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 Post subject: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 7:53 am 
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C Geovany Soto
1B Justin Morneau
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Evan Longoria
SS Elvis Andrus
CI Joey Votto
MI Brandon Phillips
OF Justin Upton
OF Grady Sizemore
OF Curtis Granderson
OF Andre Ethier
OF Carlos Quentin
UTIL Gordon Beckham
BE Ian Stewart

SP Zach Greinke
SP Ricky Nolasco
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Jered Weaver
SP Max Scherzer
RP Heath Bell
RP Carlos Marmol
RP David Aardsma
RP Leo Nunez
BE Scott Kazmir
BE Stephen Strasburg

I don't like carrying a bat on my bench, but I was down to my last pick with $2 in the kitty, and could auto-buy anyone. There were a few SPs with upside (Sanchez, Matusz), but I figured getting Stewart would allow me to trade SO many different people (Kinsler, Phillips, Andrus, Votto, Beckham) for a high quality/above average arm.

Projections have me good everywhere except Runs (only 7 below what I want), even with an SP "missing" from my roster... and if Strasburg breaks camp (fingers crossed), I would think that his projections (110 Ks, 6 Ws) would go up a bit.


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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 9:02 am 
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Awesomus Maximus wrote:
C Geovany Soto
1B Justin Morneau
2B Ian Kinsler
3B Evan Longoria
SS Elvis Andrus
CI Joey Votto
MI Brandon Phillips
OF Justin Upton
OF Grady Sizemore
OF Curtis Granderson
OF Andre Ethier
OF Carlos Quentin
UTIL Gordon Beckham
BE Ian Stewart

SP Zach Greinke
SP Ricky Nolasco
SP Kevin Slowey
SP Jered Weaver
SP Max Scherzer
RP Heath Bell
RP Carlos Marmol
RP David Aardsma
RP Leo Nunez
BE Scott Kazmir
BE Stephen Strasburg

I don't like carrying a bat on my bench, but I was down to my last pick with $2 in the kitty, and could auto-buy anyone. There were a few SPs with upside (Sanchez, Matusz), but I figured getting Stewart would allow me to trade SO many different people (Kinsler, Phillips, Andrus, Votto, Beckham) for a high quality/above average arm.

Projections have me good everywhere except Runs (only 7 below what I want), even with an SP "missing" from my roster... and if Strasburg breaks camp (fingers crossed), I would think that his projections (110 Ks, 6 Ws) would go up a bit.


Stewart at $2 is such a steal that even on your bench it's worth it. I'm not a fan of Scherzer and Kazmir but in a 10 team league there will be guys to fill in for them if they dump like I think they will. Your hitting is very nice. One of the best I've seen.

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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 9:19 am 
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I don't like Kazmir, either. When I nominated him (he's valued at $7 on ESPN), half the managers still had some cash, but they all let me take him for $1. Guess the group was smarter than I thought... or they all had a firm plan on who they wanted. I took Marmol $2, Aardsma $1, Nunez $1, Strasburg $2 and Stewart $2 AFTER the Kazmir nomination.

Scherzer I think could go either way, which is why I'd like to deal (Phillips, preferably) for a more reliable arm. Then again, as you pointed out, SPs are always going to be available on the FA list... might be worth holding onto the extra batter so I have some flexibility if/when someone slumps or gets hurt.


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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 2:02 pm 
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That is a great team, and I, for one, would like to learn more about how you did it.

Any chance you could post the prices you paid for each player?

