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 Post subject: Rizzo or Markakis
PostPosted: Tue Feb 05, 2013 11:29 pm 
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like 9 out of 10 people would say Rizzo (the one being Ron Schandler).

Here are Grey's projections:

Rizzo: 74/24/86/.259/6
Markakis: 82/17/85/.293/5

setting position eligibility aside (because you're not actually starting Rizzo as your best 1B), isn't Markakis better? The difference in Avg is bigger than the difference in HR, and even if it's not, Markakis has the solid edge in runs. Is this just all about the upside? Because Markakis has 20 hr upside. Does Rizzo have 30?

Why am I one of only two people in the world who wants to keep Markakis over Rizzo? The anguish!

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Baseball
10 team 6 x 6 (ops, holds) auction ($240) 9 keepers

30 man roster
(C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, UTIL)
(9 P)(8 BN)(4 DL)

C Carlos Santana
1B Jose Abreu
2B Martin Prado
3B Evan Longoria
SS Brad Miller
MI A Simmons
CI T Fraizer
0F Adam Jones
0F Norichika Aoki
0F Jacoby Ellsbury
0F Jay Bruce
UTIL Justin Morneau
B Brandon Moss
B Neil Walker
B Marcell Ozuna
DL A. Garcia
DL J. Profar

SP Homer Bailey
SP Danny Salazar
SP James Shields
SP Rick Porcello
SP Ervin Santana
SP Jesse Chavez
SP Nate Eovaldi
RP Sergio Romo
RP Greg Holland
RP Kenley Jansen
RP Junichi Tazawa
RP Kelvin Herrera
RP Chris Capuano
RP Evan Meek
RP Jordan Walden

DL Mat Latos
DL Alex Cobb


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo or Markakis
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 5:12 am 
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Not saying this is how it should be but this is some of the reasons why.

Rizzo is a prospect or was a hot prospect and people love prospects. I am not sold on him being good enough to be a starting 1B especially this year but he does have the upside of putting up 30 HR with solid other numbers.

Markakis has the unfortunate problem of having a ton of expectations dropped on him and then he never quite lived up to it. At the start of his career he was close to being a 20/20 guy and that is what everyone kept hoping he would be. After two years of being a very solid OF he took a sizable step back and when that happened I think he got knocked further back than he deserved.

Really the difference between the two, is Rizzo has a ton of upsiide and has had very few failures at the MLB level. While Markakis is nothing special and hos practicably no upside. So yes Markakis might end up being better but most people are going to buy into Rizzo hoping that he takes a big step forward and knowing that they can get Markakis numbers from other OF in the draft.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo or Markakis
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 7:10 am 
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Rizzos floor, is Markakis ceiling.
Those numbers are generous for Markakis.
Schandler might have been drinking.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo or Markakis
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 1:07 pm 
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I agree with all you guys. I just think sometimes I'd rather have a sure thing than an unknown quantity, and that there is added value in Markakis' reliability that people aren't paying for. For me it might come down to where my team is at a certain point in time: do I need more certainty, or can I afford to take more risks. But outside of that context, in a vacuum, I gotta go with Markakis. It is a pretty high floor he gives you.

_________________
Baseball
10 team 6 x 6 (ops, holds) auction ($240) 9 keepers

30 man roster
(C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, MI, CI, OF, OF, OF, UTIL)
(9 P)(8 BN)(4 DL)

C Carlos Santana
1B Jose Abreu
2B Martin Prado
3B Evan Longoria
SS Brad Miller
MI A Simmons
CI T Fraizer
0F Adam Jones
0F Norichika Aoki
0F Jacoby Ellsbury
0F Jay Bruce
UTIL Justin Morneau
B Brandon Moss
B Neil Walker
B Marcell Ozuna
DL A. Garcia
DL J. Profar

SP Homer Bailey
SP Danny Salazar
SP James Shields
SP Rick Porcello
SP Ervin Santana
SP Jesse Chavez
SP Nate Eovaldi
RP Sergio Romo
RP Greg Holland
RP Kenley Jansen
RP Junichi Tazawa
RP Kelvin Herrera
RP Chris Capuano
RP Evan Meek
RP Jordan Walden

DL Mat Latos
DL Alex Cobb


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo or Markakis
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 3:20 pm 
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Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:10 am
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Beardawg wrote:
I agree with all you guys. I just think sometimes I'd rather have a sure thing than an unknown quantity, and that there is added value in Markakis' reliability that people aren't paying for. For me it might come down to where my team is at a certain point in time: do I need more certainty, or can I afford to take more risks. But outside of that context, in a vacuum, I gotta go with Markakis. It is a pretty high floor he gives you.


I agree with you. You know what you are going to get from Markakis and that is usually under-valued in fantasy baseball if you are talking about mid tier guys. Usually seems teams want studs or they want prospects and tend to shy away from good but never gonna be great players.


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 Post subject: Re: Rizzo or Markakis
PostPosted: Wed Feb 06, 2013 4:07 pm 
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It also depends on where you are drafting them. Most ADPs I've seen (and we're still a little early to take a serious look at ADPs) have Rizzo going somewhere around the 6th or 7th round. Simply put, that's ridiculous. There's too much unknown, and too little a sample size, to justify taking a 23 year old prospect that high. If he fell to me at the 10th round, or higher, I would grab him. But a 6th round pick is hefty price tag.

Markakis, on the other hand, has an ADP somewhere around the 12th round. Simply put, that is also ridiculous. His ADP is close to Will Middlebrooks, Kendrys Morales, David Freese, Starling Marte, etc. I would take any one of those guys over Markakis.

Now I'm off on a tangent. Bottom line: I wouldn't draft either this year unless they dropped far. I would need Rizzo to drop to the 10th or lower (maybe 9th), and I can't even imagine a scenario in which I'm drafting Markakis. I guess I'm ultimately trying to say Rizzo over Markakis all day.


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