Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

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Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Sat Sep 20, 2008 4:31 pm

Re: Baek. His ERA is actually worse at Petco than on the road. I realize that he got blown up twice in a row on the road, but before that he held the mets to 2 earned runs at Shea. He's also been blown up a few times at home. Maybe's he's not a bad road pitcher, but simply a bad pitcher?

Will consider Sonnastine and Volstad, but the former is going against Liriano and the latter is facing a good Phillies offense. You'll have to let me know if I'm not thinking clearly.

Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Sat Sep 20, 2008 4:37 pm

Good god, does Percival suck. I think that I'm better without him, even if it means picking up Billingsley for his SD start on Tuesday. Who gets the next save in Tampa? Certainly not Percival if the opportunity comes tomorrow night.

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Sat Sep 20, 2008 7:39 pm

Lolhamburger wrote:Re: Baek. His ERA is actually worse at Petco than on the road. I realize that he got blown up twice in a row on the road, but before that he held the mets to 2 earned runs at Shea. He's also been blown up a few times at home. Maybe's he's not a bad road pitcher, but simply a bad pitcher?

Will consider Sonnastine and Volstad, but the former is going against Liriano and the latter is facing a good Phillies offense. You'll have to let me know if I'm not thinking clearly.



Baek is just bad, but I trust bad a bit more in Petco, no matter what the numbers say. Actually, I don't really trust Baek anywhere. Volstad and Sonnastine's matchups aren't great, but Baek and Lewis? Ugh.

re: Percival, probably be a combination of Wheeler, Percival and Balfour. The only one I'd own is Wheeler.
Grey Albright
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.

Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Sun Sep 21, 2008 7:09 am

Reporting in for Sunday, September 21, 2008. Last day of the first week of the finals. Rough week for me, as those reading here know. But at least the trend is finally starting to turn. Hopefully, that will continue. The score after the end of last night is 6-4, with me still losing, but not as badly. The category breakdowns are:

Runs: 53-46 (L)
HRs: 18-15 (L)
RBIs: 52-53 (W)
SBs: 4-3 (L)
AVG: .315-.291 (L)

Ks: 52-71 (W)
Wins: 3-4 (W)
Saves: 3-4 (W)
ERA: 2.15-4.98 (L but I'm under 5.00 finally!)
WHIP: 1.16-1.47 (L)

My thoughts:

1. Grey, I hope that you're wrong about Sonnastine and Volstad because my opponent picked them up last night! If today goes badly, I'll defer to your judgment next time. I still don't get why you're so down on Lewis, by the way. His minor league stats were fine this year and he's had two good outings since being called up.

2. B.J. Upton played last night. That was nice, but I'm keeping my expectations low. I wonder whether the Rays will intentionally not give him the green light to steal bases to minimize the risk of further injury?

3. I am waiting for 1:05 to switch out a bunch of players for Monday's roster. For the past few days, I have been consistently faster than my opponent on next day pickups. I hope he does not start adjusting and this becomes an arms race. Tomorrow's additions are pretty important because I have many empty batting spots. The same is true for my opponent. With the right adds, I might be able to gain some ground in the batting categories tomorrow. Wish me luck!

Lolhamburger
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Sun Sep 21, 2008 7:17 am

Digging a bit deeper, Baek, Lewis, Volstad and Sonnanstine all have roughly the same xFIP - ~4.50. I realize that the sample sizes are completely different and in some cases unrealiable of course.

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Sun Sep 21, 2008 8:12 am

Lolhamburger wrote:Reporting in for Sunday, September 21, 2008. Last day of the first week of the finals. Rough week for me, as those reading here know. But at least the trend is finally starting to turn. Hopefully, that will continue. The score after the end of last night is 6-4, with me still losing, but not as badly. The category breakdowns are:

Runs: 53-46 (L)
HRs: 18-15 (L)
RBIs: 52-53 (W)
SBs: 4-3 (L)
AVG: .315-.291 (L)

Ks: 52-71 (W)
Wins: 3-4 (W)
Saves: 3-4 (W)
ERA: 2.15-4.98 (L but I'm under 5.00 finally!)
WHIP: 1.16-1.47 (L)

My thoughts:

1. Grey, I hope that you're wrong about Sonnastine and Volstad because my opponent picked them up last night! If today goes badly, I'll defer to your judgment next time. I still don't get why you're so down on Lewis, by the way. His minor league stats were fine this year and he's had two good outings since being called up.

