Streaming with The Fredsies

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Eddy » Mon Jul 16, 2012 2:43 pm

Eddy wrote:4.60 FIP in away games (6+ ERA)

Forgot to mention that 1) this is for 7/19 and 2) He surrendered 14 ER @COL and @TEX, so that pretty much accounts for his terrible road numbers.

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Simply Fred
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Simply Fred » Mon Jul 16, 2012 3:10 pm

see top for Tilman stream.

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Simply Fred
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Simply Fred » Mon Jul 16, 2012 3:23 pm

An Edsie! Way to dig deeper. That AWAY split had me shelve him. But, you resolved it: @COL, @TEX. He had a 1.99 ERA at home, which isn't that easy to do @HOU. I don't like the number of BB, but @SD let's hope he is a little more confident and just brings it. STREAM! REALLY NICE FIND!

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King Wank
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby King Wank » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:38 pm

Okay, I'm sorry to sound stupid. I'm trying to decipher your lead post. Whom are you streaming for 7/17? I can't tell.
5x5 Roto 12 teams

C Santana, Carlos (1B,C) CLE 
1B Goldschmidt, Paul (1B) ARI 
2B Phillips, Brandon (2B) CIN 
3B Zimmerman, Ryan (3B) WAS 
SS Espinosa, Danny (2B,SS) WAS 
MI Johnson, Kelly (2B) TB
CI Frazier, Todd (1B,3B) CIN 
OF Hunter, Torii(OF) DET
OF McCutchen, Andrew (OF) PIT
OF Pence, Hunter (OF) SF 
OF Stanton, Giancarlo (OF) MIA 
OF Stubbs, Drew (OF) CLE
U Bonifacio, Emilio (OF) TOR 
U Machado, Manny (3B) BAL 

P Benoit, Joaquin (P) DET 
P Greinke, Zack (P) LAD 
P Janssen, Casey (P) TOR 
P Milone, Tommy (P) OAK 
P Moore, Matt (P) TB 
P Morrow, Brandon (P) TOR 
P Parker, Jarrod (P) OAK 
P Dempster, Ryan (P) BOS 
P Soriano, Rafael (P) WAS 

Bench (P) Ryu, Hyun-Jin (P) LAD 
Bench (P) Doubront, Felix (P) BOS
Bench (P) Hanson, Tommy (P) LAA 
Bench (P) Masterson, Justin (P) CLE
Bench (1B) Lind, Adam (1B) TOR

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Awesomus Maximus
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Awesomus Maximus » Mon Jul 16, 2012 7:58 pm

McAllister with a W and a QS. Should've stayed with the formula and stayed away from the gut feeling re: Tillman.

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JK Smiles
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby JK Smiles » Mon Jul 16, 2012 9:03 pm

Fred, between your recent guide and the advice here on the forum, I have to thank you. You truly are the yeoman of streaming analysis!

This is the first year I've attempted to stream starts. Up until now I've been using my gut more than statistical rigor to make decisions. Thanks for the excuse to add another 40 minutes to my already ballooning daily FB time. It's like an investment! Accruing prurient interest!

Anywho, the Reds offense without Votto will be much less formidable. What does that do to match-ups against them? Looking at Marco Estrada's start at Cini on Friday, for example, we see a team ranked 18th vs righties and 10th at home in OPS. Red-s flag! But Estrada is 1-1 lifetime against the Reds, with a 3.21 ERA overall in 14IP and 1.80 ERA in 5IP at Great American. His O-Swing% is 32.9 this year with a murderous 10.48 K/9.

Normally, the park factor alone would steer me away from this start. But outside of Votto, only Bruce and Phillips have hit well off Estrada in the past, and only the latter has been hitting well of late. So, all that said, Marco Estrada... viable stream or like my last one-night stand: hauntingly regretful?

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Men-in-Cleats » Tue Jul 17, 2012 9:11 am

Awesomus Maximus wrote:McAllister with a W and a QS. Should've stayed with the formula and stayed away from the gut feeling re: Tillman.

