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 Post subject: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:02 pm 
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Posts: 91
I realize that I might be writing for a very small audience, but since I am about to start the playoffs in my 12-team H2H league, I thought that it might be interesting to keep a running journal to describe my thought process and performance. Here are the basics: Of the 12 teams in the league, 4 are advancing into the playoffs. With a regular season record of 149-71, I will be the 1st seed, matching up against the 4th seed, who will end the regular season at 122-98. The semi-final round of the playoffs will last two weeks, so while luck will be an important element as always, its effects will be slightly toned down by the fact that each playoff matchup will be twice as long as a regular season matchup. The batting categories are R, HR, RBI, SB and AVG. The pitching categories are K, W, S, ERA and WHIP.

My roster currently is as follows:

C - Soto
1B - Teixeira
2B - BJ Upton
3B - Mi. Cabrera
SS - Tejada
MI - Empty
CI - Braun
OF - Rios
OF - Hart
OF - Victorino
OF - Dunn
OF - McLouth
UT - Cameron
DL - Longoria

P - Kazmir
P - B. Wilson
P - Fuentes
P - Broxton
P - C. Perez
P - Wheeler
P - Ayala
P - F. Francisco
P - Baker
Bench - Lincecum
Bench - Percival
Bench - Lilly
Bench - Billingsley

My opponent's roster currently is as follows:

C - Martin
1B - Morneau
2B - Phillips
3B - Atkin
SS - Peralta
MI - Escobar
CI - Loney
OF - Bay
OF - Swisher
OF - Co. Jackson
OF - C. Gomez
OF - Hawpe
UT - Gerut
Bench - V. Martinez
DL - Crawford

P - Haren
P - Nathan
P - C. Zambrano
P - Shields
P - Soria
P - Wood
P - Capps
P - J. Lewis
P - Y. Petit
Bench - Cueto
Bench - Liriano

Playoffs start tomorrow. Wish me luck!


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:26 pm 
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Posts: 91
Some of you might have noticed that my current roster is empty at MI. This was intentional. Since I locked up my playoff seed so early in the regular season, for the past several weeks, ever since O. Hudson went down, I have been playing more or less regularly without anyone at MI. My wins and losses did not matter for anything, and I wanted to carry as many closers into the playoffs as possible. Of course, with the playoffs starting, I will need to fill that position. For tomorrow's roster, I intend to drop Wheeler for a batter. Since Rios and McLouth are both off tomorrow anyway, I can move Cameron into an OF spot, thus freeing up my UT spot. I would have loved to add Dickerson for one day duty, but unfortunately, he also has tomorrow off. My choices (and the pitchers they would face) are, among others, Milledge (Kendrick), Francoeur (J. Johnson), Sheffield (Ponson), Crede (C. Lee), Dukes (Kendrick) and Millar (Byrd). If I consider only who has been hot during the past week, I could also see using, among others, B. Giles (Maddux), Prado (Johnson) or Shin-Soo Choo (C. Richard). Lots of choices here. Worst case scenario is that I end up with a 0-4 day from one of these guys. Best case scenario is if I get either a HR or SB. I am leaning towards Milledge or Dukes right now. Anyone have a differing view?


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 6:49 pm 
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Posts: 91
Some further remarks - I am dropping Wheeler only because Percival has looked healthy pitching in practice during this past week. The Rays are expected to activate him on Tuesday, and given that the Rays are not playing on Monday, the only risk of dropping Wheeler would be that Percival somehow immediately becomes reinjured (scary for me and not inconceivable).

The plan is to plug in an one day player at the UT spot. For Tuesday, I will need a MI to play regularly going forward. B. Wood will probably get the first shot, though his spot on the roster could be shaky. I had my eyes on I. Stewart, who was available as a FA for the longest time, but sadly he is now taken.

