Forgot to mention that 1) this is for 7/19 and 2) He surrendered 14 ER @COL and @TEX, so that pretty much accounts for his terrible road numbers.

see top for Tilman stream.

An Edsie! Way to dig deeper. That AWAY split had me shelve him. But, you resolved it: @COL, @TEX. He had a 1.99 ERA at home, which isn't that easy to do @HOU. I don't like the number of BB, but @SD let's hope he is a little more confident and just brings it. STREAM! REALLY NICE FIND!

Okay, I'm sorry to sound stupid. I'm trying to decipher your lead post. Whom are you streaming for 7/17? I can't tell.

McAllister with a W and a QS. Should've stayed with the formula and stayed away from the gut feeling re: Tillman.

Fred, between your recent guide and the advice here on the forum, I have to thank you. You truly are the yeoman of streaming analysis!

This is the first year I've attempted to stream starts. Up until now I've been using my gut more than statistical rigor to make decisions. Thanks for the excuse to add another 40 minutes to my already ballooning daily FB time. It's like an investment! Accruing prurient interest!

Anywho, the Reds offense without Votto will be much less formidable. What does that do to match-ups against them? Looking at Marco Estrada's start at Cini on Friday, for example, we see a team ranked 18th vs righties and 10th at home in OPS. Red-s flag! But Estrada is 1-1 lifetime against the Reds, with a 3.21 ERA overall in 14IP and 1.80 ERA in 5IP at Great American. His O-Swing% is 32.9 this year with a murderous 10.48 K/9.

Normally, the park factor alone would steer me away from this start. But outside of Votto, only Bruce and Phillips have hit well off Estrada in the past, and only the latter has been hitting well of late. So, all that said, Marco Estrada... viable stream or like my last one-night stand: hauntingly regretful?

I did the same thing and started McAllister and Tillman and think the lesson there is that Tillman just didn't have the recent track record to justify it, even if he has the weak matchup and decent pedigree.

I must say that I have in the past utilized streaming on occasion by picking up the occasional hodgepadre or decent starter with a weak matchup in a good park but will probably do a bit more of it since my starters have been so unreliable (I'm talking to you Mr. Lester). We have an innings limit that is relatively low but it should allow me to be more choosy when I trot out my regular starters. Especially in weeks like this one where my typical guys have some questionable matchups. It allowed me to sit Lester vs. the Yanks this last weekend and instead go with Richards and Griffin and end up with a lot better stats than what Jonny boy would have gotten me. I streamed those two last night since Latos this week vs. AZ at home is a touch risky after he got roughed up a bit last time out. He's been a better pitcher on the road than at home so will definitely be more choosy whom I play him against. I'm not ready to do the extensive streaming strategy but will definitely use it in conjunction with my starters/relievers. It is always easier to find good pitching off of the WW than it is to find good hitting and one should definitely take advantage of that if one can.

Vogelsong @ ATL?

So Niese was dropped in my league after his last start, I am trying to apply your system to see if he is a start @ WAS tonight...

WAS:
21st home/ 14th vs LHP


Niese:
33% o-Swing
away ERA 3.38
night ERA 5.08
vs WAS ERA 1.46 (2011)
7 ER in 7 IP vs CHC last outing

with no heads up matches yet this year, I grabbed 2011 stats and they look good. Problem (or problems) is, he got rocked last outing by a crappy team, WAS is 14th in OPS vs LHP, and Niese's night ERA is bad.

So would you recommend a SIT?

and PS, where do I find SIERA on fangraphs?

Thank you so much!

Niese: 2012 SIERA 3.66. 30-day SIERA 4.07. FYI, 30-day O-Swing is at 36.1%.

I'm certainly not the expert on this, but what I've read from Fred, the point is to avoid risk, not just minimize it. And even one or two red flags (WASH OPS 11th vs LHP, rocked in last outing) would indicate risk.