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 Post subject: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:11 pm 
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Location: Southern Illinois
how woud you feel about drafting LJ 51st overall in a 12 team league to use as your 3rd running back? . Like or don't like?


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 Post subject: Re: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:19 pm 
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I really like it. Especially as a RB3. He's looked explosive in camp, and despite his age, he could be in a solid rebound year. However, I'd try to make sure to get Charles as a handcuff. I have Larry Johnson about 25th overall on my RB list.


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 Post subject: Re: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 2:49 pm 
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Could be a great steal there! definitely worth the risk!


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 Post subject: Re: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 3:16 pm 
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I'm targeting a RB in that spot. If LJ is gone, other possibilities in that spot would be J. Stewart, K. Moreno, D. Ward and D. McFadden.

How would you rank those and could you please post your thoughts on each. PPR league


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 Post subject: Re: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 5:15 pm 
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Hebrew Hammer wrote:
I'm targeting a RB in that spot. If LJ is gone, other possibilities in that spot would be J. Stewart, K. Moreno, D. Ward and D. McFadden.

How would you rank those and could you please post your thoughts on each. PPR league

Moreno should easily get 200+ carries. I like him around there, but it's likely he'll go higher after the success of the rookie RBs last year. Stewart had 184 carries last year, and that number could easily go up. 1000 yards and 10 TDs is very reachable. Reports are that Graham is the #1 RB in TB, which gives DMC a slight edge. Both are in crowded backfields, both are their teams main receiving options out of the backfield, but DMC should be getting more carries, and has a higher ceiling (see: Arkansas 2005-'07). DMC could be better than Stewart if something happens to Fargas or Bush, but Stewart is a safer pick for now.

LJ, Moreno, Stewart, McFadden, Ward.


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 Post subject: Re: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 6:27 pm 
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The Peoples Champ wrote:
LJ, Moreno, Stewart, McFadden, Ward.


I would put McFadden ahead of Stewart. McFadden should win the #1 RB job in Oakland, while Stewart always has DeAngelo in front of him. In fact, my rankings would look like...

Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno, Derrick Ward, Larry Johnson, Jonathan Stewart in a PPR


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 Post subject: Re: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:05 pm 
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marcheese wrote:
The Peoples Champ wrote:
LJ, Moreno, Stewart, McFadden, Ward.


I would put McFadden ahead of Stewart. McFadden should win the #1 RB job in Oakland, while Stewart always has DeAngelo in front of him. In fact, my rankings would look like...

Darren McFadden, Knowshon Moreno, Derrick Ward, Larry Johnson, Jonathan Stewart in a PPR

Stewart had DeAngelo in front of him last year and posted 883 total yards and 10 TDs. His carries should increase. Unless its 5 points per reception, i have a very hard time putting Ward over him.

From 05-07 Larry Johnson averaged 2.6 receptions per game. that would be 41.6 over a full season. Ward got 41 last year in a similar role that he'll have this year. Earnest Graham, TB starting RB, got 23 in 10 games last year, and 49 in 2007. Graham is still a decent option in the passing game. Though i think Ward will be the 3rd down back, and get more receptions than Graham, it won't be enough to make up for the 4, 5, 6...or 10 more TDs that LJ and Stewart will likely get.


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 Post subject: Re: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 7:19 pm 
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Well I based this on my projections for them... here are my projections...

Darren McFadden - 900 rushing yds, 6 rush TD, 40 receptions, 385 receiving yards, 2 rec TD
Knowshon Moreno - 1025 rushing yds, 7 rush TD, 30 receptions, 250 receiving yards, 1 rec TD
Derrick Ward - 950 rushing yds, 5 rush TD, 38 receptions, 315 receiving yards, 1 rec TD
Larry Johnson - 1025 rushing yds, 7 rush TD, 20 receptions, 160 receiving yards 0 rec TD
Jonathan Stewart - 850 rushing yds, 9 rush TD, 13 receptions, 80 receiving yards, 0 rec TD

Are those unrealistic projections? Definitely not. But based on those, you see why I ranked them the way I did. All very close in projected fantasy points, so obviously everyone's opinion will differ. I only see the top 4 varying in overall value, but Stewart should finish at the bottom of that group.


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 Post subject: Re: Larry Johnson
PostPosted: Mon Aug 10, 2009 8:19 pm 
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marcheese wrote:
Well I based this on my projections for them... here are my projections...

Darren McFadden - 900 rushing yds, 6 rush TD, 40 receptions, 385 receiving yards, 2 rec TD
Knowshon Moreno - 1025 rushing yds, 7 rush TD, 30 receptions, 250 receiving yards, 1 rec TD
Derrick Ward - 950 rushing yds, 5 rush TD, 38 receptions, 315 receiving yards, 1 rec TD
Larry Johnson - 1025 rushing yds, 7 rush TD, 20 receptions, 160 receiving yards 0 rec TD
Jonathan Stewart - 850 rushing yds, 9 rush TD, 13 receptions, 80 receiving yards, 0 rec TD

Are those unrealistic projections? Definitely not. But based on those, you see why I ranked them the way I did. All very close in projected fantasy points, so obviously everyone's opinion will differ. I only see the top 4 varying in overall value, but Stewart should finish at the bottom of that group.

That about sums it up there. Everyone's opinions will differ.

Are they unrealistic? nope. Any of these backs could end up with 800 total yards and 4 TDs, and any of these backs could also end up with 1400 total yards and 14 TDs. That's just what you're looking at in this point in the draft. I'm expecting around 1300 yd, 30-40 rec, and 10-12 TD for LJ. That's only 115 yd, ~15 rec, ~4 TD away from you. They got a new offense, a better QB, and he appears to be happy. However his body could be done. 900 yd, 15 rec, 4 TD could be all he has left.

When i'm making my rankings, i prefer to go by opportunity and talent. I have a very hard time ranking any backup RB ahead of someone who will be getting 70% of the carries. There is just so much more risk involved when a players value is dependent on another players performance, and they have very little control over it. Not only is Ward going into a new offense with a brand new head coach, if Graham comes out of the gate with 2-3 100 yard games, Ward's value will plummet. There are rare exceptions though. In a PPR league you may have a Reggie Bush who will get 60, 70+ receptions. Or if you play in a league with return yards, Darren Sproles not only will be 2nd on the team in carries, and get 20, 30+ receptions, but he'll be racking up plenty of yardage and a couple TD via special teams.

My reasoning for ranking Stewart over DMC is simple. though DMC is the "starter", I expect Stewart to get the same number of carries, so their opportunity is basically the same.

It's still early though. If Ward takes over as the starting RB in TB, i'd bump him from 5th to 3rd.


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