:
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    Mark Reynolds….SONUVABENCH!

  45. Neil says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins:

    I never really paid much attention to J. Upton because I always felt he would be a low AVG guy…at least this year. He strikes out as much as his brother (29% this year, 34% last year, 26% in 2007 and around 20% in the minors) and his overall contact rates are very poor (67% this year, 68% last year). His 20% line drive is nice but his HR/fly ball seems a bit high at 22%. I don’t want to be the one to throw cold water on the guy…I made plenty of bad picks this year (Sizemore, Quentin, BJ Upton) but let’s compare him to mighty Jack Cust (2009):

    Cust is striking out less than J. Upton (28% K), hitting the same % of line drives, making better contact (73%) and both guys have the same line drive/ground ball/fly ball split (more or less 21%/34%/45%). But Cust is at .261 and Upton is at .313.

    Crazy…

  46. john says:
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    The rest of the year: Wainwright or Wendy Rodriquez
    Gallardo or F-Her
    also: I offered Johnny Damon and F-Her for D Wright and E. Santana. Fair trade?

  47. Jobu's rum says:
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    @Tony B.: Another great narrative. Not since my nephew’s soccer game have I found a concession stand that could tender so much bounty for a mere $20. God, I wish Wrigley had that ability…. (Btw, I think I got ur team).

    I’m calling it now — I’ve had Ryan Madosn for weeks thinking that Lidge might implode. Well, this morning I decided to drop him for Chris Sampson (SAGNOF for a hot minute). This means Madson will somehow become Philly’s closer tonight.

  48. Pops says:
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    ******ESPN Reporting that Jake Peavy dealt to the White Sox

  49. mc serch says:
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    @Neil: Yeah, I’m shuffling cause I have A-Ram on my DL. Basically at this point I have Peralta, Alexei and Blaylock to cover 3B and SS until A-Ram comes back (if he comes back). Lowell is on waivers but it seems like overkill to have 4 guys man those two positions — esp. since i’m hopeful that Alexei will heat up with the weather. I guess it really comes down to Blaylock vs. Lowell for spot starts and insurance in case Alexei continues to defecate on his duvet.

  50. mikey boy324 says:
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    grey what is your projections for justin upton going foward?

  51. Mike says:
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    If something is seriously wrong with Votto (god forbid), who plays 1B for CIN? Do they bring up Yonder Alonso? The kid has loads of talent but is only in A-ball, right?

  52. Tony says:
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    @john: NO. The wright owner is going to laugh in your face. Arguably the best 3B in baseball, hitting out of his mind right now, for damon and “king” felix who just got shelled?

    not the best time to propose this either….

  53. Tony B. says:
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    @Jobu’s rum: Gotta love minor league concession prices and the perks of knowing the staff…

  54. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Pops: Everyone’s reporting that Peavy’s been traded…..however he still has the right to say no. It’s only 7:53 on the West Coast right now….it could be awhile before a concrete answer.

    ESPN can’t always be trusted. They’ve made a huge amount of blunders with their NFL rumors. They try too hard to be the first. They’re more interested in making news now instead of reporting it.

  55. Neil says:
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    @mc serch:

    I like Lowell a lot (in fantasy). He has tremendous contact rates (over 88% during the last four years, 92% this year). Add that to a good K% (12%) and a good line drive % (20-22%) and the AVG should stick at around .295. His HR/FB rate is fine and he will give you lots of RBI. He will struggle with runs because of a really poor BB% and hitting deep in the lineup, but he should continue to hit .290+ with tons of RBI and I bet he finishes the season at around 23-25 HR. Assuming he is healthy.

    Jhonny looks like he’s struggling now…I would use Lowell over him. Lowell has the injury risk, but he will kill Jhonny in AVG and the BoSox lineup and park is so very sweet. I can only see Jhonny besting Lowell in runs, with HR/RBI being a wash (assuming Jhonny wakes up and starts hitting).

  56. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Neil: I’m no statistician. And I don’t get to see Upton much beyond highlights. But the dude was a one man wrecking crew last night and he was on my roster.

    It’s way the hell too early to be putting the 21 year old Upton into statistical boxes.

  57. john says:
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    Mixed Keeper(protect 10)$money leagu , 5×5-5×5. c,c,1,2,ss,3,ci,mi,of,of,of,of,of,x(any),x. Sp,Sp,Sp,Sp,Sp,Sp,Rp,Rp,RP,P. 9 managers. I’m tired of F-her. my pitchers are liriano, Shields, Scherzer, F-Her, Johan, Wainwright, Meche, D Bush, Juan Cruz, Qualls, and Escobar on the DL. What type of offer do I make to the team that has Vasquez, Volquez, Verlander, Billingsley, Bedard, Maholm?

  58. Nick says:
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    @Grey: Do you still like Lowell over Reynolds as my 3B A Ram. replacement going forward? Also I have Reyes, do you stay put for now till maybe Saturday to make a decision about a backup for next week?

  59. Neil says:
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    @Frank Rizzo:

    Agreed. You can look at the numbers all you want, but they don’t tell you everything. Especially because guys play with injuries and don’t say anything (ahem…Grady). But he does strike out a lot…which is fine in real life because he’s a young guy who is developing. And all the experts say he is going to be a beast. I have no beef with J. Upton.

