First time in a keeper, long time fantasy redraft player. I inherited a 9th place team and need to keep 4 players, 1 must be a pitcher. Keepers are kept at the round drafted. FA's/trades, if kept are 1st-4th rounders. 10 man 5x5 roto - C,1B,2B,3B,SS,OF,OF,OF,Util, SP,SP,RP,RP,P,P,P,P

I'm think I'm going with:
-Ethier (16)
-Jeter (9)
-Figgins (11) [i know razz doesn't like him, but I have to keep the steals + 2nd base eligibility coming?]
Honorable Mention: Ibanez (15) and Dunn (7)

The problem is with my pitchers.
Would you keep Mo Rivera (6) or CC Sabathia (2)?
I'm not sure how the draft will go, but I'm assuming that with the keeper structure, the best guys available to me in the 2nd round will be ~4th rounders due to keeper inflation (for instance I'm taking jeter a 3rd rounder in 9). So maybe I'm better off just locking up CC in round 2. Or because SP's is a crapshoot and deep, maybe I should go with Mo Rivera in 6 to lock down one closer instead and just wait on RP's.

What do you think?
1) Disagree with my hitters?
2) Mo or CC?
Thanks in advance

Adam Dunn (7th Round)
Andre Ethier (16h Round)
Chone Figgins (11th Round)
Vladimir Guerrero (5th Round)
Raúl Ibañez (15th Round)
Brandon Inge (FA)
Derek Jeter (9th Round)
Garrett Jones (FA)
David Ortiz (4th Round)
Juan Rivera (FA)
Miguel Tejada (18th Round)
Dan Uggla (10th Round)
B.J. Upton (3rd Round)

Jeremy Affeldt (FA)
Matt Capps (13th Round)
Joba Chamberlain (8th Round)
Kyle Lohse (FA)
Jason Marquis (FA)
Andy Pettitte (FA)
Joel Piñeiro (FA)
Mariano Rivera (6th Round)
CC Sabathia (2nd Round)
Johan Santana (1st Round)
John Smoltz (19th Round)

First, I'd keep CC. Not great value, but you don't want a closer in the 6th. Hitters would be -- Ethier, Jeter and Figgy... But you better make sure you load up on power at the draft, cause right now you're weak.

So I did a mock keeper projection on my league and came up with the worst case scenario (if people keep their top ADP players).
(Ranked below by Yahoo ADP with Razzball rater info)

27 Carl Crawford OF OF 2.06 22 0.2 -0.5 -0.2 2.2 0.4 15 -12
36 Grady Sizemore OF OF 1.56 19 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 -0.4 28 -8
96 Joey Votto 1B 1B -0.06 11 -0.3 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 29 -67
44 Jimmy Rollins SS SS 1.28 18 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.8 -0.4 20 -24
11 Felix Hernandez SP SP 3.06 27 0.5 -0.2 0.9 0.8 1 32 21
121 Kendry Morales 1B 1B -0.55 9 -0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 52 -69
151 Ben Zobrist 2B,OF 2B -0.96 7 -0.3 0.1 -0.4 0.1 -0.4 56 -95
40 Mark Reynolds 1B,3B 3B 1.46 19 0.3 1.2 0.7 0 -0.7 18 -22
71 Brian Roberts 2B 2B 0.54 14 0.4 -0.7 -0.6 1.4 0 47 -24
13 Jose Reyes SS SS 2.98 26 0.7 0 -0.2 2.3 0.3 23 10
82 Robinson Cano 2B 2B 0.26 13 -0.2 0.1 0.4 -0.6 0.6 46 -36
117 Aaron Hill 2B 2B -0.5 9 -0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.6 -0.1 50 -67
30 Cliff Lee SP SP 1.91 21 0.6 -0.2 0.6 0.9 0 53 23
37 Johan Santana SP SP 1.55 19 0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.7 0.4 44 7
67 Justin Morneau 1B 1B 0.59 14 0.1 0.2 0.6 -0.3 0 38 -29
92 B.J. Upton OF OF 0 11 0 -0.5 -0.6 1.5 -0.4 55 -37
...
25 Jason Bay OF OF 2.14 22 0.6 1.6 1 -0.6 -0.4 26 1
42 Jayson Werth OF OF 1.33 18 0.3 0.9 0.5 0 -0.4 35 -7

I have the 4th pick of the draft in this 10 man league, but I'm projecting myself to have the 2nd and 9th non keeper picks. (Even with taking CC in round 2).

