Hey Doc / others -

Just found out I got the 10th pick (out of 10) in my league. Haven't done much research so not sure whether I should be happy or not w/ this slot. Wondering what your advice is on whether going WR/RB or even WR/WR at that position is a good idea? Perhaps QB/WR (hookup) given that QBs generally fly off in my league before the end of the 3rd round. I don't trust the RB-RB combo given how RBs fall off every year/injuries/RBBC etc. But seems like a stud WR is a better pick year after year.

Never go set with what you wanna do (RB/RB or WR/WR or WB/RB or whatever). You should always be taking the best player available in the first few rounds, then let your draft unfold from there. You don't want to force yourself to take a WR, when the RB on the board will put up better numbers.

mtw02,

Mock drafts at fantasy football calculator will help give you a better idea, but I am going RB in the first round, but since you are at the turn you'll probably have a good chance for a good RB/WR or RB/RB combo. In 12 team drafts I've been having trouble coming up with a decent RB2 when I go RB/WR with my first 2 picks, but it might be easier in a 10 team draft. Unless Brees or Brady fall to the third round I have been waiting until the 5-6 for a QB, but this all depends on how your draft goes. I plan on trying my hardest to get 1 stud RB and a decent 2nd RB. I feel that WR is pretty deep this year.

with a lot of QBs going before the end of the 3rd, i think your best bet is to go WR/WR at the 1/2 turn. You'll probably be to get 2 of the top WRs. Fitz/Moss/Calvin/Andre are a cut above the rest IMO, and you should get your pick of the litter. Then at the 3/4 turn (30/31), If there's 6/7 QB's gone and 8/9 WR's gone, you should still be able to get 2 top 15 backs. Something like Portis/Jacobs/Barber/etc. Then as teams are filling out their roster, you can grab your QB in rounds 7/8. Even if you're the last to take a QB, you'll still get McNabb/Romo/Ryan/Palmer/Cutler/Schaub (Depending on who you and other league memebers like). You can possibly wait even longer, depending on when other league members start taking backup QBs.

If you take RB/WR, then RB/WR at the next turn, you're looking at something like Gore, Barber, Fitz, Bowe.

If you take WR/WR then RB/RB you're looking at Jacobs, Barber, Fitz, Moss.

I think the gap from the #2/3 WR (Moss/Johnsons) to the #8/9 WR (Bowe/White/Marshall) is greater than the gap from the #7/8 RB (Slaton/Gore) to the #14/15 RB (Jacobs/Barber/Brown). Moss-Bowe is quite a gap. Gore-Barber/Brown...not really that much difference.

After AD/Forte/Mo-Jo/Turner/LT, you have a couple backs like S-Jax that you may be really high on. But when you're taking the 8/9 RB, is it really a safe bet? Fitz/Moss/the Johnsons are much safer IMO.

You may be able to get 2 top WR in a 10 team draft and 2 good RB's, but it will be tough. The WR are safer, but the RB's always have a much higher ceiling. I rather take a risk on a possible top RB. The top 10 WR averaged 175 points last year and the top 10 RB averaged 226 points. It is much tougher to pick a top 10 RB than a top 10 WR. I can understand going with the safer bet. I just think you have to go for the gold!

Great advice guys, thanks.

I'm not high on SJax at all but given the hate for him and LT2 in my league, I could foresee having the pick between those two guys, Slaton, Gore, Chris Johnson, DeAngelo, MBIII at the 10th pick. Very hard for me to differentiate which is the "best" available RB. Who do you guys like among those names, who seem to project to be available at the 10th pick? LT seems like the most arguable boom or bust pick, just ahead of DeAngelo, in the first round.

And how do you rank AJ vs Moss vs. Megatron this year? I think I would have to go by strength of team and QB to separate, thus: Moss, AJ, Megatron in that order.

PPR i like Fitz - Andre - Calvin - Moss.
Non-PPR i like Moss - Fitz - Andre - Calvin.

If LT falls to you at 10, you should be dancing around the living room as you call out his name (or wherever your draft is held). Even SJax i'd have a hard time passing up. DeAngelo and Johnson are great boom or bust picks. Too risky to waste a #1 on though IMO. They will still be sharing carries. White will still be getting a lot of the TDs in TEN, and i'm expecting a bigger role in CAR's offense for Jonathan Stewart. Gore and Slaton are exactly what i'd expect to see at your spot. you said your league takes QB's early, so i'd think 7 RB's and 2 QB's gone when it's your pick. That leaves it right around Johnson/SJax/Gore/Slaton. Gore/Slaton are probably the best picks there, but i REALLY like SJax's potential.