    But to be fair to me, it seems realistic that J. Upton will strike out at least 30% of the time this season. He is young and raw and aggressive. Let’s say a guy has 100 at bats and strikes out 30 times and puts the ball in play 70 times. In order for J. Upton to hit .300 in this scenario, he needs to get 30 hits out of the 70 times he puts the ball in play. That means that 43% of the time he actually puts the ball in play, he will get credited with a hit or HR. That sounds hard to do.

    I’m looking at 2009 MLB players with a 30% K rate. I see Hall, Fielder, Howard, Jacobs, BJ Upton, Swisher, JD Drew, lots of guys. With the exception of J. Upton, Branyan, J. Flores, all of them are hitting under .285. D. Wright is hitting .360+ with a 27% K rate, but he has a .486 BABIP. Wow!

    But again, AVG is fluky (I built my team around it and am in 11th place!) and if you like what you see when you watch the guy, go for it.

  60. mc serch says:
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    @Neil: Yeah, I can’t disagree with your analysis. The thing with Peralta is that he provides me with excellent insurance for Alexei. I really can’t let him go at this point. So do I drop Blalock for Lowell? They kind of seem like a wash to me cause as good as Lowell’s park and line up is I think Blalock’s might be as good or better. Both guys seem to produce much better at home than on the road. Both guys have injury risks (although maybe Blalock’s risk is mitigated by being full-time DH). Lowell hits for better avg. but Blalock has better power upside. Eh…I dunno.

  61. @Neil: It strikes me that you are over thinking this on BJ Upton and Granderson. I love Granderson and the Tigers are the team I get on TV, but I just think you’re over doing it with all the Babip, Ks, line drive stuff. I’m not trying to knock you for using the stuff, it just seems like you’re overdoing it.

    I mean, even with all you laid out, you admit there shouldn’t be a huge difference in AVG between the two. So, why trade for the guy with a LOT less potential?

    As for Justin Upton/Cust, it’s not crazy that they have the same ground ball/fly ball/contact/K rate, but Upton has the higher average. For Cust to have a better average he’s going to have to have definitely better numbers than Upton in those categories.

    A line drive from Justin Upton is absolutely not the same as a line drive by Cust. Not even close.

  62. mikey boy324 says:
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    votto update courtesy of the enquirer:
    Reds trainer Mark Mann just met with reporters in Dusty Baker’s office and gave the announcement regarding Joey Votto’s recent bouts with dizziness:

    Inner ear infection (left ear). Votto is on medication and will do some light workouts and hitting before the game today, then again tomorrow. Not in the lineup today, playing status day to day.

    Drs. Stephen Cleves (internist) and Reds medical director Tim Kremchek came to the conclusion that the inner ear infection had caused Votto’s dizziness, Mann said.

    Votto had some history of inner ear infections as a youth, Mann said. Votto underwent a battery of tests the past several days.

    “The only thing that came back irregular was the audiology test, indicating he had an inner ear infection,” Mann said. “That was secondary to the upper respiratory infection he had 10 days ago, which from I get from Dr. Cleves is a common occurrence,” Mann said.

    Votto was not immediately available to comment.

    Reds manager Dusty Baker said he was “thankful and grateful” with the news.

    “I’m just glad they found what it was, No. 1,” Baker said. “There was a lot of stuff floating around out there, a lot of neighborhood doctors.”

  63. Zebo says:
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    does Peavy take a huge hit going away from Petco, and away from NL to AL Chicago?

  64. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Grey – Great column, but that critique is from the Department of Redundancy Department.

    FYI – Currently ESPN having technical difficulties and unable to get to RCL site. But most of you probably know that already.

    Reynolds was one of the best bargains in the draft. I picked him up in two H2H leagues. Unfortunately, I had a glut of third basemen on one team, and traded him for Benjie Molina. Of course, I was matched against the team I traded him to last night, and now am in a big hole in SB. That is worse then getting SONAVABENCHED, and perhaps warrants a Razzball term.

    Ticker Teaser – The Marlins involved in two slugfests, and HamRam goes 0-9.

    Question for Grey or any astute Commenter: Is it time to cut bait with Jose Lopez? Is it worth picking up a hot Kelly Johnson off the waiver wire as a replacement? Rate these schmohawks – Lopez, K. Johnson, Iwamura, Callapso

    2nd question – Has Cecil shot his wad? Time to be thankful for the nice short run, and recognize that his minor league record was truth?

  65. uhhhjboy says:
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    In a 10-team league rank these Kazmir replacements for the rest of the year: Meche, Nolasco, Kershaw, Scherzer, or Wolf

  66. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @mikey boy324: That’s fantastic news. I’ve been there. Inner ear infections suck but antibiotics can kick it in a couple days.

  67. Mike says:
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    @uhhhjboy:

    Kershaw
    Scherzer
    .
    .
    .
    Meche/Nolasco/Wolf

  68. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Dumbmutt – I’m starting E. Jackson. Big difference from playing at home, then at Texas stadium. Jackson is one of the sleeper pitchers of 109.

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Gareth: Thanks!

