It is currently Wed Nov 26, 2014 5:52 am

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]

Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 36 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next
  Print view Previous topic | Next topic 
Author Message
 Post subject: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 11:41 am 
Offline
Sponsor
Sponsor
User avatar

Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:15 am
Posts: 402
Basically, it is just a matter of freeing up SP and bench slots to be used productively daily, instead of being ‘locked’ by SP who are just sitting on their fannies four out of five days. This adds up to nearly FOUR FULL-TIME extra players’ stats added to a normal active roster of 13 hitters and 9 pitchers.
(If the tables not clear enough, just skip and read to the end.)
Hitters: These are the schedules for the players that I intend to draft for the first week (should be typical of any set).
M_T_W_T_F_S_Su
0_X_X_X_X_X_X
0_X_X_X_X_X_X
X_0_X_X_X_X_X
X_0_X_X_X_X_X
X_0_X_X_X_X_X
X_0_X_X_X_X_X
X_0_X_X_X_X_X
X_0_X_X_X_X_X
X_X_X_X_X_X_X
X_X_X_X_X_X_X
X_X_X_0_X_X_X
X_X_X_0_X_X_X
X_X_X_0_X_X_X
Let’s ‘pretend’ that one uses his three bench slots to house three of his six SP. I count ELEVEN slots that get no production because players do not have games every day. Set the pitching aside for a moment. If we use the bench for hitters, we can fill in three hitters with TWO on Monday and THREE each on Tuesday and Thursday. That’s EIGHT slots—an extra 1.25 hitters (8 slots divided by the standard 6 games per week) for the week--even though we only used the bench 3 days. This can occur EVERY WEEK of the SEASON. We have NOT compromised our everyday players. They go to the three bench slots (when SP aren’t in the slots).
Pitchers (a pitching-strong draft of 7 SP, 3 CL, and 2 MR-CL-wannabe’s), 9 active slots, 3 bench).
__S_M_T_W_T_F_S_Su
SP: 0_X_0_0_0_0_X_0
SP: 0_X_0_0_0_0_X_0
SP: 0_0_X_0_0_0_0_X
SP: 0_0_X_0_0_0_0_X
CL: 0_X_X_X_X_X_X_X
CL: 0_X_X_X_X_X_X_X
CL: 0_X_X_X_X_X_X_X
MR: 0_X_X_X_X_X_X_X
MR: 0_X_X_X_X_X_X_X
BN-SP: 0_0_0_X_0_0_0_0
BN-SP: 0_0_0_X_0_0_0_0
BN-SP: 0_0_0_0_X_0_0_0
I count TWENTY ‘locked’ slots, M-Su, committed to SP in active slots. These are slots that get ABSOLUTELY ZERO production.
Let’s ‘pretend’ that we have ZERO SP. I think I can nab 6-7 CL (with solid periphs; number of SV don’t matter since we have so many CL), let’s say 6. Fill TWO of active slots with MR (with solid periphs). The ninth active slot is filled with rotating in SP. Further, that our bench has been committed to hitters for W, F, Sa, and Su. That leaves us with:
__M_T_W_T_F_S_Su
CL: X_X_X_X_X_X_X
CL: X_0_X_X_X_X_X
CL: X_0_X_X_X_X_X
CL: X_X_X_X_X_X_X
CL: X_0_X_X_X_X_X
CL: X_0_X_X_X_X_X
MR: X_0_X_X_X_X_X
MR: X_0_X_X_X_X_X
Of the TWENTY previously ‘locked’ slots, 15 are filled by every day available CL and MR as well as the bench filling in their days off. Five remain ‘locked’ due to previous commitments to hitters and having the same day off.
FIFTEEN slots = 2.5 FULL-TIME additional pitchers, CL/MR.
BONUS: For Fr/Sa/Su, when our bench is not servicing hitters (since our regulars have full schedules), we get to stockpile prospective SP streamers (we can’t expect to pick up ideal streamers each day).
RETROSPECTIVE: The Fredsies bested the #1 ranked pitching Razzball Rudy Gamble in total ERA+WHIP. With vulture W, The Fredsies bested him in W. With Ks amassed from streaming, bested him there as well, even though K/9 for pitcher may have been weaker. These results are not from SPECULATION—they are REAL.
The ‘hole’ last year was that I paid little attention to periphs while streaming MR. That won’t happen again.
NOTE: The very TOP teams have a solid record of finishing with a very high percentage of the players that they drafted. Picking up fill-in hitting from FA and benching drafted hitters, protects them. (Note: some managers stream positions, i.e. UT/OF, rather than protecting lower drafted hitters to the bench.)
SUMMARY: Via streaming, one gains 1.25 hitters and 2.5 pitchers. This easily makes up for the extra Ks for which high-drafted SP have been coveted. Oh yeah, and those slots where you previously drafted SP…go to higher quality hitters and more closers. Again, the ‘victory’ comes less from the quality of SP, more from just filling in the blanks of the system. BUT WHAT IF—everybody steams? Don’t the streamers dry up? Hmmm, let’s see, the more people that stream leaves more SP in the pool. If EVERY MANAGER streamed, I could stream Verlander…and Strasburg…and…that’s the ticket! Come on in. The water’s fine!
BOTTOM LINE: It really comes down to where you get your fun. If a lot of daily commitment ain’t your thang, don’t tackle this. If ‘numbers’ is your game, this is a no-brainer. If you are in it to win it—
YOU BE THE JUDGE!
BTW: last year I ran my last streamer on Aug 25 (180 GS limit in RCL). One should easily be able to stream 220+ SP through the end of Sep.
There are 178 baseball days in the 2013 season (you can be streaming/working the bench when your regulars are sitting once a week).
If Tony La Russa could have garnered extra runs and strikeouts and wins and saves on his team’s off days, do you think he would have done it? Shoot, maybe that’s how he did so well…
Testimonial: Oaktown Steve: “I finished 6th overall the one year I played and won my league. There is no doubt in my mind that streaming pitchers is the optimal play...”