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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 5:28 pm 
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Sure, I'd be happy to help. The prices paid are as follows:

C Geovany Soto 2
1B Justin Morneau 20
2B Ian Kinsler 21
3B Evan Longoria 31
SS Elvis Andrus 9
2B/SS Brandon Phillips 15
1B/3B Joey Votto 16
OF Justin Upton 24
OF Grady Sizemore 20
OF Curtis Granderson 14
OF Andre Ethier 12
OF Carlos Quentin 10
UTIL Gordon Beckham 10
P Zack Greinke 20
P Ricky Nolasco 10
P Kevin Slowey 2
P Heath Bell 8
P Jered Weaver 4
P Max Scherzer 2
P Scott Kazmir 1
P Carlos Marmol 2
P David Aardsma 2
BE Leo Nunez 1
BE Stephen Strasburg 2
BE Ian Stewart 2

A couple things to note that were specific to this draft. First, one manager was clearly playing a "studs & scrubs" strategy, as he blew an enormous amount of cash on Pujols, Hanley, Fielder and Braun. He also bid hard on most of the other top guys (either overall or by position), so even though Utley, Teixeira, A-Rod, Mauer and Lincecum went to other managers, they paid a higher than average price to get them. You can't count on this happening in every auction draft, but it's also not rare. Despite the fact that Utley is the one player I'm willing to reach a bit to get this year, I stuck to my $35 spending cap on him (he ended up selling for $45) and didn't get any of the aforementioned players. Second, though I'm not complaining about getting Ethier, I pressed the "BID" button when it read $10, but it didn't register my bid until two others had gone through (all within a fraction of a second). I would have taken him at $10, but wasn't planning on going higher... would have rather had that money to put towards a better pitcher and I knew I could get the numbers I was after from a cheaper OF. Third, all managers were present at the start of the draft and left as they got to or near the $1/slot range, so there was no out of the ordinary bot play... just your standard "position-specific crap nominations to close out a bot" type stuff.

So this wasn't what I would necessarily call an average/typical draft, but these are the type of results I can get regularly in a 10 team, 5x5, $260 auction using my methods. You can look at some of my previous posts in this forum to see other teams I've drafted recently. The last few are on par with this team, I believe.

If you're looking for some specific advice on auction drafting strategy, you should check out Grey's article here:

http://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-au ... -strategy/

Grey's advice is good stuff, and I posted a bunch below the article with some detailed "rules" that I follow, as well as some deeper strategy. There's some other, more basic stuff that goes into my strategy, but I don't know if you're interested in getting that involved. Let me know and I'd be happy to go into more detail. Hope this helps.


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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 5:46 pm 
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Hey - that's great. Many thanks!

I've soaked up Grey's strategy post (and your associated contributions there and here in the forum), but it's good to see it brought to life in the form of actual results - particularly with such a good team.

My upcoming auction (10-team keeper, $300 cap) isn't exactly typical, either. Couple of other Razzballers involved, 9 of the guys are in the U.S. and I'm in New Zealand. So they draft in person (lot of big spenders on top guys there too) and I follow, bid etc over Gmail chat.

Last year was my first one (I inherited a team) and made a few rookie mistakes:

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=1855&start=0

so looking to go a bit better this year!

Would certainly be interested in hearing some of your basic strategy points. Thanks again.

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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 7:26 pm 
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I covered pretty much all of my "mid-level" strategy in the comments below Grey's article. The only other advice I have is either "based-on-human-psychology deep" or "the basics". These are the basics :P :

The obvious first step to drafting a well rounded team is preparation. For me, that means researching players (knowing who is a power guy, who is a speed/average guy, etc.) and not just for the top 50 batters, but more importantly for the names you won't hear a lot about. Let's say you're down to three OF slots to fill with $6 remaining, you're good on speed but still need more power, and Nyjer Morgan is about to sell for $1. Do you try to get him for the very good price of $2? You need to know off the top of your head that he's a speed guy, and shake your head while you watch him sell for $1. Spend that money on Hawpe, or Kubel, or Snider.

The other part of your research should be in the draft room. Mock drafts can be wonky, especially with the elite players, but you can find out important details regarding middle of the road players (like whether people are regularly reaching for Gordon Beckham, or which catchers are left to grab for $1 more often than not, or who draws more money from your competition when you nominate them early... Alfonso Soriano or Chipper Jones).

