@ Fred, superb results for your picks last night! McDonald crapped all over me in his start @ MIL. But it wasn't cuz he was hit hard, he just couldn't throw strikes, so he likely would've crapped out anywhere, even @SD. Well, watching the game, the ump wasn't calling his low curves as strikes, with many of them showing up in the zone on FX ... but those are the breaks. I will definitely NOT start him @COL.

Fister sonuvabenched me, and I imagine lots of people, @ BAL. Thankfully I started Holland @SEA. It's really tough not having the ability to stream (2 waiver picks left, weekly lineups). Sunday I have Harrison @ SEA, Garza home vs AZ, and Hamels @ COL. You would have approved of only the first one I think and been borderline on Garza and no on Hamels.

Next week I am running out Anibal @CHC and @PIT, Shark home vs MIA (you would approve I think), Hamels @SF, Kershaw home vs PHI, and then I have to pick two of Harrison @LAA, Holland @LAA, Fister home vs LAA, Garza @StL, Lynn @MIL and home vs CHC. I am thinking the two have to come from the first three. But LAA ranks high in all matchups, and your system wouldn't dare a start versus them. In my situation I have to pick at least one and likely two ... ouch! WWFD? What would Fred do?

Harrison: has given up 7 ER in 12.2 IP vs. LAA; the one team that could have his number. Your gamble.

Holland: MIN and SEA got 11 ER against him in his last 2 at home. KIWI (kinda is what is)

Fister Schmister. won't waste the time.

Garza@STL: #3/#4. Opponents don't get much stronger than this. SIT

Lynn: gave up 17 ER in 15.1 IP in his 3 previous to his last one good outing of the four. Are there words?

I feel for you man. This is the CLASSIC CASE for STREAMING. You are stuck with a gaggle of 'name' pitchers in bad matchups.

Do what you gotta do.

Guys: I am pinched for time finding streamers; so it would really help if you can apply the checks to your 100%-ers. Cust Kayin'

Sorry about the De Vries "tip" Fred. Seems like I may not have the touch for this streamer picking, after all.

I'm going to run Monday's starters through my process and I'll post what I come up with. Be interesting to see if it's in line with what you're thinking.

devries not on you. passed my tests. no worries. email me at fred_barker@comcast.net. I just emailed Rudy some of the tips razzers are coming up with and would like to cc: you on that stuff. Am excited that you and Rudy making progress on this!

Okay, here are the ones that come back as "CHECK"- note, my preliminary auto-process now includes park factor (negative is auto-NO), SP's O-swing% (less than 29% is auto-NO), and opponent's OPS rank (less than 15 is auto-NO), so I don't look for those things in my CHECK process:

Zach McAllister - either a QS or dangerously close to a QS in every one of his last 7 starts, 0 ER (4 runs) heads up, TB is 25th OPS vs RHP and 27th at home, looks good to me

Edwin Jackson - 4 ER in 5.2 and torched @COL in last two starts but 7 straight QS prior to that, 1 ER (2 runs) in 6.2 heads up, MIA is 24th OPS vs RHP and 17th at home, looks good to me

Chris Tillman - only one start this season (a good one, but still), decent heads up in past three years, MIN is 23rd vs RHP, he's a bit of a gamble

Scott Diamond - 5 of last 7 starts were QS, no heads up, BAL is 11th OPS vs LHP, I'd avoid

J.A. Happ - torched in 2 of his last 5 starts (others were all QS), good heads up past three years, SD is 27th vs LHP, he's a bit of a gamble

Joe Blanton - has given up 5+ ER in 7 of his past 10 starts, no thank you

Chris Capuano - 4 QS in past 5 starts (non-QS was @ARI), 4 ER in 5 IP heads up, PHI is 19th vs LHP, he's a bit of a gamble

McAllister, yes, already id'd as a STREAM.

Jackson, not only the blowout @COl but the 4ER to SF in 5.2 HOME.

You have expanded the pool from weak #20+ to include average #16-#20. I have MIA with #17 and #16. Wouldn't pass my test. Additionally, Eddy pointing at SIERA as add-to, or replace of, 0-Swing%. Just looked at definition on fangraphs. definitely looks like it might be telling. Jackson's SIERA is 4.15, near Below Average. I'd sit this type until we can get a more positive read.

The others all marginal which means SIT.

Remember this stuff VERY dependent on schedule. If SEA/OAK/SD away and COL/CIN/TEX/NYA/BOS home, then very few ops that week. This week looks a little thin. Other weeks will be abundant.

Yeah, I see what you mean about the cutoff needing to be 20th rather than 15th.

What would be the SIERA cutoff?

#17 and #16 for which splits? I see them as #24 vs RHP and #17 @ home.

Good catch, my bad on the splits. You got 'em right. Part of the problem with looking everything up by hand!

fangraphs list 3.75 or less as above average for siera. seems a good place to start. am looking into HR/FB, which I can get via custom report home/away.
8.5 or less rates above average for siera.


HR/FB-siera
10.5-3.96 MCALLISTER('R)
13.0-4.09 RICHARD(L)
11.1-3.96 MASTERSON('R)
15.0-3.50 VILLANUEVA('R)

A learning curve here. Villanueva with the worst HR/FB but best SIERA...?

Okay, thought I might give you a peek at what I'm up to right now... explanation below the pic:



First step is to paste in the MLB.com scheduled matchups (first two columns). The spreadsheet then pulls the following information:

- park factor
- SP's O-Swing%
- SP's SIERA
- opponent's OPS rank overall, at home, away, vs. LHP, an vs. RHP (last two are hidden)

If any of the following criteria are met, "NO" appears in the 3rd column:

- bad park factor
- O-Swing below 29%
- SIERA below 3.75
- opponent's OPS rank is better than 20th overall or home/away (whichever is applicable)

If none of those criteria are met, "CHECK" will appear in the 3rd column (see J.A. Happ). At this point, I will pull up the info for any SP with "CHECK" next to them and first see if he is owned. If he is, I can put an "x" in the last column and the 3rd column will change to "NO".

If he's unowned, I'll look at his recent history. If I don't like it, I can put an "x" in the last column to change his status to "NO" (even though he isn't owned).

If I'm cool with his recent history, I can then drop "L" or "R" (whichever he pitches with) in the 2nd column right next to his name (see J.A. Happ again). This will grab the appropriate opponent OPS rank vs. LHP/RHP and fill in that field. If that rank is better than 20th, the 3rd column will change to "NO." Otherwise, I've got a good streamer and just need to go research more in depth stuff if I want (e.g. heads up history).