I did the same thing and started McAllister and Tillman and think the lesson there is that Tillman just didn't have the recent track record to justify it, even if he has the weak matchup and decent pedigree.

I must say that I have in the past utilized streaming on occasion by picking up the occasional hodgepadre or decent starter with a weak matchup in a good park but will probably do a bit more of it since my starters have been so unreliable (I'm talking to you Mr. Lester). We have an innings limit that is relatively low but it should allow me to be more choosy when I trot out my regular starters. Especially in weeks like this one where my typical guys have some questionable matchups. It allowed me to sit Lester vs. the Yanks this last weekend and instead go with Richards and Griffin and end up with a lot better stats than what Jonny boy would have gotten me. I streamed those two last night since Latos this week vs. AZ at home is a touch risky after he got roughed up a bit last time out. He's been a better pitcher on the road than at home so will definitely be more choosy whom I play him against. I'm not ready to do the extensive streaming strategy but will definitely use it in conjunction with my starters/relievers. It is always easier to find good pitching off of the WW than it is to find good hitting and one should definitely take advantage of that if one can.
RCL In Trout We Trust: Bosch Brothers
C-Pierzinski, 1B Goldy, 2B Cano, SS Castro, 3B Prado, MI Lowrie, CI Youk, OF Ellsbury, OF Morse, OF Aoki, OF Rios, OF Swisher, UT C. Johnson, DL Cespedes, BN Buck, BN Alonso
P's Scherzer, Samardzija, Ogando, Nathan, Perez, Hanrahan, Betancourt, Fujikawa (DL), Streamer, Streamer

12-Tm Mixed league(OBP): Three Out Rally
C-Perez, 1B Votto, 2B Rutledge, SS Castro, 3B Longoria, MI (rotating door), CI I. Davis, OF Jennings, OF Choo, OF Aioki, OF Morse, OF Cruz, UT Moss, UT Cain, BN Young Jr., BN Bonifacio, BN Schierholtz, BN J. Francisco
P's- Bumgarner, Zimmerman, Ryu, Estrada, Lincecum, Quintana, Chapman, Holland, Wilhelmsen, League, Francisco (DL)

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby huntrusty » Tue Jul 17, 2012 10:28 am

Vogelsong @ ATL?
8 team non-keeper ROTO
hitting: R, AVG, SB, OPS, HR, RBI, E
pitching: W, L, SV, K, ERA, WHIP, CG 1500 Inning limit (at 1326)

C J. Lucroy
1B J. Votto
2B D. Uggla
3B A. Ramirez
SS J. Rollins
CI A. Rizzo
MI J. Keppinger
LF R. Braun
CF M. Trout
RF T. Hunter
OF A. McCutchen
UT Y. Cespedes
UT H. Kendrick
BN A. Pagen
BN B. Moss
BN C. Jones
BN J. Jay
BN J. Kozma
BN W. Rosairo

J. Hefner
T. Wood
C. Lee
R. Vogelsong
R. Dempster
I. Kennedy

C. Kimbrel

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snky allgtr
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Location: Milwaukee

Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby snky allgtr » Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:28 am

So Niese was dropped in my league after his last start, I am trying to apply your system to see if he is a start @ WAS tonight...

21st home/ 14th vs LHP

33% o-Swing
away ERA 3.38
night ERA 5.08
vs WAS ERA 1.46 (2011)
7 ER in 7 IP vs CHC last outing

with no heads up matches yet this year, I grabbed 2011 stats and they look good. Problem (or problems) is, he got rocked last outing by a crappy team, WAS is 14th in OPS vs LHP, and Niese's night ERA is bad.

So would you recommend a SIT?

and PS, where do I find SIERA on fangraphs?

Thank you so much!

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby bearwah » Tue Jul 17, 2012 11:37 am

Niese: 2012 SIERA 3.66. 30-day SIERA 4.07. FYI, 30-day O-Swing is at 36.1%.

I'm certainly not the expert on this, but what I've read from Fred, the point is to avoid risk, not just minimize it. And even one or two red flags (WASH OPS 11th vs LHP, rocked in last outing) would indicate risk.

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