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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 10:21 pm 
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Re: Cameron and Hart. Notwithstanding what I said, there is still a temptation to use them. These are players with fundamentally sound skills. You would think that being 1 game behind the Mets that the Brewers are at least correctly incentivized, no? Yes, I realize that they could also be wilting under the pressure.

A quick note before I go to sleep re: H2H streaming. I think that my opponent has really screwed this one up. At this point, with the score being 3.71 to 4.05, it is still not very likey that I will catch him in ERA, but at least it is within the realm of possibility. I cannot overstate what a disaster it would be for him to lose ERA now. And I have no reason to stop throwing pitchers out there - there is absolutely no scoring downside risk for me. My opponent, on the other hand, should have shut down pitching when he was still below 3.00. Whereas I have nothing to lose, he stands to lose a lot, and his possibility of gain is lessened by the fact that I have meaningful leads in Ks and wins now and have no downside to continuing running every pitcher out there. My concusion is this - It rarely makes sense for both teams to be streaming pitching in H2H where the categories are the same as those in my league. In general, avoid streaming where you can. In this matchup, I only started streaming because the math made it such that I had no other choice. Ok, sleeping now. That's my PSA for today.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 23, 2008 10:31 pm 
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Lolhamburger wrote:
Re: Cameron and Hart. Notwithstanding what I said, there is still a temptation to use them. These are players with fundamentally sound skills. You would think that being 1 game behind the Mets that the Brewers are at least correctly incentivized, no? Yes, I realize that they could also be wilting under the pressure.

A quick note before I go to sleep re: H2H streaming. I think that my opponent has really screwed this one up. At this point, with the score being 3.71 to 4.05, it is still not very likey that I will catch him in ERA, but at least it is within the realm of possibility. I cannot overstate what a disaster it would be for him to lose ERA now. And I have no reason to stop throwing pitchers out there - there is absolutely no scoring downside risk for me. My opponent, on the other hand, should have shut down pitching when he was still below 3.00. Whereas I have nothing to lose, he stands to lose a lot, and his possibility of gain is lessened by the fact that I have meaningful leads in Ks and wins now and have no downside to continuing running every pitcher out there. My concusion is this - It rarely makes sense for both teams to be streaming pitching in H2H where the categories are the same as those in my league. In general, avoid streaming where you can. In this matchup, I only started streaming because the math made it such that I had no other choice. Ok, sleeping now. That's my PSA for today.


Good PSA. But there's times and places for streaming. In your opponents' case, he shouldn't have been streaming. It was/is a bad move for him. He should've been grabbing good matchup guys and so you couldn't and then left them on the bench. But he got overconfident.

I can't imagine Hart and Cameron are the only ones available for Thursday.

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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
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If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:50 am 
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Ok. a quick midday update. Had three browsers open at the same time and grabbed Kazmir, Maddux and Cueto for Friday. Bang, bang, bang. A part of me is wondering whether I should have left those pitchers for my opponent to grab. I can see Kazmir going 5 innings and giving up 3 ERs. I can see 3 ERs or more from Maddux and Cueto too. At this point, even quality starts (i.e., 6 IPs and 3 ERs for my opponent helps me and hurts him). I would not blame him for passing up the likes of Zito, Sower, Pavano and De La Rosa for Thursday. But I might have been better had I let him pitch Cueto and Maddux (and maybe even Kazmir).

Anyone know anything about Cesar Jimenez of Seattle? I have never heard of him, but his peripherals look decent.

For Thursday, I dropped Shealy and J. Baker and picked up Cameron and Maybin. Re: Cameron, yes he is a better bet, I think, than my other choices for Thursday. Tejada becomes available later tonight after he clears waivers, but I think that I am better off with Cameron regardless. Tejada is more likely to get hits, but will be less likely to hit a HR or steal a base.

For Thursday, I am carrying Victorino and N. Cruz and still have an empty spot at C. I am not dropping Victorino. If I drop N. Cruz now, I can still get him back for Friday. The only question is whether the risk of someone else grabbing him outweighs the use of the C spot on Thursday. Am currently thinking through this.

Looks like my opponent picked up Balfour and A. Sanchez for Thursday, as well as Garko and Rolen. I passed on Garko because I was not sure that he would play. I hope he does not!


