Keeper Conundrum

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Dingbat
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Keeper Conundrum

Postby Dingbat » Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:11 am

Hey there Doc,

My shallow keeper league is about to start, and I thought I had my keepers set, but now I'm not so sure. First the settings, which are a bit odd:

8-team league
PPR
1pt/20 yards rushing/receiving/returning + 3-pt bonus @ 100 yards
1pt/50 yards passing + 3-pt bonus @ 300 yards
6 pts per touchdown (any kind)
Roster: 2QB, 2RB, 2WR, 1TE, 1K, 1DEF/ST, 4BN
2 Keepers - draft 2 rounds before previous year's pick. FA pickups count as last-round picks.

So, given these settings, QBs are much more valuable, and RBs aren't so much. I had planned on keeping Frank Gore (7th round last year), and Chris Johnson (FA pickup), and then going with a 2QB/2WR draft strategy for the first four rounds, but then I realized that I had Kevin Smith (FA pickup) on my final roster as well.

Last year, Gore was worth only 12 points more than Smith in this league. If I kept Smith in the 10th round instead of Gore in the 5th, I'd have a better chance of grabbing a top TE, or a 3rd QB/WR/RB that slipped through the cracks (this often happens in our league -- last year I got Boldin in the 6th round). Also, if I leave Gore out there, it's more likely that somebody will grab him in the first round instead of a top QB/WR. Finally, because of the weird scoring settings, it's possible to get top RB production out of a guy like Darren Sproles or Leon Washington who racks up tons of return yardage, though it's hard to count on that.

The major downside that I see with this is that Gore is capable of a huge bounceback season, so it's really a question of whether Gore's superior upside is worth the difference between a 5th round pick and a 10th round pick.

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Doc Holliday
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Re: Keeper Conundrum

Postby Doc Holliday » Wed Sep 02, 2009 11:48 am

You make a good case for K Smith who I like a lot this year, but I just can't recommend passing up Gore when you really don't know what you'll get in the 5th. A bird in the hand and all that. I wouldn't call you dumb for taking that gamble, but I don't think I would.
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Re: Keeper Conundrum

Postby Dingbat » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:11 pm

Thanks for talking me down from the ledge. With such a shallow league, it's easy to overthink things, but I think you're right that it's worth keeping my Gore-bird in the fifth round rather than risk winding up with a marginal starter (Smith in an 8-team league) at RB.

By the way, I really liked your post about guys to target in points-for-return-yards leagues. With my league's settings, where do you think I should target Leon Washington and Darren Sproles?

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Re: Keeper Conundrum

Postby Doc Holliday » Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:07 pm

What do you get per reception?
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Re: Keeper Conundrum

Postby Dingbat » Thu Sep 03, 2009 6:56 am

One point.

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Re: Keeper Conundrum

Postby Doc Holliday » Thu Sep 03, 2009 12:04 pm

They will need to go fairly high in that league. I'm guessing around the Moreno/Rice/McFadden area. But Rice and McFadden are pretty elevated in that format as well, so the Moreno area. I would do a little math and see where they finished last year in your league compared to say Lynch, Grant, etc...
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