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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:29 pm 
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Yes, this included all of my SP. Didn't give it a second thought since Stras and Worley had only 51 IP between them.

Traded Stras on May 4--was worried that I wouldn't get anything much further down the road given his pending IP limit.

It was my first year considering streaming. I won't draft a single SP this year.

BTW: I intend to treat MR similar to SP this year. Look for those that are available on a given day with solid periphs AND at pitchers' parks (neglected that last year). For example, won't run 'em against #1 run-scoring TEX against righties.


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 4:44 pm 
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Fred, my numbers say you're going to suffer some serious regression to your streaming success from last year. The league ERA for the top 80 qualified starters last year was something like 3.78. My best guess for an average streamer is 4.64. You should be able to beat that but you basically blew expected number completely out. I'll go on record as saying I don't think you can do it again. But you never know. I'll certainly be following your progress.

I do believe in streaming, but like I said, I've got a slightly different approach. The one thing we do agree on is that the efficient use of roster spots and maximizing the number of pitcher appearances is the real advantage.

I would think streaming MRs would be not really a true stream. Maybe you pick up a guy for a series or a good homestand? Unlike starters and position players you can't predict when they are going to get into a game. I've had pretty good luck with buy and hold on MRs and don't really think I see a huge advantage in streaming them.


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:39 pm 
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Let's just agree the jury is out on what stats streamed SP will return. I don't think I did anything special. Believe I have learned and fully expect to replicate last year's (unless more managers dry up the pool; but, again, the more that get in, the more SP are available).

The reason to stream MR is very limited. It comes about when you stream SP. Say you stream 2 or 3 in one day. You have a choice to bench those 'solid' MRs on your roster, in which case the bench isn't available to run in hitters, or, you can drop the MRs for the day, then grab them back, or others if they have been snatched, the next day from FA/WW.

BTW: I am always at the bottom of the waiver wire list. Few other managers will use their WW on an MR, but if you want that solid guy back, that is a way to do it.

Yes, there are no guarantees when relievers will/will not get in. Nevertheless, if they are on your bench, it is a guarantee they won't be in that day. Occasionally, if an MR has seen action several days in a row, I will pick up an FA who is fresh. A good situation is if you can find a solid long reliever, who gets 3 or 4 innings, every four or five days. You can predict when he is ready to go and get a bunch of stats for the multiple innings in recurring strikes. Also, good ops for vulture W.

You can see that I take the 'edge' to the EDGE!


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 5:46 pm 
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These my SP. Not sure how many were top 80 qualified.