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 12:18 pm 
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Quote:
Ok. a quick midday update. Had three browsers open at the same time and grabbed Kazmir, Maddux and Cueto for Friday. Bang, bang, bang. A part of me is wondering whether I should have left those pitchers for my opponent to grab. I can see Kazmir going 5 innings and giving up 3 ERs. I can see 3 ERs or more from Maddux and Cueto too. At this point, even quality starts (i.e., 6 IPs and 3 ERs for my opponent helps me and hurts him). I would not blame him for passing up the likes of Zito, Sower, Pavano and De La Rosa for Thursday. But I might have been better had I let him pitch Cueto and Maddux (and maybe even Kazmir).
Not crazy about these three starts. I think all three could be potential trouble.

Quote:
Anyone know anything about Cesar Jimenez of Seattle? I have never heard of him, but his peripherals look decent.
He's very wild, not a great thing for a prospect.
Quote:
For Thursday, I dropped Shealy and J. Baker and picked up Cameron and Maybin. Re: Cameron, yes he is a better bet, I think, than my other choices for Thursday. Tejada becomes available later tonight after he clears waivers, but I think that I am better off with Cameron regardless. Tejada is more likely to get hits, but will be less likely to hit a HR or steal a base.
Makes sense.

Quote:
For Thursday, I am carrying Victorino and N. Cruz and still have an empty spot at C. I am not dropping Victorino. If I drop N. Cruz now, I can still get him back for Friday. The only question is whether the risk of someone else grabbing him outweighs the use of the C spot on Thursday. Am currently thinking through this.
Guess it depends who you would be grabbing for catcher on Thursday, but I'd say at this late a stage you should try and fill in every position and drop whoever.

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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:08 pm 
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If it weren't for the fact that my opponent has 5 pitchers going tonight, it would be easier not to use Kazmir, Maddux and Cueto. I'm going to wait until the end of this evening to decide what to do. If I'm still behind in ERA/WHIP, there's really no harm in using them. That's doubly true if I'm less ahead or behind in Ks/wins.

I agree with your assessment re: N. Cruz. I am better off dropping him for any catcher. In all likelihood, he has only 12 at bats left. The difference that he can make in those 12 at bats vs. someone like Shealy, who will also still be available, will be marginal. I'm better off getting whatever at bats that I can get from a catcher on Thursday. I just need to make sure that it's going to be someone who will really be playing. Guess I'll grab Napoli for now and see who Detroit uses before 1:05 tomorrow.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 2:15 pm 
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Yeah, that's the problem with slotting in catchers, the guy you grab may not play either.

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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Wed Sep 24, 2008 11:52 pm 
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Update for Wednesday night, September 25. Score is still tied 5-5. Here is the breakdown:

Rs 82-70 (losing)
HRs 21-19 (losing)
RBIs 72-75 (winning barely)
SBs 8-5 (losing and didn't make up ground today)
AVG .277-.292 (winning)

Ks 120-139 (winning)
Wins 7-11 (winning)
Saves 3-7 (winning)
ERA 4.02-4.47 (losing)
WHIP 1.39-1.50 (losing)

1. Neither J. Baker nor McLouth played today. Right now, I have Napoli slotted for tomorrow, but with every at bat counting with the score so close, I will probably slot in whoever is the better available C from the first game tomorrow (which would be Tampa vs Detroit).

2. My pitchers hurt me in some ways tonight, but also did exactly what they were supposed to. Neither Jackson nor Blackburn pitched well, but both got wins. I think that it is important to be realistic about what you can gain from streaming pitchers. Ks and wins, yes. ERA and WHIP, no. If somehow you end up with more than Ks and wins, that is just gravy, but you should not count on it. In terms of ERA and WHIP, I would have been better off not using any of my pitchers tonight, but there would have been no way of predicting up front the results.

