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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:07 pm 
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While I have very much enjoyed writing for this thread, the experience has also made me appreciate the amount of work that goes into generating new content on a day-to-day basis. So, in all sincerity, hats off to Grey for keeping this site going. I have seen enough fantasy sites languish to know that Razzball is an exception (and a quality one too).


Thanks, appreciated.

As for the categories, I agree with what you think you have sown up and what is still up for grabs.

Lolhamburger wrote:
1. Percival's performance since his return from DL has been extremely disappointing. Right now, I am considering dropping Casilla to pick up Wheeler. Dropping Casilla would mean that I go without anyone at MI, but if I am going to win the current matchup anyway, that would not matter. The question, of course, is whether I feel confident about winning the current matchup. It would be the height of foolishness to preserve an advantage in saves at the cost of my playoff chances! Note that I would not be so nervous if my other closers were more secure. With Wagner and Saito pitching again and soon to return, I am faced with possibly losing the closing services of both Ayala and Broxton by the middle of next week. If Percival loses his gig due to injury or ineffectiveness and I do not manage to grab Wheeler in time, I could be in real jeopardy.


I'd grab Wheeler. I do think Ayala's run as closer could come to an end soon. re: Saito -- I wouldn't be surprised if him and Broxton share duties.

Lolhamburger wrote:
2. Longoria has been activated, but I am keeping him stashed in my DL spot for the foreseeable future. Longoria technically had an arm injury, and not a wrist injury, but I have zero faith that we will see much power from him for the remainder of the year.


I agree.

Lolhamburger wrote:
3. Cameron is out with a sore left knee tonight. And he has not performed all that well during this week - he has gone 2 for 16 with 2 runs and nothing else for me. If Dickerson were available, I might have already made a switch. Right now, my likely options are Milledge, Butler or Choo. I am staying put because I can afford to at the moment, and I believe that Cameron has the highest upside of this bunch. If he is hot anytime after next week, I could end up being very thankful.


I wouldn't be too patient and would consider making a move. Cruz has the most upside, Butler's can stay hot for a few weeks and Dukes and Milledge are pretty similar.

Lolhamburger wrote:
4. I am not sure why Lilly is 99.2% owned in ESPN, while W. Rodriguez is 22.7% owned and Wolf is 20.4% owned. Those pitchers are not that different, in my mind. J. Johnson is 45.5% owned and Arroyo is 41% owned. Lilly gets St. Louis next and, I think, J. Johnson is due for Washington. I have to think more on this, but I might be holding onto the wrong pitcher.


I don't think anyone can get their heads wrapped ownership in ESPN leagues and I think it's more because of the lack of active owners than anything. I'd move to Johnson.

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Grey Albright
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 9:22 pm 
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Here is a look at the numbers for J. Johnson:

His K/9 is 7.92, his K/BB is 2.80 and his GB% is 45.0%. His BABIP is .311 so he has been very slightly unlucky there, but that is counter-balanced by his HR/F rate of 7.8% and his strand rate of 78.4%, both of which are lucky. Taken all together, his component or expected ERA is around 3.75, which is somewhat higher than his current ERA of 3.25.

These are the stats of a pitcher who should be owned in a 12-team league. And J. Johnson, based on the numbers, is a better pitcher than Lilly, so I am making to switch. The tough thing, of course, is that Lilly is a pitcher who should also be owned in a 12-team league. It feels a bit absurd to drop him, even though it is the right move.

The fact that the Marlins play in the cavernous Dolphin Stadium is a plus.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 9:36 pm 
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Hahaha. All I can do is laugh. I am such a retard. Another team picked up J. Johnson while I was looking at numbers and typing my last post. I know that I am doing absolutely nothing about disguising my identity in describing my league. If this happens one more time...


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 9:58 pm 
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I forgot that J. Johnson is starting tomorrow against St. Louis. (Previously, I was thinking of the matchup next week, which seems like it will be Washington.) Anyway, the team that picked him up tonight is in full streaming mode in a closely battled matchup. I will have to see what happens tomorrow. Still a bit down though, since my review of the stats got my excited.

Casilla is out, Wheeler is in.

Cameron is out, N. Cruz is in. What changed my mind is the sore knee. The Brewers should rest Cameron for at least another day, and with no one manning my MI spot, I did not feel good about my UT spot also (effectively) not being used.

B. Wilson pitched so-so tonight and got another save. I knew exactly what I was getting myself into when I drafted him very late as the second from last closer to come off the boards (the last was C. Wilson), and I would absolutely make that same choice again. I got him in round 20, one pick after Barry Zito, if you can believe that.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 10:05 pm 
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I also drafted McLouth with the 241st overall pick, or one pick after B. Wilson. McLouth stole another base tonight and now has 5 SBs since the start of September. My personal theory is that, having gotten past 20 HRs, McClouth is now intentially being more aggresive on the base paths so he can end up as a 20-20 guy for the season. Too bad B.J. Upton, Rios and Victorino can't all decide that they want to be 20 HR guys too and make that happen suddenly. I was expecting more power from those three, though I really can't complain since I've gotten way more SBs than I had predicted at the same time. Rios has been playing better lately.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 12:29 am 
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That is hilarious about losing Johnson while you were typing up that.