    @Joe Hatter: What do you use for your reader?

    @Drev: Soto, Hawpe.

    @nick m.: Kuroda

    @Tony B.: Nice story.

    @Neil: I wouldn’t.

    @Mann of Sandd: Try to move why? You have to move them?

    @Dumbmutt: Not a great start.

    @Doc: @Pops: Wow! I wake up and Peavy’s on the Sox? Oh, man. Maybe if I go back to sleep he’ll be back on the Padres.

    @mikey boy324: Projections for just about everyone are in the rankings.

    @Mike: Reports are ear infection.

    @john: F-Her and Liriano for Bills? Not saying it’s good.

    @Nick: Go with Lowell or Reynolds depending on need. Stay put on Reyes.

    @Paulie Allnuts: Thanks, I think. Lose Lopez for KJ.

    @mikey boy324: Thanks for the update!

    *******Could you guys read comment #4 and tell me if you’ve had the same problem? Thanks!******

  70. Tony says:
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    @mikey boy324: IT TOOK THIS LONG AND THIS MUCH TESTING TO FIGURE OUT ITS AN EAR INFECTION? I FEEL WE’RE GOING BACKWARDS IN MEDICINE, WTF

  71. @Paulie Allnuts: I think Cecil is and will remain for the rest of the season a match up guy. Last night was not a good match up for him, and Cito Gaston left him much longer than necessary. I mean, not even a visit to the pitchers mound to calm him down after Papi FINALLY went yard and the crowd was going nuts. His command wasn’t great all game, but it completely disappeared after that. I think its a bit of a roll of the dice next time against Baltimore, because outings like last night can certainly stay with a young pitcher, but if he shakes this one off, I think he’ll continue to give you a 4ish ERA, 7+ K/9, and a good chance for the W, with the way the Jays offense has been swinging.

  72. Dumbmutt says:
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    Yeah I have him in as well. Was just that bad 2nd start of the year Apr 12 at home vs Tex but I guess you can’t sit him at this point.

  73. timSTi says:
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    @Grey 10 team 5×5. Looking for an improvement over Helton at CI. Have Pujols at 1b and Arod at 3b. Nick Johnson & Casey Blake are the top free agents statistically so far. Matt Gamel is available as well. Whatta you think? Or I have Drew on my D/L. Should I try to deal him for someone?

  74. Mann of Sandd says:
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    @Grey: Sorry that I was not more clear. I don’t have to move those guys, but my pitching could use an upgrade. Currently trotting out Greinke/Lowe and then it hits the disaster zone, with R. Johnson, Baker, Myers, Porcello, Rich Hill, Braden Looper, et. al. Have Stults and Kuroda on my bench, but I would like to upgrade by moving a bat.

    Only have 1 full time closer (Wood) and Soriano, so saves could use work too. Should have enough bats (A-Rod, Tex, Chipper, Cantu, Vlad, etc.) to withstand a loss of Ibanez.

  75. Lines says:
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    Hey All. Been reading Razzball since the start of the year, but this is my first time posting… so be gentle, please.

    Flouting the convention of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,” I just dropped Mike Lowell for Mark Reynolds. I looked at the projections, and it made sense. I know Reynolds has days where he couldn’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, but he’s got power and speed. Plus I figure Lowell will get hurt before the end of the year (he already runs like he’s got no feet). But Lowell’s on a good team, and Reynolds, well, he’s on the Diamondbacks.

    Someone tell me this wasn’t a terrible idea. Please?

    Grey, Rudy, et al.: Love the site, keep up the good work.

  76. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Grey – never had that problem myself. Sometimes issues getting on the site, but that clears up in 10 minutes time. But we discussed that already.

  77. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Would anyone out there drop Madson for Sampson?

  78. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Grey or astute commenter: please rate in order: Konerko, Helton, N. Johnson, J. Loney

    Thanks

  79. Neil says:
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    @Maitland:

    I’m not playing for potential or 2010, 2011, I’m playing for the next 18 weeks!

    I don’t see how I am overthinking. BJ Upton and Granderson are two different players with two different skill sets. ESPN likes them both…there’s only one round separating the two. I have a particular situation (strong in steals, weak in AVG, middle of the pack in everything else) and I wanted to know if that trade would benefit me.

    What’s great about fantasy baseball is that the numbers tell you so much. The tough part is determining what to do when a player is way above or below what the numbers (and their track record) suggest. If BJ Upton continues to maintain a 30%+ K rate with poor contact and lots of pop-ups, then he will continue to hit near .200. The tough part is figuring out why he is striking out so much (health, lack of spring training, issues in his personal life) and if/when he turns it around.

    “A line drive from Justin Upton is absolutely not the same as a line drive by Cust. Not even close.”

    What does that mean? Do you think J. Upton can maintain a .315 AVG with a 30% K rate? Maybe he will, but the numbers suggest otherwise. I would bet against .315. Can I be wrong, of course, but why play the game if you’re going to ignore the numbers? If you like J. Upton, great. I’m just saying that the AVG is inflated at the moment.

  80. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Lines: Personally, I wouldn’t have done it Lines. Reynolds is streaky and could go right into slumping Chris Davis style at any moment. Lowell is old but I’d consider him more dependable. JMO

  81. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @timSTi: Go with Blake.

