Reynolds should hit over 30 HR, which was why I reached for him (at least according to ESPN's rankings). But having Reynolds limited the other power guys I could grab later because of AVG concerns.
Anyhow, besides the Reynolds thing, I agree with your prognosis. After netting so few HR in the first 5 rounds, I had to take a more risky, upside-heavy approach in the later rounds, so my team's success is really riding on the greatest comeback year ever from Dunn, as well as Ike Davis being healthy and really benefitting from the Metco walls moving in. I essentially took three 1B flyers (Smoak, Dunn, Davis), with the hope that at least one will work out. Dunn's preseason has my hopes up (.294/.478/.706), though now he's apparently out with a sore neck from sleeping on the couch. It's like he doesn't even realize how much is riding on him! By which I mean my fantasy season; who cares about the CWS.
Sleeping on the couch? Has Dunn been hitting the lay-deez this Spring?