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 Post subject: 1st Round Picks: Got Value?
PostPosted: Sun May 29, 2011 5:09 am 
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There were 23 different players selected in Round 1, including 6 that went in the first round in all 38 leagues. This table shows where each player was selected in the first round, ADP, current stats, and their current rank (Yahoo).

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So far, not too many of our picks have performed like 1st-rounders, but there is still lots of season left. Jay Bruce was an accidental 1st round selection, but it has worked out nicely for That's a shame (The Dread Pirate Rides Again), currently in 2nd overall.

Here are the top 10 players and their ADP in the RCL.

1. Jose Bautista...........36.3
2. Ryan Braun..............6.8
3. Curtis Granderson...89.2
4. Matt Kemp..............18.1
5. Jered Weaver...........65.9
6. Adrian Gonzalez.......9.5
7. Jay Bruce................56.3
8. Jacoby Ellsbury........57.3
9. Asdrubal Cabrera.....222.9 (in 37 leagues)
10. James Shields.......209.7

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 Post subject: Re: 1st Round Picks: Got Value?
PostPosted: Wed Jun 01, 2011 11:45 am 
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Ryan Zimmerman as a first rounder. Ha!


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 Post subject: Re: 1st Round Picks: Got Value?
PostPosted: Wed Jul 13, 2011 6:59 am 
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Here is an update of the 1st round picks at the All Star break. The rank listed is their current Yahoo ranking.

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Matt Kemp: Add in Grey's 2nd half projections, and we're looking at a season of 95/36/117/.300/42 for Kemp.

Only @ Rhombencephalon (Matthew Berry Is A Tool) took Kemp in the 1st round. They followed up with Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes, but subsequent picks of Uggla, Reynolds, and Liriano didn't turn out as well and are currently sitting in 6th place with 68.5 points.

Adrian Gonzalez: Definite 1st-round value, and Grey expects him to keep producing, though not at a .354 clip (50/16/60/.290).

Ryan Braun: Even with a drop in steals for the 2nd half, projected for 102/30/107/.315/26.

Roy Halladay: Most would not draft a pitcher this early, but 7 selectors have gotten value from Halladay. He is projected to add 10 wins and 100 strikeouts the rest of the way, with a 2.20 ERA and 0.95 WHIP.

Prince Fielder:
The 13 teams selecting Fielder in round 1 haven't been disappointed. Projected to finish at 93/37/122/.285.

Miguel Cabrera: Not quite the numbers hoped for, but not the major disappointment of some first round picks. Still projected for 108/34/119/.320. As long as his injury isn't serious!

Joey Votto: Grey is projecting an increase in the home run pace while keeping up the average, so Votto should finish with 1st-round type numbers: 108/34/119/.322/10.

Robinson Cano: Not ranked as a 1st-rounder pre-season, but Cano was usually grabbed well before Grey's ranking (19th). Now projected to finish 97/27/107/.302/9, which is close to the preseason numbers.

Carlos Gonzalez: Another player not ranked as a first rounder, but taken in round 1 18 times. So far, he has not given first round numbers, but can he repeat last year's great finish? Grey projects 50/14/40/.280/12 for the 2nd half.

Jay Bruce: Accidently selected, but still better than many first rounders. Projected to drop off in the 2nd half but finish with a nice line: 92/36/102/.263/11.

Mark Teixeira:
Was only taken 7 times in round 1, probably because of his notorious slow starts. But with 25 home runs before the break, he is now projected for a 40-home run season.

Albert Pujols:
As the 1st overall pick 37 times, he has been a disappointment. But if he meets Grey's 2nd half projections, we'll be looking at another .300/35/110 season.

Alex Rodriguez: Chosen in round 2 in every league other than the 2 times he was selected 12th overall, A-Rod has not quite delivered to that level. He is the 4th rated 3B though, and will be tough to replace for the next 4 to 6 weeks.

Ryan Howard: Now projected to finish with 36 home runs and 132 RBI.

Troy Tulowitzki: The power numbers are up compared to the first half last year, but average has dropped 38 points. Last season's 2nd half numbers: 42/18/61/.323. Grey's projecting 50/15/45/.295 for the rest of this season.

Felix Hernandez: Currently the 16th ranked pitcher.

Matt Holliday: Has provided a good line, but not 1st round numbers. Grey is projecting 40/14/45/.320 for the rest of the year.

Josh Hamilton: Has not provided 1st-round value, or 2nd or 3rd-round value, where he was usually selected.

Hanley Ramirez: After being selected 2nd overall 27 times, Hanley has definitely been one of the biggest disappointments. Grey projects him to provide good value in the 2nd half though: 40/10/40/.320/10.

Evan Longoria: Another major disappointment (ADP: 4.9). Projected to finish 70/23/82/.260/6.

Carl Crawford:
.243 with 8 steals. Enough said.

David Wright:
Another lost pick at 3B, plus the uncertainty of his return.

Ryan Zimmerman: Selected twice in round 1, Zimmerman is the worst pick so far. But there is hope! Grey's 2nd half projections: 35/10/40/.285/3.


Yahoo Top 12 in the 1st half

1. Justin Verlander
2. Jose Bautista
3. Matt Kemp
4. Jered Weaver
5. Adrian Gonzalez
6. Curtis Granderson
7. Jacoby Ellsbury
8. Ryan Braun
9. Cole Hamels
10. Jose Reyes
11. Roy Halladay
12. James Shields

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 Post subject: Re: 1st Round Picks: Got Value?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 6:09 am 
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Here is a look at the final stats for the 23 players selected in the first round in RCL drafts.

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 Post subject: Re: 1st Round Picks: Got Value?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 11:12 am 
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Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am
Posts: 317
Three players with more than 7 first round selections finished with first round value. This is consistent year in and year out. So what should you do with your first rounder based on this knowledge?


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 Post subject: Re: 1st Round Picks: Got Value?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 12:16 pm 
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OaktownSteve wrote:
So what should you do with your first rounder based on this knowledge?


Well, like Grey says, go for reliability early. Of course, I imagine everybody thought they were getting a reliable player in round 1. I suppose you just have to be prepared for some picks not giving good value.

Looking at the first 10 rounds for the Oakland Oaks, you maybe didn't get 1st round value from Votto, but others over-performed while Votto still gave 2nd round value.

Rnd.

1. Votto (2nd round value)
2. Tulowitzki (3rd round value)
3. Kinsler (2nd round value)
4. Verlander (1st round value)
5. Aramis Ramirez (4th round value)
6. Haren (3rd round value)
7. Rasmus (---)
8. M. Rivera (5th round value)
9. Zobrist (4th round value)
10. Thornton (---)

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 Post subject: Re: 1st Round Picks: Got Value?
PostPosted: Tue Nov 15, 2011 2:11 pm 
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Pretty good draft that was. Interestingly it was the two guys without much track record (Rasmus, Thornton) that disappointed.


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