Update: This analysis came from 'digging into' risky hitters research.
In December 2009 FanGraphs published:
http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index. ... bip-splits"And here are the batters with actual BABIPs falling well short of the XBABIP totals. These hitters could experience a bounce-back in 2010:"
Hey, if these guys did, in fact, bounce-back, then I want the list for 2011. Thought I’d take a look at how they really performed.
Just a quick review. BABIP is a measure of “luck”. xBABIP estimates “x”-pected luck. The difference then is the degree to which a player out/under-performs to the estimate. This article is saying that 58 players under-performed by at least -.20 (BABIP-xBABIP). The author is saying to expect their Batting Averages to rebound.
The results. Overall, not so hot. Of the recommended 56 (dropped the two DNPs) 27 improved their BA, 29 were worse. Dig deeper.
Of the top ten, NINE improved, ONE fell off. The cut-off was -.47. The ten were:
1Carlos Quentin (-.72).236>.247(BA)
2Jason Giambi (-.67).201>.244
3Garrett Atkins (-.62).226>.214,drop
4Jay Bruce (-.59).223>.281
5Geovany Soto (-.58).218>.280
6Hank Blalock (-.57).234>.254
7Jason Kendall (-.55).241>.256
8)Josh Willingham (-.50).260>.268
9)Adrian Gonzalez (-.49).277>.298
10Ryan Spilborghs (-.47).241>.279
The average BA improved from .236>.262. Solid results!
That leaves the remaining 46 players with a record of 19 bounce-back/27 lose-even-more.
Seemed like a lot just to identify 10 players who raised their BA, on average, to .262. Dig deeper.
Compared 2009 ESPN 5X5 player rater to 2010 (to measure impact beyond just BA). EIGHT of our top ten jumped up in the ratings. Nice! HOWEVER, only THREE ranked in the final 2010 top 200 (Gonzalez#44, Bruce#104, Quentin #181; notables: Kendall#455, Giambi#655, and Atkins 1194.) Again, the other 46 had a 19-27 gain-loss record.
So, if you see a similar list for 2011 ( below), you can’t really get hurt if you limit your selections to the ones with greater than -.45 differential. Not wise to get tempted by alluring names below that line (Rollins, Howard, K. Suzuki, C. Pena, Phillips, Arod, etc.) all got WORSE.
The thing is, when you see a guy like Pena with a 2009 .227 BA on a “could bounce-back” list, it is easy to succumb to the allure—not realizing he is more likely (19 to 27) to give you that 2010 .196 BA and player rater ranking of 316.
BTW, here’s your 2011 list of players with -.47 or greater BABIP differential, in descending order from largest diff, with x(pected)AVG.
Carlos Pena, .258
Casey Kotchman, .296
Tony Gwynn, .277
Aaron Hill, .273
Luis Valbuena, .254
Andruw Jones, .278
Jimmy Rollins, .305
Brendan Ryan, .277
Seth Smith, .292
Aaron Rowand, .278
Juan Pierre, .328
Cesar Izturis, .280
Jose Bautista, .298
Jose Lopez, .286
Shane Victorino, .303
Mike Napoli, .272
Adam Kennedy, .293
Mark Kotsay, .282
Edwin Encarnacion, .283
Alex Avila, .265
Juan Rivera, .294
Ben Zobrist, .278
Bobby Abreu, .291
Michael Brantley, .287
Yadier Molina, .305
Denard Span, .305
Hey, Carlos graduated to the top of the top group! When I see Bautista’s projected BA to jump from .260 to .298, it pales compared to Kotchman moving from .217 to .296 (which would match his career high).
2011 xBABIP/xAVG/xSLG/xOPS projections courtesy of (you can download the spreadsheet and the author gives directions for password in order for you to manipulate):
http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/upl ... P_2011.xls
