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 Post subject: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 8:02 pm 
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Never really known for his SB totals (only 20 in 28 attempts, in first 170 MLb games) but he now has 4 steals through his first 11 games (4/4).

I've always found Heyward's career trajectory to be eerily similar to Justin Upton, and similar to Upton he wasn't a prolific base stealer in the minors (although he was a more efficient base stealer than Justin, in the minors.)

I fully expect a Justin Upton-esque year three break out for Heyward this year, including a bump to 20+ SB's.


A line of 80/25/80/20/.900 is well within reason for Heyward, who could be slotted into the 2 hole permanantly in the Atlanta order well before the all-star break.


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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Tue Apr 17, 2012 10:35 pm 
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Hope you're right for Heyward...

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Thu Apr 19, 2012 7:53 pm 
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Heyward now 5/5 on the basepaths through 13 games...

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minors/bench - Baez, Singleton, Lindor, Starling, Dahl, Beckham, Schoop, Francoeur


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bench - Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Danny Duffy, Jhoulys Chacin.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 10:56 am 
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Incorporating loft to his swing is the key for Heyward. Keep an eye on his LD/GB/FB numbers. His career 57% groundball rate isn't going to allow him to hit 20+ HR, but it has improved to 35% in a SSS this year.
I don't see him besting .280/90/20/85/15 without some things breaking in the right direction, but I guess that is what that dirty word "potential" is all about.

I personally sold him while he was hot for M. Moore as I believe him to be an injury risk and can get most of those stats back from Coco Crisp or another WW guy in my shallow, 10-team, 3OF league. I also could use the steals from Crisp and had power to give up thanks to Uggla/Hanley MI. I hope I don't regret it.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 2:17 pm 
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Yeah, the real question about Heyward is how long until he starts getting injury tweaks and generally banged up? That's what prevented him formatting over .300as a rookie and it's a big part of why he sucked so bad last year. So far in his short career he really hasn't gone more than two months without a huge cold spell caused b nagging injuries.

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 Post subject: Re: Jason Heyward
PostPosted: Fri Apr 20, 2012 9:21 pm 
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Silly String wrote:
His career 57% groundball rate isn't going to allow him to hit 20+ HR,


He hit 18 in 2009 in only 520 at bats......he's already demonstrated he's easily capable of 20.

An improved FB rate and clean bill of health, and we'd be looking at a 30HR guy.


Quote:
I personally sold him while he was hot for M. Moore as I believe him to be an injury risk and can get most of those stats back from Coco Crisp or another WW guy in my shallow, 10-team, 3OF league. I also could use the steals from Crisp and had power to give up thanks to Uggla/Hanley MI. I hope I don't regret it.


Just my take, but I think that's a criminally low return for him. As someone who drafted both Heyward and Moore in a very competitive 14 team $ league, I drafted Heyward in the 6th, and Moore in the 8th......since then Heyward's stock has gone up, while Moore's has gone down.

I'd have expected a considerably better SP in return, if I was moving a guy with Heyward's upside, personally..(and that's even if you aren't as bullish on him as I am)

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C - Devin Mesoraco
1b - Paul Goldschmidt
2b - Dustin Ackley
3b - Mike Moustakas
SS - Brian Dozier
LF - Desmond Jennings
CF - Adam Jones
RF - Giancarlo Stanton
Util - Mitch Moreland

minors/bench - Baez, Singleton, Lindor, Starling, Dahl, Beckham, Schoop, Francoeur


SP - Dylan Bundy
SP - Jarrod Parker
SP - Jose Fernandez
SP - Taijuan Walker
SP - Shelby Miller
SP - Kevin Gausman
SP - Jameson Taillon
SP - Neftali Feliz

bench - Zach Britton, Brian Matusz, Danny Duffy, Jhoulys Chacin.

19 team, Dynasty Points League


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