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 Post subject: Which Keepers to Choose
PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 10:12 am 
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Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 9:42 am
Posts: 6
I'm in a 3 keeper league where there is a salary cap, and draft order is set depending on how much you spend, low to high. Positions are C/1B/2B/SS/3B/IF/UTIL/5 OF, 4SP, 2P, 3RP, 4 bench spots, 2 DL

Please help me decide between these 3 scenarios:

A)
Cargo
R. Zimmerman
Goldschmidt
Kinsler*

*#2 pick. Best available would be Kinsler/Posey/Longoria/Beltre/Felix

B)
Cargo
Goldschmidt
Choo
Stanton**

**#1 pick. Best available would be Stanton/Longoria/Posey

C)
Cargo
Goldschmidt
Bumgarner
Longoria***

***#2 pick. Best available would likely be Longoria/Beltre/Posey/Kinsler

I believe A>B>C, but another opinion would be appreciated.

This league drafts weird, a lot of pitchers have been kept for some reason. The best pitchers left on the board are Felix, Lee, Bumgarner, Gio and I expect they'll all go during the 2nd round before it gets back. The only reason I'd consider option C is that my draft slot puts me in a very awkward position (though I'd be fine with some combo of Scherzer/Latos/Darvish/Moore double up with the 23/26 picks.


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 Post subject: Re: Which Keepers to Choose
PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 2:34 pm 
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Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:10 am
Posts: 2176
I like C more. I like the upside that Longoria has in him if he can stay healthy.


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 Post subject: Re: Which Keepers to Choose
PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 3:09 pm 
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Joined: Mon May 21, 2012 9:54 am
Posts: 653
I'd lean toward C too.

You basically have a first round pick...#1 or #2

R. Zimmerman (will have a good year...but is still not as good as Longo or Beltre)

Kinsler* I'd rather take a Jose Altuve later on and draft a Longo/Beltre/Felix here...I think Kinsler is a bit overrated)

Cargo (top-10 player and will be top-15 for years to come)

Goldschmidt (should be a top 50 player this year and could go top 25 with his upside/growth still)

Choo (I think he'll have a good year but having him only gets you the #1 pick vs. the #2 pick...big price to pay

Stanton** (late first rounder...could be undervalued going into next year as he's playing on a lousy team...he will regularly hit 50+ home runs from year to year)

With C you are getting a top 10 player in Cargo...top-5 outfielder)...1B is taken care of and you didn't and Goldie's value is helping you pick #2 in the draft)...Bumgarner is a 3rd tier pitcher with 2nd tie potential this year and in the future (1st tier is the likes of Kershaw, Strasburg, Verlander)
Cargo
Goldschmidt
Bumgarner
Longoria*** (If you don't get Longo don't hesitate on Beltre...he's probably a safer bet for stats but Longo is in his prime where Beltre is on the verge of leaving it)

Look for value on the pitching end...Gio might be undervalued with the PED link (unfounded thus far)...Sale is a high risk high reward...Medlen ..same... guys like Dan Haren and Jon Lester are bounce-back candidates....Matt Moore could give you top 10 SP value without paying the price.

Value at 2B...Altuve...Aaron Hill in that order
Value at SS...Jimmy Rollins (do not overpay)...and Asdrubal Cabrera...I'd prefer taking Cabrera later...around 90th-100th (or later)

Good luck


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 Post subject: Re: Which Keepers to Choose
PostPosted: Sun Mar 24, 2013 4:00 pm 
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Joined: Sun Mar 24, 2013 9:42 am
Posts: 6
Thanks guys. Very in depth analysis!


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