My question is, based on the plethora of speed (with power) available early to me, do you think I should perhaps change gears a bit and keep Dunn or Ibanez over Figgins.

Then I can select Grady or Crawford or Rollins (tempting) with my first round pick.
Grady/Crawford/Rollins + Dunn/Ibanez
vs
Grady/Crawford/Votto/Reynolds + Figgins


I'm coming to the conclusion that if I trust my keeper projections, that I may be better off keeping someone of "less value".
I'm leaving out a few variables:
- Figgins being an 11th rounder vs Dunn 7th rounder (though I project Dunn will be drafted in 5 or 6)
- I'm completely projecting what my opponents "should" do. It's entirely possible someone like Wright is not kept for last year's dishonors. (Although I would need at least two such "mistakes" to help me out.)

What do you think? Time to switch gears?

Yeah, switch it up. Go with Dunn.

So I changed my mind again back to Figgins (5 games to be eligible at 2b), because I gambled that Wright + someone else would not be kept. It backfired a bit so my keepers are: Figgins, Jeter, Ethier, Sabathia.

I have the 3rd, 12th, 22nd, 26th overall picks (4th slot).
I'm only really worried about value of the 3rd overall pick. I'm projecting Wright and Crawford to be taken 1-2.
Who would you take if both of those guys are gone? Rollins, Pedroia, Haren, Reynolds, McCann?

FYI, 6 of the 10 teams have a 1B keeper.

Likely Top 12:
3B: David Wright (NYM - 3B), Mark Reynolds (Ari - 1B,3B)
1B: Adrián González (SD - 1B), Joey Votto (Cin - 1B), Kendry Morales (LAA - 1B)
2B: Dustin Pedroia (Bos - 2B)
SS: Jimmy Rollins (Phi - SS)
MI: Ben Zobrist (TB - 2B,SS,OF)
C: Brian McCann (Atl - C)
SP: Dan Haren (Ari - SP)
OF: Carl Crawford (TB - OF), Grady Sizemore (Cle - OF)

Top 26 Possibilities:
SP: Cliff Lee (Sea - SP), Johan Santana (NYM - SP), Justin Verlander, Javier Vazquez
SS: José Reyes (NYM - SS)
2B: Brian Roberts (Bal - 2B), Robinson Canó (NYY - 2B), Aaron Hill (Tor - 2B)
OF: B.J. Upton (TB - OF), Jason Werth OF, Nick Markakis, Jason Bay, Adam Lind, Josh Hamilton, Manny Ramirez
1B: Lance Berkman, Derrek Lee
3B: Aramis Ramirez

Reynolds

Ick alright. I was debating him and Rollins... but I hate taking him that early. But i definitely won't be getting him in round3 with 12 overall. Thanks

Whatcha think, here's my team:
10 man 5x5 yahoo keeper

C: Matt Wieters
1B: Adrian Gonzalez
2B: Chone Figgins
SS: Derek Jeter
3B: Mark Reynolds
OF: Andre Ethier
OF: Shin-Shoo Choo
OF: Carlos Lee
Util: Justin Morneau
DL: Carlos Beltran
Bench: Carlos Gonzalez

SP: CC Sabathia
SP: Cole Hamels
SP: Jered Weaver
RP: Mike Gonzalez
RP: Frank Francisco
P: Billy Wagner
P: Leo Nunez
P: Brett Anderson
P: Jonathan Sanchez
Bench: Brandon Webb, Justin Duchscherer, Brandon Lyon

All the teams are so stacked, it's hard to tell if I did well or not... I'm used to 12 man leagues with deeper rosters

Yeah, 10 team league teams look like this. Stacked on hitting and pitching. You're light on power and speed. You'll be worse off if Reynolds fails to live up to last year. Not terribly light on either if Reynolds does well again. So your hitting sorta hinges on him. Beltran coming back healthy would be nice too for your team. Your pitching looks fine and there will be guys to grab even it's not fine.