   IP     K     W    SV   ERA  WHIP PLAYER, TEAM POS
SP 56.3 35 6 0 1.92 0.89 Kyle Lohse, FA SP
SP 50.0 44 6 0 2.70 1.18 Lance Lynn, StL RP, SP
SP 37.7 15 4 0 2.63 1.06 Clayton Richard, SD SP
SP 35.7 27 5 0 1.51 0.84 Chad Billingsley, LAD SP  DTD
SP 35.0 39 3 0 1.54 0.89 James McDonald, Pit SP
SP 32.7 29 2 0 1.93 1.16 Lucas Harrell, Hou RP, SP
SP 32.0 34 2 0 1.13 0.88 Stephen Strasburg, Wsh SP
SP 31.0 14 1 0 4.06 1.35 Scott Diamond, Min SP
SP 30.7 12 3 0 4.70 1.47 Jake Westbrook, StL SP
SP 26.7 22 2 0 2.70 1.31 Trevor Cahill, Ari SP
SP 24.0 15 2 0 1.88 1.00 Mike Leake, Cin SP
SP 23.0 13 0 0 4.70 1.61 Nate Eovaldi, Mia SP
SP 22.7 17 1 0 5.16 1.63 Ricky Nolasco, Mia SP
SP 22.3 27 1 0 2.01 0.90 Franklin Morales, Bos RP, SP  DTD
SP 20.7 18 3 0 2.18 1.06 Jonathon Niese, NYM SP
SP 20.0 22 1 0 3.60 1.15 Anthony Bass, SD RP, SP
SP 19.7 29 0 0 3.66 0.86 Francisco Liriano, FA SP, RP
SP 19.3 20 2 0 4.66 1.09 Clay Buchholz, Bos SP
SP 19.0 21 1 0 2.37 1.32 Vance Worley, Phi SP  DTD
SP 19.0 16 0 0 1.89 1.16 Doug Fister, Det SP
SP 19.0 18 0 0 4.74 1.32 Jaime Garcia, StL SP  DTD
SP 17.3 8 0 0 5.19 1.33 Travis Blackley, Oak SP, RP
SP 17.3 11 2 0 2.60 1.33 Eric Stults, SD RP, SP
SP 17.3 17 3 0 1.56 1.21 A.J. Burnett, Pit SP
SP 16.0 18 2 0 0.00 0.63 Justin Masterson, Cle SP
SP 16.0 9 0 0 4.50 1.44 Ross Detwiler, Wsh SP, RP
SP 15.7 8 1 0 4.02 1.85 Rick Porcello, Det SP
SP 15.3 14 1 0 3.52 1.30 Zach McAllister, Cle SP
SP 14.7 8 2 0 3.68 0.89 Blake Beavan, Sea SP
SP 14.0 15 1 0 2.57 1.14 Paul Maholm, Atl SP
SP 14.0 11 1 0 3.86 1.29 Tim Hudson, Atl SP
SP 14.0 13 1 0 0.64 0.79 Ryan Vogelsong, SF SP
SP 13.7 7 2 0 1.32 0.88 Travis Wood, ChC SP
SP 13.3 11 1 0 2.03 1.28 Joe Saunders, FA SP
SP 12.3 9 1 0 0.00 0.65 Kevin Millwood, FA SP
SP 12.0 10 1 0 3.00 1.33 Jeff Karstens, Pit SP
SP 12.0 8 1 0 3.00 1.17 A.J. Griffin, Oak SP
SP 12.0 8 1 0 3.75 1.33 R.A. Dickey, NYM SP  DTD
SP 11.3 10 0 0 4.76 1.32 Dillon Gee, NYM SP  DTD
SP 11.0 14 0 0 6.55 1.82 Mike Fiers, Mil RP, SP
SP 10.7 9 1 0 8.44 1.97 Wei-Yin Chen, Bal SP
SP 10.7 12 1 0 5.91 1.69 Patrick Corbin, Ari SP, RP
SP 10.0 6 1 0 4.50 1.70 Tommy Milone, Oak SP
SP 9.7 10 0 0 5.59 1.97 Aaron Harang, LAD SP
SP 9.0 8 1 0 1.00 1.22 Chris Tillman, Bal SP
SP 8.0 4 1 0 1.13 1.13 Matt Harrison, Tex SP  DTD
SP 8.0 5 1 0 0.00 0.25 Jeff Samardzija, ChC RP, SP
SP 7.0 6 0 0 2.57 1.29 Jason Marquis, FA SP
SP 7.0 9 1 0 6.43 1.14 Nate Jones, CWS SP, RP
SP 7.0 5 0 0 2.57 0.57 Edwin Jackson, FA SP
SP 7.0 2 0 0 2.57 1.14 Tommy Hunter, Bal SP, RP
SP 7.0 3 0 0 6.43 1.43 Kevin Correia, FA SP
SP 7.0 6 0 0 2.57 1.00 Gavin Floyd, CWS SP
SP 6.7 6 0 0 4.05 1.35 Joe Blanton, FA SP
SP 6.7 4 1 0 2.70 1.05 Joe Kelly, StL SP, RP
SP 6.7 5 0 0 4.05 1.65 Garrett Richards, LAA SP, RP
SP 6.7 3 0 0 2.70 1.50 Mark Buehrle, Tor SP
SP 6.3 6 1 0 0.00 0.47 Wade Miley, Ari SP
SP 6.3 4 0 0 5.68 1.58 James Russell, ChC RP, SP
SP 6.0 4 1 0 0.00 0.83 Hisashi Iwakuma, Sea SP, RP
SP 6.0 4 0 0 6.00 1.83 Jason Hammel, Bal SP
SP 6.0 1 1 0 1.50 1.50 Henderson Alvarez, Mia SP
SP 6.0 6 1 0 4.50 1.50 Erik Bedard, Pit SP
SP 6.0 2 0 0 1.50 1.33 Brett Cecil, Tor SP, RP
SP 6.0 10 0 0 7.50 1.83 Wade Davis, TB SP, RP
SP 6.0 8 1 0 3.00 1.83 Hiroki Kuroda, NYY SP
SP 5.7 4 1 0 3.18 1.94 Chris Young, FA SP
SP 5.3 4 0 0 3.38 0.94 Freddy Garcia, FA SP, RP
SP 5.3 9 1 0 5.06 1.13 Max Scherzer, Det SP
SP 5.0 6 1 0 1.80 1.20 Hector Santiago, CWS RP, SP
SP 5.0 4 1 0 0.00 0.80 Ryan Dempster, FA SP
SP 5.0 4 0 0 10.80 2.60 Jarrod Parker, Oak SP
SP 5.0 9 0 0 5.40 1.80 J.A. Happ, Tor SP  DTD
SP 5.0 2 0 0 9.00 2.60 Kyle Drabek, Tor SP  DTD
SP 5.0 2 0 0 3.60 1.20 Christian Friedrich, Col SP  DTD
SP 5.0 3 0 0 12.60 1.20 Cole De Vries, Min RP, SP  DTD
SP 4.7 4 0 0 7.71 1.50 Chris Capuano, LAD SP
SP 4.0 2 0 0 9.00 1.50 Collin McHugh, NYM SP
SP 3.7 1 0 0 2.45 2.45 Barry Zito, SF SP
SP 1696.0 1367 128 0 2.99 1.18 The Fredsies

