Pitching First - Zig when Zag?

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thefounteeners
Posts: 48
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:49 am

Pitching First - Zig when Zag?

Postby thefounteeners » Sun Mar 17, 2013 10:07 am

I play in a 12 team league (standard roto scoring except that IP replaces K) which employs a straight draft, this year I have the 11th pick each round. With a difficult draft pick like this I am looking for any edge I can get. Our league generally drafts consistent with ADP with pitching coming off the board a touch late. I am toying with the idea of using a pitching first strategy. 98 points (out of 120) is typically enough to win our league. If I were able to secure 55 pitching points, second in each category, I would need 43 offensive points. I put together a sample team based on ADP with no reaches - would love feedback on it, round selected in parenthesis:

C - Perez, S (11)
C - Avila, A (18)
1B: Freeman, F (5)
2B: Gyorko, J (16)
SS: Rutledge, J (17)
3B: Sandoval (10)
OF: Holliday (4)
OF: Jennings (7)
OF: Jackson (8)
OF: Cuddyer (14)
OF: Eaton (19)
CO: Frazier (15)
MI: Murphy (22)
UT: Machado (21)
UT: Martin, L (25)

P: Verlander (1)
P: Strasburg (2)
P: Kimbrel (3)
P: Bumgarner (6)
P: Greinke (9)
P: Betancourt (12)
P: Fister (13)
P: Marmol (20)
P: Milone (23)
P: Ryu (24)
C: Rosario
C: Martin
1b: Goldschmidt
2b: Infante
SS: Segura
3b: Ramirez, Ar
MI: Simmons
CO: Freeman
OF: McCutchen, Adam Jones, Aoki, Cuddyer, Hunter Pence
UT: Arenado, David Murphy
Bench: Ramos, Rendon, Duda, Rutledge, Johnson, C

SP: Wainwright, Scherzer, Samardzija, Niese, Burnett, Maholm, Gee, Doubront, Gerrit Cole, Cingrani, Volquez, Wacha, Gausman
RP: Wilhelmsen / Holland

12 Team roto league standard categories with IP replacing K's. FA acquisitions limited to 10 pickups (3 remaining) all season.

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Mauddib
Posts: 2176
Joined: Thu Dec 27, 2012 9:10 am

Re: Pitching First - Zig when Zag?

Postby Mauddib » Sun Mar 17, 2013 10:51 am

It looks good on paper but pitchers are so volatile that you just don't know what you are going to get. Like Greinke is having elbow issues which is worrisome. So not sure how it will work out but I am usually OK with doing something different. Just be prepared for the unexpected.

thefounteeners
Posts: 48
Joined: Fri Mar 01, 2013 11:49 am

Re: Pitching First - Zig when Zag?

Postby thefounteeners » Sun Mar 17, 2013 11:55 am

I agree about the pitching volatility - that said my draft spot will likely lead to some reaching early in the draft regardless.

Due to keepers, players available for my first pick would likely be: Stanton, Upton, CarGo or a top pitcher. I rate them in that order but can see an argument for a pitcher before either Upton or CarGo - both have plenty of upside but an equal amount of volatility and risk. Either could just as easily end the season as a bust as Verlander or Kershaw.

Second round available players would likely be: Goldschmidt (if he slips), Adam Jones or Josh Hamilton. If I take an OF in the first round I would be unlikely to take another in the second which means my options are again limited.

Third round targets would include players like Wright, Adrian Gonzalez (who would both need to slip) and Butler. Again can justify a pitcher here.

As with any draft it is dependent on what the board gives you. I am still tweaking my thinking on a strategy along these lines but toying with it...All that to say I think this is a year where their may be a flip side of the "no pitcher's early" coin.
C: Rosario
C: Martin
1b: Goldschmidt
2b: Infante
SS: Segura
3b: Ramirez, Ar
MI: Simmons
CO: Freeman
OF: McCutchen, Adam Jones, Aoki, Cuddyer, Hunter Pence
UT: Arenado, David Murphy
Bench: Ramos, Rendon, Duda, Rutledge, Johnson, C

SP: Wainwright, Scherzer, Samardzija, Niese, Burnett, Maholm, Gee, Doubront, Gerrit Cole, Cingrani, Volquez, Wacha, Gausman
RP: Wilhelmsen / Holland

12 Team roto league standard categories with IP replacing K's. FA acquisitions limited to 10 pickups (3 remaining) all season.


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