Don't like players coming off of down years. Hitters were deemed Risky because their AB (At-Bats) dropped from over 460 AB to fewer than 340 AB in the following year. These were players who were out of the lineup for significant stretches—for ANY reason. The drops indicated that they had little chance of returning to form. This group includes studs, old guys set to retire, injuries, … Given that the group in whole only offers a 13% chance of return to previous year value, AND a 74% chance of getting only 58% of the previous year’s production, it isn’t worthwhile for me to cull this list for the freak gem. NOT ONE of these guys on my targeted draft.

Brett Gardner Yankees
Aubrey Huff Giants
Lance Berkman Cardinals
Jason Bartlett Padres
Hideki Matsui Rays
Carl Crawford Red Sox
Marlon Byrd - - -
Troy Tulowitzki Rockies
Jason Bay Mets
Johnny Damon Indians
Bobby Abreu - - -
Ryan Howard Phillies
Evan Longoria Rays
Jacoby Ellsbury Red Sox
Carlos Quentin Padres
Jayson Werth Nationals
Casey McGehee - - -
Adam Lind Blue Jays
Chase Utley Phillies
Chris Young Diamondbacks
David Ortiz Red Sox
Michael Cuddyer Rockies
Jose Bautista Blue Jays
Mike Napoli Rangers

It's a pretty arbitrary list...

Matsui retired

This concept stemmed from Rudy's original Risky Pitchers. I tracked the data for 3 years. Grey, you got bigger cajones than me. You may consider it 'arbitrary.' The standard remains the same every year. When the CONSISTENT results return 13% to previous year's performance (before the drop) and 74% return 58% of the previous year, well, that spells AVOID AT ALL COSTS to me. If one wants to stab at the 13% (given the pretty awful downside) go for it.

BTW: The first year, 2009, included Cargo and Hamilton, each high on 'rebound' lists.
Cargo dropped to 308 AB in 2008, making the list. He 'rebounded' with 278 AB in 2009.
Hamilton dropped to 336 AB, from 624. He 'rebounded' with 518 AB and 30 fewer RBI than 2008.

(qualified retirees at the top: "...old guys set to retire...")

Ahh. Next time I will read the whole message.

Only read the first sentence and looked at this list. Was shopping with wife and killed some time looking at the internet through my phone.

not to be a jerk, but I didn't have to look at three years of data to know not to draft these guys. It just makes sense. But I'm glad you did the work to back up my gut instincts...thats a good little gut, you get a treat now.

This was posted on Razz today: "You call Ellsbury a player with a “injury history” implying he is a risk again next year?
Both injuries were the result of huge, violent collisions, freak accidents. It’s not like they are nagging injuries, his body breaking down etc. They were violent collisions that could result in injury to the best athletes involved in them. So how does that get a guy labeled “injury prone”?

What is obvious to you, isn't always as obvious to others. Maybe the stats will help.

It's kinda the nature of the beast to want to find the gold in a miracle comeback. I have my own alluring 'prospects'. I TRY to limit those dalliances to lower in the draft, not take the huge risk at the top.

Cust Kayin'

I've been on the good and bad end of fishing for the comeback. And, true, at the right price many players are worth it. I'm not going to draft ellesbury as my number one outfielder, that would require me to do drugs that I just say no to now. But if he was my 2nd or 3rd OF I would take a stab at him. They say everything has a price, mine is $2.50, and if lots of people pass on him, then I would be down. Of course I would probably have to take a shot of whiskey right after. If I was to take him I would have to draft a good back up outfielder as insurance. I think the Red Sox as a whole have a lot of question marks with their line up, a new manager, a spotty staff that may have them out of games and hence take the air out of their bats. As a rule of thumb I try and stay away from most players coming off injury years or a collection of injury years like Longoria, who collects injuries like its his hobby.