After research, you need planning. Have a quick cheat sheet you can hit that has, for each slot:

1.) your ideal player (try to keep all of these reasonable, meaning create a roster that you could conceivably get within your budget... not a roster you'd create if you had unlimited funds)
2.) a 2nd choice (don't put Utley as your first choice at 2B and Kinsler as your second... that's obvious)
3.) a 3rd choice (if applicable) that defines your absolute cutoff point (meaning, "if I don't get this guy, I'm punting the slot")
4.) your punt choice (punting a category doesn't mean throwing in the towel, it just means you're going to wait on a "sure buy" for a fair/good price... for example, Chris Iannetta is a good punt choice for catcher because you should always be able to get him for $1 and he's worth all 100 pennies)

Also have a dollar amount that will be your hard cutoff for each of your ideal players. For instance, Utley is the most "expensive" player I go after, and my cutoff is $35. He is almost always nominated before any other player I'm after, so I find out right away if I will get him... and if I do, whether I can get him below my cutoff. Three things can happen:

1.) I don't get him. I know two things. First, my 2nd choice is Brandon Phillips (obviously I'll take Kinsler if he falls at a good price, but I'm not going to reach for him). Second, I have "extra" money to spend on my other ideal players.
2.) I get Utley at $35. I know that I'm still probably over budget for my overall ideal roster.
3.) I get Utley for less than $35. I don't have any "extra" money for my ideal players, but I'm closer to being on budget.

Next up is usually Longoria, and my hard cutoff for him is $32. If I managed to get Utley (whatever the price), I'll stick to my hard cutoff on Longoria. If I didn't get Utley, I'll allow myself to go a few bucks over the cutoff to get Longoria ($34-36). Same rules apply based on the results of the Longoria war.

After the first 3-5 guys, I change gears a little. If I get my 3 most expensive ideal players, I know I need to get some good deals down the road, because I'm over budget. If I only land 2-3 of my 5 most expensive players, I probably still need to get a few deals, but I'm closer to budget. If I only land 1 or 2 of my top 5, I know I need to press hard to get my second choices. The tough part about an auction draft is that, by this point, a few of your second choices may have already hit the auction block. If/When this happens, I'll usually bid up to what I think is fair value (again, you need to do your research to know what this is) and if you get him, great... cross off your first choice and know that you're under budget and can spend a little extra elsewhere. If you don't get him, no worries, you still have your first choice to go after.

Personal preference here, but I don't go after pitchers as a general rule. Lincecum, F-Her and Halladay I pretty much don't even bother looking at. Zach Greinke and C.C. Sabathia I will go up to $20-22 (depending on whether I have "extra" money from other purchases by the time they're nominated) but have no trouble letting them go once they hit the $23 area. Reason being, there are almost always good deals not too far below these guys. Hamels, Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee, Nolasco, Kershaw, Gallardo, Billingsley, Wandy, Jered Weaver, Garza... in this group of guys I seem to always find at least 2-3 of them going for a very good price (meaning a few dollars less than what I would consider fair value). If I got a Greinke/Sabathia, I'll look for two of these deals. If I didn't, I'll look for three of them.

I've gotta' get to bed, but I'll post anything else I think of tomorrow. One last thing tonight... if you have a spreadsheet program, use it. Even for something simple like this:

Column A, list the slots your roster has
Column B, list the dollar amount of your hard cap for your ideal player (when added up, this should equal your total budget)
Column C, put this function in
Code:
=SUM(B?-D?)
and change "?"s to whatever the row number is
Column D, list the same dollar amounts as Column B to start the draft
Column E, list your ideal players.
At the bottom of Column D, put this function in
Code:
=SUM(C?:C?)
replacing the "?"s with the number of the first row and last row.