3. With there still being approximately a .5 ERA gap and .1 WHIP gap, I am planning on using Kazmir, Maddux and Cueto tomorrow. My opponent will have Harden and A. Sanchez going. I imagine that Harden will be on a pitch count. Kazmir probably too. There are arguments for using both Kazmir and Maddux. Those pitchers are not WHIP killers and are on teams that have been playing well lately and have something to play for tomorrow. Cueto is a bigger question mark. He is going up against Oswalt and Houston is still technically alive for a wild card. He could boom or bust. If I am resigned to punt ERA and WHIP, I would definitely start him since he is a good source of Ks. With the margins closing, however, I am hesitating a bit. Will decide in the morning. Right now, I would go for it. That ERA and WHIP gap will not close without me taking some chances.

4. The score is so close right now that it feels like this finals will come down to luck. Not many more games to strategize over now. A question in my mind for Friday, Saturday and Sunday is whether I should play N. Cruz or Shealy over Maybin. Going with the former would mean chasing HRs and trying to keep a lead in RBIs. Going with the latter would mean chasing SBs. In my mind, the former makes a lot more sense. But if that is true, what does it mean that I am still carrying Velez and Bartlett? If I am giving up on SBs, perhaps I should go back to Tejada, As. Cabrera and Callaspo? One thing to note is that Maybin left the game tonight with tightness in his hips. If I were risk adverse, I might pull him from tomorrow's roster and use someone more likely to play. Not sure yet. On the SBs or not SBs question, I have Bartlett, Velez, Cameron and Maybin going tomorrow, in addition to Rios, B.J. Upton and McLouth. 3 SBs is a stretch but not impossible with this bunch.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 8:27 am 
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Lolhamburger wrote:
2. My pitchers hurt me in some ways tonight, but also did exactly what they were supposed to. Neither Jackson nor Blackburn pitched well, but both got wins. I think that it is important to be realistic about what you can gain from streaming pitchers. Ks and wins, yes. ERA and WHIP, no. If somehow you end up with more than Ks and wins, that is just gravy, but you should not count on it. In terms of ERA and WHIP, I would have been better off not using any of my pitchers tonight, but there would have been no way of predicting up front the results.
This is especially true in your case because you are in a dogfight for Wins and Ks while trying to make up ERA and WHIP.

Lolhamburger wrote:
3. With there still being approximately a .5 ERA gap and .1 WHIP gap, I am planning on using Kazmir, Maddux and Cueto tomorrow. My opponent will have Harden and A. Sanchez going. I imagine that Harden will be on a pitch count. Kazmir probably too. There are arguments for using both Kazmir and Maddux. Those pitchers are not WHIP killers and are on teams that have been playing well lately and have something to play for tomorrow. Cueto is a bigger question mark. He is going up against Oswalt and Houston is still technically alive for a wild card. He could boom or bust. If I am resigned to punt ERA and WHIP, I would definitely start him since he is a good source of Ks. With the margins closing, however, I am hesitating a bit. Will decide in the morning. Right now, I would go for it. That ERA and WHIP gap will not close without me taking some chances.
Sorta on a side point on what you said above and here, I agree that you need to keep your Wins and Ks lead while making up ERA and WHIP, so you're forced to do the starts that are out there. This includes Cueto. Don't forget, while he's matching up against Oswalt, he's also facing a lineup that he can overpower.

Also, if the Dodgers clinch before there game starts, this could adversely effect the Maddux start.

Lolhamburger wrote:
4. The score is so close right now that it feels like this finals will come down to luck. Not many more games to strategize over now. A question in my mind for Friday, Saturday and Sunday is whether I should play N. Cruz or Shealy over Maybin. Going with the former would mean chasing HRs and trying to keep a lead in RBIs. Going with the latter would mean chasing SBs. In my mind, the former makes a lot more sense. But if that is true, what does it mean that I am still carrying Velez and Bartlett? If I am giving up on SBs, perhaps I should go back to Tejada, As. Cabrera and Callaspo? One thing to note is that Maybin left the game tonight with tightness in his hips. If I were risk adverse, I might pull him from tomorrow's roster and use someone more likely to play. Not sure yet. On the SBs or not SBs question, I have Bartlett, Velez, Cameron and Maybin going tomorrow, in addition to Rios, B.J. Upton and McLouth. 3 SBs is a stretch but not impossible with this bunch.
I think you should give it another day to close the SBs gap.

