On May 27, 2009 I posted: “Risky Hitters—in the vein of Rudy Gamble's Risky Pitchers” (viewtopic.php?f=15&t=1500
). They were deemed Risky for one of two reasons:
1)their AB (At-Bats) dropped from over 460 AB in 2007 to fewer than 340 AB in 2008, or
2)their OPS (On-base-Plus-Slugging-percentage) dropped at least -.100 from 2007 to 2008 (100 AB min).
The drops indicated that they had little chance of returning to form in 2009. The results are in:
19%, FOUR (Furcal, Hill, Cuddyer, Martinez) returned to 2007 AB or better.
67%, FOURTEEN achieved, on average, 55% of their 2007 AB.
14%, THREE (D. Young, DL; Stewart and Vidro, released) had 0 AB.
So, if one assumed the risk of picking a player from this list he had roughly a one-in-five chance of getting a player with as many AB as before the drop. He had a four-in-five chance of getting roughly 50% of what the player produced before the drop.
26%, FIVE (Fielder, Crawford, Tulowitzki, Cano, Morneau) returned to 2007 levels.
68&, THIRTEEN achieved, on average, 90% of 2007 levels.
ONE (Patterson) only had 29 AB so he was not calculated with the others.
This group did much better, and likely doesn't even warrant the “risky” label. As a group these players probably came at a discount since their performance had dropped for 2008. If one can expect a return to 90% production, or achieving an outstanding previous OPS, the “risk” might easily be worth it.
So, here are the candidates for 2009. Do with them what you will.
Group 1, drop in AB, high risk?:
*Carlos Quentin just missed the list with 351AB (340 cutoff); risky
*Sizemore, two surguries,?
Group 2, drop in OPS. Might return 90%?:
So, the key here is 90% of what? If the OPS was sufficiently high in 2008 that a return to 90% would be worth the price, go for it.