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Thomas Jones ADP of 58 (Fantasy Football Calculator) has me perplexed. Might even be able to get him at the 5/6 turn. Ronnie Brown ADP 29.1. Kevin Smith 35.9 Lynch 42
Thats in a standard league. Brees 15th (15.9), Brady 19th (18.9), and Peyton 27th (27.2) are the only in the top 31. Rodgers is next at 37. Assuming your trend of QBs going early holds up, you'll likely see 3-4 more RBs available. the 4 guys listed immediately above Ronnie Brown are Barber, Portis, Jacobs, and Westbrook. i highly doubt you'll get 2 of them, but any one of them would be a STEAL at 30, and is definitely a possibility.
Moreno's @ 49.1, right before your 5th pick. 30/31 is a pretty big reach IMO.
Brown/Smith/Moreno/Jones would be a great stable of RBs.
I'd be looking for something like Barber/Brown/Lynch/Jones. Then you can fill out your roster while everyone else is picking through the Julius Jones's, McGahee's, and Maroneys.
As for QBs....McNabb will be great this year with all his weapons. If you can get him on the 7/8 turn, you're in great shape. I wouldn't be able to pass him up on the 5/6 turn if a Barber or a Portis falls to you at 30. If you don't get one of those 2nd round calibre backs @ 30, you might be better off getting 4 RB 3-6 and then the best available QB 7.
I agree with you on Palmer too. Brees/Brady/Peyton/Rivers/Romo/Rodgers/Warner will definitely be gone by the 7/8 turn. If any of them fall, you have a very easy decision. But i'd expect to see Palmer/Schaub/Ryan. You can make a very valid case for any of the 3. Palmer is the biggest risk/reward, and Schaub is the safest, with Ryan in between. All 3 are a toss up IMO.
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