New York Times wrote:
“You can’t do this twice in three years and have it be luck,” said Paul Charchian, the president of the trade association. “This is somebody who is extremely skilled at what he’s doing.”
This is a patently false statement. With 390 teams in both years, the odds of winning twice are 1 in 152,200. Your odds of flopping a royal flush in Hold'em, on the other hand, are 1 in 649,740.
I don't mean to say that the Pig Farmer won solely because of luck, but having Verlander, Kemp, and Granderson have bad 2010's, thus decreasing their value in the 2011 draft and allowing him to nab all three players, then having bounceback 2011's, seems like a bit of luck. Not to mention that there is no way he predicted Asdrubal Cabrera's 2011 with that 17th-round pick and the Farnsworth pick was simply a late-round flyer that panned out.
Picking up Allen Craig for an injured Holliday and having him do as well as he did and hit a home run in the last game of the season? Luck, luck, luck!
Not to say that the Pig Farmer isn't modest and humble about his accomplishments, but we should always be aware that fantasy baseball, just like poker, is a mysterious mix of skill and luck and we should never allow our heads to swell to hat-busting size.