Doing a 6-team NFL playoffs fantasy league with friends. 2 QBS, .5 PPR. with 12 player rosters. Rules are you must draft 1 and only 1 player from all 12 teams. I have 1st pick. I think conventional logic would say 1st pick should be Brady or Peyton (I suppose Brady makes slightly more sense given that if NE is the #3 seed, he has the possibility of playing 4 games instead of the 3 Peyton could play), but I have 2 pretty good counter-arguments against:
1) If the current AFC standings hold up, there's a very good chance NE and DEN play in round 2. Pretty good chance the AFC winner comes out of that game, but the risk of losing my top pick would probably be pretty close to 50/50. On the other hand, the NFC is a lot more wide open right now.
2) In terms of the fantasy format (must take 1 player from each team), NE and Den might have the 2 deepest rosters of all the playoff teams. There's still plenty of value in waiting until rd.2-4 to take guys like Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, Demaryius, Moreno, etc. The same can't really be said for some of the NFC teams (namely GB, SF, and Seattle).
Therefore, I am heavily considering using the 1st pick on an NFC QB instead. I would probably have to rate Rodgers #1, but I could probably just as easily take Wilson, Kaepernick, or Ryan.
Any input you'd like to add to this would be appreciated.