2. B.J. Upton played last night. That was nice, but I'm keeping my expectations low. I wonder whether the Rays will intentionally not give him the green light to steal bases to minimize the risk of further injury?

3. I am waiting for 1:05 to switch out a bunch of players for Monday's roster. For the past few days, I have been consistently faster than my opponent on next day pickups. I hope he does not start adjusting and this becomes an arms race. Tomorrow's additions are pretty important because I have many empty batting spots. The same is true for my opponent. With the right adds, I might be able to gain some ground in the batting categories tomorrow. Wish me luck!


I hope I'm wrong on Sonnastine and Volstad, too. I don't think they're going to be lights out though and I did tell you Sonnanstine before the Rays clinched so the Rays might bench people today1 (though their non-regulars have played well too).

Upton will not be stealing much at all, if he plays. They're in the playoffs, there's no reason to risk it.

Good luck.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.

Lolhamburger
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am

Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:28 am

Roster change mission accomplished.

Dropped: Baek, Lewis, O. Perez, Moyer, Velez and Sandoval.

Added: Shealy, G. Anderson, Teahan, Soto, Amezaga and Happ.

1. Not so excited about Happ or any other options for Monday (which include G. Smith, Millwood, Marquis, Miner, Rowland-Smith, Z. Jackson, Bass and Niese). Depending on how my 4 chump SPs do today, I might drop Happ for As. Cabrera when he comes off waivers tonight to fill in the spot for the non-active Tejada.

2. J. Upton and Gordon are two players that I could have picked up, but didn't. I passed Gordon because I have Teixeira, Mi. Cabrera, Shealy and Longoria taking up all of the CI/UT spots. I passed on J. Upton in favor of Dunn, Victorino, Teahan, N. Cruz and G. Anderson. Am considering risk that G. Anderson gets rested on Monday.

3. Taking a pass on the Dome, Trafner, Sheff and other players who have not been batting particularly well lately.

4. What to do about Maybin? G. Anderson has also been playing well lately. Either he or Teahan could be dropped to make room for Maybin. Screw it, I need steals. G. Anderson is out. Maybin is in. I changed my own mind while typing!

5. Also changed my mind about Happ. Added Callaspo. Might switch for As. Cabrera later once he clears waivers. Grabbed as many bats as I could for Monday. Will look to make up pitching during the balance of the week. Seems like a better bet at this point, given the score.

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Grey
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Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Grey » Sun Sep 21, 2008 3:46 pm

1. Not so excited about Happ or any other options for Monday (which include G. Smith, Millwood, Marquis, Miner, Rowland-Smith, Z. Jackson, Bass and Niese). Depending on how my 4 chump SPs do today, I might drop Happ for As. Cabrera when he comes off waivers tonight to fill in the spot for the non-active Tejada.
Happ? Ugh.

2. J. Upton and Gordon are two players that I could have picked up, but didn't. I passed Gordon because I have Teixeira, Mi. Cabrera, Shealy and Longoria taking up all of the CI/UT spots. I passed on J. Upton in favor of Dunn, Victorino, Teahan, N. Cruz and G. Anderson. Am considering risk that G. Anderson gets rested on Monday.
Anderson? Eh.

3. Taking a pass on the Dome, Trafner, Sheff and other players who have not been batting particularly well lately.
Makes sense.