Now, when you draft a slot, delete the name from the slot (just so it's easier to see which slots still need to be filled) and put the actual dollar amount spent for that slot in Column D. The formula will automatically tell you whether you're on budget, below budget of over budget. For example, I have 35 in for Chase Utley. Let's say I get him for $32... I delete his name from my 2B row and change the "35" in Column D to "32" (leave the "35" in Column B alone, don't touch Column B... in fact, if you can, hide both Column B and Column C to make things easier to look at). When I do this, the number at the bottom of Column D changes from "0" (meaning exactly on budget) to "3" (meaning I have an extra $3 to put towards another player). Towards the end of the draft, the $/slot that ESPN provides is helpful, but in the middle of the draft, I find this spreadsheet setup invaluable. It tells me whether I can go over the $8 hard cap I have on Denard Span or if I need to start looking for cheaper options. It's the difference between going for Gordon Beckham at my CI slot and Ian Stewart at MI, or going for Ian Stewart at CI and settling for Chase Headley at MI. It's a big difference, and I wouldn't know which route my finances demanded I employ without this spreadsheet setup.


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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Mon Mar 15, 2010 7:37 pm 
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Awesomus Maximus indeed.

Thanks so much - really appreciate it.

BTW - have you checked out Lou's War Room spreadsheet?

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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Tue Mar 16, 2010 5:44 am 
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Steve wrote:
Awesomus Maximus indeed.

Thanks so much - really appreciate it.

BTW - have you checked out Lou's War Room spreadsheet?



No problem, happy to help... as long as we don't end up in the same league together. :P

I tried to use the War Room, but it only works properly in Excel, which I don't have. I've built my own version in a different program over the past couple of months, and I suspect it is fairly similar to the basics of Lou's. I'm currently running mine off of Grey's projections, but I'm planning on adding the one's that the War Room uses (CHONE, I believe?) so I can take a look at two different opinions. Once I do that, I'll be able to add the other teams in my league, see their projections and get an idea of where my team is in the projected standings. Can't do that right now since Grey's projections only go so far, and there are always a few managers that pick guys Grey hasn't covered.


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 Post subject: Re: Latest 10 Team, 5x5, Roto, $260 Auction
PostPosted: Sun Mar 28, 2010 1:20 am 
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Had the auction this afternoon - all the details below. Didn't spend all my money! Kept track as best I could, but was doing an H2H draft at the same time for about a third of the auction. Plus - I'm in New Zealand and the other nine guys were in the US drafting in person, so I was being kept up to date/placing bids via Gmail chat so was a full time job keeping up. Anyway, interested in yur thoughts...

And here's how it ended up:

C Montero $7
1B Votto $26 (kept)
2B Cano $15 (kept)
3B Stewart $5 (kept)
SS Reyes $35 (kept)
CI Dunn $15 (kept)
MI Desmond $1
OF Car-Go $5 (kept)
OF Grandy $15 (kept)
OF Bay $23
Util BJ Upton $20
SP Cain $15 (kept)
SP Bills $17
SP Baker $9
RP Wilson $9
RP Dotel $12
P Ubaldo $15
P Oswalt $7
BN Pence $9
BN Slowey $7
BN Chapman $4
BN Nunez $9
BN Madson $3
BN Lyon $1
BN Alvarez $1

Better team than last year I think, as I watched the money more carefully. So carefully, in fact, that I had $15 left over - idiot! That said, with approx 60 top guys kept and only 3 OF, there wasn't a whole lot to throw your money around on after the initial flurry of big spending (Pujols $70, Tex $45 etc). Still...

Didn't really have a spot for Pence, but $9 seemed a nice price, same with $4 for Chapman. Spent too much on a catcher though. Fire away...

10 team keeper, $300 cap.

C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, Util, SP, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P. 7 x BN.

Scoring categories:

Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Strikeouts (K), Batting Average (AVG), On-base Percentage (OBP), Games Started (GS), Wins (W), Losses (L), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP).

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