With Victorino, I expected about this. With Rios and that swing that he showed at the HR Derby last year, I expected huge things and, maybe I'm silly, but I still think he can do more power-wise. Upton said recently that he has an injury that is hurting his power, he should be better next year and I would think so. He has effortless power like you see in Alfonso Soriano.

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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:23 am 
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As most people following this site will know, there is a doubleheader between the NYM and PHI today. My only choices among the FAs would be Daniel Murphy or Pedro Feliz. So, hrm, no thanks. Neither seems like a sure bet to play in both games. Oooo, I see Jose A. Reyes is available too. Wonder why he's only owned by 0.3% of the teams in ESPN? I heard this Reyes guy was supposed to be a good player on the Mets team...


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:58 am 
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Lolhamburger wrote:
Wonder why he's only owned by 0.3% of the teams in ESPN? I heard this Reyes guy was supposed to be a good player on the Mets team...


Ha, maybe you can get A. Reyes at 2nd too.

_________________
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 9:31 pm 
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Posts: 91
Update for Sunday, September 7. This is officially the halfway mark of my semifinals matchup. I am currently winning 8-2. I still have solid leads in the following categories:

HRs - I lead 11 to 6.
RBIs - I lead 46 to 33.
Steals - I lead 14 to 4.
Avg - I lead .314 to .249. I currently have 315 at bats.
Saves - I lead 10 to 3.
WHIP - I lead 1.24 to 1.45. I currently have 46.2 IP.

1. Since Texas is off tomorrow, I dropped N. Cruz for Cust. Cust has not been super hot recently, but he also has not been super cold. I am hoping to get a HR tomorrow. The risk of seeing a 0-4 line is worth taking. I have not made up my mind yet, but will probably go back to N. Cruz on Tuesday.

2. Wagner had a setback earlier today. I would have been happier if Saito had a setback, but I will take what I can get. Of course, Ayala was used in a non-save situation tonight and gave up two hits and an earned run. Terrific. I can hardly contain my excitement at the possibility of using Ayala for the rest of the season.

3. J. Johnson was dropped so yay! I am 12 of 12 in waiver priority, so it costs me nothing to put in a waiver claim, which I will do. Still irrationally reluctant to drop Lilly, however.

4. I might have missed this, but I did not see anyone commenting on McLouth getting his 20th steal before the eye injury. Even if he does not come back, he still reached the 20-20 milestone for this year. By the way, I am not too worried about McLouth's injury. Based on Rotoworld's report, it sounds like the injury was not as severe as it initially appeared. I am reasonably confident that McLouth will be playing significantly for the rest of the year.

5. Lincecum is pitching tomorrow. I do not understand why he has not been shut down already. I guess being in the race for Cy Young has something to do with it. I would be nervous to draft him next year, though his comparable is Oswalt, who has always held up relatively well, so who knows?


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sun Sep 07, 2008 10:23 pm 
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Lolhamburger wrote:
Update for Sunday, September 7. This is officially the halfway mark of my semifinals matchup. I am currently winning 8-2. I still have solid leads in the following categories:

HRs - I lead 11 to 6.
RBIs - I lead 46 to 33.
Steals - I lead 14 to 4.
Avg - I lead .314 to .249. I currently have 315 at bats.
Saves - I lead 10 to 3.
WHIP - I lead 1.24 to 1.45. I currently have 46.2 IP.

1. Since Texas is off tomorrow, I dropped N. Cruz for Cust. Cust has not been super hot recently, but he also has not been super cold. I am hoping to get a HR tomorrow. The risk of seeing a 0-4 line is worth taking. I have not made up my mind yet, but will probably go back to N. Cruz on Tuesday.

2. Wagner had a setback earlier today. I would have been happier if Saito had a setback, but I will take what I can get. Of course, Ayala was used in a non-save situation tonight and gave up two hits and an earned run. Terrific. I can hardly contain my excitement at the possibility of using Ayala for the rest of the season.

3. J. Johnson was dropped so yay! I am 12 of 12 in waiver priority, so it costs me nothing to put in a waiver claim, which I will do. Still irrationally reluctant to drop Lilly, however.

4. I might have missed this, but I did not see anyone commenting on McLouth getting his 20th steal before the eye injury. Even if he does not come back, he still reached the 20-20 milestone for this year. By the way, I am not too worried about McLouth's injury. Based on Rotoworld's report, it sounds like the injury was not as severe as it initially appeared. I am reasonably confident that McLouth will be playing significantly for the rest of the year.

5. Lincecum is pitching tomorrow. I do not understand why he has not been shut down already. I guess being in the race for Cy Young has something to do with it. I would be nervous to draft him next year, though his comparable is Oswalt, who has always held up relatively well, so who knows?


That's good news on McLouth.

I'm not optimistic on Wagner. A setback with his elbow this late sounds like doom.

Lincecum/Oswalt comparison will be apt in three years if Lincecum is still going strong, right now I think it could be trouble. Too early to tell. Might not know until it's too late.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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