Simply Fred wrote:
15/30 more likely than 30/30. I have TB righties hitting 1 HR per every 33.2 AB within their division, ranking 5th of the 30 MLB teams for righties. I have ATL righties hitting the HR per every 46.3 AB within their division, ranking #29. Cust Kayin'
My only quibble with utilizing this stat to predict whether he hits 15 vs 20 is this: it removes individual player evaluation. Dan Uggla hit 18 HRs at home in 2011. He hit 18 on the road. Of those 18 on the road, 8 came within his division so 26 of his HRs came in the NL East. He averaged a HR every 16.9 ABs. If we evaluate just ATL, let's try and think of how many ABs have been had by guys who are right-handers with above 10 HR power...Well, we could count Chipper in the analysis but I don't think 2009~2011 is the best indicator of what type of right handed power hitter Chipper was. Omar Infante had a 500 AB season for ATL during this 3 year stretch. Prado - he of the career high 15 HRs in 2009 - has averaged about 500 AB a season since 2009. Yunel also had himself a 500 AB season in that 3 year radius in which he hit 14 HRs. He has subsequently moved to Rogers Centre for half of his at-bats. Career HR rates as a Braves hitter is a HR every 33.1 AB. Career rates as a Blue Jay: a HR every 55.9 AB. No, I didn't break it down divisionally but I think it's fair to look at those numbers - as Rogers center is the lowest rate amongst of AB per HR on the site you mentioned- and can safely assume that the player makes the stat moreso than the division/stadium.
That said, I don't fault you for your thinking and it'll be interesting to see what we get out of this little eval by season's end. But I think we can both agree that Jose Bautista is a great power hitter and that's not going to change just because he moves from Rogers to Turner.