PURPOSE: To provide even more stats to confuse you as you prepare for your 2010 draft. I do this stuff because it's fun, and I am hoping to find a nugget or two by crunching all these numbers. I like to evaluate players at the top of their games in order to get a peak at their upside. This post attempts to rank players according to the impact that their peak performances for 2009 would have had in a standard 5X5 roto league. The criteria for this post was: any pitcher who had ten consecutive GS in 2009 got ranked. Ten games is roughly one-third of a season; seems about right. (If you missed it, hitters' top-50 games were ranked in forums:
If I left a player out that you are interested in, just let me know via the post and I will rank him.)
I perused the game logs of all 170 qualifying pitchers and did my best to bracket their ten most productive consecutive games, consecutive so as not to just target games against softies. I averaged, for the ten games, each of the standard roto cats: ERA, SO, WHIP. Wins were ignored in the selection and rankings due to their elusive nature. Entered each player's line to a spreadsheet.
(The math/formula stuff is just here to comfort you that I worked hard to get as close as possible to how the performances would actually impact a roto team. It’s OK to skip this stuff and just peruse the list to see where your guy(s) stand.)
Calculated the percentage of a player's stats relative to the average for the category. For example, Greinke had 81 SO. This was 74% higher than the average of 47 SO. Saunders, on the other hand, had 33 SO, -29%.
Averaged the three percentages (ERA, SO, WHIP) to get a preliminary overall ranking. Finally, calculated each player's IP divided by the average IP to get a multiplier for his real impact on the scoring. In roto, the team ranking for each category is a sum total of the stats. I.E. Player A gives up 45 hits in 200 IP; ERA = 2.03 (45/200X9). Player B gives up 20 hits 50 IP; ERA=3.60. The team ERA =2.34(((45+20)/(200+50))X9). It is not an average of the two, 2.81 ((2.03+3.60)/2). Calculating the percent of a player's IP relative to the average IP is an attempt to reflect that a pitcher who pitches seven innings is adding more to the team score than one who is pitching five innings.
This is well illustrated by Kershaw who ranks #6 on straight rankings, but since he seldom pitches much more than five innings, he dropped to #15 based on his IP for the 10 games (still a worthy ranking). In a recent mock http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantas ... y/12404777 he was the 17th drafted SP, in round nine. (Somebody did their homework!) BTW: When Wins are included with ERA, SO, and WHIP, Kershaw drops to #22. So, his core stats are great; it just comes down to how much you might feel is necessary to discount for high pitch counts and low innings pitched with, perhaps, a negative impact on Ws?
LOWE (the mid-ranking player):
ERA rank=1.02 (avg3.53/3.47lowe)
All in all, I think it's a close enough replication of roto scoring for the purposes of this discussion. Included W-HR-BB as added info if you use those for keys.
WHAT DO WE FIND?:
1. Greinke at the top.
That 300% indicates that Greinke's impact on roto standing proved to be 3 times that of the average pitcher (it was particularly skewed by that 0.84 ERA; there was a large gap to #2). Shoot, if Greinke could be counted upon to replicate those numbers for a full season, he might be worth the #1 pick overall. Might fall a little short. Still, if your gonna fall, better from that height? I debated whether to provide the number at all, but chose to do so to demonstrate two things:
1.If you see a someone drafting Greinke or Lincecum in the first round, and ask yourself, “How could they do that?”, it is probably because they have done their own analysis which demonstrated similar results.
2.It shows that the picks you make at the top of your draft have much more impact than mid-draft.
1-Greinke,300%;2-Lincecum,241%;3-Hernandez,F,225%;4-Lee,C,217%. The drops get more gradual. At mid-range you get: 83-Niemann,102%;84-Harang,99%;85-Lowe,99%;86-Bush,98%.
What that tells me is that if I am unable to get my targeted higher-end pitchers, I don't need to stretch to draft a marginal player before his time. If I get stuck with a somewhat less marginal player, I will still be better off by filling the higher draft position with a more critical, and more dependable, difference-making hitter.
Keep in mind. It is not intended that these be used as projections for a full season; they are what they are--a measure of the real performance that pitchers achieved at some point during 2009, and a RELATIVE measure to compare to other pitchers.
1.If you see someone drafting J.Santana #1, it might be because Santana had the most SO, 86.
2.Owings gave up 31 BB and garnered a 1.75 WHIP. Kershaw had 30 BB with a 1.16 WHIP. J.Sanchez had 27 BB with a 1.01 WHIP. How do they do it? Because Kershaw and Sanchez were UN-HITTABLE. Sanchez gave up the fewest hits, 36, in 62.2 IP. Oh, yea, wasn't there something about a no-hitter? Kershaw had the fourth fewest with 39 hits in 59.1 IP (and 30 BB, ranked 9th).
3.Most likely to come closest to a full season replicating? Vazquez? top ten ERA 2.44; full season 2.87.
4.At #70, even Hamels' best wasn't that good.
Will let you have fun with the rest!
12 Santana,J 1.77-86/1.09/7-5-20-179%
89 Miller,A -3.92/52/1.32-3-5-23-96%
92 McCarthy-3.65/38/1.23-4-6-21- 94%
93 Sanchez,A -2.70/46/1.35-3-4-31-94%
117 Gonzalez,G -4.53/56/1.58-4-6-32-81%
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