I covered pretty much all of my "mid-level" strategy in the comments below Grey's article. The only other advice I have is either "based-on-human-psychology deep" or "the basics". These are the basics
:
The obvious first step to drafting a well rounded team is preparation. For me, that means researching players (knowing who is a power guy, who is a speed/average guy, etc.) and not just for the top 50 batters, but more importantly for the names you won't hear a lot about. Let's say you're down to three OF slots to fill with $6 remaining, you're good on speed but still need more power, and Nyjer Morgan is about to sell for $1. Do you try to get him for the very good price of $2? You need to know off the top of your head that he's a speed guy, and shake your head while you watch him sell for $1. Spend that money on Hawpe, or Kubel, or Snider.
The other part of your research should be in the draft room. Mock drafts can be wonky, especially with the elite players, but you can find out important details regarding middle of the road players (like whether people are regularly reaching for Gordon Beckham, or which catchers are left to grab for $1 more often than not, or who draws more money from your competition when you nominate them early... Alfonso Soriano or Chipper Jones).
After research, you need planning. Have a quick cheat sheet you can hit that has, for each slot:
1.) your ideal player (try to keep all of these reasonable, meaning create a roster that you could conceivably get within your budget... not a roster you'd create if you had unlimited funds)
2.) a 2nd choice (don't put Utley as your first choice at 2B and Kinsler as your second... that's obvious)
3.) a 3rd choice (if applicable) that defines your absolute cutoff point (meaning, "if I don't get this guy, I'm punting the slot")
4.) your punt choice (punting a category doesn't mean throwing in the towel, it just means you're going to wait on a "sure buy" for a fair/good price... for example, Chris Iannetta is a good punt choice for catcher because you should always be able to get him for $1 and he's worth all 100 pennies)
Also have a dollar amount that will be your hard cutoff for each of your ideal players. For instance, Utley is the most "expensive" player I go after, and my cutoff is $35. He is almost always nominated before any other player I'm after, so I find out right away if I will get him... and if I do, whether I can get him below my cutoff. Three things can happen:
1.) I don't get him. I know two things. First, my 2nd choice is Brandon Phillips (obviously I'll take Kinsler if he falls at a good price, but I'm not going to reach for him). Second, I have "extra" money to spend on my other ideal players.
2.) I get Utley at $35. I know that I'm still probably over budget for my overall ideal roster.
3.) I get Utley for less than $35. I don't have any "extra" money for my ideal players, but I'm closer to being on budget.
Next up is usually Longoria, and my hard cutoff for him is $32. If I managed to get Utley (whatever the price), I'll stick to my hard cutoff on Longoria. If I didn't get Utley, I'll allow myself to go a few bucks over the cutoff to get Longoria ($34-36). Same rules apply based on the results of the Longoria war.
After the first 3-5 guys, I change gears a little. If I get my 3 most expensive ideal players, I know I need to get some good deals down the road, because I'm over budget. If I only land 2-3 of my 5 most expensive players, I probably still need to get a few deals, but I'm closer to budget. If I only land 1 or 2 of my top 5, I know I need to press hard to get my second choices. The tough part about an auction draft is that, by this point, a few of your second choices may have already hit the auction block. If/When this happens, I'll usually bid up to what I think is fair value (again, you need to do your research to know what this is) and if you get him, great... cross off your first choice and know that you're under budget and can spend a little extra elsewhere. If you don't get him, no worries, you still have your first choice to go after.
Personal preference here, but I don't go after pitchers as a general rule. Lincecum, F-Her and Halladay I pretty much don't even bother looking at. Zach Greinke and C.C. Sabathia I will go up to $20-22 (depending on whether I have "extra" money from other purchases by the time they're nominated) but have no trouble letting them go once they hit the $23 area. Reason being, there are almost
always good deals not too far below these guys. Hamels, Josh Johnson, Cliff Lee, Nolasco, Kershaw, Gallardo, Billingsley, Wandy, Jered Weaver, Garza... in this group of guys I seem to always find at least 2-3 of them going for a very good price (meaning a few dollars less than what I would consider fair value). If I got a Greinke/Sabathia, I'll look for two of these deals. If I didn't, I'll look for three of them.
I've gotta' get to bed, but I'll post anything else I think of tomorrow. One last thing tonight... if you have a spreadsheet program, use it. Even for something simple like this:
Column A, list the slots your roster has
Column B, list the dollar amount of your hard cap for your ideal player (when added up, this should equal your total budget)
Column C, put this function in
Code:
=SUM(B?-D?)
and change "?"s to whatever the row number is
Column D, list the same dollar amounts as Column B to start the draft
Column E, list your ideal players.
At the bottom of Column D, put this function in
Code:
=SUM(C?:C?)
replacing the "?"s with the number of the first row and last row.
Now, when you draft a slot, delete the name from the slot (just so it's easier to see which slots still need to be filled) and put the actual dollar amount spent for that slot in Column D. The formula will automatically tell you whether you're on budget, below budget of over budget. For example, I have 35 in for Chase Utley. Let's say I get him for $32... I delete his name from my 2B row and change the "35" in Column D to "32" (leave the "35" in Column B alone, don't touch Column B... in fact, if you can, hide both Column B and Column C to make things easier to look at). When I do this, the number at the bottom of Column D changes from "0" (meaning exactly on budget) to "3" (meaning I have an extra $3 to put towards another player). Towards the end of the draft, the $/slot that ESPN provides is helpful, but in the middle of the draft, I find this spreadsheet setup invaluable. It tells me whether I can go over the $8 hard cap I have on Denard Span or if I need to start looking for cheaper options. It's the difference between going for Gordon Beckham at my CI slot and Ian Stewart at MI, or going for Ian Stewart at CI and settling for Chase Headley at MI. It's a big difference, and I wouldn't know which route my finances demanded I employ without this spreadsheet setup.