    @Mann of Sandd: Move Ibanez for F-Her? Shields? Maybe Bills? Don’t think he gets you enough to be honest. You might be better moving Vlad or Chipper.

    @Lines: Not a terrible idea as long as you know what you’re getting with Reynolds and it sounds like you do. Don’t cut bait when he goes 0-for-30 with 29 Ks. And thanks for the kind words.

    @Paulie Allnuts: Thanks for responding.

    Konerko, Johnson, Helton…

    @IowaCubs: Sure

  82. ScoutAbout says:
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    @Gareth: As an addendum, the guy whose hitting is beating me this week has Iannetta, Jacobs, Uggla, Chipper, Callaspo, C. Lee, Abreu, Choo and Francoeur, with Quentin and J. Reyes on his bench. Some weeks you just gotta eat a shit sandwich.

  83. @Neil: If I had to guess, you’re playing for the last 8 weeks and not the next 18 weeks.

    I’m not saying Granderson is not close to BJ Upton. My point was mainly that they are close, but Upton has way more upside.

    What was BJs contact rate and K rate the last two years where he hit much higher than .200? I mean, do you really think if that was higher the last two years it won’t be higher at later points this year?

    Ultimately, I think the projections done at this site for Upton and Granderson are a good answer to your question. They’re both likely .275-.280 types and both are below that now. Upton is WAY below, so he’s likely to hit better on his way up.

    “What does that mean? Do you think J. Upton can maintain a .315 AVG with a 30% K rate? Maybe he will, but the numbers suggest otherwise. I would bet against .315. Can I be wrong, of course, but why play the game if you’re going to ignore the numbers?”

    I don’t think I’m ignoring the numbers. I just think you’re using the numbers wrong.

    I also never said that Upton will maintain a .315 average. Could he? Sure. But, I would have pegged him lower than that because he’s still 21 years old.

    What does it mean that Upton’s line drives aren’t the same as Cust’s?

    Well, simply, when the ball leaves Upton’s bat on a line drive and the ball leaves Cust’s bat on a line drive, which ball would you say is more likely to hit the ground? I mean, the answer is obviously Upton and by quite a bit…

  84. good morning grey….was offered tulo for werth, what are your thoughts?

    I have a rotation of Callaspo, Burriss, stewart, (weeks), Coghlan (will prob drop),

    My OF: CLee, Ells, werth, coco, k.morales, n.morgan, inge too

    Hes looking for R, SB…too much for tulo? would he even give me the consistency im looking for at ss or should i search elsewhere/keep on working the wire…..

    Thanks

  85. Eric H. says:
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    Need a fill-in for Joey Votto who has a freakin’ ear infection like a 7-year old.

    Who would you want — or should I say, who would you tolerate — as a replacement?

    Nick Swisher, Casey Kotchman, Adam LaRoche, Chris Duncan, Billy Butler.

    I am dire need of power. I’m OK in average/runs/SBs.

  86. Mr. Rickey says:
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    Worth dropping Chris Young for Ervin Santana? Also, which one of the following for the rest of the season: Vernon Wells, Alexi Ramirez, Sheffield.

  87. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mr. Rickey: I’d drop Young for Ervin in 10 team or smaller leagues. Alexei.

  88. Tom says:
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    Pregunta nemero uno: Should we think about picking up Happ, or is he crapp?

    Numero Dos: Ian Stewart for Andrew Bailey is fairly even? (I need some saves, but I don’t want to give up anything. In fact, I don’t know that this guy will even go for that)

  89. Paulie Allnuts

    Paulie Allnuts says:
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    @Grey: Is it worth taking a flyer on Josh Outman? If so, would you prefer him over Cecil at this point?

    Thanks, as always, for your prodigous service

  90. Dingo says:
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    @Paulie Allnuts: Am I missing something about Kelly Johnson? I’ve heard a few people refer to his recent “hot streak,” but I can’t seem to figure out what they’re talking about? He had a nice stretch from May 5th-13th where he hit .346, but he followed that up by hitting .214 over the following four games. Granted, I did just pick him up off the waiver wire because I expect him to play better and he fit a need, but I wouldn’t call him “hot” right now.

    @Neil: I think your analysis is solid, and I don’t see a problem with trading Upton for Granderson if you’ve got SBs to spare. Both are getting unlucky with balls in play, but Upton’s been hitting fewer LDs, so some of his crappy average has been earned. With Granderson’s track record of striking out less and hitting for more power, I think it’s reasonable to expect him to outperform Upton in every category besides steals. As a bonus, you can rest assured that Granderson’s not going to hurt himself in a brawl.

  91. Tom says:
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    Freakin Joey Votto. Didn’t an ear infection keep Sheets on the DL for 2 months a couple years back? I shall call him Joey Sheets. Actually, if I was a mobster with a kid, I WOULD name my kid Joey Sheets. He’d be a badass.

  92. Joel says:
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    If it weren’t for Fowler and Crawford, Reynolds’ 4 steals in one game would get a lot more attention. I think he set the record for most steals in a game by a fat guy.

  93. Tom says:
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    Oh Joey Sheets… so many connotations, both sexual and morbid. Great mobster name.