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:06 pm 
Offline

Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am
Posts: 317
well the cats out of the bag now. I agree with you in large part, though I do have a couple things in the actual application of the strategy that I did differently.

I think the risk isn't that everybody streams, but if there are 3 or 4 of you there will be competition for some of the more attractive options. I am interested to see if anybody would bother blocking streamers early in the season. For sure they will if it's a competetive race in late August/September, but if you stream early and often I can't imagine most folks with bother. I am not a huge believer in the stream-o-nator (sorry Rudy!) so maybe that'll keep me off the grid in RCL. At any rate, I don't think the key to the strategy is picking the right streamers necessarily as much as it is just executing correctly.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:38 pm 
Offline

Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:33 pm
Posts: 16
I have a question about streaming and I apologize if it has been answered elsewhere. My league is a 10 team 5x5 roto keeper league that is changing from Wins to Quality Starts as a category. Would this have an impact on the effectiveness of streaming?

I am keeping Verlander and Strasburg in this league so I am attempting to figure out my draft strategy with regards to pitching. Obviously I will be waiting on SPs but perhaps I need to focus more on Closers and MR? I appreciate any help with this strategy.

I used the stream-o-nator last year with great success at the end of the season and made up a ton of ground in Wins and won my league because of it. Curious as to how effective the stream-o-nator will be for QS.

_________________
10 team 5x5 roto keeper league, OBP replaces AVG and QS replaces W. ESPN standard rules and rosters.
Keepers can be kept for 1 round ahead of draft round; the round moves up each year. Players listed with 2013 keeper value.

C - Wieters (18)
1B - Hosmer (22)
3B - Lawrie (21)
OF - Trout (24)

SP - Verlander (3), Strasburg (23)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 2:05 pm 
Offline
Sponsor
Sponsor
User avatar

Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:15 am
Posts: 402
Can't answer the OPS question myself (maybe Rudy will weigh in).

The deal is in a daily league, SP tie up slots when they are not pitching. CL are 'available' every day. So, theoretically they are producing every day. If you are locking bench slots with SP, you are losing productive fill-in options.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 2:12 pm 
Offline
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jun 04, 2008 4:33 am
Posts: 260
KnightRyder wrote:
I have a question about streaming and I apologize if it has been answered elsewhere. My league is a 10 team 5x5 roto keeper league that is changing from Wins to Quality Starts as a category. Would this have an impact on the effectiveness of streaming?


I don't think the strategy changes much with Wins vs. QS. It probably makes good pitchers on shitty teams more attractive in general as you no longer get penalized for low Wins. (But, even there, I find that even on the same team, Wins can be fluky. Look at Sale vs. Peavy vs. Quintana last year for an example.

For 2013 Stream-o-nator, my goal is to provide an IP/ERA/WHIP/K estimate and then a W %. I'll look into adding a QS % as well.

_________________
Rudy Gamble
http://www.razzball.com
Image


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Tue Jan 29, 2013 3:46 pm 
Offline

Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am
Posts: 317
Rudy did you get any metrics on how the SoN performed last year? I continue my respectful but healthy skepticism.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:07 am 
Offline

Joined: Tue Jan 29, 2013 1:33 pm
Posts: 16
I might try this strategy out in my league draft this year. If you could confirm I am understanding it correctly. As I stated earlier, my league is 10 team 5x5 roto with keepers. It uses the ESPN standard roster with 200 GS limit and Quality Starts instead of Wins.

