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 Post subject: Re: The season where "don't pay for saves" is debunked
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 10:23 am 
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pythons007 wrote:
Men-in-Cleats wrote:
In the last couple of years Heath Bell was one of the safest options out there and this year he's sucking hard. Last year Valverde didn't blow a save all year and this year he's been struggling. Brian Wilson has been a saves leader for several years and quite "safe". You list Papelbon as a "safe" option this year when last year he struggled quite a bit. Typically I've had no luck with any strategy regarding closers. I've been burned by top 3 guys (Putz 09), cheaper guys (Lidge, Fuentes, Franklin, Broxton '11), and everywhere inbetween. This year I took Valverde and Nathan and some guys I thought would get some saves and even with the closer turnover we've had this year, have been beaten to the punch on pretty much everyone that's gotten the job. Those of you not drafting closers and still ending up amongst the leaders in saves need to get into a league where people comb the wire for saves like mine. Only potential closers I've gotten my hands on like Cishek and Frieri have yet to get me a save. I've grabbed the wrong guy or been too slow in every case.

Closers are like predicting top kickers in fantasy football. They are necessary and can help you win a title but predicting them is damn near impossible.


Just because you're not picking the guys up in leagues doesn't mean everyone else's league is filled with retards. In 2 of my leagues guys like Soriano, Broxton, Robertson (he should be drafted in all formats), Venters, Pestano, and this list goes on were drafted. So speculating on saves is part of draft strategies.


I was merely pointing out that in a lot of leagues the strategy of picking closers off the wire is very risky due to the fact that everybody is clamouring for them. Leagues where you can draft no closers and count on getting the guys off the wire have to either have very different roster requirements or rules to where people don't carry very many speculative closers or you have to be in a league where people aren't on the ball. I wasn't trying to indicate that they were in a league of retards. although it is one of a number of possibilities. You obviously have to tailor your strategy to your leagues. In a lot of leagues, as you indicated, prospective closers get drafted or held and you just can't count on being the quickest on the draw on each new closer change. In my particular situation, if any announcements get made there is a pickup of the most likely replacement inside of an hour. You have to draft closers or you are pretty much just punting saves.

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RCL In Trout We Trust: Bosch Brothers
C-Pierzinski, 1B Goldy, 2B Cano, SS Castro, 3B Prado, MI Lowrie, CI Youk, OF Ellsbury, OF Morse, OF Aoki, OF Rios, OF Swisher, UT C. Johnson, DL Cespedes, BN Buck, BN Alonso
P's Scherzer, Samardzija, Ogando, Nathan, Perez, Hanrahan, Betancourt, Fujikawa (DL), Streamer, Streamer

12-Tm Mixed league(OBP): Three Out Rally
C-Perez, 1B Votto, 2B Rutledge, SS Castro, 3B Longoria, MI (rotating door), CI I. Davis, OF Jennings, OF Choo, OF Aioki, OF Morse, OF Cruz, UT Moss, UT Cain, BN Young Jr., BN Bonifacio, BN Schierholtz, BN J. Francisco
P's- Bumgarner, Zimmerman, Ryu, Estrada, Lincecum, Quintana, Chapman, Holland, Wilhelmsen, League, Francisco (DL)


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 Post subject: Re: The season where "don't pay for saves" is debunked
PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2012 11:13 am 
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A lot of this discussion is dependent on league - number of teams, bench depth, roster positions, etc. It seems like some of you play in 16 team leagues with 5 OFers, 5 RP slots and a 10 player deep bench. If so, good luck with closers.

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 Post subject: Re: The season where "don't pay for saves" is debunked
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 8:19 am 
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AND DOWN GOES AXFORD!!!!!!!


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 Post subject: Re: The season where "don't pay for saves" is debunked
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:26 am 
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Was he removed from the role?

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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: The season where "don't pay for saves" is debunked
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 10:30 am 
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No. just pointing out "reliable" and worth the high pick didn't apply anymore.

If he was officially removed I would have put it in its own post.

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16 team mixed league 6 x 6 (R, HR, RBI, SB, OBP, SLG) x (W, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, QS)
25 man active roster + 2 DL. No keepers. $100 FAAB budget. Designated Outfiled positions (RF, CF, LF)

C- Sal Perez
1B - Joey Votto
2B - Brian Dozier
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Alexei Ramirez
MI - Kolten Wong
CI - Anthony Rizzo
LF - Mike Trout
CF - Corey Dickerson
RF - Norichika Aoki
OF - Junior Lake
Util - Mike Olt
Bench - Alejandro De Aza
Bench - Abraham Alomonte
DL - Matt Kemp
DL - Cameron Maybin

PITCHERS:
SP - Homer Bailey
SP - Chris Archer
SP - Marco Estrada
RP - Ernesto Frieri
RP - Nate Jones
P - Rick Porcello
P - Drew Hutchinson
P - Brandon McCarthy
DL - Josh Johnson
Bench -Chad Qualls
Bench - Carlos Martinez


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 Post subject: Re: The season where "don't pay for saves" is debunked
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:39 am 
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Oh... Gotcha... Yeah, Axford wasn't reliable when it was originally said...

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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: The season where "don't pay for saves" is debunked
PostPosted: Sat Jun 23, 2012 11:31 pm 
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Posts: 139
What is this, like a 5 day delayed reaction on Axford? The same guy that is still in the closer role and got 2-3 saves this past week?

My stats below are a small snapshot of why peoples in my money league, where they skim the frigging wire every other moment (and yes, the guys that paid for saves can also pick up closers!), will pay an Uggla for Papelbon or an Adam Dunn for Casilla:

Starters
Innings, Wins, K/9, ERA, WHIP
456.1, 29, 0.910661626, 3.79, 1.247439614

Relievers
Innings, Wins, Saves, K/9, ERA, WHIP
109, 2, 31, 1.189473684, 4.76, 1.428410526

Oh, I am paying for saves all right. Next season, I will be doing what Grey and the other experts do: pay for 1-2 closers in the early middle rounds ($12 salads) and 1-2 in the late rounds.

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