Streaming with The Fredsies

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snky allgtr
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby snky allgtr » Tue Jul 17, 2012 12:11 pm

Thanks, where was that SIERA data...?

bearwah
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby bearwah » Tue Jul 17, 2012 12:30 pm

Either search for the player and scroll down to the "Batted Ball" tab or on the main page click on "Leaders" in the top banner and scroll down to do a custom player search. Then click on "Advanced" tab for SIERA and you can look at 30-day splits.

Eddy
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Eddy » Tue Jul 17, 2012 2:08 pm

Paul Maholm is looking like an interesting candidate for the 19th.

Opponent: vs. MIA
Road OPS: 26th
Road AVG: 30th
OPS v. LHP: 20th

Pitcher:
O-Swing: 28.2%
Home FIP 4.00, ERA 3.02
No headsup v. MIA in 2012, but has struggled against the team in his career.
2 ER in last 21.1 IP (ARI, @NYM, HOU)

My biggest concern is his .381 BABIP. In his stellar July opponents are hitting .308 against him. Not sure what he's doing to avoid getting blown up.

Finally, wind blowing directly IN from CF.

How are we feeling about him?

weselm
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby weselm » Tue Jul 17, 2012 2:11 pm

Not sure of Ross Detwiler's availability in other leagues, but thought I'd mention that I'm starting him today, in case anyone else can still get some use out of him:
Ross Detwiler vs NYM (owned in 30% of CBS leagues). 3.60 home ERA, 3.92 night ERA. 2-0 vs Mets in two appearances this year (one in relief), with 1.29 ERA and 10 Ks. O-swing % = 31.6. SIERA might be a bit high at 4.24. Mets rank 22nd in OPS vs lefties (though 4th in away games). A couple red flags, but I'm going for it.

I also plan to start Roy Oswalt and Travis Wood tonight, both of whom were already on my team before I began streaming with the Fredsies. Wood also has some red flags (terrible start against the Marlins last year), but he's been pitching lights out lately. Only owned in 50% of CBS leagues.

bearwah
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby bearwah » Tue Jul 17, 2012 2:26 pm

Detwiler not great in his last 2 starts (6.2 Inn, 4 ER vs Atl, 5 Inn, 11 hits, 3ER vs SF). 30-day SIERA is 4.3 (although 30 day O-Swing is 34.3).

Eddy
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Eddy » Tue Jul 17, 2012 2:28 pm

weselm wrote: Wood also has some red flags (terrible start against the Marlins last year), but he's been pitching lights out lately.


This is already shaping up to be one of my biggest dilemmas. When a pitcher is on a roll, do we ignore some of the bigger red flags?

Demspter ignored the red flags last time out and pitched fine, but McDonald got rocked by MIL regardless of how good he'd been.

That's the case with Wood (whom I'm also starting) and Maholm (whom I'm not sure about yet). Both have been great their last few times.

Unless it's @COL, @NYY, @BOS, @MIL or @TEX, I think I prefer to ride the hot hand and start someone who's been great despite red flags that would make me consider benching him.

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Simply Fred
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Simply Fred » Tue Jul 17, 2012 3:38 pm

sorry overnighter at the lake, just back

There were no projected streamers for TU, 7/17. I'll try to add the dates to make it more clear.

J K: Votto accounts for 17% of Reds HR at home. So, I can see the temptation. However, Estrada has an 18.8% HR/FB percentage--AWFUL. That means just about anybody could get 'em against him. He has pitched well, and in a pitchers park would take the chance, just not this time.

All this streamer talk is just opening up the possibilities from my angle. Everybody talking about what weighs more: most recent outing? headsup? park? etc. I used to apply multiple regression analysis which answers questions like that--takes the guess work out. I am trying to look for a window and opportunity to see what it might tell us. Look for more on this.

Huntrusty: ATL a stong team with #14 Home and #13 vs. right. Vogelsong good, but better at home (1.43 era) than away (3.59). No headsup. Just don't see the worth of the gamble. SIT

snky allgtr: sorry I am late to the party. Agree with bearwah. Also, wind blowin' out at WAS.

Eddy: think you covered the bases with Maholm. His 0-Swing% has dropped off to 25.2% bad, but his HR/FB is 6.5 GREAT. I would play this one strictly with the wind. If in, MIA might get some hits, but shouldn't explode on him. If OUT, might not be pretty. WE REALLY WANT THE STATISTICS TO SPEAK TO US TO CONFIRM THE CORRECT AMOUNT OF WEIGHT TO PUT ON THE DIFFERENT CHECKS. Will be a learning process for awhile.

Eddy
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Eddy » Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:17 pm

Well, Marlins shellacked Travis Wood. Big blow came from a grand slam. Now I'm second guessing streaming Maholm. Just like I look closely at how well a pitcher has done in recent starts, I pay attention to how hot a team has been. This could be the start of something for MIA.

I guess I'll wait to see how Marlins perform tomorrow, I guess.

Charles
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Charles » Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:46 pm

Harrell is pitching AWAY @SD this week. He has a 6.21 road ERA. Is he still streamable?

Eddy
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Eddy » Tue Jul 17, 2012 7:49 pm

Charles wrote:Harrell is pitching AWAY @SD this week. He has a 6.21 road ERA. Is he still streamable?


The majority of his road damage came @COL and @TEX. Can't blame him for that. I'll spin him @SD


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