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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 11:52 am 
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Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2008 11:48 am
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I've been lurking with interest. Good to see H2H-specific strategy for a change.

My question is this ... who are the most likely 2 start pitchers next week against losers like Nationals, Mariners, and Royals?

Big Mike


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 1:07 pm 
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Hey Mike - great question. I'm going to do some digging. In the meantime, I started a thread for us to all chime in with potentially good pitching matchups for next week. 2 and 1 start guys.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 1:10 pm 
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peter wrote:
Hey Mike - great question. I'm going to do some digging. In the meantime, I started a thread for us to all chime in with potentially good pitching matchups for next week. 2 and 1 start guys.


Please pardon the newbee ... point me to the new thread?

Thanks,
Mike

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MRCAR

“You win pennants in the off season when you build your teams with trades and free agents.” –Earl Weaver


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 1:12 pm 
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Of course - no problem. If you hit the link on the top left "View active topics" then look for "Good Pitching Matchups - Week 24"


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 2:53 pm 
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Nice work, Peter.

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Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 10:42 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am
Posts: 91
Update for Thursday, September 4.

1. Spot starting Butler turned out to be rewarding. 3 for 8 with 3 runs and 3 RBIs is nothing to sneeze at.

2. The current score is 7-3 in my favor, though that does not really reveal the significant movements within each scoring category today. In runs, I am now losing by only 1, and in RBIs, my lead has extended to 11. I credit roster management for both developments. If you look at my opponent's team, his batters actually had a better day on a per player basis than mine. The difference was that I managed to squeeze 39 at bats from my batters, compared to the total of 15 at bats that my opponent had from his team today. Active roster management in H2H is one of the most fundamental ways of reducing the effects of luck on one's chances at winning.

3. Another team dropped Stewart earlier today to stream pitching. Stewart has not been regularly used by Colorado this past week, but assuming that he did not permanently lose playing time to J. Baker, I might consider using him at my MI spot. With a 2 HR lead at the moment, I am looking for power, and Stewart might be the most likely source from the slim FA pickings.

4. I have been and continue to be worried about the pitching categories. No problem with saves, of course. However, until tonight's performance by Kazmir, I was behind in Ks, wins and ERA. In my mind, that is a horrible situation. And that is partially due to the way that I look at streaming. Whenever I resort to streaming in H2H, I never expect improvements in ERA or WHIP I always think of streaming as sacrificing ERA and WHIP for a chance to win in Ks (likely) and wins (difficult to predict); if ERA or WHIP drops, that is really gravy to me. A situation where I am behind in Ks, wins and ERA is challenging because it is possible that streaming will not be enough for me to overcome the shortfall in wins (because it is more random) and at the same time lose ERA and WHIP. Scary. Too early to decide, but at some point, I probably need to ask myself whether I should pull all of my pitchers if my lead in saves is insurmountable and I am ahead in ERA and WHIP.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Thu Sep 04, 2008 11:28 pm 
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re: Stewart, you have an open slot anyway, right? I can't see how it could hurt you to slot him in.

re: pitching categories -- Hopefully this works out, but I really dislike pulling pitchers. It's so much better to win going after it, rather than being passive.

_________________
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:17 pm 
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Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am
Posts: 91
While I have very much enjoyed writing for this thread, the experience has also made me appreciate the amount of work that goes into generating new content on a day-to-day basis. So, in all sincerity, hats off to Grey for keeping this site going. I have seen enough fantasy sites languish to know that Razzball is an exception (and a quality one too).

At the moment, I am winning 9-1 in my semi-final match. Since the playoff matches last two weeks, we are near the half-way mark, and being up 9-1 is not a bad place to be. The score, however, is a bit uninformative in my opinion since it does not reveal how close the categories are, so let me break things down:

Runs - I am winning 40-38. This is effectively a tie in my mind, and I can easily lose this category in the end considering that my opponent did better than me in this category during the regular season.