Back to the strategy...

At the first turn you have picks 10/11. You'll likely have your pick of the litter at WR, or the #7-9 RBs available. For my point values, i'll use my Yahoo PPR league final stats from last year (It's 1/2 point per reception). The #8 RB was LT with 255.6. The #1 WR was Andre with 282. Fitz #2 with 279.1.

Now, assuming there's about 7 QBs taken before the 3/4 turn comes (30/31 overall picks), since you said a lot are gone by the end of the 3rd, you'll likely have about 7-8 WRs gone, and about 14-15 RBs gone. The 15th RB was SJax with 214.1, and the 18th RB was Brandon Jacobs 211.5. RB #13-19 were only separated by a total of 8 points, which is right where your picks would be. The #10 WR was Marshall with 216.1.

Looking at it from a mathematical standpoint, you're gonna fill RB1, RB2, WR1, WR2 with your first four picks. 3 ways to do it from this draft position.
1 - RB/RB, WR/WR - This give you 2 guys around 250-260 @ RB, and 2 guys around 210-220 @ WR. This gives you 930 points.

2 - RB/WR, RB/WR - You'll get LT with 255 and Andre with 282, then you'll get SJax with 215 and Marshall with 215. Total: 967 points.

3 - WR/WR, RB/RB - 2 WR's with 280 each, then 2 RB's with 210-215. Total....985.

As Doc explained in his most recent article about WR's, there's less injury risk, less risk of them tanking, and they are more consistent. It's much easier to predict who will be the top WRs, than who will be the #5-10 RBs. You know AD, Mo-Jo, LT, etc. will be top 10. But i took Slaton 9th round last year, and Pierre Thomas 20th round. Both ended up being top 13 RBs. DeAngelo, Forte, Chris Johnson, and Leon Washington were all likely taken after the 30th pick in your draft last year, and all ended up being top 12 backs. that's 6 of the top 13 backs, almost half, were taken at your 3/4 turn or later. Who was the 8th RB taken in your league last year? Addai? Grant? LJ? Barber? All finished lower than the 6 I just mentioned.

Going WR/WR at the turn will not only give you the best value, but is a much safer strategy

adjusted for non PPR: #8 RB 230, #15 RB 200, #1 WR 230, #10 WR 170

1 - RB/RB, WR/WR - Total 800

2 - RB/WR, RB/WR - Total 830

3 - WR/WR, RB/RB - Total 860

Not exact numbers, just averaged/adjusted the players around them.

I agree that it is safer. I still contend that if you pick the RIGHT running back it will outweigh the safer stud WR. I can completely understand the strategy though. And might implement it on a few of my teams.

the only problem there is that In order get that right running back, the 9 managers in front of you need to let him fall through the cracks. you can easily land a top 5 RB @ 10. only 1 of last seasons top 5 backs was actually taken in the first round in just about every league. When my #12 pick came around last year, the best backs available on my cheat sheet were t.jones and b.jacobs. there would be absolutely nothing wrong with taking jones there. turner, forte, and deangelo were all also available, and there would have been nothing wrong with taking them there also. but the points i gained by waiting til the 3/4 (36/37) turn to take them, and getting Moss and TO instead of 85, Holt, Harrison at the 3/4 turn is where the value lies. If you can get a top 5 back, then by all means, RB is the right move. but the chances of getting a top 5 RB at 10-12 just aren't on your side. This year could very easily be different though....

If LT or Sjax falls to 10 or so, then i could see going RB/WR, RB/WR. i expect both of them to easily break the top 5 as long as Bulger and Rivers stay on the field. i think they're much safer picks than a few of the guys like deangelo, johnson, and slaton who are often going ahead of them. most backs taken around 5-10 aren't necessarily busts, but usually don't live up to the 1st round pick that is spent on them. last year it was Grant, Gore, Barber, Lynch being taken around then... This year the 2nd tier of RB's is much deeper than usual (i consider AD in a tier by himself). However, everyone in that tier of RBs also has much more risk than usual. I'm working on a draft strategy taking a WR/QB in the early-middle of the first round...but mathematically it's not working very well.