In terms of strategy, in my league, I believe that having a constant edge in the saves category is critical to winning. The batting categories can be frustratingly unpredictable. In the pitching categories, the team that is losing in ERA and WHIP categories (almost always the same team) will inevitably start streaming pitchers at some point in the matchup to win the Ks and wins categories. Closers take on heightened importance because they are the only players that allow you to choose, under many if not most circumstances, whether to play for Ks and wins or ERA and WHIP. For the higher seed, greater assurance at having a 3-2 advantage in the pitching categoies is huge, as that would require the other team to come up 4-1 in the batting categories to win.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Aug 31, 2008 9:12 pm 
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Posts: 31517
Lolhamburger wrote:
Some of you might have noticed that my current roster is empty at MI. This was intentional. Since I locked up my playoff seed so early in the regular season, for the past several weeks, ever since O. Hudson went down, I have been playing more or less regularly without anyone at MI. My wins and losses did not matter for anything, and I wanted to carry as many closers into the playoffs as possible. Of course, with the playoffs starting, I will need to fill that position. For tomorrow's roster, I intend to drop Wheeler for a batter. Since Rios and McLouth are both off tomorrow anyway, I can move Cameron into an OF spot, thus freeing up my UT spot. I would have loved to add Dickerson for one day duty, but unfortunately, he also has tomorrow off. My choices (and the pitchers they would face) are, among others, Milledge (Kendrick), Francoeur (J. Johnson), Sheffield (Ponson), Crede (C. Lee), Dukes (Kendrick) and Millar (Byrd). If I consider only who has been hot during the past week, I could also see using, among others, B. Giles (Maddux), Prado (Johnson) or Shin-Soo Choo (C. Richard). Lots of choices here. Worst case scenario is that I end up with a 0-4 day from one of these guys. Best case scenario is if I get either a HR or SB. I am leaning towards Milledge or Dukes right now. Anyone have a differing view?


I'd go Milledge.

BTW, very cool of you to do this thread. I'll be following.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 6:55 am 
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Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am
Posts: 91
I am embarrassed to admit this, but apparently I do not know the rules of my own league! There are two divisions in my league. The assignment to divisions is arbitrary since every team plays every other team exactly twice. So I have always assumed that there was no consequence to divisions. I was wrong. Previously unbeknownst to me, divisions determine playoff seeding. This year, the West division sent 3 teams to the playoffs and the East division sent only 1 team, which also happened to be the team with the worst record. That was the team that I thought I was going to get in the semi-final round. Turns out that this team instead has the second seed, which in turn forces me to play a different team with a slightly better record (bummer). My real opponent for the next two weeks has a regular season record of 125-95. That team's roster looks like this as of right now:

C - Doumit
1B - C. Davis
2B - Theriot
3B - A. Rodriguez
SS - M. Young
MI - H. Ramirez
CI - A. Gonzalez
OF - Dye
OF - Quentin
OF - DeRosa
OF - Guillen
OF - M. Byrd
UT - Tatis
Bench - C. Lee
DL - Church

P - Burnett
P - Gagne
P - Jenks
P - J. Santana
P - F. Cordero
P - R. Franklin
P - Danks
P - O. Perez
P - E. Santana
Bench - Sherrill
Bench - Parra

In some ways, this is a better matchup for me, and in other ways, this is a much worse matchup for me. During the regular season, this was the only team that outpaced me in Rs and HRs. I see myself as going in with a huge advantage in speed and saves, however. I will come back later today to talk a bit about how my strategy could change against a different opponent.

I hope my Braun, Hart and Cameron will destroy his J. Santana tonight! Knowing my luck, though, it will be some other Brewer who takes Ayala deep in the ninth and blow the save!


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 9:15 am 
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Posts: 31517
Your new opponent does seem better than the last one you showed. But if you can beat him then you might have a better matchup for the finals. Also, a few of his guys are currently struggling a bit, so this might be a good time to get him.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 7:43 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am
Posts: 91
Here are some preliminary thoughts for Monday, September 1. There are still some games being played, but I have ambitions to sleep earlier tonight, so any late developments will have to come tomorrow.