HRs - I am winning 9-6. I consider this to be a real lead. Although my opponent also did better than I did in this category during the regular season, I think that my lineup is capable of winning this category after being spotted by 3 HRs. It helps that my opponent has lost two Carloses (or Carli) - Lee and Quentin.

RBIs - I am winning 41-30. I do not think it is likely that my opponent will be able to catch up. Nothing is impossible, of course.

Steals - I am winning 11-4. I have B.J. Upton, Rios, Victorino, Hart and McLouth. Think this category is mine.

Avg - I am winning .310 to .275. I can see the gap closing, but this is a very real lead, considering that I already have over 250 at bats in 6 days.

Ks - I am winning 46-40. Like runs, I see no advantage here. The score is effectively a tie.

Wins - The score is tied 2-2, this category currently counts as a win for me as the "home" team, but I fully expect to lose this category. During the regular season, this was by far my worst category.

Saves - I am winning 7-3. I am not nervous about losing this category, but pissed that I am not ahead 10-3. Lots of blame to be shared in this category - C. Perez, Percival, etc.

ERA - I am losing this category 4.99 to 4.25. Lilly had a bad outing for me, which I can accept. I had a feeling that I should not have started a flyball pitcher at Cincinnati. My closers have done me a lot of harm here.

WHIP - I am winning 1.24 to 1.54. This category should be a win for me. A WHIP of 1.54 after a full week's worth of pitching is difficult to overcome.

All in all, things are looking good at the moment. Keeping fingers crossed, though.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 7:51 pm 
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Posts: 91
Some notes about pending roster decisions:

1. Percival's performance since his return from DL has been extremely disappointing. Right now, I am considering dropping Casilla to pick up Wheeler. Dropping Casilla would mean that I go without anyone at MI, but if I am going to win the current matchup anyway, that would not matter. The question, of course, is whether I feel confident about winning the current matchup. It would be the height of foolishness to preserve an advantage in saves at the cost of my playoff chances! Note that I would not be so nervous if my other closers were more secure. With Wagner and Saito pitching again and soon to return, I am faced with possibly losing the closing services of both Ayala and Broxton by the middle of next week. If Percival loses his gig due to injury or ineffectiveness and I do not manage to grab Wheeler in time, I could be in real jeopardy.

Dropping Casilla could make sense if I think that I will be dropping Ayala or Broxton by sometime next week to fill my MI spot.

Then again, Percival is a good example of not dropping the replacement immediately when an incumbent closer returns. Sometimes, the incumbent closer comes back too early or should not have come back at all. As someone who is aggresive in making roster moves, I dropped Rauch earlier this year when C. Cordero came back from DL. Oops.

2. Longoria has been activated, but I am keeping him stashed in my DL spot for the foreseeable future. Longoria technically had an arm injury, and not a wrist injury, but I have zero faith that we will see much power from him for the remainder of the year.

3. Cameron is out with a sore left knee tonight. And he has not performed all that well during this week - he has gone 2 for 16 with 2 runs and nothing else for me. If Dickerson were available, I might have already made a switch. Right now, my likely options are Milledge, Butler or Choo. I am staying put because I can afford to at the moment, and I believe that Cameron has the highest upside of this bunch. If he is hot anytime after next week, I could end up being very thankful.

4. I am not sure why Lilly is 99.2% owned in ESPN, while W. Rodriguez is 22.7% owned and Wolf is 20.4% owned. Those pitchers are not that different, in my mind. J. Johnson is 45.5% owned and Arroyo is 41% owned. Lilly gets St. Louis next and, I think, J. Johnson is due for Washington. I have to think more on this, but I might be holding onto the wrong pitcher.


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 Post subject: Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread
PostPosted: Sat Sep 06, 2008 8:02 pm 
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Posts: 91
Guess I should keep my eyes on B. Wood, N. Cruz and Dukes as possible replacement for Cameron too. Since I have other sources of steals, Cameron is slightly less valuable to me possibly than others.


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