    Oh Grey, by the way, when will the Marlins give up on Coghlan, and when should I give up on Coghlan?

  94. Tony says:
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    @Tom:

    I GAVE UP A COUPLE DAYS AGO

  95. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Update on Peavy Trade:

    11:52am: ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick talked to Axelrod, who gave the impression that Peavy is leaning against accepting the trade:

    “If I had to make a bet on it, I would guess that Jake would say he’s not ready to take that step today. But he wouldn’t necessarily preclude it at any time in the future.”

    Peavy maintains his strong preference for the NL.

    (That’s good news for us Peavy owners and White Sox haters)

  96. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom: Happ’s worth a flier, trade seems fair. You should give up on Coghlan before the Marlins. I’d give him through the weekend though.

    @Paulie Allnuts: I’d prefer Cecil.

    @Frank Rizzo: Thanks for the update!

  97. Jobu's rum says:
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    @IowaCubs: I pulled that trigger this morning. I think it means Madson somehow becomes Philly’s new closer tonight. I’ve had some bad premature closer voodoo this year.

  98. Dingo says:
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    @Maitland:

    Ultimately, I think the projections done at this site for Upton and Granderson are a good answer to your question. They’re both likely .275-.280 types and both are below that now. Upton is WAY below, so he’s likely to hit better on his way up.

    I don’t want to fan the flames of a stat-battle, but this is actually a classic example of “using the numbers wrong,” as you put it. If both are likely .275-.280 guys, then they’re both likely to hit .275-.280 for the rest of the season. There’s no basis for expecting slumping hitters to go on hot streaks just so that their end-of-season stats end up where you expected them to be at the beginning of the season.

    Also, I’m confused about what you mean by the difference between Cust’s line drives and Justin Upton’s line drives. Are you saying that Upton’s simply better at hitting line drives away from fielders? Or that Cust has a more predictable hit pattern, so it’s easier for fielders to apply a shift on him?

  99. Mann of Sandd says:
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    @Grey: Thank you…so would you do Vlad and Looper for Wainwright and Francisco?

  100. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Dingo: Good ol’ gambler’s fallacy rears its ugly head again. You are exactly right.

  101. Neil says:
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    @Maitland:

    BJ Upton 2007: 32.5% K, 73% contact, 20% line drive
    BJ Upton 2008: 25% K, 80% contact, 19% line drive
    BJ Upton 2009: 31% K, 76% contact, 15% line drive

    It is too early to put him in a statistical box because of his age and his injury history, but he really needs to cut back on the Ks, especially because his job is to get on base and run (not hit bombs). I don’t know why he is hitting .180 and not .225, but either way, those AVG numbers plus 5 at bats each night really hurt the team AVG.

  102. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    Do the Tigers know something we don’t know? Why is Clete Thomas batting third?

  103. Adam says:
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    Frank Francisco still supposed to be back on schedule tomorrow? Just wondering if it’s bye bye time for CJ Wilson yet…

  104. Doc says:
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    Alexei batting second. I hope he can get it going!

  105. mc serch says:
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    @Tom: I have a friend of the family named Joey Shoes….for real!

  106. Tony says:
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    @Doc: Lets all hope… I snagged up Burris one night after he had a really good game, he was batting lead off then the next day moving up from the 7 or 8 hole? he went 0-5 thenext day…. some of these guys just crap a brick when they get moved up, or something? They should be getting better protection and therefore better pitches!

    COM’N ALEXIE!

  107. mc serch says:
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    @IowaCubs: I actually dropped Madson for Sampson last weekend and then prematurely dropped Sampson after I read that Hawkins was ok and ready to pitch last night. Of course, Madson got that precious save last night and with my luck will run with the job. I call that a “premature evacuation” (when you drop a guy right before he finally puts up the numbers you were hoping for when you picked him up in the first place). This may have some Razzball Glossary possibilities, no?

  108. mc serch says:
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    Sorry, that was Sampson who got the save last night.

  109. Tony says:
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    @mc serch: iwas gonna say, whoa whoa whoa madson got a save, why? LOL

  110. Adam says:
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    @mgeoffriau: Leyland seems to like keeping his batting order the same, and simply swapping out players if they get injured/need a day off. Clete was out of the lineup yesterday, and his replacement, the backup of a backup, was hitting third…somewhere, Dusty Baker is smiling.

    @mc serch: Haven’t seen him pitch, but just by looking at his game logs, it looks like Lidge is getting back on track with three scoreless appearances and saves in a row. At the very least, he’s probably bought himself more time…I’m close to cutting bait on Madson, just haven’t needed the roster space yet.

  111. I'm Keith Hernandez says:
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    Would you all do Chris Davis for Sexy Alexei and Matt Capps?

    I have Reynolds at 3B

  112. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mc serch: Premature evacuation — nice!

    @Mann of Sandd: I’d want the Wainwright side.

    @mgeoffriau: Re; Clete Thomas, this is what I’m rambling about in the post above. At least pretend to read it.

    @Adam: Don’t drop Wilson until Frank Frank has a clean save or two.