1. I picked up Milledge for the spot start and was rewarded with 1-4, 2 RBIs and 1 SB. Huge day. So is Grey really smart for recommending Milledge? Am I really smart for listening to Grey? Grey may be really smart, but I can tell you that smart or dumb really had nothing to do with the outcome. It was lucky. And as much as we sometimes bemoan being the victim of bad luck in H2H, it is also important to keep in mind that luck is a two-way street; good luck happens too. And it really is unreasonable to attribute the outcome of a single player's at bats for a single game to anything but mostly luck, if not pure luck.

What I think is important about using Milledge for today, and today's outcome perfectly demonstrates my point, is that every active spot for every single day can make a difference in H2H. As a matter of mathematical facts, there are significantly fewer chances to accumulate counting stats in a H2H matchup, regardless of whether it lasts one week or two weeks, than in a full season of roto. You never know when you might get contribution from a player, so maximizing opportunity by having as many active spots be used every day is fundamental strategy.

2. J. Santana went for six innings for 2 ERs and no wins. Braun, Hart and Cameron went 5-11, but had only a single RBI for the game, but I will take that without protest. This is far from the worst case scenario that I could have had from a J. Santana start. My opponent also had Gagne active, and I was happy to see him give up 4 hits and 3 ERs in a single inning. But know what? I could still lose this matchup! Against the guy who is still playing Gagne in September. I know it can happen! And that part makes me a bit sick.

3. The record at the moment is 8-2 in my favor. With two week ahead of me, the record right now means nothing, but it is worth noting that I have already picked up 2 HRs (to my opponent's none) and 2 steals (to my opponent's none). To me, the lead in those categories are more meaningful early than RBIs or Ks. What means the most to me is an early lead in runs, but I am dead even there right now (with the tie breaker going to me).

Goodnight!


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Mon Sep 01, 2008 8:32 pm 
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Pure luck would mean I chose a random name out of a hat and it said Milledge. What we know from Milledge, Kendrick and the recent play of the Nats and what we knew of your other choices led us to Milledge, so luck had to do with the outcome, it had nothing to do with why I chose him and how he ended up on your team for that one game. BTW, I almost told you to pick up Sheffield (who homered yesterday).

I do agree that everyone should be maximizing their spots in the playoffs. Don't let any spot sit open if at all possible.

Anyway, great recap. Look forward to the next one.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 12:45 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am
Posts: 91
I wrote imprecisely in my haste to sleep last night. I completely agree that luck had nothing to do with choosing to use Milledge. That choice was the reflection of judgment (good judgment in this case). The points that I was trying to make when I said that the outcome was nothing but luck was that (1) it was lucky that Milledge had a good game and you really cannot ever count on that happening on a single game basis and (2) the stoutness of the decision process would have been the same even if Milledge had gone 0-4. Luck's effect on H2H (and to a lesser extent on Roto) makes a comparison to other games of chance apt. In Texas Hold'em, your suited ace/king may get beat by an unsuited queen/ten, but the fact of losing does not make playing the hand a bad choice.

Some remarks from today:

1. Wood is almost, but not yet SS eligible in my league, so I am going with Casilla today. Not expecting anything, but every spot should be used, etc.

2. Broxton picked up a save last night, which gives me a 2-0 lead in that category. I should be feeling better, but with Wagner and Saito reportedly on the mend and closer to return, I continue to be nervous about my saves situation. If I end up dropping anyone because of a loss of the closer role, I will probably immediately pick up Wheeler, by the way. I do not feel safe without some insurance for Percival.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 02, 2008 1:23 pm 
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Posts: 31517
We're in total agreement then. And you shouldn't feel safe with Percival, not now and especially not if the Rays clinch a playoff spot with room to spare. They'll likely give him some R & R.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


Top
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