577.4 469 45 0 2.71 1.12 The Fredsies


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 8:09 pm 
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Oaktown, what are the nuances of your 'slightly different approach'? I get a little full of myself from time to time. I sniffed the mountain top briefly--you had it in plain sight! We could all learn from your experience!!


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:02 pm 
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What's up Fred? I was going to kind of keep it on the QT, but what the heck. I may not even be right. Anyway, if folks have the knowledge it levels the playing field, makes us play harder, and look for the next edge.

I just don’t think you’ll have the same success with your streamers next year. My understanding of the game and the numbers tell me you were a gambler on a hot streak and we'll see some regression to the mean in your streaming next year. But I might be wrong. If you're right and you and Rudy have secret streaming sauce, then 100% stream is the way to go (provided you're in a league without too many other streamers).

But I ran my numbers for expected performance of stream starters and after jiggering around, it looks to me that you want to still draft or pick up 3 pitchers that are going to outperform the streamers. I still want a pitcher 1, 2 and 3. It's basically a hedge so that if I hit a bad patch with my streamers, I can still compete in ERA and WHIP and if I thrive with streamers then I have a good shot at winning those categories because of the low rate stats contributed by my relievers. Also, 3 locked SP roster spots and 1 for streamers means I can carry 9 relievers.

The way I figured it out, rostering 9 relievers basically means you are starting 7.2 relievers on the average. 7.2 is a number I backed into by estimating the number of days I would have more than one start, days where I drop my last middle reliever to open up room for a DTD player or an extra DL guy and then adding back in for the last portion of the season where I’ve maxed out my GS. And when you take the kind of reliever you want to have, something like 3.5 wins, 65Ks, sub 3 era sub 1.15 Whip, you get a lot of good out of those 7.2. Taking the average reliever x 7.2 and the expected per start rates for 90 stream starts, it allows you to back into the numbers of what you need out of your 3 set starters in order to have winning numbers.

One of the many surprising things in your data was how poorly you fared with your relievers rate stats. Part of my strategy is to work the waiver wire very, very hard for closers, closers in waiting and very good middle to 7th inning guys. The middle to 7th inning guys are real value because they pitch a few more innings and they pitch in scenarios where it’s easier to pick up wins (and there is less competition for them). Good examples from last year: Wade Davis, Tim Collins, Sean Doolittle and so on. I think a big key is that you balance expected under performance from your stream with solid performance in your 3 regular starters plus lights out relief.

The thing that I feel most confident about and that you and I agree on is that Wins and Ks go arm in arm with innings pitched. Maxing those relievers gives you a big leg up in both categories. And because I feel I have that extra edge in Ks, I feel like I can carry Kyle Loshe or Tim Hudson or any of a host of guys who are either drafted late or not at all because of the K rate, but who are very strong contributors in the rate stats. This gives you a draft edge as you are probably drafting a pitcher in 4-6, 11-13 and any time after 15 you feel like getting a guy. Not as much as an edge as if you draft no starters, of course.