    @I’m Keith Hernandez: Sure

    *****There’s a new post.*********

  113. Scott says:
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    @I’m Keith Hernandez: If you’re not even playing Reynolds, it’s worth a shot. You won’t be losing much even if you don’t play Alexei and Capps

  114. qbot says:
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    Do you like Adam Jones of Bobby Abreu more for the rest of the year? Can Jones keep this up or is Abreu a safer bet?

  115. I'm Keith Hernandez says:
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    @Scott: I was getting Alexei and Capps

  116. @Dingo:

    “I don’t want to fan the flames of a stat-battle, but this is actually a classic example of “using the numbers wrong,” as you put it. If both are likely .275-.280 guys, then they’re both likely to hit .275-.280 for the rest of the season. There’s no basis for expecting slumping hitters to go on hot streaks just so that their end-of-season stats end up where you expected them to be at the beginning of the season.”

    I can’t really determine if I think what you’re saying is REALLY, REALLY wrong or if I partially agree with you.

    The “they’re .275 guys” at the start of the season would have certainly included a slump of hitting at .200. Especially with a guy like Upton, less so for Granderson, I would say. But, in thinking Upton was a .275 hitter, him hitting .200 for an extended period of time is absolutely NOT unexpected.

    So, if it’s not unexpected when the season began why would it all of a sudden become unexpected now?

    For example…

    Upton last season hit .273. In June he hit .245 and in July he hit .203.

    All I’m saying is that if you thought he was a .275 hitter at the start of the season, and I did, then you should still think that he is a .275 hitter now.

    I absolutely disagree with the “If both are likely .275-.280 guys, then they’re both likely to hit .275-.280 for the rest of the season.” This statement just doesn’t make sense stats wise. You have periods of hot and cold that wind up to wherever a guy is going to wind up.

    Now, if you’re arguing that Upton’s slump is too prolonged, or because it happened at the start of the year and he’ll slump again, which will cause him to only get to like .260 or whatever, then that is what I would partially agree with. That’s certainly possible. I would certainly agree that with any kind of prolonged slump the guy is not a lock to get to projections. But, projections are just that. I’m not saying he’ll get to .280 for sure, but I definitely think he is going to go up.

    “Also, I’m confused about what you mean by the difference between Cust’s line drives and Justin Upton’s line drives. Are you saying that Upton’s simply better at hitting line drives away from fielders? Or that Cust has a more predictable hit pattern, so it’s easier for fielders to apply a shift on him?”

    I am saying that Upton is simply better at hitting. So, when he hits a line drive, it’s better struck, which means it’s more likely to get down. If they both hit a line drive towards the gap, Upton’s is more likely to be struck better and get down, while Cust’s is more likely to hang up.

    I’m not talking shift, just talking about how soundly the ball is hit. Although, you are right there, I just don’t know enough about where Cust or Upton hit the ball, I just know BJ hits the ball way better.

  117. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    @Grey: Sorry, been distracted by all this San Diego/Chicago trade stuff…..no need to be Peavish.

  118. billy says:
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    Would you make this trade: Wright for Granderson and Ibanez?

  119. Tony says:
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    wow i love i dropped duncan two days ago for mike jacobs who looked to be maybe going on one of his little hot HR streaks….

    jacobs goes 0-4 last night, already 0-1 today

    duncan goes 2-3 with 2 rbi’s last night breaking a 1-23 slump

    AWESOME, nice timing

  120. Tony says:
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    @billy: who do you have at 3b then?

  121. billy says:
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    @Tony: Branyan, with Wood and Gambel waiting in the wind..

  122. In a desperate attempt to salvage ERA and WHIP after last nights Cecil, Liriano, de la Rosa, cluster-f, I grabbed Colon, noticing he shutdown the Twins last go ’round. So of course he implodes in the second inning, so I immediately dropped for Porcello tomorrow. But uh wait, Colon’s 8 ER drops to 5 ER, and now to just 1 ER.

    How is it possible to give up 7 unearned runs on 1 error?

  123. fuqjimleyland says:
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    so, edwin jackson is coasting through 7. thrown 115 pitches. leyland brings him back out to start the 8th. he starts getting wild. ends up giving up 2 runs to tie it. and he’s still in. 130 pitches! one way to screw up a golden arm. what an idiot leyland is.

  124. albertalbert says:
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    @Grey:
    n cruz – 2-4 with 2 rbi, 2 SB. not bad and much needed.

    would you give up cruz for tx chris davis? what about chipper jones?

  125. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @fuqjimleyland: Maybe he went for a smoke.

    @albertalbert: I’d trade Cruz for either.

    ***********There’s a new post for followups.***********

  126. Rick Dempsey says:
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    @billy: If you’re getting ibanez and granderson that would be a steal. Mets lineup minus Delgado is just not nearly as good as last year……Reyes is also having health issues on top of it. POUNCE!

  127. Ashley says:
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    I’m guessing Morneau’s performance today is the Ticker Tease of the Year so far.

  128. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Ashley: Ha! Yeah, seems that way.

  129. Dingo says:
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    @Maitland: See Comment # 102: What we’re talking about here is called “Gambler’s Fallacy,” and you can read up about it here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy

    To use the classic example of a fair coin, if you get five heads in a row, you would not expect the next five flips to result in tails, just because you would initially expect ten flips to give you five heads and five tails. Regardless of the results so far, a fair coin always has a 50% chance of landing heads.

