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 Post subject: Looking for an Edge--Game 1
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 11:55 am 
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Oaktown Steve commented that he is '...always looking for an edge.' Seemed like a great jumping off topic.

The way I think: Since I will not be drafting an SP (streaming), and consequently not locking up bench slots with SP, the bench slots are available to stream hitting and pitching.

Game 1 yields a perfect op to jump in front my league (not in one yet, but plan for RCL). TEX@HOU showcases MLB with the first game--Sunday, March 31. The VERY EARLY matchup looks like this:
GM1: Darvish vs. Norris
Normally, I would not expect to find a streamable SP on Day 1. However, currently, the lowest draft position I find for Norris is #263 at MDC. Bet you didn't recollect that he opened the season last year with a 7IP, 4-hit W home vs. COL. He won EIGHT of his first NINE, including wins over WAS and STL and TWO over MIL. A no-brainer, right?

NOT-SO-QUICK: I see SON burying him due to the formula based, in part, on season FIP,WHIP, etc. Will have to weigh his start last year against his overall marginal skills. If he looks strong this spring, he is my likely:
Streamer #1--Norris,HOU,home vs. TEX

We aren't done yet: Still have TWO available bench slots. None of the rest of the pitchers on either side sports streamable periphs. What about HITTERS?

Here's the two best over the first 3 games, TEX@HOU:
Justin Maxwell,HOU, current ADP around 275. in 2012: vs. #1Darvish, 2 for 3 with 1 HR; vs. #2Holland, 1 for 2 with 1 HR.
David Murphy,TEX, with a current ADP around 225 he probably doesn't fall far enough to get streamed. vs.#2Harrell, 2 for 6 with 1 HR; vs. #3Lyles, 3 for 4 with 1 HR.

SUMMARY: Stream:
Su, March 31: Norris(?) and Maxwell
Tu, Ap2 (game 2 of the series): Maxwell and Murphy (if he falls)

Other possibles gm1:
Moreland, TEX, .468 SLG vs. right, 290-ish ADP
F.Martinex, HOU, .514 SLG vs. right, 350 ADP

Castro, HOU, .458 SLG vs. right, 330 ADP
Wallace, HOU, .425 SLG vs. right, 360 ADP
(pass on Pena, Soto, L.Martin, and J.D. Martinez)

Just put this on your watch list and see how the spring swirls. There will be plenty more ops for GM2's, Mo, April 1. Of course, the fools' joke is on you if you don't stream SP--your available slots will be locked up by those must-haves, and these first, of daily, ops will float right by you. :D


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 Post subject: Re: Looking for an Edge--Game 1
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 12:48 pm 
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I think it's worth a play. A tiny edge is still an edge.

Question for you, I didn't play RCL but I got the impression that there was a long strategy discussion and the introduction of the Stream-o-Nator. Do you get the feeling that there will be a lot of folks streaming pitching this year? I've already seen several comments to that effect.


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 Post subject: Re: Looking for an Edge--Game 1
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 1:13 pm 
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I certainly will be promoting it. Look for a post on Razz soon.

My sense is that few will submerge themselves. More a wade-in. The interest you saw last season, I think, was a lot to do with end of season opportunities (originally drafted SP by the wayside). A few might give it a 'valiant' effort by drafting a scary, only 4 SP, leaving room to test the concept this year. More will follow.

I am convinced it will win the day in an ESPN/RCL format. Finished overall #37 last year in overall pitching (of 576 teams)--in the league with the most competitive league index. Learned a little. Will be better this year.

A few managers dipped in late last year. Again, ops didn't dry up--just more available SP.

I reached my 179 GS (of total 180 limit) on Aug. 25, so 220+ GS reasonably attainable.


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 Post subject: Re: Looking for an Edge--Game 1
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 2:46 pm 
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I finished 6th overall the one year I played and won my league. There is no doubt in my mind that streaming pitchers is the optimal play...unless you find yourself in a league with 3+ folks who are also streaming pitchers. I think you'll have to look at the draft and if starting pitching is falling, falling, falling then you know your're missing bargains and you know you've got a bunch of streamers queuing up. Adjustments might need to be made.

I've written about how I think the RCL pitching streaming should be executed, but I won't recapitulate here. Already gave the secret out once.


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 Post subject: Re: Looking for an Edge--Game 1
PostPosted: Tue Jan 22, 2013 4:24 pm 
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Ha! Walking, talking (well, maybe you aren't talking :) ) living proof. I thought I was breaking new ground, beating my brains out to prove the 'theory'. Sad that I missed your treatise. Would love to read it. Thought about posting my email for you to forward it to, but I am a risky source to out you!

It is enough to know that it has worked. Thank you! I will sleep soundly tonight.


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