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 Post subject: Re: Segura
PostPosted: Wed May 15, 2013 10:49 am 
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Joined: Tue Jul 13, 2010 5:57 pm
Posts: 508
MStark wrote:
That's a tough one.

If you expect Segura to "regress to what he is" then that'd involve a pretty disappointing rest of the year because he'd have to slump to bring his numbers in line.

Or he could "revert to what he is" and simply produce at his projected rate for the rest of the season.


The second one is typically the way these things work. The first scenario is only likely with extremely accurate projections and a larger sample size than one MLB season.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Regression_toward_the_mean

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