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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:10 pm 
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Scoring update for Thursday, September 26. I am up 6-4 at the end of tonight. Here is the breakdown:

Rs 83-78 (losing but made up ground)
HRs 21-23 (winning)
RBIs 75-83 (winning and extending lead)
SBs 10-6 (losing)
AVG .276-.288 (winning)

Ks 124-154 (winning)
Wins 7-11 (winning)
Saves 4-8 (winning)
ERA 3.95-4.74 (losing)
WHIP 1.37-1.54 (losing)

1. I made two pre-games roster decisions today. First, I dropped Napoli for Ryan of Detroit. I did this only because I was sure that Ryan was playing since he was in the first game of the day. Got lucky and picked up a HR. Second, I dropped Maybin for Morgan. I figured that Maybin was a risk not to play due to the hip injury. Morgan was a reasonable facsimile for Maybin. Sadly, Morgan got hurt during the game and had to come out.

2. Streaming pitching did not work today. My disadvantage in ERA/WHIP increased. Of course, as discussed previously, I am resigned to this consequence. The interesting question at this point is whether my opponent will stream pitching for the three days that we have left. Tonight, he did not, opting to start only Harden and passing on A. Sanchez, who he had on his roster previously. However, since he is now losing to me, his thinking could change. (As an aside, I am not saying that it should change; only that it could change because he might be feeling deseparate.) For tomorrow, he has Arroyo, Sonnanstine, Lewis and Lannan. I am going out with Volstad, Aceves and Looper. I am in a no-lose situation with pitching basically and plan to use all three of my SPs for tomorrow. The only thing that could change my plan is if I see my opponent benching all of his SPs, in which case I might use some of my pitching spots for closers instead of SPs. I am undecided on this last point.

3. Braun played a large role in my winning the championship last year. I thought that he was going to be responsible for my losing the championship this year. I could still be proven wrong.

4. Dunn still has 1 more HR to go.

5. I have a waiver claim for N. Cruz and should be able to get him. Maybin is out. Cameron will be out to make room for Longoria. I still have Bartlett and Velez on my roster and will probably be content to let them play as both have been batting well lately. I will decide tomorrow. The C spot will most likely be changed again. At this point, what is most important in my mind is making sure that all spots are filled with players who are actually in games. The goal should be steady production from players who are likely to get on base. Much more of my rostering choices for the next three days will be based on scanning the lineups to see who actually is in.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 25, 2008 11:19 pm 
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Quote:
1. I made two pre-games roster decisions today. First, I dropped Napoli for Ryan of Detroit. I did this only because I was sure that Ryan was playing since he was in the first game of the day. Got lucky and picked up a HR. Second, I dropped Maybin for Morgan. I figured that Maybin was a risk not to play due to the hip injury. Morgan was a reasonable facsimile for Maybin. Sadly, Morgan got hurt during the game and had to come out.
Yeah, Morgan didn't look good. I'd make sure to replace him.
Quote:
2. Streaming pitching did not work today. My disadvantage in ERA/WHIP increased. Of course, as discussed previously, I am resigned to this consequence. The interesting question at this point is whether my opponent will stream pitching for the three days that we have left. Tonight, he did not, opting to start only Harden and passing on A. Sanchez, who he had on his roster previously. However, since he is now losing to me, his thinking could change. (As an aside, I am not saying that it should change; only that it could change because he might be feeling deseparate.) For tomorrow, he has Arroyo, Sonnanstine, Lewis and Lannan. I am going out with Volstad, Aceves and Looper. I am in a no-lose situation with pitching basically and plan to use all three of my SPs for tomorrow. The only thing that could change my plan is if I see my opponent benching all of his SPs, in which case I might use some of my pitching spots for closers instead of SPs. I am undecided on this last point.
Yeah, I agree with you being in a no-lose situation at this point.

Quote:
4. Dunn still has 1 more HR to go.
Ha!

Quote:
5. I have a waiver claim for N. Cruz and should be able to get him. Maybin is out. Cameron will be out to make room for Longoria. I still have Bartlett and Velez on my roster and will probably be content to let them play as both have been batting well lately. I will decide tomorrow. The C spot will most likely be changed again. At this point, what is most important in my mind is making sure that all spots are filled with players who are actually in games. The goal should be steady production from players who are likely to get on base. Much more of my rostering choices for the next three days will be based on scanning the lineups to see who actually is in.
Makes sense.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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