I like him this year. I think he's going to like moving outdoors. That cavern in Tampa is such a dump. Crappy place to hit. He's originally from Norfolk, VA so there might be a little hometown feel. Wouldn't be surprised if he saw a lot of Braves growing up watching Skip Carey on the Superstation. Lot of Braves fans in the mid-Atlantic. I sometimes think of guys like him as suited for National League ball.

Since 2008 his low SB total was 31, though that was last year. He's coming off a career high 28 HRs, but he hit 23 the year before so it doesn't feel like it came out of nowhere. You'd have to start talking about him having 30/30 potential and being drafted somewhere in the 7-10 rounds in 12 team mixed. You'll eat the average. .250 would be a bonus. But let's say he gives you 25/35 scores 85 and drives in 75. Would you rather have him than Austin Jackson, who might go a round or two higher? I would.

Like him regardless. He gets discounted due to average every year. I'll take my 20-25 HRs and 35-40 steals any time and make up for the average elsewhere

15/30 more likely than 30/30. I have TB righties hitting 1 HR per every 33.2 AB within their division, ranking 5th of the 30 MLB teams for righties. I have ATL righties hitting the HR per every 46.3 AB within their division, ranking #29. Cust Kayin'

Yeah my post is definitely a bit of dressed up BS. Albright posted some good counterfactuals in the morning brief...but...but...every year I get a couple of hunches and here's one of them. If it helps, my big hunch of 2010 was Verlander and my big hunch of 2011 was Ian Desmond.

Fred, I don't quite get your numbers. Atlanta has had a real lack of right handed power over the year. Your stat seems to be more personnel specific than normalized to demonstrate anything about the effect of playing in ATL vs Tampa.

Park effects has Tampa at tied for 23rd, worse than the O.co and tied with Citi for supressing runs. Turner was 11th best. They are closer in HRs for park effects but Turner still better. The park efffects numbers are a little wonky but best we've got.

Hey, I am always on a learning curve. I appreciate the info and will dig in. Mine very well could be more personnel impacted.

I used this: http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/ma ... 13073.html
3-year righty/lefty averages. I weighted the team rating by 50% for home games and 12.5% each for the games at opponents' parks.

There's always a plethora of baseball data. Sometimes tough to differentiate the better. Sounds like you are way ahead of my baseball stats skills--really!

You are obviously a skilled fantasy player. I am on board riding your hunch--Bossman!

Wow...now I know how Albright feels. Put your hunches out there publicly then look like a dumbass later. Still, the little psychic bell is ringing.

My only quibble with utilizing this stat to predict whether he hits 15 vs 20 is this: it removes individual player evaluation. Dan Uggla hit 18 HRs at home in 2011. He hit 18 on the road. Of those 18 on the road, 8 came within his division so 26 of his HRs came in the NL East. He averaged a HR every 16.9 ABs. If we evaluate just ATL, let's try and think of how many ABs have been had by guys who are right-handers with above 10 HR power...Well, we could count Chipper in the analysis but I don't think 2009~2011 is the best indicator of what type of right handed power hitter Chipper was. Omar Infante had a 500 AB season for ATL during this 3 year stretch. Prado - he of the career high 15 HRs in 2009 - has averaged about 500 AB a season since 2009. Yunel also had himself a 500 AB season in that 3 year radius in which he hit 14 HRs. He has subsequently moved to Rogers Centre for half of his at-bats. Career HR rates as a Braves hitter is a HR every 33.1 AB. Career rates as a Blue Jay: a HR every 55.9 AB. No, I didn't break it down divisionally but I think it's fair to look at those numbers - as Rogers center is the lowest rate amongst of AB per HR on the site you mentioned- and can safely assume that the player makes the stat moreso than the division/stadium.

That said, I don't fault you for your thinking and it'll be interesting to see what we get out of this little eval by season's end. But I think we can both agree that Jose Bautista is a great power hitter and that's not going to change just because he moves from Rogers to Turner.

You guys are good, AND I did check you out. Went to the player rater, punched in last 20 days>hitters (which is really July/Aug/Sep). BJ ranked #5 over that span.

I'm excited about the Uptons in Atlanta this year... I agree that BJ is poised to have his career best year this season. He's in his prime years, his power is obviously trending towards his peak years, he gets out of a Tampa Bay market where the Rays aren't exactly filling the stands (30th in attendance in 2012) to Atlanta where the Braves sometimes fill the stands (15th in attendance). He also is going to have all the protection he needs with the Braves' new lineup and he will probably have a lot of people on base for him, too.
And he gets to play with his brother!

I definitely don't think 30/30 is out of the question and I expect his RBI and runs totals to be better than they've been in the past. There's a legitimate chance of him leading off which I disagree with... I think his numbers will be amazing (minus BA) if he is hitting 5th or 6th where he will drive a lot of people in and still likely have a guy like Dan Uggla hitting behind him.

As for the right handers in ATL... As already mentione it's definitely more a by-product of Atlanta having a massive lack of right-handed power hitters over the last few years. We honestly, not counting Uggla, haven't had a right-handed power bat since Andruw Jones in the mid-2000's. If you look at the numbers of Jones, Javy Lopez, Brian Jordan, etc. they had pretty good power numbers at Turner Field.