The 2010 fantasy baseball rankings have reached the next to next to next to last stop with the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball. These top 20 closers are different than all of the other rankings. The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting. Shortly there will be a list of every team’s closer and setup man. The projections are also a bit wonky since you can’t predict saves. It’s a fool’s errand. If fool’s errand means what I think it does. Some well-known projectionists (not the pimply kid unspooling The Blind Side at your local drive-in who somehow gets the ladies) don’t even attempt to predict saves. Saves come down to opportunity. This is yet another reason why you shouldn’t draft the top guys. Nevertheless, my projections are listed along with where I see tiers starting and stopping. Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball:
1. Joe Nathan – This is the first tier. This tier goes from here until Broxton. I call this tier, “These guys will be awesome. Don’t own them.” Commandment number one — SAGNOF. In this case, it’s Saves Ain’t Got No Face. Means that if Jose Mesa makes a comeback for the Nationals and he’s getting saves, he’s worth owning. Wherever saves are coming from, they’re good saves. We do not discriminate. So why pay for Nathan when there’s, say, Jose Valverde? (To be continued in Papelbon’s blurb) 2010 Projections: 4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves
2. Jonathan Papelbon – Because, in the end, all you care about is saves. Sure, a closer with a great ERA and WHIP can help bring down your overall ratios, but unless your luck is terrible you’re not going to have 4 Lidges on your staff. Besides one decent starter can outweigh the damage of a Matt Capps or Qualls. Here’s one example where I owned Lidge last year. (Continued in the Rivera blurb.) 2010 Projections: 2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves
3. Mariano Rivera – I drafted Lidge and Heath Bell and grabbed Wolf off of waivers. (This was a 16 team ‘pert league so it was doable in your league too.) In their combined 342 2/3 innings, I got a 3.54 ERA. That’s not killing your team. Sure, if I didn’t have Lidge, it would’ve been better, but even the worst closers aren’t that bad overall. 2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves
4. Jonathan Broxton – His splits were terrible (for his pants), but I think Broxton will be just fine and, frankly, I’m not too concerned because he strikes out so many guys. 2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves
5. Heath Bell – This tier goes from here to the end of the list. I call this tier, “I need to get 120 saves total to compete, so I’m grabbing as much value as I can.” As for Bell, maybe it’s the lack of a decent set-up man, maybe it’s the home park, but Bell instills a lot of confidence. (We should’ve all seen this coming the moment the Mets traded him away for a mint condition Gregg Jefferies rookie card and decided to pay K-Rod 16 billion.) 2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves
6. Carlos Marmol – “Grey, would you please introduce yourself to the group?” “My name is Grey Albright and I’m a K addict. Oh, and are there any more crullers?” 2010 Projections: 4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves
7. Francisco Rodriguez – I had a dilemma ranking K-Rod. I think he’ll be fine for 40 saves and good enough peripherals, but he always worries me. Not to mention his K-rate. What’s up with 12 K/9, 10.1 K/9 and 9.7 K/9 in the last three years? He should be fine in 2010, but I wouldn’t be surprised in a few years if he becomes iffy as he reaches his 30th birthday. 2010 Projections: 5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves
8. Joakim Soria – I worry when I see he’s being drafted on average before the 100th pick overall. Is Soria great? No doubt, Gwen. But he still had shoulder issues last year and he’s on the Royals. 2010 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves
9. David Aardsma – To think I once thought it was a harbinger of doom that you couldn’t spell Aardsma without Double-A. 2010 Projections: 5-3/3.00/1.20/75, 35 saves
10. Jose Valverde – Do I think the Tigers needed The JoVa? N to the izzo O. But if he’s healthy, he gets the job done. He works. 2010 Projections: 4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves
11. Brian Wilson – Here’s what I said in October, “What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing. I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch. So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009. What I found is my (thought) was correct. He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38. To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14. Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).” And that’s me quoting me! 2010 Projections: 4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves
12. Francisco Cordero – This has nothing to do with Francisco, but whatever happened to Chad Cordero? First Dontrelle, then Shawn Chacon then Chad Cordero… What a bunch of flat-billed pitchypusses. F-Cord had a bit of a lucky season last year, but he’s still a lock for 35 saves thereabouts. BTW, if anyone ever says thereabouts in real life, punch them in their nose. 2010 Projections: 3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves
13. Huston Street – Street can easily out pitch some of the names above him on this list, but I don’t trust him to stay healthy. 2010 Projections: 3-2/2.85/1.00/55, 25 saves
14. Rafael Soriano – When he pitches, he’s lights out. The only problem is he has a lot of guys to step in for him when he gets injured. Could be the number one ranked closer at the end of the year or could be injured in May and lose the job to J.P. Wheelerfour. 2010 Projections: 2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves
15. Billy Wagner – Wagner seems like a perfect fit for a manager like Bobby Cox. An Old Boy’s Club, so to speak. Or not to speak, but to read. If Wagner can stay healthy, I could see him easily getting to 35 saves. 2010 Projections: 4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves
16. Brian Fuentes – I have a feeling that the Fuentes/Rodney shituation is going to get worse before it gets better. The first closer I see losing their job is Bailey, but the second is Fuentes. 2010 Projections: 2-6/4.00/1.35/45, 32 saves
17. Andrew Bailey – Yes, I have Bailey ranked lower than most other ‘perts. Bailey is great so don’t take this the wrong way, but if he pitches poorly in April he’ll be replaced quicker than you could say, “Wait, I took Bailey as my first closer!” 2010 Projections: 2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves
18. Ryan Franklin – Probably everyone’s favorite to lose the job first, and it could happen. Only reassurance I can give you is Tony LaDrunkass trusts in his vets. 2010 Projections: 4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves
19. Leo Nunez – I know you worry about Nunez, but check out some of the cheap schmohawk closers that have succeeded for the Marlins — Kevin Gregg, Lindstrom, Borowoski and Todd Jones. A veritable who’s who of what’s-his-faces. 2010 Projections: 2-5/4.00/1.28/60, 32 saves
20. Frank Francisco – This low because he was so frustrating to own last year. He’s the closer–No, C.J. Wilson is. He’s closing–No, Wilson still is. He’s closing– Oh, forget it. 2010 Projections: 3-3/3.95/1.24/50, 25 saves
After the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these stand out:
Ryan Madson/Brad Lidge – Lidge is aiming to be ready for the start of the season, but, after last year, Lidge can’t get nearly as many chances to screw up. Madson hasn’t been great either as a closer so don’t overrate him. The Phils also brought in Danys Baez to suck. Madson could get 40 saves, Lidge could get 40 saves, Danys Baez… Well, I won’t go that far. This could get very ugly or pay huge dividends. Madson’s 2010 Projections: 6-3/3.75/1.24/80, 18 saves; Lidge’s 2010 Projections: 3-4/4.25/1.34/55, 24 saves
Matt Capps – Yeah, he’s the Nats closer, but whatevs. I could’ve listed any closer in this last spot and that’s the point. If a guy is getting saves, you draft them. I don’t care if your momma’s getting saves, I’m drafting her. Or worse, Kevin Gregg. 2010 Projections: Saves