My plan is to keep Verlander and Strasburg in the 3rd and 23rd rounds respectively. So when I draft my team I will have 7 empty Pitcher slots to fill. Your strategy would have me be done with Starting Pitchers before the draft even starts correct? So I would want to draft approximately 5 Closers and 2 Middle Relievers? Something close to that?

So throughout the season are you picking up SP in addition to other MR? You are using the 3 bench spots for hitters only? I am obviously never dropping Verlander and Strasburg so I would have 2 Pitcher spots that are not scoring for me 4 out of 5 days. It seems like it might be hard for me to hit the 200 GS cap unless I am streaming more starters throughout the season.

Sorry this is a little stream of consciousness as I am working through understanding this strategy.

_________________
10 team 5x5 roto keeper league, OBP replaces AVG and QS replaces W. ESPN standard rules and rosters.
Keepers can be kept for 1 round ahead of draft round; the round moves up each year. Players listed with 2013 keeper value.

C - Wieters (18)
1B - Hosmer (22)
3B - Lawrie (21)
OF - Trout (24)

SP - Verlander (3), Strasburg (23)


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:07 am 
Offline

Joined: Mon Apr 23, 2012 9:54 am
Posts: 699
SoN <3

_________________
12 Team / Yahoo! / Roto / Redraft / 1 DL Slot
Hitting: R / H / 2B / 3B / HR / RBI / SB / BB / AVG
Pitching: GS / W / L / SV / K / ERA / WHIP / RAPP / QS


C - Wilin Rosario
1B - Steve Pearce
2B - Alexi Amarista
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Mookie Betts
OF1 - Carlos Gomez
OF2 - Alex Gordon
OF3 - Jorge Soler
UTIL - Avisail Garcia
UTIL - Nori Aoki
BN - Adam Lind


SP - Kershaw / Kluber / Wood / Cashner / Fiers / Streamers
RP - Melancon / Petricka / Casilla / Feliz / Quack
DL - Sanchez


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 11:28 am 
Offline
Sponsor
Sponsor
User avatar

Joined: Fri Mar 06, 2009 9:15 am
Posts: 402
Will tackle this as 'your checklist' kinda deal:
#1: 200 GS limit: I essentially streamed all starters last year and met my 180 GS limit late August, so 200 GS should not be a problem (especially since you have 2 fixed SP).
#2: empty pitcher slots: start by thinking of your 2 locked SP in bench positions. You don't want them in active P positions, since the days they would be sitting, you would be getting zero production. So, INITIALLY, you are looking to fill all 9 P slots in the draft. Of course, from the get go, since you have locked 2 bench slots, you lose the flexibility to stream hitters or pitchers via the bench. Bottom line: understand that by keeping SP, you are sacrificing counting stats all days that they sit.
#2a: Fill the 9 P slots with as many closers as you can get WHO HAVE STERLING PERIPHS, i.e. ERA and WHIP; then fill with MR with sterling periphs. Targeting specific MRs in the draft isn't highly critical. They are usually available via FA to add when you drop the streaming SP of the previous day. Since you will be targeting, and be able to get, 5 or more closers, no need to go after the Marmols. As long as you are able to keep P slots filled on a daily basis with available pitchers (of any type) you will amass Ks. Only consider Ks if deciding between two otherwise equal pitchers. If you don't keep your P slots filled with active pitchers daily, Ks will not stack up as you need.
#3: not specifically on your list, but know that you can target more hitters early on to strengthen hitting.
#4: streaming SP: SON (the Stream-O-Nator) is an excellent tool for selecting streamers. Rudy plans to target all 5 pitching cats this season. That will be interesting. I recommend focusing on WHIP and ERA. Basically, you find available the 'mediocre' SP (they are considered mediocre because they don't have high K rates) who do have excellent periphs. Then you want them at pitchers parks. Don't worry about the Ws. The jury is out on whether or not heads-up against the opposing team is quantifiable. I would still take a peek.
BOTTOM-BOTTOM line: Streaming SP is all about AVOIDING BLOW OUTS. As long as you do that you will get enough counting stats. Keeping P slots active will stack up Ks, vulture Ws, and vulture SVs.
Hope this helps.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 3:20 pm 
Offline

Joined: Mon Mar 28, 2011 9:55 am
Posts: 317
Fred, could you clarify one piece of data from yesterday's blog post?

In the section called streaming you cite the Fredsies as having a 3.14 ERA for SPs. Is this a combination of your streamers plus Strasburg and Worley? And why so few innings from Strasburg? Did you trade him?


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 36 posts ]  Go to page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next

All times are UTC - 8 hours [ DST ]


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Search for:
Jump to:  
cron