The following an excerpt from last season's end of season review I had written for myself. Just found the fortunes of the players from last year to this year interesting:
Week 7, 2 trades: Cliff Lee and Edinson Volquez for Justin Verlander and Jered Weaver
Justin Verlander (1-6, 6.43 ERA, 1.47 WHIP in 8 starts)
Jered Weaver (2-5, 5.59 ERA, 1.48 WHIP in 8 starts)
Cliff Lee (6-0, 0.67 ERA, 0.67 WHIP in 7 starts)
Edinson Volquez (5-1, 1.06 ERA, 1.23 WHIP in 5 starts)
Lee/Volquez a combined 11-1; Verlander/Weaver a combined 3-11. Pretty easy to see the value in these trades.
The Edge: Verlander/Weaver had been higher-priced. By replacing with lower-cost pitchers, it allowed Lucky to rotate in higher-cost hitters.
The Edge: The timing of the pickups is noteworthy. Both Lee and Volquez were added on two-start weeks. We like the idea of looking at the number of starts the prospect is scheduled for. If he is scheduled for just one start, the edge that he will give us is marginal. Who knows, he could have a setback, or someone else with even better prospects might emerge. If nothing changes we will make the trade the next week, on two starts.
How did the trades pan out for Lucky?
Verlander: 8-11 in 25 starts.
Weaver: 9-5 in 22 starts.
Lee: 16-3 in 25 starts. 10-3 in 19 starts while active; 6 wins in 6 starts benched!
Volquez: 12-5 in 25 starts. 10-3 in 23 starts while active; 2 wins in 2 starts benched!
Lee/Volquez a combined 28-8; Verlander/Weaver, 17-16.
Had we made those trades we would have been ecstatic. Still, they had a measure of angst. In Lee's next 11 starts, he had five wins. Lucky activated him for eight starts and got only two wins. Two wins in 11 total starts. Do you think Lucky was feeling lucky that he had made a Perfect Trade? Over this same stretch Roy Halladay had delivered seven wins in eleven starts. Nolasco was tempting with seven wins in ten starts, and cheap. Did Lucky panic and drop Lee? No, he stuck with him, and it was a good thing he did. Lee delivered 11 wins in 14 starts down the stretch.
The Edge: Patience.