The other day I looked at the pitchers that were getting lucky for fantasy baseball. Today, we hold that up to the mirror and see how the other half lives. Last time I looked at the starters that were being unlucky the list included: Dempster, Garza, Wood, Liriano, Narveson, Ervin, Gallardo, Daniel Hudson, Bumgarner and Edwin Jackson. Bumgarner’s ERA went from 4.25 to 3.23; Edwin’s ERA went from 4.53 to 4.39; Hudson’s 4.41 to 3.82; Gallardo’s 5.11 to 3.96; 4.85 to 4.37 for Ervin; Narveson went 4.38 to 4.32; Wood went 5.28 to 5.38; Garza went 4.17 to 3.84 and Dempster went 7.20 to 5.48, i.e., there was only one pitcher who gained in ERA — Travis Wood. I.E. II, The Return of I.E.: Everyone did better except one guy. Anyway, here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their xFIP and their ERA. (If your guy is on the list, it’s a good sign. Some would even say you could go out and trade for some of these guys, you educated fantasy baseball owner you!)
Ryan Dempster – 2.17. Will continue to get better. Oh, and the two of the three unluckiest pitchers are Cubs. Blame Bartman! (BTW, there were some pitchers I left off of here that came with xFIPs that were better than their ERAs, but still terrible. Javier Vazquez come to mind.)
Chris Volstad – 1.96. Harumph, where did that name come from, huh? His K-rate is 6.72, which isn’t terrible, and his K to BB ratio recently has been solid. Worth a shot in deeper leagues to see if he can right the ship and leave a few more men on base and stop having balls go through.
Matt Garza – 1.54. He has the 4th best xFIP in the league. Right after Halladay, Hamels and Cliff Lee. Maybe the Phils will trade for him.
Chris Carpenter – 1.05. I’ve spent a lot of energy on Razzball talking about how I don’t like Carpenter, so I won’t bore myself by rehashing. Instead, I’ll bore myself by talking about how I won’t rehash it. If you can get Carp on the cheap, it’s worth considering, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher.
Chris Narveson – 0.98. Has a real nice K-rate and his xFIP is below 3.50. The walks kinda drive me crazy though. If he’s on waivers, it’s worth a shot.
Derek Holland – 0.89. I really don’t like messing with Texas pitchers. I wouldn’t like to sit in the stands in 100 degree heat, let alone play in it. Now get off my lawn!
Ubaldo Jimenez – 0.80. Jackie Chiles thinks his walks have been egregious, and his K-rate has been down. On the more positive side, he’s not a mid-4 ERA pitcher, but closer to a mid-3 guy.