    You can even apply the same arguments that you’re using here to coins — the “five heads/five tails” expectation would certainly include the possibility that you might get five heads in a row, just like you might expect a true-.275 hitter to go through an extended period of time of hitting .200. That does not change the fact that, regardless of prior results, you expect a fair coin to have a 50% chance of landing heads for all future flips, and you expect a true-.275 hitter to hit .275 for the rest of the season. It may not make intuitive sense (that’s why the fallacy exists), but it certainly does make statistical sense.

    Granted, it’s true that baseball players aren’t as predictable as coins, and some hitters (like Adam LaRoche) have a history of hitting much better in the second half of the season, but Upton hasn’t shown any such tendency, as he’s generally hit slightly better before the all-star break than after it.

  130. First, like you mentioned, there is a different predictability with coins and humans. That’s a huge difference, but even if I were to ignore it, what you’re doing is still very flawed.

    The gambler’s fallacy is based mainly on the statistical independence of each flip. The idea that baseball at bats are statistically independent is crazy.

    When you flip the coin, the coin doesn’t know that heads has run five times in a row. In baseball, the player does know that he’s made outs five times in a row. Or is hitting .400 for weeks at a time.

    You’re applying the wrong things.

  131. Sam says:
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    Kazmir or Cahill for this year? Which one would you rather have in a dynasty league? (Roto, counts QS, S, K, ERA, WHIP)

  132. Dingo says:
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    @Maitland: Sorry, but I’m not. A batter may know that he’s had a poor April, but that doesn’t mean that he’s going to hit better for the rest of the year. If that were possible, then batters would just be able to will themselves to play better whenever they chose. For all intents and purposes, hitting in July is statistically independent from hitting in April.

    Another way to look at how people apply the Gambler’s Fallacy in baseball is to ask — when a player is on a hot streak, should you pick him up and ride the streak, or should you stay away from him on the logic that he’s due to go through a slump? Even if you believe that he’s “due,” how can you know when that regression is going to kick in? What if he continues to slump through August? Would you then expect him to hit like Barry Bonds in September?

    And I’m hardly the first person to suggest that the Gambler’s Fallacy applies to baseball. See:

    Here
    Here
    and Here.

    If you’re going to insist that my reasoning is flawed, then you’re going to have to address the reasoning used by these other analysts as well.

  133. john says:
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    F-Her for Gallardo? I’m in a keeper league (my ERA = 3.98 and 1.33 WHIP).

  134. “If you’re going to insist that my reasoning is flawed, then you’re going to have to address the reasoning used by these other analysts as well.”

    The book is from something longer that I don’t necessarily want to read to get context.

    The baseball notebook article I think makes the same missteps that you do.

    As for the Gardner article, I agree with all of the points that he makes. I don’t think he and you are ultimately arguing the same points, however.

    “For all intents and purposes, hitting in July is statistically independent from hitting in April.”

    Right, something in April likely won’t effect what he is doing in July, but do you really think it is statistically independent the way a coin flip is?

    “Another way to look at how people apply the Gambler’s Fallacy in baseball is to ask — when a player is on a hot streak, should you pick him up and ride the streak, or should you stay away from him on the logic that he’s due to go through a slump? Even if you believe that he’s “due,” how can you know when that regression is going to kick in? What if he continues to slump through August? Would you then expect him to hit like Barry Bonds in September?”

    You’re right that you don’t know when the regression is going to kick in. August/September is very different than May in that regard. Like, take Carlos Beltran. He almost surely won’t hit .370 the rest of the season. There will be some regression, but he’s good enough and there is enough of the season left where you can certainly expect good numbers out of him the rest of the way, but if he has a month where he hits .220, would anyone be surprised?

    “If that were possible, then batters would just be able to will themselves to play better whenever they chose. For all intents and purposes, hitting in July is statistically independent from hitting in April.”

    But, I think the point that I’m making is that batters can’t just be able to will themselves to play better whenever they chose. They go through peaks and valleys.

    Like I said earlier, BJ Upton last season went through a period like the one he is currently in. It happened and he still came out at .275 or whatever from last season. The reason for that was because of the streaks balancing out for him.

  135. Dingo says:
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    I appreciate that you took the time to read two of the articles, at least. But I don’t think you’ve really rebutted them:

    1) Book: too long
    2) Baseball Notebook: wrong just like I am
    3) Gardner: right, but he’s not saying the same thing that I am

    Except here’s an excerpt from Gardner’s article:

    During the season, some may decide that a player suffering through extraordinarily bad luck makes a worthwhile trade target. This course of action is wise only if the owner has a realistic expectation of what’s most likely to occur next: One can’t expect the bad-luck player to have a streak of good luck to even out the fates of fortune; one can expect only a return to the norm, or performance stripped of luck altogether.

    That is exactly what I’m saying. “Realistic expectation” means you expect Upton to hit .275 for the rest of the season. Expecting him to hit .310 so that his end-of-season average is .275 is what he’s talking about by “a streak of good luck to even out the fates of fortune.”