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:35 pm 
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Oaktown: starts with solid gold, "Anyway, if folks have the knowledge it levels the playing field, makes us play harder, and look for the next edge." And, keeps right on rollin'!

Razzer's, this is a guy that finished 6th overall in rcl, streamin'. Why not get your feet wet with the premium formula--draft 3 SP this year and enjoy the view from the top.

Steve, I love the way you think--calculated 7.2 relievers from 9 rostered. Yes, a 'lot of good out of those 7.2'.

I MAY be overly confident streaming all. It just seemed so easy last year. I will certainly put it to the test again. And, I think it wise for new streamers to follow your model instead of mine.

If I had done better with my hitting, I wouldn't be so driven to keep those bench spots open to bolster those hitters. I managed my hitters to oblivion last year. I went all upside last year drafting all strong 2nd half performers from 2011. Some did well, others tanked. It is tough for me, seeing that one could roster 10 of the top twelve 2nd half performers from 2012 (2012 player rater>Last 20 days>hitters yields players in order according to 'heat index'). Knowing that 3-yr stats out-perform the recent 2 and 1, I am resigned to targeting as many of this year's top player-rater hitters as I can get at the top of my draft (ignoring the 2nd half performers). Will see if they hold up, and if I have the patience to hang on to them!

Big Thank You for sharing! Good fortune this year, sir!!


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Wed Jan 30, 2013 10:36 pm 
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Oaktown: starts with solid gold, "Anyway, if folks have the knowledge it levels the playing field, makes us play harder, and look for the next edge." And, keeps right on rollin'!

Razzer's, this is a guy that finished 6th overall in rcl, streamin'. Why not get your feet wet with the premium formula--draft 3 SP this year and enjoy the view from the top.

Steve, I love the way you think--calculated 7.2 relievers from 9 rostered. Yes, a 'lot of good out of those 7.2'.

I MAY be overly confident streaming all. It just seemed so easy last year. I will certainly put it to the test again. And, I think it wise for new streamers to follow your model instead of mine.

If I had done better with my hitting, I wouldn't be so driven to keep those bench spots open to bolster those hitters. I managed my hitters to oblivion last year. I went all upside last year drafting all strong 2nd half performers from 2011. Some did well, others tanked. It is tough for me, seeing that one could roster 10 of the top twelve 2nd half performers from 2012 (2012 player rater>Last 20 days>hitters yields players in order according to 'heat index'). Knowing that 3-yr stats out-perform the recent 2 and 1, I am resigned to targeting as many of this year's top player-rater hitters as I can get at the top of my draft (ignoring the 2nd half performers). Will see if they hold up, and if I have the patience to hang on to them!

Big Thank You for sharing! Good fortune this year, sir!!


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:14 am 
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Those last 3 posts pretty much went over my head.

Is there any draft strategy regading how many top pitchers to take? Stop after 2 or so then concentrate on hitters/MR/CL?


7.2.....do what?

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12 Team / Yahoo! / Roto / Redraft / 1 DL Slot
Hitting: R / H / 2B / 3B / HR / RBI / SB / BB / AVG
Pitching: GS / W / L / SV / K / ERA / WHIP / RAPP / QS


C - Wilin Rosario
1B - Steve Pearce
2B - Alexi Amarista
3B - Evan Longoria
SS - Mookie Betts
OF1 - Carlos Gomez
OF2 - Alex Gordon
OF3 - Jorge Soler
UTIL - Avisail Garcia
UTIL - Nori Aoki
BN - Adam Lind


SP - Kershaw / Kluber / Wood / Cashner / Fiers / Streamers
RP - Melancon / Petricka / Casilla / Feliz / Quack
DL - Sanchez


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 Post subject: Re: Streaming: WHY it WORKS!
PostPosted: Thu Jan 31, 2013 8:59 am 
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This is some great stuff. I am also straining to wrap my mind around all this, but I am enjoying it. I am definitely leaning toward OakTown's methodology only because I am starting off with Verlander and Strasburg as keepers. So I guess I'll be looking toward getting another SP somewhere around rounds 10-12 to get a solid #3 pitcher.

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Keepers can be kept for 1 round ahead of draft round; the round moves up each year. Players listed with 2013 keeper value.

C - Wieters (18)
1B - Hosmer (22)
3B - Lawrie (21)
OF - Trout (24)

SP - Verlander (3), Strasburg (23)


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