4. What to do about Maybin? G. Anderson has also been playing well lately. Either he or Teahan could be dropped to make room for Maybin. Screw it, I need steals. G. Anderson is out. Maybin is in. I changed my own mind while typing!
Ha, nice. I didn't like Anderson when I initially read it above.

5. Also changed my mind about Happ. Added Callaspo. Might switch for As. Cabrera later once he clears waivers. Grabbed as many bats as I could for Monday. Will look to make up pitching during the balance of the week. Seems like a better bet at this point, given the score.
re: Happ -- Good. I didn't like him when I read it above either.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.

Lolhamburger
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am

Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:17 pm

Update for Sunday night, September 21 (though it is technically already September 22 on the east coast). The score stands at 6-4, with me losing. I'm not sure what to say. On the one hand, I've found furiously to get back into contention after a disastrous beginning. On the other hand, if the finals matchup were one week only, I would be the loser tonight. Good thing for me that there's another week to go. Let's see how much more turn-around is in store for me.

Here is the breakdown of the current score:

R: 59-53 (losing by 6)
HRs: 18-16 (losing by 2)
RBIs: 55-60 (winning by 5)
SBs: 5-3 (losing by 2)
AVG: .302-.293 (losing by .009)

Ks: 68-102 (winning by 34)
Wins: 4-7 (winning by 3)
Saves: 3-5 (winning by 2)
ERA: 2.71-4.33 (losing but now under 4.50)
WHIP: 1.22-1.37 (also losing badly but not by as much anymore)

1. For Monday, my opponent picked up Cust, Hairston, Garko, G. Anderson and G. Smith (at Texas vs Millwood) and dropped Lyon (about time), A. Casilla, Arroyo, Sonnanstine and Volstad. I like my pickups better and am glad that I beat him to the punch today. As the score starts to tighten, I can see an arms race developing for who adds players the fastest for the following day. This is a full streaming war right now.

2. First game tomorrow is at 1:10 between Florida and Cincinnati. This is unfortunate because I won't be able to find out in advance whether the Cubs will be playing Soto. Soto was given today off, and I think that his usefulness will be marginal from now until the end of the regular season. The Cubs have no reason not to give his legs a break before the playoffs when he'll surely be used heavily. My other options for tomorrow (and possibly the rest of the week) include Schneider, J. Baker, Johjima, Ryan, Napoli, Buck, Ruiz, Laird and Teagarden. Schneider and J. Baker have played very well in the past 7 days and seem to be getting the most playing time of this bunch. Napoli has also played well but has not gotten regular playing time. Teagarden has gotten almost no playing time in the past 7 days. I see that Napoli played today. Will the Angels be giving Mathis more a break this coming week? In any event, it seems pretty important to grab Sandoval for Tuesday and going forward. Worth noting that Sandoval has a strained quad though. But that hasn't kept him from playing like someone else I know!

3. My opponent owns Ziegler so I was pretty happy to see Devine get the save today. Devine is still available. Consider dropping Motte for him. Also considering dropping Percival for him. Hard to say. Anything can happen in the last week. Wish my margin for winning saves were not slight. This and the fact that I'm losing SBs are the two biggest surprises for me out of the first week of finals.

4. According to covers.com, Jamie Moyer is now 10-1 in his last 11 starts against Florida. One thing that I've often wondered is why fantasy baseball players don't look at Las Vegas odds more often? Or if they do, why isn't it talked about more? I suppose the fundamental question is whether any insights can be gained about the possible outcomes of a game based on how people with money at stake view the lines. An interesting study might be the outcome for streaming pitchers based on Las Vegas odds. Unfortunately, it will take someone with more time than me to look into this.

Lolhamburger
Posts: 91
Joined: Sat Jun 28, 2008 11:53 am

Re: Lolhamburger H2H Playoff Thread

Postby Lolhamburger » Sun Sep 21, 2008 10:23 pm

PS I hope Saito's loss tonight means that the Dodgers think twice about replacing Broxton at the closer role. It's noteworthy that Broxton was used before Saito tonight.


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