    And yes, I do think that an at-bat in April is pretty much statistically independent from an at-bat in July. If A-Rod strikes out against Josh Beckett in April, does that make him more or less likely to strike out against Carlos Silva in July?

    Also, Upton started off last year hitting .295 in April and .316 in May, so the situation isn’t similar to what’s happened this year. I’m not at all disputing that players go through peaks and valleys — I’m just saying that the occurrence of a valley in no way guarantees that a player is “due” for a peak. He might in fact go on a hot streak, or he might stay in his slump, but the best-guess projection would tell you that he’s likely to hit according to his true talent level from that point forward, whatever you expect that level to be.

    Anyway, I don’t think I’m going to convince you of anything here. I’ve enjoyed arguing about it with you, though!

  136. anon says:
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    Should I trade Heath Bell for Gil Meche?

  137. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Maitland: @Dingo: I love the debate, may try and turn it into a post.

    @anon: I think you can do better for Bell, but I do like Meche.

  138. The main reason I thought the THT article was different from what you were saying was because of his reasoning. Player projections, upside of players and overestimation of players.

    That is different than your reasoning for why a player might not just bounce back to what was expected of them.

    “Expecting him to hit .310 so that his end-of-season average is .275 is what he’s talking about by “a streak of good luck to even out the fates of fortune.””

    It’s not so much that I expect BJ Upton to hit .310 the rest of the way, it’s more that I think BJ Upton will hit around .275 and the first 150 at bats hasn’t turned me off to that possibility.

    The Beckett/Silva in two separate months example isn’t broad enough for what I’m trying to say. Only thing I was really trying to say there is just that if someone has been slumping, that’s going to effect the next at bat. If he’s hot, that will also effect the next at bat. If he has a nagging injury, that will effect it. If he has a personal problem, that will effect it as well.

  139. bubba chuck says:
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    What closers can I target to trade for with my Ervin Santana?

  140. Dingo says:
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    @Grey: I’m glad you’re enjoying it. I just hope we’re not confusing people who keep coming to this post for trade advice. I just want to tell them that this post has been reserved for arguments, and that if they’ve got trade questions, they should head to the next post down. It’s important that they don’t go to the wrong post, though, or else they might get stuck in being-hit-on-the-head lessons.

  141. Dingo says:
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    “It’s not so much that I expect BJ Upton to hit .310 the rest of the way, it’s more that I think BJ Upton will hit around .275 and the first 150 at bats hasn’t turned me off to that possibility.”

    For a second there, I really thought that we had finally reached agreement, but then I realized we hadn’t. I also think that BJ Upton will hit .275 and that the beginning of the season has no bearing on that. The difference is that I expect him to hit .275 for the rest of the year, whereas you expect him to hit .310. I didn’t pull .310 out of a hat — in order for B.J. Upton to hit .275 for 2009, he would have to hit .310 from here on out (assuming he has 400 more at-bats). That’s just how the numbers shake out.

    And I’m not trying to say that one at-bat will never affect another at-bat. In addition to the examples you gave, a hitter might be more prepared to meet a pitcher the next time around after getting a sense of the timing of his pitches. The point I’m trying to make is that one at-bat does not have predictive value for the outcomes of future at-bats, at least not unless you have access to all sorts of information that we simply don’t have. Going back to the hot streak example I brought up before, does being in a hot streak mean that a player will continue to be hot the following week, or that he’s due to have a corresponding cold streak? Unless you can answer that question definitively for every player in baseball (or at the very least for B.J. Upton), it’s hard to see how one can expect Upton to hit better than Granderson for the rest of the year, simply because he’s hit worse so far.

  142. @Grey:

    I almost snorted OJ out my nose when I read the Mini-Donkey entry this morning.

  143. “Going back to the hot streak example I brought up before, does being in a hot streak mean that a player will continue to be hot the following week, or that he’s due to have a corresponding cold streak? Unless you can answer that question definitively for every player in baseball (or at the very least for B.J. Upton), it’s hard to see how one can expect Upton to hit better than Granderson for the rest of the year, simply because he’s hit worse so far.”

    Well, I’m expecting him to hit as well as Granderson for average, I believe is what I said, based on thinking he was a .275 hitter coming in and still thinking he is a .275 hitter.

    And, sure, you can’t predict hot/cold/normal from week to week, but we’re talking about four more months.

    “The difference is that I expect him to hit .275 for the rest of the year, whereas you expect him to hit .310. I didn’t pull .310 out of a hat — in order for B.J. Upton to hit .275 for 2009, he would have to hit .310 from here on out (assuming he has 400 more at-bats). That’s just how the numbers shake out.”

    I’m expecting him to hit .310 the rest of the season based on my thinking before the season he would hit .275 and not being deterred by the start that he had on the season.

    “I just hope we’re not confusing people who keep coming to this post for trade advice. I just want to tell them that this post has been reserved for arguments, and that if they’ve got trade questions, they should head to the next post down.”

    Ha, I hope they keep coming in here going, “what are these paragraphs? this isn’t an @ followed by sound advice”

  144. GO MINI DONKEY GO, RIDE EM COWBOY!

  145. icameinhereforanargument says:
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    @Dingo:

    What a stupid concept.

Comments are closed.