Streaming with The Fredsies

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snky allgtr
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby snky allgtr » Sat Jul 14, 2012 5:45 pm

Has 7 ER in 5 IP vs OAK changed your opinion on hanging onto De Vries for BAL?

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Simply Fred
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Simply Fred » Sat Jul 14, 2012 11:04 pm

yeah, didn't really measure up to expectations did he.

you get the next pick.

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snky allgtr
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby snky allgtr » Sun Jul 15, 2012 1:05 am

was maybe thinking Tuesday J. Lyles @ SD, but not so sure:

2 ER in 7 IP last start against MIL
1.42 ERA vs SD this season
.1% owned in ESPN
Padres strike out 21.3% of the time with a 29% O-swing %.
Padres 29th in OPS vs RHP.

Lyle's O-swing % is at 26%, and his away ERA is over 6, and night ERA almost 7.
And his career ERA is 5.25, I can't decide...

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Simply Fred » Sun Jul 15, 2012 7:19 am

That's what a snky allgtr do: keeps coming at you. We like tough skin here!

Would like to think the away era could be discounted because of PETCO. If that were the only red flag, I might go. But, you list a bunch more. SIT

When you think, "I can't decide." You have already decided. SIT. We want all of our ducks aligned. The only reason not to is if find ourselves short on streaming ops. We got five the first day out, and I am way ahead on GS, so I think, at least for now, we can be strict.

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Simply Fred » Sun Jul 15, 2012 7:20 am

ColeD-Vriese’d in the Buch-holes yesterday.
Combined: 11.1IP/8.74ERA/1.15WHIP/11K/0W.
You may want to climb back on the bank of the Withywindle and smoke a little of the Longbottom before jumping back in.
Take stock:
1)Throw in Benoit’s 3 ER in .2 IP and it still did NOT change my season standings, 58 out of 60 in pitching rank.
2)Is there ANYTHING we can learn from the day? Remember, I have streamed 135 GS so far (+64 over pace), so there is room to be even more rigid in selections.
DeVries gave up 7 ER on 6 H, 0 BB, in 5.0 IP. 3 HR @MIN? 90degrees and the wind was out @11mph. In a pitcher’s park, would have thought that safe, but maybe not?
Need help here. I am not a whiz regarding GB%,FB%,SIERA,etc. Is there anything in those stats (prior to yesterday’s outing) that was a red flag? (He had passed the checks with flying colors.)
Buchholz gave up 4 ER on 3H, 1 BB, in 6.1 IP. ZERO HR. First thoughts were that maybe he was rusty off the layoff. Nah. How is it even possible to give up 4 ER on 3H, 1BB, and 0 HR. Unless someone sees something else, I ring this one up as bad luck happens.
On the positive side, Grey reports:
“I hope the Awesomus built spreadsheet can work and auto-fill everything, that would be great... I believe Rudy's working with him so it can auto update like the player rater...” SWEEEEET!

In the meantime, will keep plugging away. Check the top for new STREAMs.
Last edited by Simply Fred on Mon Jul 16, 2012 9:05 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Abdoozy » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:07 am

Hey Fred,

LOVE your work and I would buy you a martini although I think you'd rather have a beer, can I interest you in an Oregon micro?

In retrospect how did you feel about Dickey's putative start yesterday at ATL. He ran into a bit of bad luck but that makes two straight bad starts in GA and two straight bad starts overall. I'm concerned that one of my two aces may actually be a joker.

Regarding streaming today, how do you like Billingsley at home vs SD? He shut them down hard at Petco on opening weekend but that seems long ago and in a season far away.

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Abdoozy » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:10 am

Simply Fred wrote:When you think, "I can't decide." You have already decided.


Geddy Lee called, he wants you to send him a dollar... :D

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Eddy » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:16 am

Fred, it looks like for a spot stream DeVries passed all the tests, but when looking at his season as a whole there were a lot of red flags.

Coming into last night, he had a 4.59 SIERA and an extremely alarming 2.2 HR/9. So rostering him based on previous starts would be a mistake. Now I know we never had the intention of doing that, but I'm guessing even the slightest wind blowing with DeVries is a gamble because he is so homer-prone. He also had a .222 BABIP coming into to yesterday's game, meaning he had been very lucky.

Looking back, this is a toughie. The big picture showed that this guy was going to hit a wall at 100 mph at any time, but the details of the game looked like a definite green light.

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snky allgtr
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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby snky allgtr » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:22 am

regarding Billingsley

PROS:
Padres are 29th in OPS vs RHP, and 19th in away games, they strike out 22.4% of the time vs RHP with a 29% O-swing %.
Bills had 8.1 IP with 0 ER @SD earlier this year (his ERA vs SD over the last 3 years is 3.11).

CONS:

However, Bills has a 1.40 WHIP on the season and his day ERA is 5.24. Opponents batting .276 against him on the season.

I'm no expert, but is seems there's some risk here...

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Re: Streaming with The Fredsies

Postby Simply Fred » Sun Jul 15, 2012 8:46 am

Abdoozy: Thank you! Thought about the cocktail thingy, but hopeful Rudy and Awesomus can do our work for us!

Will check Dickey when I have a little more time. I know Grey had replied he was hesitant for the long-term and wouldn't invest too heavily as a keeper.

Agree with Gator re: Billingsley.

Geddy Lee: had to google. a specific song reference?

I live in Eugene. You close by for that drink?

Eddy: email me fred_barker@comcast.net I NEED to get up to speed on these stats. DEF think there is room to improve our checks by adding one or more.


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